Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Fantasy Golf: The Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

A morbid sense of curiosity about the current state of LIV Golf that didn't extend far enough for me to actually watch them play did, however, lead me to click on their website for the first time following the opening "event" of the season. Here is what I learned:
  • Charles Howell, III, who's claim to fame on the PGA Tour was not winning, won by four shots. Good for Chucky Triple Sticks who was always a favorite of the FGR. 
  • Dustin Johnson who was the #1 ranked player in the world as recently as July of 2021 lost by 20 shots after carding what appears from his seven bogeys and a double to have been a somewhat uninspired final round 78.  
  • LIV's rampant pillaging of the PGA Tour's best continues unchecked with the recent acquisitions of Brendan Steele, Dean Burmester and Danny Lee. I mean that's like holding-up a bank to steal two staplers and the coffee pot.  
The next LIV event is at some course called the Gallery Club in Tuscon Arizona and for $18,000 you can still buy a full group in the pro am. It would stretch the FGR budget but I haven't ruled it out. You get to play with two different pros and, if they could guarantee me Patrick Reed and the Tweet of the Week star, I don't know. Pretty damn tempting.   

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Frankly Twitter kind of sucked this week so I'm going with my own and I will say that, despite my recommendation that you watch this video with the sound off, I would also advise you to watch it with the sound on because the buffoonery of Bryson DeChambeau is really the gift that keeps on giving.


GOLF ANALYSIS

Everything is telling me to pull the trigger on Rory this week. I mean it's either gonna happen here, The Players or the British Open at Royal Liverpool where he won it in 2014. And you know that I am nothing if not a sentimental fool so I have to believe that the Claret Jug is his this year after it was so mercilessly ripped from his grasp at St. Andrews. 

The other logical pick is defending champion Scottie Scheffler but he's finished top ten in six of his last ten majors including a win at the Masters and a T2 the U.S. Open just last year. How do you not save him for Augusta? Or Oak Hill? (Note that I applied similar logic last year only to watch him miss the cut at Southern Hills so proceed accordingly). 

I've already used Jon Rahm (and most likely so have you) so in my somewhat expert opinion, that leaves three viable options . . . Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton. Not to keep getting caught-up in saving guys for majors but Max is probably the best California golfer on the planet right now and the U.S. Open is in Los Angeles. Fuck it. Let's pencil Fitzpatrick in at The Players while we're at it which leaves Hatton who won here in 2020 and tied for 2nd last year. Also, he's a huge FGR favorite for obvious reasons and this is the best spot for him.

Inarguably the best nickname in golf right now is "Cashmere" Keith Mitchell who has been on a roll lately and went T5-T6 at Bay Hill a few years ago. He's a lock in the middle tier. Rickie Fowler doesn't inspire quite the same level of confidence but his recent run of T11-T10-T20 feels like a real resurgence. 

And speaking of resurgence, Zach Johnson has made every cut in 2023 and he's been on an upward trend through a T12 at the Honda Classic. He's also made eleven straight cuts at this tournament. No really I checked all the way back to 2010. (Ronny we've talked about this). I KNOW!!!

One and Done Pick: Tyrell Hatton
Misguided though it may be, we are going
to now operate under the assumption that
players are fired-up to be the FGR pick.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Max Homa

Sleeper Pick: Zach Johnson

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy

$10,600

Max Homa

$9,700

Viktor Hovland

$9,000

Matt Fitzpatrick

$8,800

Tyrell Hatton

$8,300

Keith Mitchell

$8,000

Rickie Fowler

$7,700

Tommy Fleetwood

$7,500

Byeong Hun An

$7,000

Zach Johnson

$6,500


This week's chart honors perhaps my favorite moment from Full Swing to date when Collin Morikawa stares down his sponsor's fashion guy who has just proposed a shirt/pant combo that would make Duffy Waldorf cringe. When pressed for why he did not approve, Morikawa did not blink and said, "I don't think it's my style . . . I think it's your style." Legendary.

                                  THE ADDIDAS PUKE GREEN PANTS
                                 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

All kinds of good stuff in here this week but that Horschel - Conners - Kirk cluster really catches the eye. Good chance I regret excluding the whole lot of them from my top ten.

 

DK Price

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

Jon Rahm

$11,500

T17

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Scottie Scheffler

$10,900

1st

DNP

T15

DNP

DNP

Rory McIlroy

$10,600

T13

T10

T5

T6

1st

Max Homa

$9,700

T17

T10

T24

DNP

DNP

Justin Thomas

$9,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Colin Morikawa

$9,500

DNP

DNP

T9

DNP

T64

Will Zalatoris

$9,400

T38

T10

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tony Finau

$9,300

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Xander Schauffele

$9,200

DNP

DNP

T24

DNP

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$9,000

T2

T49

T42

T40

DNP

Sungjae Im

$8,900

T20

T21

3rd

T3

DNP

Matt Fitzpatrick

$8,800

T9

T10

T9

2nd

MC

Cameron Young

$8,700

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$8,600

DNP

T4

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jason Day

$8,500

DNP

T31

W/D

W/D

T22

Tom Kim

$8,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tyrell Hatton

$8,300

T2

T21

1st

T29

T69

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,200

T20

T18

T56

T33

T49

Sam Burns

$8,100

T9

MC

T36

T54

T49

Keith Mitchell

$8,000

T61

T43

T5

T6

DNP

Sahith Theegala

$7,900

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Shane Lowry

$7,900

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Billy Horschel

$7,800

T2

MC

T36

T50

T54

Corey Conners

$7,800

T11

3rd

MC

MC

DNP

Chris Kirk

$7,700

T5

T8

DNP

T15

DNP

Rickie Fowler

$7,700

T52

72nd

T18

T40

T14

Adam Scott

$7,600

T26

DNP

MC

DNP

T41

Justin Rose

$7,600

MC

W/D

MC

T63

3rd

Keegan Bradley

$7,600

T11

T10

T42

T46

T26

Adam Hadwin

$7,500

DNP

MC

DNP

T33

DNP

Si Woo Kim

$7,500

T26

W/D

MC

MC

MC

Tommy Fleetwood

$7,500

T20

T10

MC

T3

T26

Wyndham Clark

$7,500

DNP

MC

68th

DNP

DNP

Gary Woodland

$7,400

T5

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Seamus Power

$7,400

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Taylor Montgomery

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Lucase Herbert

$7,300

T7

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Luke List

$7,300

MC

T63

DNP

T10

T7

Min Woo Lee

$7,300

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nick Taylor

$7,300

T32

MC

T56

DNP

MC

Tom Hoge

$7,300

T32

MC

T15

DNP

T26

Aaron Wise

$7,200

T17

MC

DNP

T40

T41

Adrian Meronk

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Alex Noren

$7,200

DNP

T49

MC

DNP

T36

Brian Harman

$7,200

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

T54

Ty Detry

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Beau Hossler

$7,100

T20

DNP

T24

T58

T66

C. Bezuidenhout

$7,100

T20

7th

T18

DNP

DNP

K.H. Lee

$7,100

T42

MC

T42

DNP

DNP

Russell Henley

$7,100

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Taylor Moore

$7,100

T42

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Byeong Hun An

$7,000

DNP

T43

T56

T10

T14

Harris English

$7,000

DNP

T26

T9

68th

T22

Ryan Fox

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Ryder (Q)

$7,000

T62

DNP

MC

T33

DNP

Sepp Straka

$7,000

MC

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Eric Cole

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Francesco Molinari

$6,900

DNP

MC

DNP

1st

T26

J.J. Spaun

$6,900

T52

DNP

DNP

T63

DNP

Justin Suh

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$6,900

T38

T57

T24

T46

T7

Taylor Pendrith

$6,900

T42

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Svensson

$6,800

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Joel Dahmen

$6,800

DNP

MC

T5

MC

DNP

Kurt Kitayama

$6,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Scott Stallings

$6,800

MC

DNP

DNP

T40

MC

Andrew Putnam

$6,700

MC

T4

MC

DNP

DNP

Brendon Todd

$6,700

60th

T57

T18

DNP

DNP

Cameron Davis

$6,700

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Davis Riley

$6,600

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Emiliano Grillo

$6,600

DNP

T21

DQ

DNP

T26

Robby Shelton

$6,600

DNP

MC

T56

DNP

DNP

Hayden Buckley

$6,500

T68

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Kisner

$6,500

MC

T36

MC

T23

MC

Mackenzie Hughes

$6,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Zach Johnson

$6,500

T42

T49

DNP

T40

T26

Charley Hoffman

$6,300

DNP

T10

T13

MC

T14

Stewart Cink

$6,300

DNP

DNP

T47

MC

T58

Webb Simpson

$6,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Lucas Glover

$6,100

T74

T66

MC

T10

T49

Troy Merritt

$6,000

T74

DNP

T24

DNP

DNP


Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.