Fantasy Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

In a week when my pick (Eric Cole) missed the cut by 9 shots and only didn't finish DFL because apparently Thomas Detry wanted it more, I actually thought that I'd salvaged a profit with my wager on Billy Horschel to finish top ten at +1000. Little did I know that the gambling service I use and currently promote (for now) employs something called the "Dead Heat Reduction Rule" a/k/a "Our Totally Made-Up Rule to Fuck You" which lowered my payout from 10/1 to about 3/1 because Horschel tied for 9th. It's funny (hilarious really) because I don't remember seeing the following disclaimer next to the odds: "unless more than ten guys finish in the top ten." 

I mean in their defense, it's rare for ties in a golf tournament to result in more than ten guys finishing in the top ten. Probably only happens about 80-90% of the time so why would you feel the need to openly disclose a rule that affects that outcome? Maybe I shouldn't expect better from gambling companies who are currently scrambling to fuck bettors out of winnings from legitimate bets made on the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. 

In the immortal words of former United States Senator/Actor Fred Thompson from The Hunt for Red October, "this business will get out of control, it will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it!" And hey kids, if you haven't seen that movie, please do yourself a favor before they butcher it with a remake. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

The losers of LIVGolf found yet another way to beclown themselves with the introduction of their latest novelty act, Anthony Kim, who announced his return with "Hello haters - I'm back" (as if anyone cares enough about him to hate him) and Joaquin Niemann whined about his World Golf Ranking immediately after pocketing a few more million dollars that he knowingly sold out for.

So this week's highlighted tweet is actually a LIVGolf themed reply from Texas defense lawyer Coby DuBose. In addition to this high honor, Coby will now also be my first call if things ever go sideways for me in Houston (what are the chances?). After all, his motto is "Good People Deserve a Great Lawyer." Fucking cheers to that brother. 

The entire enterprise is built on misery. It’s what the people pretending to be their fans crave. Grievance grievance grievance grievance.

— Coby DuBose | DuBose Defense (@DuBoseDefense) March 3, 2024

GOLF ANALYSIS

Say what you want about the new signature events but when they hit, it's pretty sweet as we are almost assured of having our first stacked leaderboard since the Genesis. The main debate this week is Scottie v. Rory and 90% of the time I come down on the Rory side of that only to be wrong 65% of the time. We're going to try to buck that trend by going the other way at Bay Hill.

Scheffler is such the logical pick that I almost talked myself into him but it kind of feels like there are better places to use the best player in the world who has finished top ten in 10 of his last 16 majors and also happens to be the defending Players champion. So instead, I'm going with Ludvig Aberg who finished T24 here as an amateur and has a game ideally suited for this track. In other words, he can absolutely fucking mash it.

Option #3 would be Cameron Young who has three top tens in his last five starts and also the game to bomb it around this joint as evidenced by his T10-T13 finishes. Option #4 would be Matt Fitzpatrick . . . (ok we get it, let's move along). 

The value between $7,200 - $8,000 is ridiculous. In any other year, Sungjae Im ($8,000) would be a top ten favorite and we've got last year's winner and runner-up (Kurt Kitayama and Harris English) available for the low low price of $7,300. I went with English as that is the preferred and only language I speak.  

One and Done Pick: Ludvig Aberg

Feels like the perfect time to enjoy this
tall drink of refreshing Nordic water.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Scottie Scheffler

Sleeper Pick: Adam Svensson

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Scottie Scheffler	$11,300
Ludvig Aberg	$9,500
Max Homa	$9,200
Cameron Young	$8,700
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,600
Sungjae Im	$8,000
Chris Kirk	$7,800
Keegan Bradley	$7,400
Harris English	$7,300
Adam Svensson	$6,400

We wanted to call this the Richard Lewis Memorial Historical Performance Chart but that just didn't feel like it captured the essence of one of our all-time favorites so . . . 

                   THIS CHART IS JUST A BIT MUCH WITH THE NUMBERS AND 

                    COLORS (TOUCHES FOREHEAD) YOU KNOW THE WHOLE 

                    THING IS REALLY VERY SAD WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT

There are more sterling records on this chart than we can fully acknowledge but notables include Victor Hovland, Jordan Spieth and Corey Conners. We're definitely going to have to add excluding at least one of those guys to this week's growing list of regrets. 

	DK Price	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Scottie Scheffler	$11,300	T4	1st	DNP	T15	DNP
Rory McIlroy	$10,600	T2	T13	T10	T5	T6
Patrick Cantlay	$10,000	T4	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$9,900	T10	T2	T49	T42	T40
Xander Schauffele	$9,800	T39	DNP	DNP	T24	DNP
Ludvig Aberg	$9,500	T24	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$9,400	T4	DNP	T4	DNP	DNP
Sam Burns	$9,300	MC	T9	MC	T36	T54
Max Homa	$9,200	T14	T17	T10	T24	DNP
Colin Morikawa	$9,100	MC	DNP	DNP	T9	DNP
Justin Thomas	$9,000	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Will Zalatoris	$8,900	T53	T38	T10	DNP	DNP
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,800	T61	T20	T10	MC	T3
Cameron Young	$8,700	T10	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,600	T14	T9	T10	T9	2nd
Wyndham Clark	$8,500	T34	DNP	MC	68th	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,400	MC	T20	T18	T56	T33
Tom Kim	$8,300	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$8,200	T10	DNP	T31	W/D	W/D
Sahith Theegala	$8,100	T14	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$8,000	T21	T20	T21	3rd	T3
Russell Henley	$8,000	T53	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP
J.T. Poston	$7,900	DNP	DNP	MC	MC	T66
Mattieu Pavon	$7,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Corey Conners	$7,800	T21	T11	3rd	MC	MC
Chris Kirk	$7,800	T39	T5	T8	DNP	T15
Si Woo Kim	$7,700	T39	T26	W/D	MC	MC
Brian Harman	$7,700	MC	DNP	DNP	MC	MC
Byeong Hun An	$7,600	W/D	DNP	T43	T56	T10
Jake Knapp	$7,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Shane Lowry	$7,500	67th	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$7,500	T31	T26	DNP	MC	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$7,400	T10	T11	T10	T42	T46
Eric Cole	$7,400	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$7,300	T2	DNP	T26	T9	68th
Kurt Kitayama	$7,300	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nicolai Hojgaard	$7,200	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Stephan Jaeger	$7,200	DNP	T52	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$7,100	T31	T52	72nd	T18	T40
Tom Hoge	$7,100	MC	T32	MC	T15	DNP
Luke List	$7,000	MC	MC	T63	DNP	T10
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,000	MC	T20	7th	T18	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$6,900	T39	DNP	T21	DQ	DNP
Austin Eckroat	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$6,800	MC	MC	W/D	MC	T63
Adam Hadwin	$6,800	MC	DNP	MC	DNP	T33
Cam Davis	$6,700	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Denny McCarthy	$6,700	DNP	T61	T26	MC	DNP
Min Woo Lee	$6,600	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Erik Van Rooyen	$6,600	DNP	MC	T57	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$6,500	MC	T32	MC	T56	DNP
Patrick Rodgers	$6,500	MC	T38	T57	T24	T46
Sepp Straka	$6,400	MC	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Adam Svensson	$6,400	T24	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brendon Todd	$6,400	T39	60th	T57	T18	DNP
Taylor Moore	$6,300	T39	T42	DNP	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$6,300	T34	MC	T4	MC	DNP
Lucas Glover	$6,300	MC	T74	T66	MC	T10
Seamus Power	$6,100	72nd	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,100	T61	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Dunlap	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$6,000	T24	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP

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