Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Fantasy Golf: Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview

You know the boys on tour are jonesing to play when you still get a "B-" level field to travel to Detroit in the middle of a pandemic. Of course we Baltimoreans love Detroit because we always get to be on the same top ten lists for cool things like, you know, revitalized waterfronts, iconic baseball managers and crime drama plots but the Motor City can be a tough sell as a travel destination even when you're not worried about catching a deadly virus from the last guy who breathed on the flagstick.

We'll get to the picks based on the limited information at our disposal as last year was the first time the Tour stopped at Detroit Country Club and some guy named Nate Lashley took a four day break from being the front man for a One Direction cover band to smoke a mediocre field by 6 shots. But first, this . . .  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I think we could all use some Chris Farley right now.


SOCIALLY DISTANCED FROM EXPERTISE GOLF ANALYSIS 

Let's start with who I'm not picking and that's the three favorites Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson and Tyrrell Hatton. I have absolutely no reason for this other than I think this is a week for the unheralded after three straight of relative chalk at the top. I hope I'm wrong and Bryson bombs his way into the top five but that's just how PGA Tour golf works. Some Sundays it ends-up being little more than a nap inducing sound machine.   

We do need at least couple high priced picks so let's see how some of the more prominent names did here last year. Patrick Reed and Brandt Snedeker finished T5th, Ben An, Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland finished T13th and Billy Horschel finished T17th. Of those guys, Reed and Hovland are playing the best golf (the sport in question) so let's build around them. Also, what the world needs more than anything right now is a ray of hope and who better to provide that than Patrick Reed?

Feels like one of Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler or Sungjae Im is going to have a big week. I'm going with Finau because he's more due for a second PGA Tour win than anyone since . . . well ever. I can't honestly think of another U.S. Ryder Cup player with only one win. I mean even Vaughn Taylor has three and Wiffy Cox had nine for chrissakes. 

Rory Sabbatini finished T3rd here last year, has been playing well lately and a Reed-Sabbatini 1-2 finish this week would be the most pandemicky thing ever. Lucas Glover, Brendon Todd and Brian Stuard are never bad choices even if picking them feels like eating toasted Styrofoam. And Mark Hubbard, Nate Lashley and Wesley Bryan could walk through your kitchen wearing name tags right now and you still wouldn't know who they are but again, this feels a week when that will describe most of the leaderboard. 

Have a great long weekend watching your amateur pyrotechnic starved friends blow their fingers off! (My readers will be the ones saying "saw that coming" and dialing 911). 

One and Done Pick: Patrick Reed
I mean seriously. Is there a better
nickname in the history of sports
than the "Motor City Cobra"?


Other Guy I'd Pick: Viktor Hovland

Sleeper Pick: Wesley Bryan

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Patrick Reed
$10,500
Viktor Hovland
$10,000
Tony Finau
$9,300
Rory Sabbatini
$8,800
Lucas Glover
$8,400
Brendon Todd
$7,800
Brian Stuard
$7,400
Mark Hubbard
$7,300
Nate Lashley
$6,600
Wesley Bryan
$6,500

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Fantasy Golf: Travelers Championship Preview

I'm supposed to be playing golf and drinking Bud Lights and laughing with three friends right now about how we get to drink and play golf on a Tuesday afternoon but unfortunately this is Maryland in June and that means rain. A shit ton of it. We're talking get your ass to higher ground rain. And it's not even raining now nor is it supposed to for the next few hours but we got so much goddamn rain over the last few days that you can't take a golf cart out and this was gonna be a golf cart round if you know what I mean (and I think you do) so we cancelled it.

"I love the smell of wet dog in the
morning. You know that smell. That
wet fur smell. Smells like Maryland."
So now I'm sitting here in my dining room. Not drinking Bud Light. Writing this shit. For you wonderful people. Genuinely wondering if there are any majors this year. And when they are. And where. And whether Brooks Koepka will let someone else win one of them. Preferably Rory. Not Sabbatini. And how Jason Day and Jordan Spieth are ranked behind Sung Kang. And why I find myself rooting for Bryson DeChambeau. And whether that's a recognized symptom of COVID-19. And why stupid people on TV don't look it up before they ask what the "19" means. So many questions. 

But first, this . . .  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

The saddest part of this comparison was that it reminded me that I've seen The Wiggles in concert four times which is one more time than I've seen The Who, The Grateful Dead and The Stones and four more times than I've seen The Little River Band.

JILTED TUESDAY GOLFER ANALYSIS 

The two most important things you need to know this week are that (1) Bubba Watson has won here three times, and (2) Paul Casey has finished top five in four of the last five years with a T17 as his only miss. Bubba seems reasonably engaged with his game right now so he feels like a safe bet and you can't argue with Casey's consistency so consider them a couple of nice building blocks. 

I wrestled with my top guy between Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas both of whom are playing well and I could absolutely see Thomas shooting a 59 on what could be a damp track while still finishing behind DeChambeau. Patrick Cantlay is making his post-pandemic shutdown debut but he was playing well before and has a 60 on this course so he gets the nod over Xander Schauffele and Dustin Johnson though DJ is going to overpower a course for a win here in the next few weeks leading-up to the WGC FedEx St. Jude where he should be the favorite. 

The middle picks are pretty much just guys who make sense. Sungjae Im is always a top five waiting to happen, Jason Day is undervalued and Joaquin Niemann finished T5 last week. Always jump on Joaquin when he shows a spark though not literally because he weighs 78 pounds. Heyooo . . . dumb little guy joke alert!

The bottom three are safe picks based on the solid history Keegan Bradley and Kevin Streelman have at the Travelers and the fact that for some reason I need to pick Patrick Rodgers at least once a month. I swear that guy has a top five at every tournament on tour that suckers me in. If he doesn't do it for you, take a flyer on Matthew Wolff or Carlos Ortiz in that price range. Or Ryan Moore if you're into that kind of torture. 

Apparently this picture is NOT from 2013 when
Bubba hit it in the water on No. 16, blamed his
caddie for picking the wrong club (who blames
a caddie?...don't answer that) and finished 4th.
One and Done Pick: Paul Casey

Other Guy I'd Pick: Bubba Watson 


Best Value: Jason Day

Sleeper Pick: Kevin Streelman 


DraftKings Top Ten Values


Bryson DeChambeau
$11,000
Patrick Cantlay
$9,800
Paul Casey
$8,900
Bubba Watson
$8,800
Sungjae Im
$8,600
Joaquin Niemann
$7,900
Jason Day
$7,500
Keegan Bradley
$7,400
Kevin Streelman
$7,100
Patrick Rodgers
$6,900

Other intriguing options not aforementioned herein based on past performance would include Marc Leishman who won here in 2012, Brian Harman who is basically Paul Casey Light on this course and Justin Thomas who I still contend is the best player in the world even if he doesn't want to believe me. 

                 THE OH NO KIDS MURRAY WIGGLE IS HAMMERED ON 
                   STAGE AGAIN HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Rory McIlroy
$11,200
DNP
T12
T17
DNP
DNP
Bryson DeChambeau
$11,000
T8
T9
T26
T47
DNP
Justin Thomas
$10,800
T36
T56
MC
T3
MC
Webb Simpson
$10,500
DNP
MC
T8
T34
DNP
Jon Rahm
$10,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
T64
Brooks Koepka
$10,000
T57
T19
DNP
T9
DNP
Patrick Cantlay
$9,800
T15
T15
DNP
DNP
DNP
Xander Schauffele
$9,600
DNP
MC
T14
DNP
DNP
Dustin Johnson
$9,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Justin Rose
$9,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Collin Morikawa
$9,100
T36
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Abraham Ancer
$9,000
T8
MC
MC
T56
DNP
Paul Casey
$8,900
T5
T2
T5
T17
2nd
Bubba Watson
$8,800
T54
1st
MC
T25
1st
Patrick Reed
$8,700
T30
MC
T5
T11
MC
Sungjae Im
$8,600
T21
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Sergio Garcia
$8,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jordan Spieth
$8,400
MC
T42
1st
DNP
DNP
Tony Finau
$8,200
MC
DNP
T17
T25
T25
Matthew Fitzpatrick
$8,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Marc Leishman
$8,000
T21
MC
T17
T9
T39
J.T. Poston
$7,900
MC
MC
MC
DNP
DNP
Joaquin Niemann
$7,900
T5
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Ian Poulter
$7,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Viktor Hovland
$7,800
T54
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Joel Dahmen
$7,700
T43
MC
T62
DNP
DNP
Kevin Kisner
$7,700
T15
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brian Harman
$7,600
T8
T6
T35
MC
3rd
Scottie Scheffler
$7,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Corey Connors
$7,500
DNP
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jason Day
$7,500
T8
T12
MC
DNP
DNP
Jason Kokrak
$7,400
MC
MC
T26
DNP
T48
Keegan Bradley
$7,400
T2
T47
T8
T25
T39
Billy Horschel
$7,300
DNP
MC
DNP
DNP
T25
Chez Reavie
$7,300
1st
MC
T43
T47
T25
Ryan Palmer
$7,300
DNP
MC
T53
DNP
DNP
Brandt Snedeker
$7,200
T43
MC
T14
DNP
T10
Byeon Hun An
$7,200
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Louis Oosthuizen
$7,200
T36
DNP
DNP
T17
MC
Dylan Fritelli
$7,100
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Harold Varner, III
$7,100
T21
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Na
$7,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
Kevin Streelman
$7,100
T15
T33
T8
MC
MC
Shane Lowry
$7,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
DNP
Charley Hoffman
$7,000
MC
T15
T3
T25
DNP
Jim Furyk
$7,000
DNP
MC
T26
T5
DNP
Max Homa
$7,000
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
Bud Cauley
$6,900
MC
DNP
T35
T70
DNP
Danny Lee
$6,900
MC
T15
T3
DNP
T25
Patrick Rodgers
$6,900
DNP
T26
T35
T3
T39
Phil Mickelson
$6,900
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Ryan Moore
$6,900
T15
MC
DNP
T17
DNP
Carlos Ortiz
$6,800
MC
DNP
DNP
T34
DNP
Matthew Wolff
$6,800
T80
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Russell Knox
$6,700
T21
T38
T62
1st
W/D
Zach Johnson
$6,700
DNP
T19
MC
T47
6th
Brendan Steele
$6,600
T21
MC
T14
T17
T25
Kevin Tway
$6,500
T5
T6
T43
DNP
DNP
Vaughn Taylor
$6,500
4th
T47
T57
T38
DNP
C.T. Pan
$6,400
T36
MC
T8
DNP
DNP

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com