Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Fantasy Golf: The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Preview

If you made a 1-10 scale for dads based on TV characters with a 10 being a supportive and motivational Mike Brady type and a 1 being Frank Constanza, I think most of us would reasonably aspire to hit the 7-8 range. Coaching little league teams, suffering through school holiday shows and reading, rereading and re-rereading the same bedtime stories will get you to a solid 5-6 but, if you really want to separate yourself from the field, you need to go a little above and beyond.

One way to gain extra credit in a hurry is to help with homework and not just a couple middle school math problems. No you gotta roll-up your sleeves and get deep into an art project or, for the truly ambitious, get involved with a research paper. But be prepared to sacrifice a piece of your soul in the process because sitting there at midnight on the eve of the due date trying to get a weary teenager to clearly delineate his/her premise is not for the faint of heart. 

Which brings me to tonight as I am alternately editing a paper about Fyodor Dostoyevsky and writing about the golfing prospects of Thomas Detry while trying not to confuse the Extraordinary Man Theory with the Stroked Gained Tee to Green Theory. Considering it's been thirty-five years since I took Russian literature and I haven't made a decent golf pick since September, it's a toss-up as to which I am less qualified to do right now but hey, that never stopped me before. 

WORK EXCHANGE OF THE WEEK

Jane from the payroll department checks-in this week.

Jane: The daughter of our employee has a question about her dad's tax forms.

Me: What's her question?

Jane: She wants to know if they can be sent to her.

Me. She wants them sent to her and not her dad?

Jane: Yes . . . does she need to send us something?

Me: Why wouldn't we just send the forms to her dad?

Jane: Oh he's dead. I guess I should've mentioned that.

Me: Seems relevant.

GOLF ANALYSIS

There's no point in sugar coating it. As noted above, the FGR is off to a disastrous start in 2025 but, as memory serves, last season started in much the same way before Jason Day's T6 at this event started to turn the tide. 

We've got seventeen of the top twenty players in the world teeing it up at Pebble Beach, et al. but Ludvig Aberg is clearly the guy. He would've won it last year if it hadn't been shortened to 54 holes and he was rolling at Torrey Pines last week before he came down with what we in Maryland call the revenge of the angry crab. (We don't really call it that . . . but we should).  

The rest of the picks are the standard locks for this event which definitely has its favorites who can tolerate the literal clown show nature of the format. It's an interesting mix of players who like to pal around with country singers and C-List celebrities along with the sons of rich guys (Maverick McNealy) and those who like to suck-up to them (Patrick Cantlay). It's a glad-handers heaven which is why I'm avoiding Rory Milroy and Collin Morikawa. 

Place

Player

Odds

Winner

Ludvig Aberg

+1800

Top 5

Jason Day

+550

Top 10

Beau Hossler

+400

Top 10

Thomas Detry

+500

Top 20

Mark Hubbard

+280


There are a lot of good options for that top twenty pick this week including Justin Rose, Chris Kirk and even Brendon Todd but Mark Hubbard is the FGR's go to lovable longshot so he gets the nod.

One and Done Pick: Ludvig Aberg
Desperate times call for 
a tall cool Swede.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jason Day

Sleeper Pick: Denny McCarthy

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Ludvig Aberg

$9,900

Justin Thomas

$9,800

Patrick Cantlay

$9,400

Jason Day

$8,900

Keegan Bradley

$8,500

Maverick McNealy

$8,000

Beau Hossler

$7,600

Thomas Detry

$7,400

Denny McCarthy

$7,000

Mark Hubbard

$6,700


We'll be seeing the NFL playoff picks endeavor through to the end with a Super Bowl preview next week but, after last Sunday night, I think we all know how that's going to turn out.

                                       THE ANY REMAINING SHRED OF 
                                   CREDIBILITY THE NFL HAD MEMORIAL
                                    HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

The upside of making this a signature event is obviously the elevated field but that produces a slew of DNP's on the chart because they dropped about sixty of the regular tour schmos like Kevin Streelman and Joel Dahmen. Tom Hoge will most likely be the guy I regret not picking if you find wagering value in that . . . which you probably should. 

 

DK Price

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Scottie Scheffler

$11,900

T6

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Rory McIlroy

$10,700

T66

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Collin Morikawa

$10,200

T14

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ludvig Aberg

$9,900

2nd

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Justin Thomas

$9,800

T6

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$9,600

T71

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,400

T11

DNP

T4

T3

T11

Sam Burns

$9,200

10th

DNP

DNP

T39

DNP

Tommy Fleetwood

$9,100

T31

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sungjae Im

$9,000

T66

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jason Day

$8,900

T6

DNP

T24

T7

4th

Viktor Hovland

$8,800

T58

T13

DNP

DNP

T38

Corey Conners

$8,700

T31

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Wyndham Clark

$8,600

1st

DNP

MC

DNP

T18

Keegan Bradley

$8,500

T11

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Will Zalatoris

$8,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

T55

DNP

Taylor Pendrith

$8,300

DNP

T7

T49

DNP

DNP

Tony Finau

$8,200

T47

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Maverick McNealy

$8,100

T39

W/D

T33

2nd

T5

Sepp Straka

$8,000

T26

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Shane Lowry

$8,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$7,900

T39

T63

2nd

T3

T9

Russell Henley

$7,900

T58

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Max Greyserman

$7,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tom Kim

$7,800

T31

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Robert Macintryre

$7,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sahith Theegala

$7,700

T20

DNP

T65

DNP

DNP

Adam Scott

$7,600

T20

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Beau Hossler

$7,600

T14

T11

3rd

T47

T38

Byeong Hun An

$7,500

T31

T37

DNP

DNP

DNP

Harris English

$7,500

76th

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Rasmus Hojgaard

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

J.T. Poston

$7,400

T20

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Max Homa

$7,400

T66

DNP

DNP

T7

T14

Thomas Detry

$7,400

T4

T37

DNP

DNP

DNP

Akshay Bhatia

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

T30

DNP

Harry Hall

$7,300

DNP

T34

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tom Hoge

$7,300

T6

T48

1st

12th

T60

Davis Thompson

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

J.J. Spaun

$7,200

T54

DNP

T16

MC

MC

Nick Taylor

$7,200

T71

T20

T14

T39

1st

Cameron Young

$7,100

70th

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Fitzpatrick

$7,100

T58

MC

T6

DNP

T60

Si Woo Kim

$7,100

T14

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

Cam Davis

$7,000

T20

DNP

DNP

T14

T38

Denny McCarthy

$7,000

T26

T4

T12

MC

DNP

Min Woo Lee

$7,000

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

DNP

Aaron Rai

$6,900

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Keith Mitchell

$6,900

T54

T4

T12

MC

T32

Rickie Fowler

$6,900

T47

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

Eric Cole

$6,800

T14

T15

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nick Dunlap

$6,800

80th

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Samuel Stevens

$6,800

DNP

T34

DNP

DNP

DNP

Andrew Novak

$6,700

DNP

T20

MC

DNP

DNP

Mark Hubbard

$6,700

T4

T20

T33

T55

MC

Stephan Jaeger

$6,700

T71

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Austin Eckroat

$6,600

DNP

MC

T65

DNP

DNP

Ben Griffin

$6,600

T58

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Billy Horschel

$6,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brian Harman

$6,500

T54

DNP

MC

T39

DNP

Gary Woodland

$6,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nico Echavarria

$6,500

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

C. Bezuidenhout

$6,400

T20

DNP

T14

DNP

DNP

Jhonattan Vegas

$6,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

T50

DNP

Taylor Moore

$6,400

T47

T15

T16

DNP

DNP

Chris Kirk

$6,300

T26

DNP

MC

T16

MC

Doug Ghim

$6,300

DNP

W/D

DNP

T21

MC

Justin Rose

$6,300

T11

1st

62nd

DNP

DNP

Justin Lower

$6,200

DNP

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Lee Hodges

$6,200

T58

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Mackenzie Hughes

$6,200

T71

DNP

T16

DNP

MC

Seamus Power

$6,200

T31

T15

T9

MC

T38

Erik Van Rooyen

$6,100

T20

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Lucas Glover

$6,100

T58

MC

MC

DNP

T50

Matthieu Pavon

$6,100

3rd

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$6,100

79th

DNP

MC

MC

MC

Adam Hadwin

$6,000

T39

DNP

T16

DNP

MC

Brendon Todd

$6,000

T58

T2

T16

DNP

DNP

Jake Knapp

$6,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Yu

$6,000

T58

T7

DNP

DNP

DNP


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