Fantasy Golf: Valero Texas Open Preview

Got a call from Lou Loomis on Monday and he did not mince words. "I'm going to put it right on the line for you FGR. There's been a lot of complaints already. Late posts. Sloppy analysis. Stupid jokes. POOR FANTASY GOLF WRITING!!!"

Well I'm afraid this week isn't going to be much better but I am committed to making next week's Master's preview one of the greatest in FGR history. A low bar to be sure but let's be honest, that's true of the entire fantasy golf writing industry. We're not exactly featuring Frank DeFord and Dan Jenkins* over here.  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I apologize if some find this tweet triggering but it's downright fucking funny. 

GOLF ANALYSIS, FOUR WHOLE FRIED CHICKENS AND A COKE 

The failure to either pick Sam Burns at the Valspar or Scottie Scheffler at the Match-Play would be kind of forgivable on their own but whiffing on both of them is not. Fortunately or unfortunately, the Valero Texas Open is less predictable than those two events as evidenced by a recent run of winners ranging from Jordan Spieth to Andrew Landry (no offense Andrew) so our forecasting expectations should be low to quite low.  

The course would seem to favor the straight hitter over the bomber so the pick this week is Abraham Ancer who currently ranks 11th in driving accuracy. The rest of the top ten is littered with the likes of Corey Conners (41st), Chris Kirk (47th), Kevin Streelman (4th) and Lucas Glover (20th). Hey, at least this week there's a strategy beyond "I had a dream that I went water skiing with Paul Casey and Jason Kokrak so let's pick them."  

You are obligated to pick past champion Charley Hoffman who is also coming-off back to back runner-up finishes. And we're feeling like a flyer on Rickie Fowler. He's actually made three cuts in a row (talk about your low bar) and this should be a low pressure environment where he's played fairly well in the past. I'm trying to come-up with a personal analogy for this but lately I find ordering coffee and a donut in front of a line of people a high pressure environment so I got nothing.  

One and Done Pick: Abraham Ancer

"He did not just pick me!"

Other Guy I'd Pick: Chris Kirk

Sleeper Pick: Kevin Chappell 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Abraham Ancer	$10,300
Corey Conners	$9,800
Chris Kirk	$9,400
Kevin Streelman	$8,700
Charley Hoffman	$8,200
Rickie Fowler	$7,700
Brendan Steele	$7,600
Lucas Glover	$7,400
Anirban Lahiri	$7,100
Kevin Chappell	$6,700

There is not a lot of consistency to be found over the last five years but worth noting that K.H. Lee and Martin Laird (past champion) have at least made the cut when they've played. And if picking one of those guys doesn't get your juices flowing . . . 

                                HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

	DK Price	2021	2019	2018	2017	2016
Rory McIlroy	$11,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$10,800	T30	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$10,600	1st	T30	DNP	DNP	DNP
Abraham Ancer	$10,300	T23	T42	T58	DNP	T42
B. DeChambeau	$10,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	MC
Corey Conners	$9,800	T14	1st	T26	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$9,600	T23	T4	T45	T22	MC
Maverick McNealy	$9,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$9,400	T6	MC	T8	MC	T13
Gary Woodland	$9,300	T6	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$9,200	T23	DNP	T45	MC	T37
Tony Finau	$9,100	MC	T61	DNP	T3	DNP
Jason Day	$9,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$8,900	T23	DNP	DNP	T72	DNP
Kevin Streelman	$8,700	DNP	6th	T8	T53	T39
Jhonatten Vegas	$8,600	MC	T30	MC	T34	MC
Luke List	$8,500	T17	MC	MC	MC	T29
Dylan Riley	$8,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Russell Knox	$8,300	MC	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Charley Hoffman	$8,200	2nd	2nd	T64	T40	1st
Mito Pereira	$8,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patton Kizzire	$8,000	T9	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ryan Palmer	$8,000	T17	MC	MC	T6	T4
Rasmus Hojgaard	$7,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Robert Macintyre	$7,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Kuchar	$7,800	T12	T7	T51	T40	T42
Sahith Theegala	$7,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ian Poulter	$7,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$7,700	T17	T17	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brendan Steele	$7,600	77th	T42	T30	T62	T13
Doug Ghim	$7,600	T44	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
K.H. Lee	$7,600	T23	T14	DNP	DNP	DNP
Denny McCarthy	$7,500	T34	MC	T20	DNP	DNP
Lanto Griffin	$7,500	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Martin Laird	$7,500	T30	T36	T11	T18	DNP
Charles Howell, III	$7,400	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lucas Glover	$7,400	4th	T14	DNP	DNP	DNP
Scott Stallings	$7,400	T59	T23	DNP	MC	T13
Chad Ramey	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$7,300	T59	T52	MC	T22	T21
Takumi Kanaya	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Troy Merritt	$7,300	DNP	DNP	T36	T49	MC
Brian Stuard	$7,200	MC	T4	T36	MC	T55
C.T. Pan	$7,200	DNP	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Dylan Frittelli	$7,200	DNP	T42	T20	DNP	DNP
Richard Bland	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Anirban Lahiri	$7,100	5th	DNP	T58	T72	DNP
Matthew NeSmith	$7,100	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Pat Perez	$7,100	T67	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Beau Hossler	$7,000	T69	T36	T51	MC	DNP
Lee Westwood	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Jones	$7,000	DNP	T30	MC	T13	T60
Branden Grace	$6,900	T23	DNP	DNP	T10	T9
Cameron Champ	$6,900	T34	DNP	T73	DNP	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$6,800	DNP	T20	DNP	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$6,700	MC	T36	T8	DNP	DNP
Doc Redman	$6,700	T44	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kevin Chappell	$6,700	MC	DNP	T30	1st	T4
Zach Johnson	$6,600	MC	DNP	5th	MC	T29

Footnote

* Dan Jenkins was always great for a golf quote . . . "the devoted golfer is an anguished soul who has learned a lot about putting, just as an avalanche victim has learned a lot about snow." Also, when seated at a bar, he insisted on having three drinks in front of him - a scotch and water, a back-up scotch and water . . . and a cup of coffee. We liked his style. 

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