Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Fantasy Golf: Texas Children's Houston Open Preview

I'm going to avoid comparing my current three week run of failure to recent local events but damn if it isn't just sitting there for the taking. I mean Sam Burns missing the cut at the Valspar Championship would be like Edwin Moses tripping over every hurdle during his Olympic prime or Coldplay producing a listenable song. The odds are astronomical and yet it happened with Burns so maybe there's still hope for Coldplay

The fact is that the real season doesn't start until The Masters so I've still got two more weeks of grace before it's time to panic. At least that's what I'm telling myself. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I mean I'm not going to get overly dramatic and personal about this but it's pretty fucking crazy to see a bridge that you've driven over about a hundred times get hit by a ship and collapse into the sea like a Jenga tower. Has me feeling super keen about my next trip through the Fort McHenry Tunnel. Currently shopping S.C.U.B.A. tanks on eBay.  


GOLF ANALYSIS

It is written in the FGR bylaws that, once a pick is made, it is not to be changed. However, desperate times call for desperate measures and these are definitely such times. Despite the aforementioned lack of panic, the bylaws were breached this week with a last minute switch from the overthought pick of Keith Mitchell to the far more logical choice of relatively red hot Will Zalatoris who was on a roll before missing the cut at The Players (which doesn't really count). 

If my research is correct, then they've only played this golf course three times so it doesn't warrant a full historical chart (and also I don't feel like it) but worth noting are: (1) Tony Finau is the defending champion, (2) Jason Day has a couple top twenty finishes (T7 and T16), and (3) Scottie Scheffler plays it well with a T9, T2 and T28 but what else is new? He can't win three in a row right? RIGHT?!?!

The lone bright spot from last week was Andrew Novak who came through with a much needed loss defraying top 20. We like him in that role again at +320 along with Taylor Moore at +230 and Matti Schmid at +360. Maybe combo a couple of them up with a Zalatoris top five and hope this is one of those weeks when my complete lack of give a shit yields some positive results. Good vibes only baby.

One and Done Pick: Will Zalatoris
I prefer my Zalatoris with some meat
on his bones so I went with this shot 
from the day after he ate at Denny's.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Keith Mitchell

Sleeper Pick: Matti Schmid

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Will Zalatoris

$10,100

Tony Finau

$9,900

Jason Day

$9,500

Keith Mitchell

$9,200

Billy Horschel

$8,300

Doug Ghim

$8,200

Taylor Moore

$7,600

K.H. Lee

$7,400

Andrew Novak

$6,900

Matti Schmid

$6,300


Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Fantasy Golf: The Valspar Championship Preview

We don't keep statistics around here for our own mental self-preservation but if we did, I'm pretty sure the last two weeks would go down as the worst stretch in FGR history. To somehow talk myself out of picking Scottie Scheffler not once, but twice in a row on courses where he was the prohibitive favorite was a level of incompetence not yet previously achieved on this website. And that's saying something. 

I went to play nine holes at 3:30 p.m. on Sunday and, when I walked into the pro shop, I saw that Scottie was one shot off the lead so I asked the young assistant pro "he's going to win isn't he?" Apparently reading my somber tone, he simply replied, "I'm afraid so" in much the same way a parent explains the reality of a floating goldfish to a five year old. 

In the spirit of being a goldfish we will, however, soldier on with a new tournament this week and undaunted thanks to the firm hope that vindication awaits at Augusta.  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I know two minutes is a lot to ask these days but please do yourself a favor and watch the PGA Tour video first and then Scotty Holdridge's take. For what it's worth, I'm about to go watch it a couple more times and cracking-up just thinking about it . . . "ok, what did we learn?"

GOLF ANALYSIS

We're going with the less is more approach this week because clearly the "more is more" approach has been a complete disaster. Sam Burns has dominated this event for the last three years and he's playing well enough. Also, I'm so gun shy right now that I'm afraid not to pick him which is really a great way to approach any decision in life. 

If you wanted to throw Justin Thomas or Jordan Spieth out there against a weaker field, I wouldn't blame you but I'd stay away from Xander Schauffele. If for no other reason than the fact that the guy two stools over from me at the bar on Sunday believes that "HE CAN'T CLOSE!" And, if you didn't hear him the first three times, well then you were in luck because he said it at least three more times. 

Beyond that, I love Nick Taylor (top ten +700), Doug Ghim (top ten +750) and Taylor Moore (top 20 +260). If you've got a taste for some higher stakes, I'd take a flyer on Adam Schenk (winner +6500) and Andrew Novak (top five +2200 and top ten +900). Please do not read this as a condonation of gambling . . . which is bad

One and Done Pick: Sam Burns
COME ON BURNSY!!!

Other Guy I'd Pick: Nick Taylor

Sleeper Pick: Adam Schenk

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Sam Burns

$10,900

Sungjae Im

$9,400

Nick Taylor

$9,100

Keith Mitchell

$8,900

Doug Ghim

$8,400

Adam Hadwin

$8,200

Taylor Moore

$7,800

Sam Ryder

$7,300

Adam Schenk

$7,100

Andrew Novak

$6,700


If anyone had a worse week than the FGR, it was apparently the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee which is being universally reviled to an extent never before seen. Kornheiser and Wilbon absolutely shredded them on PTI but, for some pure unvarnished vitriol, I recommend the opening few minutes of Episode 20 of the Meister Madness podcast. If you love to hear imbecility called-out as much as I do, this will make your heart sing.

                                 THE NCAA TOURNAMENT SELECTION
                              COMMITTEE TRULY SUCKS AT THEIR JOB
                                  HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

There's really not much to go on here as LIVGolf and the signature events have taken what used to be a B- field and docked it a couple grades. I mean Keegan Bradley once sandwiched a runner-up between a couple missed cuts if that does it for you.

 

DK Price

2023

2022

2021

2019

2018

Xander Schauffele

$11,200

DNP

T12

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Burns

$10,900

6th

1st

1st

T30

T12

Justin Thomas

$10,400

T10

T3

T13

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$10,200

T3

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Brian Harman

$9,800

MC

T5

DNP

MC

DNP

Cameron Young

$9,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sungjae Im

$9,400

DNP

DNP

T29

T4

DNP

Tony Finau

$9,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Nick Taylor

$9,100

T10

T70

MC

T24

MC

Min Woo Lee

$9,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Keith Mitchell

$8,900

DNP

DNP

69th

DNP

DNP

C. Bezuidenhout

$8,800

DNP

T62

DNP

DNP

DNP

Eric Cole

$8,700

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Keegan Bradley

$8,600

DNP

MC

2nd

MC

T31

Aaron Rai

$8,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Doug Ghim

$8,400

T27

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Beau Hossler

$8,300

MC

DNP

T39

MC

MC

Adam Hadwin

$8,200

MC

T7

MC

MC

T12

Maverick McNealy

$8,100

T36

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$8,000

T36

DNP

MC

MC

T59

Sepp Straka

$7,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

T46

DNP

Taylor Moore

$7,800

1st

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Andrew Putnam

$7,700

DNP

MC

MC

DNP

MC

Thor Olesen

$7,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Taylor Montgomery

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Billy Horschel

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Brendon Todd

$7,400

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Lucas Glover

$7,300

T36

DNP

T48

T13

T74

Sam Ryder

$7,300

T19

MC

MC

MC

T68

Daniel Berger

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ryan Fox

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Schenk

$7,100

2nd

MC

T18

MC

T59

Akshay Bhatia

$7,100

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ryo Hisatune

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Victor Perez

$6,900

T45

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ben Griffin

$6,800

T45

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Joel Dahmen

$6,800

T61

T39

DNP

T30

DNP

Thomas Detry

$6,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Chesson Hadley

$6,700

MC

MC

MC

T65

MC

Mackenzie Hughes

$6,700

DNP

MC

MC

T13

MC

Webb Simpson

$6,700

T7

T48

DNP

MC

T8

Andrew Novak

$6,700

T27

MC

DNP

DNP

MC

Taylor Pendrith

$6,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP


Email the Fantasy Golf Report here