Fantasy Golf: The Players Championship Preview

There was a point last Thursday as Rory McIlroy was strutting and peacocking his way around Bay Hill on the way to an opening round 65 when all seemed right with the world. I had used my one precious pick of the year on my favorite player and it looked like I was to be rewarded with a weekend of Rory bombs as he cruised to victory. 

Alas it was not meant to be as Rory started to unravel with a back nine 38 on Friday that turned into a full-blown meltdown over the weekend highlighted by a Saturday double bogey after he had to back away from his tee shot to allow an ambulance to pass in front of the tee box. It was presumably carrying the remnants of my DraftKings rosters. Anyway, look for him to bounce back with a win at Sawgrass. Gambling is fun.  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

This tweet was right before Rory and Adam Scott went full Thelma and fucking Louise by driving the mutual admiration mobile right over the edge of the cliff, shooting a combined +16 on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For those of us who picked Rory, it was like watching your house burn down while the fire department from Roxanne tried to hook-up their hose. 

GOLF ANALYSIS FOR THE TERMINALLY OPTIMISTIC 

Let's get this out of the way right from the start. There are no good picks on this suspect golf course.* Only two players have had more than two top tens here in the last six years. Care to name them? OK yes Jason Day is one . . . but good luck on the other guy. I could even tell you that his name rhymes with Ryan Carmen and 75% of the people reading this still wouldn't have any idea who in the hell I'm talking about. 

Let's take a look at the track records of this week's favorites. Rory is a popular pick this week because he won it in 2019 and had a nice run from 2013-15 but he also has two missed cuts and a T35 in his last four trips. Jon Rahm has been trending nicely in his four trips going T72, T63, T12 and T9, however, TPC Sawgrass is not ideal for the short of temper. Believe me. I've experienced it firsthand (yeah yeah we know . . . please STFU).

How about last year's winner Justin Thomas? He could repeat right? Well let's take a look at how our past five defending champions fared upon their return . . . Rory McIlroy (MC), Webb Simpson (T16), Si Woo Kim (T63), Jason Day (T60), Rickie Fowler (MC) and Martin Kaymer (T56). So that would seem unlikely. And I'm not picking Colin Morikawa or Viktor Hovland either because I'm convinced we're headed for a second tier leaderboard on Sunday.

Not that the second tier is a bad place with this loaded field as it includes the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson, Scottie Scheffler and my preference Xander Schauffele. Would I use a one and done pick on him here? Hell no but he's been playing well lately and he's actually starting to make me wonder if a Players title might be his unexpected ceiling a la Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler and Craig Perks (just making sure you're paying attention).

TPC Sawgrass doesn't necessarily favor a type as everyone from Tim Clark to Tiger Woods** has had success there but it seems to tilt towards the "ball-strikers" so that's where I'm focusing my attention. Remember that Sergio Garcia is arguably the greatest player in the history of this tournament (a somewhat dubious distinction) and he can't putt for shit which makes this the perfect fit for Will Zalatoris. Just remember to avert your eyes when he's inside five feet and remember that he's probably going to be putting for birdie on the next hole. 

With that philosophy in mind, I am also recommending Adam Scott, Shane Lowry, Matthew Fitzpatrick and the aforementioned Sergio. For my winner I'm taking a leap of faith with Tommy Fleetwood. Hear me out. He's played the event four times and has two top tens which means he at least falls into the category of guys who tolerate the course. The weather is going to include rain, wind and fluctuating temperatures which is ideal for this game. And most importantly, if you pick him and he flops . . . who cares?   

  

One and Done Pick: Tommy Fleetwood

Jesus I need a win.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Daniel Berger

Sleeper Pick: Tom Hoge

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Xander Schauffele	$9,700
Cameron Smith	$9,400
Will Zalatoris	$8,900
Daniel Berger	$8,800
Adam Scott	$8,200
Shane Lowry	$8,000
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$7,700
Sergio Garcia	$7,400
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,400
Tom Hoge	$7,000

I think I did a triple take when I realized that Rickie Fowler wasn't in the field this week. The FGR takes the occasional soft shot at him but it comes from a place of love as I still hold-out hope that he can rekindle the magic and sneak a major onto his resume. That would make for a glorious Sunday and the ensuing victory parade of skateboarders and BMX riders would be a hoot.  

                          THE RICKIE FOWLER'S GAME MEMORIAL

                              HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

As noted above, this chart is basically useless unless you find it instructive that Brandt Snedeker, Charl Schwartzel and Jimmy Walker have all finished in the top five since 2018. Also, worth noting that their other six finishes over that span are five missed cuts and a tie for 67th. Pffft.  

	DK Price	2021	2019	2018	2017	2016
Jon Rahm	$11,100	T9	T12	T63	T72	DNP
Rory McIlroy	$10,800	MC	1st	MC	T35	T12
Colin Morikawa	$10,700	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Thomas	$10,400	1st	T35	T11	T75	T3
Viktor Hovland	$10,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,900	MC	MC	T23	T22	DNP
Dustin Johnson	$9,800	T48	T5	T17	T12	T28
Xander Schauffele	$9,700	MC	MC	T2	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,600	MC	T8	MC	T22	T7
Cameron Smith	$9,400	T17	T56	MC	MC	DNP
Scottie Scheffler	$9,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$9,000	T48	MC	T41	MC	MC
Will Zalatoris	$8,900	21st	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Daniel Berger	$8,800	T9	T67	T57	T65	T9
Louis Oosthuizen	$8,700	T41	T56	MC	T2	T28
Brooks Koepka	$8,600	DNP	T56	T11	T16	T35
Tony Finau	$8,500	MC	T22	T57	MC	MC
Joaquin Niemann	$8,400	T29	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$8,300	T17	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$8,200	T48	T12	T11	T6	T12
Billy Horschel	$8,100	T58	T26	T37	MC	T28
Shane Lowry	$8,000	8th	MC	T46	MC	T16
Sam Burns	$7,900	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tyrell Hatton	$7,800	MC	MC	MC	T41	DNP
Matt Fitzpatrick	$7,700	T9	T41	T46	MC	MC
Abraham Ancer	$7,600	T22	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$7,600	MC	T16	1st	T16	DNP
Jason Day	$7,500	T35	T8	T5	T60	1st
Marc Leishman	$7,500	MC	MC	T63	MC	T64
Max Homa	$7,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$7,400	MC	T30	MC	T75	T28
Paul Casey	$7,400	T5	MC	DNP	T22	T23
Russell Henley	$7,400	MC	MC	MC	T35	MC
Sergio Garcia	$7,400	T9	T22	70th	T30	T54
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,400	MC	T5	T7	T41	DNP
Cameron Tringale	$7,300	MC	DNP	DNP	T35	T16
Corey Conners	$7,300	7th	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ian Poulter	$7,300	MC	T56	T11	T2	T57
Jason Kokrak	$7,300	T9	T47	T46	MC	W/D
Justin Rose	$7,300	DNP	T8	T23	T65	T19
Patrick Reed	$7,300	T22	T47	T41	T22	MC
Si Woo Kim	$7,300	T9	T56	T63	1st	T23
Cameron Champ	$7,200	MC	W/D	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Young	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kevin Na	$7,200	W/D	78th	T46	W/D	MC
Luke List	$7,200	MC	T56	MC	MC	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Seamus Power	$7,200	DNP	T35	DNP	DNP	DNP
Talor Gooch	$7,200	T5	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Doc Redman	$7,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Erik Van Rooyen	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Keith Mitchell	$7,100	MC	T47	T77	DNP	DNP
Kevin Kisner	$7,100	MC	T22	MC	T56	MC
Lee Westwood	$7,100	2nd	DNP	DNP	T65	DNP
Russell Knox	$7,100	T67	T35	MC	MC	T19
Ryan Palmer	$7,100	T17	MC	T23	MC	T23
Alex Noren	$7,000	MC	MC	T17	10th	DNP
Chris Kirk	$7,000	T48	T56	T46	T12	W/D
Lanto Griffin	$7,000	T35	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Jones	$7,000	T55	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Maverick McNealy	$7,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$7,000	T22	T30	MDF	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$6,900	T3	T8	MC	T53	T54
Bubba Watson	$6,900	MC	T56	T57	MC	T43
Emiliano Grillo	$6,900	MC	T26	T37	11th	MC
Keegan Bradley	$6,900	T29	T16	T7	T60	T35
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,900	MC	DNP	T57	T16	DNP
Patton Kizzire	$6,900	T35	MDF	MC	MC	76th
Wyndham Clark	$6,900	MC	DQ	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brendon Todd	$6,800	T35	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Cameron Davis	$6,800	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Francesco Molinari	$6,800	MC	T56	MC	T6	T7
Harold Varner, III	$6,800	T61	MC	T7	T35	T57
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,800	T61	T3	T41	MC	T57
Matthew Wolff	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$6,700	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Charley Hoffman	$6,700	T17	MC	MC	T30	MC
Joel Dahmen	$6,700	MC	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Kuchar	$6,700	MC	T26	T17	82nd	T3
Lucas Glover	$6,600	T48	MC	T72	T6	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$6,500	T29	MC	T57	T30	T39
Branden Grace	$6,500	MC	T72	T46	T48	T57
Brandt Snedeker	$6,500	MC	T5	MC	DNP	MC
Brendan Steele	$6,500	T41	MC	T79	T6	T57
Charl Schwartzel	$6,500	MC	MC	T2	MC	DNP
Hudson Swafford	$6,500	MC	DNP	MC	MC	T57
Denny McCarthy	$6,400	T55	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kevin Streelman	$6,400	MC	MC	MC	T72	T74
K.H. Lee	$6,300	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jimmy Walker	$6,200	MC	T67	T2	T56	MC

Footnote

* My feelings about the golf course do not detract from the fact that I now believe this a very entertaining and almost high quality tournament. Six of the last eight winners are major champions and the drama created by holes 16-18 is undeniable (even if it is manufactured). In my ongoing effort to be less of an asshole, I felt that needed to be said.

** I stand by my position that, if Tiger Woods has played your tournament 19 times and only won it twice with three other top tens, your golf course sucks. Now get off of my lawn. 

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