Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Fantasy Golf: The Players Championship Preview

I'm not going to get too hung-up on the success of last week's picks because we all know how fleeting that can be let's just note for the haters out there that I did recommend Tyrrell Hatton (1st), Marc Leishman (2nd), Bryson DeChambeau (4th), Keith Mitchell (T5th) and Matthew Fitzpatrick (T9th). Of course the other five guys I recommended either withdrew or missed the cut but good god do I have to do everything around here?!?!

Let us take an extra moment to bask in the glory of those picks . . . and we're done.

Now we move on to my favorite venue of the year because for an acerbic writer who never met an overly hyped fraud he didn't want to mock, The Players is the golf gift that keeps on giving. Just last night as I was drifting off to sleep on the couch next to an unfinished glass of bottom shelf Pinot Noir (again), I could faintly hear the desperate whine of Brandel Chamblee claiming that TPC Sawgrass is a special course because it doesn't favor a certain type of player. And he's kind of right. If that certain type of player it doesn't favor is a great player.


Consider for the sake of friendly discussion that we define a "great" player as one who has won three or more majors in his career. In the last eighteen years, The Players has been won by a "great" player three times - Phil Mickelson in 2007, Tiger Woods in 2013 and Rory McIlroy in 2019. Seems kind of light for a tournament with that supposed level of prestige.* In fact, Rory's win list year was the first time since 2014 that a multiple major winner even finished in the top five (Martin Kaymer won that year and Jordan Spieth finished T4th). I don't really have salient point here. Just noting that great players don't seem to win this great tournament that much.    


But believe it or not, I'm not here to bury The Players this year because it's actually been on a good run since 2012 with only Si-Woo Kim's win in 2017 disrupting an otherwise solid roster of winners including Tiger, Rory, Kaymer, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler. That's five major winners and arguably two of the best yet to win a major. Also, top five finishers the last two years have included Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter and Day. So for what it's worth, The Players seems to have emerged from its funk of 2002-2010 (pun intended . . . way inside golf joke). 

What it hasn't emerged from, however, is its inferiority complex. They've been playing this thing since 1974 and those with a vested interest in it still just can't seem to accept the fact that it will never be considered a major and treat it for what it is . . . a really fun tournament to watch that pays the winner a shitload of money and gives him a nice "and" on his golfing resume. Rory has won four majors "and" a The Players. Rickie Fowler has played on multiple Ryder Cup teams "and" won The Players. Craig Perks has a winning smile "and" he's won The Players.  

Just accept the fact that we already have all of the major scenarios covered. We've got one at the same course every year, one we let the Marquis de Sade set-up, one we let the British host and one where we invite the poor bastards who have to put-up with us playing five and half hour rounds and destroying golf carts every weekend. We don't need one at a tricked-up resort course four Waffle Houses outside of Jacksonville. So let's just get past all that gibberish and enjoy the next four days of golf's answer to the Bravo Channel.

And now this . . .  

TWEET OF THE WEEK


I'm headed to a somewhat remote destination on Friday. Good luck everyone and please try to have this shit straightened-out by the time I get back. Thanks.**   

SUDDENLY RESURGENT GOLF ANALYSIS

I feel cautiously optimistic about this week's picks as I have thoroughly convinced myself that the champion is going to be a guy who hasn't won a major yet but who everyone is confident eventually will. To me that makes Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele no-brainers. Especially since Rahm could've won here last year before melting down on Sunday and Schauffele's 2018 performance would've won just about every other year that Webb Simpson didn't lap the field.

And then there is the suddenly intriguing Tommy Fleetwood who we last saw submerging his first PGA Tour win to the right of the 18th green at PGA National. From a purely golfing standpoint, Fleetwood currently reminds me of 2008 Sergio Garcia. Two 29 year old sublime ball-strikers and streaky putters (to put it kindly) who feel very comfortable around Sawgrass at a time when they're battling the perception that the quality of their games should be yielding more impressive results (because they should). I just have a feeling that Fleetwood is going to get part of that monkey off his back this week.  

As for the rest of the picks, I wasn't quite willing to go all-in on my non-major winner theory so I'm recommending Webb Simpson over the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama though they would all be fine choices and I would rank them in that order. Collin Morikawa hasn't missed a cut since turning pro and he just ground-out a tie for 9th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. And you have to pick Matt Kuchar here. That's just a rule and I don't make the rules.   

I waffled a bit on Ian Poulter but, in the end, it came down to him or Billy Horschel for that spot so just pick your preferred enigma and pray he shows-up. And I know I'm jinxing the ever loving shit out of this but I love Matthew Fitzpatrick, Abraham Ancer and Joel Dahmen this week and will be genuinely surprised if at least two of them don't find their way into the top 20. And yes I said genuinely surprised. Not that faux surprise I exhibit after burping like Booger from Revenge of the Nerds

I will say this. It makes for
one helluva television show.
One and Done Pick: Tommy Fleetwood

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jon Rahm 


Sleeper Pick: Joel Dahmen


DraftKings Top Ten Values


Jon Rahm
$11,000
Xander Schauffele
$9,400
Webb Simpson
$9,200
Tommy Fleetwood
$9,000
Collin Morikawa
$7,900
Matt Kuchar
$7,800
Ian Poulter
$7,300
Matthew Fitzpatrick
$7,300
Abraham Ancer
$7,200
Joel Dahmen
$6,600

The Historical Performance Chart is long if not distinguished this week because frankly it has to be to get all the way down to past champion Si Woo Kim and other guys you might want to consider like Brian Harman and Sung Kang. For my last jab, I will say that the shot dispersion of top tens on this chart is not one you traditionally find for tournaments that objective people consider elite (pipe down Brandel).  


                                      THE FAKE NEWS KILLED MY 401K
                                    HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Rory McIlroy
$11,700
1st
MC
T35
T12
T8
Jon Rahm
$11,000
T12
T63
T72
DNP
DNP
Justin Thomas
$10,800
T35
T11
T75
T3
T24
Brooks Koepka
$10,200
T56
T11
T16
T35
MC
Dustin Johnson
$10,000
T5
T17
T12
T28
T69
Patrick Cantlay
$9,800
MC
T23
T22
DNP
DNP
Adam Scott
$9,600
T12
T11
T6
T12
T38
Xander Schauffele
$9,400
MC
T2
DNP
DNP
DNP
Webb Simpson
$9,200
T16
1st
T16
DNP
T66
Bryson DeChambeau
$9,100
T20
T37
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tommy Fleetwood
$9,000
T5
T7
T41
DNP
DNP
Rickie Fowler
$8,900
T47
MC
T60
MC
1st
Hideki Matsuyama
$8,800
T8
MC
T22
T7
T17
Justin Rose
$8,700
T8
T23
T65
T19
MC
Sungjae Im
$8,600
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patrick Reed
$8,500
T47
T41
T22
MC
T24
Jason Day
$8,400
T8
T5
T60
1st
MC
Gary Woodland
$8,300
T30
MC
T75
T28
MC
Paul Casey
$8,200
MC
DNP
T22
T23
W/D
Tony Finau
$8,100
T22
T57
MC
MC
DNP
Louis Oosthuizen
$8,000
T56
MC
T2
T28
T69
Sergio Garcia
$8,000
T22
70th
T30
T54
T2
Henrik Stenson
$7,900
MC
T23
T16
MC
T17
Colin Morikawa
$7,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Byeon Hun An
$7,800
T26
T30
DNP
MC
DNP
Matt Kuchar
$7,800
T26
T17
82nd
T3
MC
Shane Lowry
$7,800
MC
T46
MC
T16
MC
Jordan Spieth
$7,700
MC
T41
MC
MC
MC
Viktor Hovland
$7,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Marc Leishman
$7,600
MC
T63
MC
T64
T24
Joaquin Niemann
$7,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Billy Horschel
$7,500
T26
T37
MC
T28
T13
Scottie Scheffler
$7,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Phil Mickelson
$7,400
MC
MC
T41
MC
MC
Tyrell Hatton
$7,400
MC
MC
T41
DNP
DNP
Ian Poulter
$7,300
T56
T11
T2
T57
T30
Kevin Kisner
$7,300
T22
MC
T56
MC
T2
Matthew Fitzpatrick
$7,300
T41
T46
MC
MC
DNP
Matt Wallace
$7,300
T30
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Abraham Ancer
$7,200
T12
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brandt Snedeker
$7,200
T5
MC
DNP
MC
MC
Daniel Berger
$7,200
T67
T57
T65
T9
MC
Ryan Moore
$7,200
T20
T30
MC
MC
MC
Matthew Wolff
$7,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Erik Van Rooyen
$7,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Harris English
$7,200
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
B. Wiesberger
$7,100
DNP
DNP
T12
T49
MC
Charles Howell, III
$7,100
T35
T17
DNP
MC
T56
Chez Reavie
$7,100
MC
T30
T56
MC
DNP
Francesco Molinari
$7,100
T56
MC
T6
T7
DNP
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
$7,100
MC
T17
T4
MC
DNP
Brendon Todd
$7,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
T51
Carlos Ortiz
$7,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
DNP
Adam Hadwin
$7,000
MC
T57
T30
T39
MC
Cameron Smith
$7,000
T56
MC
MC
DNP
DNP
Kevin Na
$7,000
78th
T46
W/D
MC
T6
Lucas Glover
$7,000
MC
T72
T6
DNP
DNP
Graeme McDowell
$6,900
DNP
DNP
T69
T9
T56
Keegan Bradley
$6,900
T16
T7
T60
T35
MC
Russell Knox
$6,900
T35
MC
MC
T19
T17
Talor Gooch
$6,900
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jason Kokrak
$6,800
T47
T46
MC
W/D
MC
Jim Furyk
$6,800
2nd
DNP
MC
T35
T56
Scott Piercy
$6,700
T56
MC
MC
T23
MC
Joel Dahmen
$6,600
T12
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Keith Mitchell
$6,600
T47
T77
DNP
DNP
DNP
Si Woo Kim
$6,600
T56
T63
1st
T23
DNP
Max Homa
$6,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brian Harman
$6,400
T8
MC
T53
T54
T8
Sung Kang
$6,400
T47
MC
T30
DNP
DNP

Footnote

* If you want to try to torpedo my argument, just raise the fact that, by my definition, there are really only four "great" players currently competing at the highest level and that would include Tiger so of course they're not going to win at Sawgrass that often. However, Rory, Spieth and Brooks Koepka have all taken multiple runs at this thing while in their primes with a far lower success rate as measured in wins and top tens than they have at the majors. The same goes for Tiger and Phil Mickelson who have combined for three Players wins and a smattering of competitive finishes compared to their major records. To complete Phil's quote with the unsaid part, "I look at this course . . . I just can't believe I've actually won here (because I hate this place)."   

** For the record, I am only making light of the Coronavirus because that's my job and because I think that you can mock something and simultaneously take it seriously as a threat until you know it's not. You kind of have to take this approach when your favorite team plays the Cleveland Browns twice a year.  

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.