Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Fantasy Golf: The Arnold Palmer Preview

I know you all enjoy nothing more than reading about why I can't get these flimsy previews written by Tuesday so I was going to write about how I am currently sitting in an orthodontist's office on Wednesday morning waiting for my daughter to get braces to ensure that my monthly payments to these people continue in perpetuity (as the nice lady literally hands me the clipboard where I will effectively commit to buying a used Hyundai over the next two years). But that, however, would not explain why I couldn't get this done last night. 

I'm not really sure what's wrong with me. Usually I can write at night but the fact is that I've been feeling a bit feverish lately and have a bit of a cough. Feels like I may have picked-up something when I was hanging-out in that Turkish bathhouse on Sunday with a bunch of guys from the Fantasy Golf Report's Asian Tour department who were just in town for our annual meeting. Eh, I'm sure it's nothing.   

I've got some recompensing to do on the picks after the last few weeks. But first, this . . .  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

A handful of you are going to read this tweet, watch this video and form the knowing smile of someone who has borne witness.
REELING GOLF ANALYSIS

Last week was one big slow motion kick to the FGR crotch starting with Rickie Fowler blowing-up on Thursday and then coming back just to miss the cut by one. To add further insult, I'm in a league where I get to pick three players per week and replace one after the cut. I foolishly used Charl Schwartzel as my sub and he did his typical Saturday run - Sunday swoon. Billy Horschel produced a middling effort and I don't even need to tell you who my third guy was. Let's just say that the high cut is clearly not his natural shot shape.

Onward and upward. I'm going a bit contrarian this week because when trying to breakout of a slump it's always good to use a strategy with a historical success rate of about 17%. Anyway, I just feel like most of the value this week is in the $8,000 - $9,000 range and, if that's your approach, then you can't also go shopping in the high rent district. So yes I'm going to pass on Rory McIlroy who's last three finishes here are T6, 1st and T4. I'm also going to pass on Tommy Fleetwood who finished T3 here last year and I guess is due for a win but I'm not so sure anymore. Instead, I'm closing my eyes, holding my nose, stabbing myself in the thigh with a pencil and picking Bryson DeChambeau and that's all I want to say about that. 

After what's his name, we have a slew of great values including Jason Day, Henrik Stenson, Marc Leishman, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton. They've all had success at Bay Hill in the past and I fully expect at least two of them to finish top ten. And Rafa Cabrera-Bello finished T3 last year, is playing well and has never failed to let me down when I pick him so he's a perfect fit with this week's strategy. 

I know Francesco Molinari's game has been hot garbage lately but I can't pass-up a defending champion for $7,200 when he also happens to be a major winner and former top ten player. He is obviously comfortable here as evidenced by his solid five year performance. Hopefully the fact that he actually cashed a check for the first time in North America this year at the WGC combined with a week off and the return to a friendly track will jar him back to his 2018 form. 

For deeper sleepers, I'm going with Carlos Ortiz (on a current run of T25, T26 and T16) and Keith Mitchell who, like many of us, seems to like golfing in Florida. Hey, sometimes that's all it takes. 

Not gonna lie to you. My favorite part of this
picture is definitely the glimpse of the old school
muni-style halfway house in the background.
One and Done Pick: B. DeChambeau

Other Guy I'd Pick: T. Fleetwood


Sleeper Pick: Carlos Ortiz


DraftKings Top Ten Values


B. DeChambeau
$10,400
Jason Day
$9,100
Henrik Stenson
$8,800
Marc Leishman
$8,600
M. Fitzpatrick
$8,500
Tyrell Hatton
$8,100
R. Cabrera-Bello
$7,600
F. Molinari
$7,200
Carlos Ortiz
$7,100
Keith Mitchell
$6,600

We name this week's historical performance chart in honor of the guy who is trying so painfully hard to be the new Johnny Miller that he inspired someone on Twitter to compare him to a serrated dildo. I've never actually had any experience with a serrated dildo but I imagine it would be pretty uncomfortable. No matter how you used it. I'm going to stop talking now. 

As usual, the following list does not include the entire field but only those players who I strongly considered. The list is really long this week because I did a shitload of considering after the recent debacles.  

                              THE PAUL AZINGER ART OF DIPLOMACY
                                  HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Rory McIlroy
$11,800
T6
1st
T4
T27
T11
Tommy Fleetwood
$11,000
T3
T26
T10
DNP
DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
$10,600
T33
T49
T45
T6
T21
B. DeChambeau
$10,400
T46
2nd
DNP
T27
DNP
Xander Schauffele
$10,000
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Adam Scott
$9,700
DNP
T41
DNP
T12
T35
Sungjae Im
$9,500
T3
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patrick Reed
$9,400
T50
T7
DNP
DNP
DNP
Rickie Fowler
$9,300
T40
T14
12th
DNP
T29
Brooks Koepka
$9,200
MC
DNP
MC
DNP
W/D
Jason Day
$9,100
DNP
T22
T23
1st
T17
Justin Rose
$9,000
T63
3rd
T13
T9
DNP
Tony Finau
$8,900
DNP
DNP
T28
T43
MC
Henrik Stenson
$8,800
T17
4th
MC
T3
2nd
Byeon Hun An
$8,700
T10
T14
T49
T36
DNP
Marc Leishman
$8,600
T23
T7
1st
T17
MC
Matthew Fitzpatrick
$8,500
2nd
MC
T13
T27
DNP
Colin Morikawa
$8,400
DNP
T64
DNP
DNP
DNP
Bubba Watson
$8,300
T17
T66
T34
DNP
DNP
Lee Westwood
$8,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tyrell Hatton
$8,100
T29
T69
T4
DNP
DNP
Billy Horschel
$8,000
T50
T54
T13
T20
T43
Viktor Hovland
$8,000
T40
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Max Homa
$7,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Phil Mickelson
$7,900
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Abraham Ancer
$7,800
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Kisner
$7,800
T23
MC
T2
MC
T49
Scottie Scheffler
$7,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Wyndham Clark
$7,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Ian Poulter
$7,600
T23
T41
T41
T46
T21
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
$7,600
T3
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brendan Steele
$7,500
T17
DNP
DNP
T46
T35
Charl Schwartzel
$7,500
DNP
MC
T45
DNP
DNP
Joaquin Niemann
$7,500
T46
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Bud Cauley
$7,400
MC
T14
MC
DNP
DNP
Harris English
$7,400
68th
T22
MC
MC
T29
J.B. Holmes
$7,400
MC
T41
DNP
DNP
MC
Maverick McNealy
$7,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
T46
DNP
Ryan Moore
$7,400
T33
T5
T34
T74
DNP
Alex Noren
$7,300
DNP
T36
T49
DNP
DNP
Joel Dahmen
$7,300
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Na
$7,300
MC
T36
MC
DNP
T6
Charles Howell, III
$7,200
T15
T14
T56
T46
T21
Francesco Molinari
$7,200
1st
T26
T7
T9
T17
Jason Kokrak
$7,200
T10
MC
T56
T20
T6
Russell Knox
$7,200
DNP
T73
DNP
DNP
T29
Vaughn Taylor
$7,200
MC
DNP
T23
MC
DNP
Carlos Ortiz
$7,100
T29
DNP
DNP
DNP
T21
Emiliano Grillo
$7,100
DNP
T26
T17
T17
DNP
Brian Harman
$7,000
MC
T54
T13
T17
MC
Keegan Bradley
$7,000
T46
T26
T34
T36
T49
Talor Gooch
$7,000
DNP
T26
DNP
DNP
DNP
Graeme McDowell
$6,900
T54
T22
T28
MC
MC
Matt Wallace
$6,800
T6
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Sung Kang
$6,800
T6
T58
DNP
MC
DNP
Adam Long
$6,700
T10
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Harry Higgs
$6,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Keith Mitchell
$6,600
T6
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patrick Rodgers
$6,600
T46
T7
MC
T20
DNP
Zach Johnson
$6,600
T40
T26
T66
5th
T9

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

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