The FGR Week 3 NFL Picks

We've started a lot of posts over the last few years with something along the lines of "as the world continues to descend into chaos . . ." and at this point it's hard to tell whether: (a) this will just be an endless descent, (b) we'll pull out of it and start ascending away from chaos, or (c) we will eventually land in chaos but that would probably just look like a crazier version of (a). I'm kind of confident that we're never going to get to a full version of (c) because the one thing you can count on from Americans now is that they're too lazy and distracted to even go out and buy their own fast food much less start a civil war. Even if you could DoorDash a grenade, you'd still have to leave the house to throw it at someone so we've got that going for us.

(Note that I wrote that opening paragraph before my daughter spent a good part of Friday on active shooter lockdown in her college dorm so my attempt to be hyperbolic was almost immediately undermined by reality). 

Anyway, life goes on and nowhere is that more evident than with the NFL which is a nice annual reminder that we used to hate each other for more wholesome reasons. I actually miss the days when my friend Steve would kick giant Steeler fans in the back during the third quarter and I would spend the rest of the game imagining how painful it was going to be to have my head smashed into a stadium armrest. It was a simpler time.  

Wagering on early season NFL games is good fun but not recommended for the faint of heart and the prudent because we honestly have no idea what we're even looking at yet. You'd be better off betting on turtle races. They'd go faster and you wouldn't have to endure NFL announcers while watching them. 

Take for example the Indianapolis Colts. Just a couple weeks ago there was a website with a look remarkably similar to this one that called them out for their long-running quarterback ineptitude that has now led to Daniel Jones who of course is now 2-0 after either running or throwing for all five of the Colts' touchdowns. It's like he's channeling the ghost of who John Elway could have been in that uniform (still too soon? really?). 

We won't be doing full slates of games this year because one would be foolish to think that he knows how every game is going to turn out so instead we'll just focus on the ones where the spirit really moves us.  

Indianapolis by 4.5 over Tennessee: The Pick - Titans

With all of that being said about the Colts, we're picking against them. Mediocre NFL quarterbacks and teams tend to revert to the mean even against lesser opponents. Also, we picked the Titans to go over 5.5 wins this year so we're going to need them to get that first one soon to keep pace.    

Jacksonville by 1.5 over Houston: The Pick - Texans

I just don't see the Texans starting 0-3, especially against a Jags team that couldn't beat the Bengals despite the gift of not only no Joe Burrow for most of the game but also three Jake Browning interceptions. There aren't many reliable truths in the NFL but one of them is that, when the other team's quarterback goes out in the first half and they turn the ball over more than you do, you're supposed to win the game. Speaking of which, Trevor Lawrence is currently on pace for a TD/INT ratio of 34/26 which basically makes him a far less entertaining version of Jameis Winston.

L.A. Chargers by 2.5 over Denver: The Pick - Chargers

Taking Jim Harbaugh teams favored by less than 3 points at home feels like a good rule that could permeate these picks throughout the season. Interesting to note that he's the only coach in the AFC West who has not won a Super Bowl. I'm sure the typically nonchalant Harbaugh pays that fact no mind whatsoever.  

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