Fantasy Golf: The Wells Fargo Preview

I told you no one knew who was going to win in freakin' New Orleans. I'm in a pair of one and done leagues (nerd alert) with 100+ combined players and the best pick was Charley Hoffman who finished tied for 5th. The Crossing Trend Favorite ("CTF")* Rickie Fowler didn't even scare the cut and I felt pretty good getting out of there with Graham DeLaet and his tie for 29th. You know who's not feeling pretty good these days? The PGA Tour which had to sell a product that featured Seung-Yul Noh, Andrew Svoboda, Robert Streb and Jeff Overton battling down the stretch. I tried to get involved three times but couldn't stick with it and wound-up watching the last forty-five minutes of Elysium** instead. When a guy who writes something called the Fantasy Golf Report picks the tail-end of a "C-" movie over the final five holes of your golf tournament, you may want to find a new way to pitch your product. (Modified Stableford scoring system anyone?)

Anyway, here's the carnage that were the FGR picks:  

Last Week's Report Card: D+

1. Graham DeLaet - T29th

Speaking of bad movies, guess
who wants to be an actress?
This isn't going to end well.

2. Russell Knox - M/C
3. Rickie Fowler - M/C
4. Will Mackenzie - M/C
5. Fredrik Jacobson - T29th

The Muddling Along Report

Hyundai: Gary Woodland - $130,000
Sony: Chris Kirk - $604,800
Humana: Charles Howell, III - $12,198
Farmers: Bill Haas - $20,740
WM Phoenix: Billy Horschel - M/C
Pebble Beach: Russell Knox - $46,860
Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - $723,600
Match Play: Hunter Mahan - $148,000
Honda Classic: Graeme McDowell - $15,600
WGC-Cadillac: Rory McIlroy - $76,000
Valspar: Harris English - $23,940
Palmer: Justin Rose - M/C
Texas Open: Kevin Chappell - M/C
Houston Open: Keegan Bradley - $18,374
Masters: Matt Kuchar - $342,000
Heritage: Jim Furyk - $187,050
Zurich: Graham DeLaet - $44,200

Season Total: $2,393,362

Now we head down to Quail Hollow where you used to be able to count on a restoration of order until Derek Ernst and David Lynn threw a wrench in the works last year. Prior to that, your list of winners was pretty sound and included Tiger, Rory and Vijay between 2005 and 2010. Runner-ups during that stretch included Sergio, Bubba and Phil. That's a lot of first name talent. If I hadn't wasted Rory at the Cadillac, I would strongly consider using him here because he obviously loves the course (1st in 2010, 2nd in 2012 and he holds the course record of 62). But since I'm forced to go in another direction, I'm going to keep pounding Webb Simpson (I'm pretty sure I pick him every year) based solely on the fact that he's a freakin' member of the club so he's going to win this thing eventually right?

By the way, there is a lot of love for Lee Westwood out there this week based on past performance at the Wells Fargo but Lee won in Malaysia last weekend*** and I have a hard time picking guys who just spent 10,000 miles celebrating in a private jet. I have to believe that's going to catch-up with him at some point on the Saturday back nine.****  

Looks like it was a late night in Kuala Lumpur.

The Wells Fargo Favorites

1. Rory McIlroy - 7 to 1
2. Phil Mickelson - 16 to 1
3. Lee Westwood - 16 to 1
4. Justin Rose - 20 to 1
5. Jim Furyk - 25 to 1

The FGR Wells Fargo Picks

1. Webb Simpson
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Jim Furyk
4. Robert Karlsson
5. Chesson Hadley

Footnotes

* I just made that up. The CTF is the guy everyone likes based on his past history of success on the upcoming course combined with his recent solid play. For the record, the CTF has sucked this year.

** My review of Elysium is that Matt Damon's next charitable cause should be the I Paid to See Elysium Project where he raises $300M to reimburse every poor bastard who bought a ticket for that steaming pile of crap. Jodie Foster should kick-in her paycheck no questions asked or start her own project called The Searching for Clarice Starling Initiative.  

*** Actually it was 10 days ago so take this advice for what it's worth. I must have gotten ahold of an old edition of Malaysia Today.

**** It should be noted that I dropped Westwood from my full season team for Russell Knox back in March. In light of my struggles this season, that is nothing but good news for Westwood who will probably win his first major and bad news for Knox who will probably be eaten by a walrus. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

The Promised Land - Part 2

So when we last left our hero (me), he was killing on stage with the local country club crowd. Flash forward about five and half hours and it's 4:40 a.m. on Wednesday and my alarm is due to go off any minute but I'm already awake, if you can call it that. You see, thus far the Fantasy Golf Report hasn't quite yielded the financial windfall that it takes to support the lifestyle that feeds the Fantasy Golf Report. I'm not sure it's quite a Catch-22 but it is a bit ironic.

As luck would have it, on this the day after one of my favorite golf/social events, I would be required to drive about 45 minutes and address a group of approximately 75 people at 6:30 a.m. I am normally very fond of numbers but on that morning 45, 75 and 6:30 were not my friends. When you're twenty-five years old and you wake-up on mornings like this, there is a part of you that says "fuck it," what's the worst that could happen if I don't post. But there is a metamorphosis between twenty-five and forty-five that ends with you being the guy who can drag himself out of bed under almost any circumstances and get the job done.* You even reach a point where you almost become numb to it as if you're talking to your head and your stomach like they're your kids, "don't even bother guys, we're doing this whether you like or not so you might as well suck it up." Generally they fall in line.

By 6:00 a.m. I was at Dunkin' Donuts grabbing a couple blueberry muffins and by 6:15 a.m. I was at my desk going over my notes. Thirty minutes later, I got my cue and started my spiel. I'm not going to get into the topic because that's not germane to the story but I will say it was dry . . . really dry and even the short version was going to take me fifteen minutes to deliver. Oh yeah, I had pretty much lost my voice due to a lingering illness and not aided I'm sure by the previous night's activities.**

"Is this noticeable?"

At the five minute mark, I was feeling ok and began having thoughts like, "I'm going to make it" but then at about the seven minute mark I thought, "you are speaking total gibberish and no one has any idea what you're talking about." The looks on the faces of my audience only served to confirm that theory (because for the most part, they really had no idea what in the hell I was talking about). Then I started sweating. Not quite Albert Brooks level sweating but I'm pretty sure beads were forming. Then I thought "man I hope my sweat doesn't smell like bourbon."

Due to the deteriorating circumstances, I drew things to a close rather quickly. I think I may have actually stopped mid-sentence and asked "any questions?" The consensus appeared to be that the value of any additional information I could provide was far outweighed by the amount of misery I was spreading with the agonizing sound of my voice. Either that or there was a collective decision to have mercy on me. Either way, I was done. The meeting droned-on for the better part of another hour during which I drifted in an out of semi-consciousness inspired only by the prospect of locking my office door and passing-out on the couch.

As it turned-out, I did one better by just bailing on the rest of the day altogether at about 11:00 a.m. Unfortunately, it was a Bay Swim training day and I have made a personal commitment that on such days I am going to jump into the pool regardless of mental, physical or gastrointestinal condition and swim for at least an hour or until I sink like a stone, whichever comes first. There have been a few days where my body just feels like a half-submerged canoe being paddled back and forth and there are other days where the pool serves as something of a cure all. This day was more of the former than the latter.

I was able to grind-out the full hour and as I left the pool wreaking of bourbon and chlorine,*** it had turned into a beautiful day that had suddenly become one of great accomplishment for me. And then it got better . . . a lot better . . . because as I was checking my emails on my way to the car, the following subject line jumped out at me, "CAN YOU PLAY PINE VALLEY ON FRIDAY?" (Ahhh, The Promised Land . . . now I get it). I think my response was, "how can I say no?" How could I indeed? Sure we had plans to host guests for cocktails that Friday evening but fortunately they were golf friends who would understand why I would be unceremoniously kicking them to the curb. I'm not quite sure about the wives though. I may have managed to lower my approval rating among the ladies with that one which is not easy when you're already polling in the single digits. But the FGW blessed my decision so all systems were go and my conscience was clear.****

And you know what, Pine Valley deserves its own entry so let's go ahead and pick this up sometime over the weekend with Part 3.

Footnotes

* My 11th grade history teacher once told a group of us that the sign you have a drinking problem is when it impacts your ability to make it to work in the morning. As long as you can do that, you're ok. I should probably qualify that advice by pointing out that he was about 60 years old, single, wore JC Penny sweaters everyday and drove a car that was manufactured during the Truman administration. Oh and he gave no indication that this was his chosen lifestyle so take that alcoholism test for what it's worth.

. . . and Joan Holloway.

** At least I avoided pretending to smoke a cigarette which I've been known to do on occasion. I blame Mad Men and specifically Roger Sterling.

*** Per Dave Attell . . . "Just because two things smell good on their own doesn't necessarily mean you can put them together. Like cotton candy and the sweet smell of whiskey . . . holy shit was someone just fucking a clown in here?!?"

**** When choosing a wife, do not underestimate the value of her capacity to think like a dude when it counts. This is a crucial trait under these circumstances because you don't want to be making your first Pine Valley run under even the faintest guilt cloud.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

The Promised Land* - Part 1

Let's take a break from doling out misguided fantasy golf advice and have some fun shall we?

It was already going to be a squirrely week. On Tuesday I would play in the annual Masters outing that has become the unofficial kick-off to the FGR's golf season. It's a one round tournament with teams of four followed by dinner and multiple forms of wagering on the year's first major. I generally play golf with three of my best friends then about another six join us for dinner. Combine that with the fact that winter has been steadily kicking us in the nuts for the past four months leaving us all desperate for an excuse to go out and get sideways on a Tuesday afternoon, and you had the recipe for a Hank Moody** type situation which was fine except for the fact that I would have to get up earlier than an a.m. DJ the next morning and pretend to be an adult (more on that later).

One form of wagering at this event involves lottery tickets and one of the traditions that goes along with the drawing is that a joke is told prior to the pulling of each ticket. I don't know how long this has been going on but when I first started coming, all of the jokes were told by one older distinguished looking gentleman who would make one of the events prominent attendees the subject and, best of all, the jokes were dirty. This was a bit of a revelation to me because up until then, I was under the impression that all Baltimore country clubs were uptight retirement communities where you would occasionally see a 14 year old kid dressed like a 50 year old man. So for me the inaugural version of this event was like Tom Cruise going to the party in Eyes Wide Shut but with dick jokes instead of an orgy and frankly, I'm more of a dick joke guy than an orgy guy. (That may not have come out right).

Anyway, the guy who used to tell the jokes retired and moved to Florida so for the last few years, there has been a rotation of "comedians" who have ranged from laugh out loud to pleasantly funny to I think you missed the point of the event. Without going into too much detail, let's just say that one guy thought it would be high comedy to recount (in agonizing detail) the intestinal issues he had on the first day he came to use the club as a member. I think the consensus on that story was that you had to be there to appreciate it . . . and we were all glad that we weren't.

"So I'm walking into the clubhouse and
I've got my sand wedge in one hand
and this pile of shit in the other!"

This year an announcement was made that anyone who had a joke was welcome to come up and tell it as the house comics had apparently run out of material. Needless to say, I started racking my brain but my problem was twofold: (1) I am not a joke teller. I rely on others to say and do things that I can comment on in a smarmy fashion. It's similar to the way I play basketball. I am a selfish role player in that I don't want to handle the ball and I don't want to play defense. I just want to come off a screen and have you throw me a well-timed pass so I can drain the three (and God help you if you don't hit me coming-off that screen); and (2) from a cogency standpoint, I had already begun sliding as the brown liquor had reared it's beautiful head on the back nine and the grip on the reigns was beginning to loosen.

I think we were about two thirds of the way through the lottery picks when I had an epiphany and marched up to the guys with the microphone to tell them I was ready to go in the game. Apparently, things were running really dry at that point because they told me I was up next. And when they handed me the mike, I proceeded to thank my host, announce how excited I was to play in this event every year and then I offered-up the following, inserting my host as the subject of course (we'll call him Al):

Al and his wife are having a bit of a struggle so they decide to visit a marriage counselor. After a few minutes of them airing what seem to be irreconcilable*** differences, the counselor stops them and says, "let's slow down and figure-out if there is anything you two have in common that could serve as our foundation going forward . . . Al, we'll start with you." Al sits silently for what seems like several minutes before saying, "well, neither one of us knows how to suck a dick."

At that point, I handed the microphone to the head pro and walked away. I think (hope) people laughed but I really don't remember as I was just trying to get the hell out of the middle of the room and back to the safety of our table. What does this have to do with The Promised Land? Nothing yet. Frankly, I didn't plan to get so involved with this part of the story so we're going to have to make it a two parter. See you tomorrow.

Footnotes

* I had originally planned to call this Mecca but didn't really want to thrust myself into a Salman Rushdie type situation (which I may have just done anyway).

Fortunately for me, I look nothing like
David Duchovny and I have no rap.

** If you've never watched Showtime's Californication, it's worth a few weeks of your time on Netflix and you can bail sometime around the end of Season 3 when it turns to shit. Wikipedia describes Hank Moody thusly, "an esteemed but erratic writer who frequently becomes embroiled in bizarre, and in some cases, scandalous situations." Remove the words "esteemed" and "scandalous" and replace the word "frequently" with "occasionally" and I'm pretty sure that's me. (The FGW just winced).

*** There is no way I attempted to say "irreconcilable." At least I hope I didn't because that has to be on the short list of words you should never try to say when you're drinking along with "specificity," "cinnamon" and "officer" (a simple "sir" will do in that situation).

Click here for Part 2.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Fantasy Golf: The Zurich Classic Preview

We're going to make quick work of the Zurich Classic Preview because (a) no one really has any idea who is going to win this thing and (b) it sports one of the weaker fields of an event not competing with the British Open or the WGC Cadillac Championship. But first, I need to eat a little crow after getting into it with a prickly guy named Josh on some message board last week over Luke Donald's prospects at the RBC Heritage. Congratulations Josh. You were right and I was wrong. Let's try not to make it so personal next time. I do have feelings.   

As for this week's picks, who knows? This tournament doesn't seem to have a type as it has history of hitting on everyone from Bubba Watson* to Jason Dufner which is like going from a blond volleyball player to a redheaded gymnast. So I'm going with my gut and a couple of guys I'm already vested in who seem due for a win. Not to mention, I've got something fun brewing for later in the week that is more worthy of our time.

The Zurich Favorites

"Hey lady . . . can we have
our volleyball back!?!?"

1. Justin Rose - 12 to 1
2. Rickie Fowler - 18 to 1
3. Keegan Bradley - 22 to 1
4. Graham DeLaet - 22 to 1
5. Matt Every - 28 to 1
6. Ryan Palmer - 28 to 1
7. Patrick Reed - 33 to 1
8. Charley Hoffman - 33 to 1

The FGR One and Done Picks

1. Graham DeLaet
2. Russell Knox
3. Rickie Fowler
4. Will Mackenzie
5. Fredrik Jacobson 

Last Week's Report Card: B- 

1. Jim Furyk - T7th
2. Will Mackenzie - M/C
3. Kevin Na - M/C

So you were just telling me about
your gymnastics career. Please go on.

4. Russell Knox - T9th
5. Billy Horschel - T68th

The Signs of Life Report

Hyundai: Gary Woodland - $130,000
Sony: Chris Kirk - $604,800
Humana: Charles Howell, III - $12,198
Farmers: Bill Haas - $20,740
WM Phoenix: Billy Horschel - M/C
Pebble Beach: Russell Knox - $46,860
Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - $723,600
Match Play: Hunter Mahan - $148,000
Honda Classic: Graeme McDowell - $15,600
WGC-Cadillac: Rory McIlroy - $76,000
Valspar: Harris English - $23,940
Palmer: Justin Rose - M/C
Texas Open: Kevin Chappell - M/C
Houston Open: Keegan Bradley - $18,374
Masters: Matt Kuchar - $342,000

Heritage: Jim Furyk - $187,050

Season Total: $2,349,162

Footnotes

Not to mention, it looks like it was
signed by some guy named "Biff."

* Speaking of Bubba, I won this Masters replica flag signed by him on Monday with a closest to the pin of about 15 feet (it was not an elite field). The only problem is that I hold a flag signed by Bubba in about the same regard as I would a football signed by Ben Roethlisberger or a baseball signed by any current member of the Boston Red Sox. I guess I'll hang it in the conference room at my office with all of the Redskins crap. It should fit in well.    

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

Fantasy Golf: The RBC Heritage Preview

So let's go ahead and dispense with the pleasantries. That Masters sucked. I watched almost every televised shot* and, other than a stretch of holes on the front nine of the last round where Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth looked like they might be getting ready to go Thunderdome** on us, there was almost no drama. Consider that the six players who finished tied for 5th or better and had a realistic chance to win when they made the turn played the 13th and 15th holes a combined two under with ten pars and two birdies. No eagles, no doubles . . . no fun. It was almost as painfully boring as watching a baseball game from start to finish . . . almost. (And yes, I went there).

The only bright spot was that the FGR finally produced a top five pick after an almost two month long drought. But man it could have been so much better. After making birdie on the 2nd hole and then chipping in for another one on the 3rd, Matt Kuchar was tied for the lead at -6. He then proceeded to four-putt the 4th for a momentum killing double. That mess must have had a lingering effect because Kuch's only birdie the rest of the way was from about two feet on 11 despite having great chances on 12 and 16. The bogeys on 17 and 18 were just gentle kick to the shin reminders that this is not my year.

"Do you think I'm cute Mr. Kuchar?
Do you think I'm funny?!?"

I have always said that I will draft Kuch for my season long team because I find him so easy to root for but there were some dark points on that back nine (like when he pulled his tee shot on 13) when I wished that Sgt. Hartman would storm onto the fairway and start screaming, "I'm gonna give you three seconds, exactly three fucking seconds to wipe that stupid looking grin off your face or I will . . ." (you can Google the rest if you don't know it but I can't cross that line with my boy as we still have a major to win this season).

In an ongoing effort to keep the FGR fresh, I've moved Last Week's Report Card up and dropped this week's picks down. In related stories, I am wearing brown socks today, I had an Asian Cashew Chicken Salad from Wendy's*** for lunch and Speedos were 25% off at Sports Authority so I bought two.**** Now I alll I need is a Groupon for manscaping and I'm ready for Memorial Day weekend at the club.

Last Week's FGR Report Card: C-

1. Matt Kuchar - T5th

By now we all know that Angie Watson
is very tall. But do you know who else is
tall? Rianne Ten Haken. So there you go. 

2. Phil Mickelson - M/C
3. Adam Scott - T14th
4. Sergio Garcia - M/C
5. Jason Day - T21st
6. Nick Watney - T44th
7. Dustin Johnson - M/C
8. Ernie Els - M/C
9. Rory McIlroy - T8th
10. Branden Grace - M/C

The Ray of Hope Report

Hyundai: Gary Woodland - $130,000

Sony: Chris Kirk - $604,800
Humana: Charles Howell, III - $12,198
Farmers: Bill Haas - $20,740
WM Phoenix: Billy Horschel - M/C
Pebble Beach: Russell Knox - $46,860
Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - $723,600
Match Play: Hunter Mahan - $148,000
Honda Classic: Graeme McDowell - $15,600
WGC-Cadillac: Rory McIlroy - $76,000
Valspar: Harris English - $23,940
Palmer: Justin Rose - M/C
Texas Open: Kevin Chappell - M/C

Houston Open: Keegan Bradley - $18,374

Masters: Matt Kuchar - $342,000

Season Total - $2,162,112

Let's look ahead to arguably the biggest letdown event in all of sports, especially now that they don't play the Pro Bowl the week after the Super Bowl. Even with it's B+ field, respectable roster of past winners and picturesque setting, the RBC Heritage is always going to feel like watching a cover band. Anyway, the guy who usually wins is the one who hits the most fairways and Jim Furyk is really good at that and he's playing well and he won this thing in 2010 and you know the drill by now.   

Oh yeah, apparently Michelle
Buswell is also very tall.

This Week's Favorites

1. Jordan Spieth - 18 to 1
2. Matt Kuchar - 18 to 1
3. Jason Day - 18 to 1
4. Luke Donald - 22 to 1
5. Jim Furyk - 22 to 1

The FGR One and Done Picks

1. Jim Furyk
2. Will Mackenzie
3. Kevin Na
4. Russell Knox
5. Billy Horschel

Footnotes

* I missed all of Friday for a really cool golf related reason that I will cover at some point soon. Let's just say that it more than made-up for the crappy Masters. 

** Yet another dated reference to a movie of my youth, Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome which produced the classic line, "two men enter . . . one man leaves." I felt compelled to identify it because it's from that bygone era when people still liked Mel Gibson.   

*** And it was delicious. You better watch your ass Chick-fil-A. I warned that you would rue the day when you stopped serving the Southwestern Chargrilled Salad. My advice . . . lose the Grilled Market Salad. You're not fooling anybody with all of that fruit.     

**** This is funny because it's true. I actually go through about one Speedo a month because I leave them hanging in the locker room and I assume the cleaning people treat them as they would a used diaper. Before you get too repulsed, I should add that they are the long kind that stretch to the top of your knee but I don't think that was any consolation to the nice young lady at the counter who probably now has to fight-off the image of a guy with a hairy neck who looked sixty years old to her squeezing into one of those things. ("Honey . . . you haven't even touched your dinner.")

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.  

Fantasy Golf: The Masters Preview

One of the best things about being your own editor is that you can write about whatever the hell you want and that is a nice luxury to have this week because it means that I can write about arguably the greatest sporting event in the world instead of the current health of a player who appears to be hitting the downside of his career like Franz Klammer. You see I'm not old (per se), but I have been around long enough to remember Larry Mize's chip-in, Freddie's ball stopping on 12, Greg Norman's meltdown, Ben Crenshaw breaking down on the 18th green and Tom Watson coming back from dunking his ball on 12 to eagle 13 and 15 in 1991 only to double 18 and lose by two shots to Ian Woosnam (the most underrated Masters of my lifetime). And then there was the 1986 Masters which came along before I even liked the sport but it sucked me in because even a non-fan could appreciate that something pretty damn cool was happening. All of those Masters were played before 1997, the year it became about one guy.

And how about the recent tournaments? We had Charl Schwartzel reeling-off four straight birdies to close it out in 2011 followed by Bubba Watson surviving an early albatross from Louis Oostuizen to win in a playoff in 2012 (if you want to relive that one, check-out the FGR's timeline of the final round here). And then last year Adam Scott and Angel Cabrera traded haymakers until dusk when Scott finally put it away with one of the most clutch putts in Masters history. At no point during the back nine of those three Masters did I find myself wanting for anything that the event was not already delivering. Especially last year when I eschewed the final round timeline to watch it in a bar with a bunch of dudes. That took the viewing experience to a whole new level now known as the "Masters Playoff Irish Car Bombathon" (you know, in honor of Angel Carbrera's Irish heritage).

So let's see if you can
guess this week's theme. 

I'm pretty sure I'm preaching to the choir because if you're reading the Fantasy Golf Report, then chances are that you either (a) feel similarly about the Masters or (b) just visit the site for the pictures. Either way, you don't really care who is in the mix on Sunday because you know it's all about the setting and the drama. And now that we have the genuflecting out of the way, let's get down to who we have winning this thing.

Rule No. 1 for handicapping the Masters is that the winner rarely comes from nowhere a la Ben Curtis or Shaun Micheel. The closest thing we've had to that guy lately is Trevor Immelman in 2008 but he had finished tied for 6th at the 2007 PGA Championship and 5th at the 2005 Masters. A Russell Henley or John Senden may stop in to say hello like Marc Leishman did last year but they won't be drinking with the bartenders when the lights go on and the bouncers are driving the riff raff towards the door.

What that means is that the Masters tends to be very chalky. Last year the top three were Scott, Cabrera and Jason Day. The year before that it was Bubba, Louis, Matt Kuchar, Lee Westwood and Phil Mickelson. In 2011 it was Schwartzel, Day and Scott so the bottom line is that you don't want to get too cute or you'll find yourself sitting there with your thumb up your ass on Sunday hoping a guy like Harris English or Gary Woodland can get hot and eek out a top ten finish while the smart money is on guys like Scott, Mickelson, Kuchar, Day and Rory McIlroy . . . at least two of whom will probably have a shot at the green jacket come the back nine on Sunday.

Until yesterday, I had been locked-in on Kuchar with this pick for almost a year. He's got all of the credentials with a tie for 8th in 2013 and a tie for 3rd in 2012. He has also been winning tournaments over the last two years that would seem to be logical stepping stones on the way to his first major (The Players, The Memorial and the Match Play). But I'm not quite sure what to make of those squirrely shots he hit down the stretch on Sunday when all he had to do was put the ball in the middle of the green on either 16 or 18 to win. The one on 18 is especially troubling because he plays a fade but he hit it left into the water. Then in the playoff he compensated and hit it right into the bunker. Maybe it's good he didn't win because he learned something from the experience? I'm just not sure I buy that.

The problem is that I see glaring flaws when it comes to the next six or seven guys.* Scott and McIlroy are very shaky putters and, with regard to Scott, I think it is highly unlikely that anyone is going back to back at Augusta with the depth of the current field. Mickelson and Day both have injury issues the severity of which are not really clear. And if you're nervous about Kuchar's ability to closeout his first major, then the prospect of Dustin Johnson or Sergio Garcia protecting a one shot lead with three to play should terrify you.

So that leads me back to Kuch. I can't help but thinking that it just feels like his time. As for the rest of the top ten, I went chalk for the next four and then I alternated in some guys who are in the 100 to 1 range** because you know at least one long shot is going to find his way into the top five with a backdoor 67 on Sunday. My favorite for that guy is Nick Watney who plays well at Augusta even when he's not playing well anywhere else (T13th last year). I could also see Ernie making a semi-sentimental run and I have Branden Grace as my random guy who makes the top ten.

This may be the most wide-open Masters ever as I just counted twenty three players in the field who I would not be surprised to see in a green jacket on Sunday. The last three to do that have been first-time major winners and I think that trend is going to continue this week. Either way, I feel like we're in for another epic Sunday and I can practically hear the shot of Baileys and Jameson clinking the bottom of the pint glass right now.          

The Favorites

No, it's not women who look like
they just dropped their keys.

1. Rory McIlroy - 9 to 1
2. Adam Scott - 10 to 1
3. Phil Mickelson - 12 to 1
4. Jason Day - 16 to 1
5. Matt Kuchar - 18 to 1
6. Henrik Stenson - 22 to 1
7. Dustin Johnson - 22 to 1
8. Sergio Garcia - 22 to 1
9. Bubba Watson - 25 to 1
10. Justin Rose - 25 to 1

The FGR Top Ten

1. Matt Kuchar
2. Phil Mickelson
3. Adam Scott
4. Sergio Garcia
5. Jason Day
6. Nick Watney
7. Dustin Johnson
8. Ernie Els
9. Rory McIlroy
10. Branden Grace

Last Week's FGR Report Card: D

It's "green" baby. Bring it!!!

1. Keegan Bradley - T43rd
2. Jordan Spieth - M/C
3. Graham DeLaet - T19th
4. Jimmy Walker - T24th
5. Louis Oostuizen - M/C

The Damage to Date Report

Hyundai: Gary Woodland - $130,000
Sony: Chris Kirk - $604,800
Humana: Charles Howell, III - $12,198
Farmers: Bill Haas - $20,740
WM Phoenix: Billy Horschel - M/C
Pebble Beach: Russell Knox - $46,860
Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - $723,600
Match Play: Hunter Mahan - $148,000
Honda Classic: Graeme McDowell - $15,600
WGC-Cadillac: Rory McIlroy - $76,000
Valspar: Harris English - $23,940
Palmer: Justin Rose - M/C
Texas Open: Kevin Chappell - M/C

Houston Open: Keegan Bradley - $18,374

Season Total - $1,820,112

Footnotes

* To simplify this process, I had to remove some guys from the equation because I don't think their games as currently constructed suit Augusta. That list includes Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose and Jason Dufner. I just don't see those three contending and I also don't see Bubba getting back into the mix quite yet though he will be a threat down the road.

"When I'm wrong . . .
I say I'm wrong." 

** This is also due in part to an email from a reader who correctly pointed-out that I've gotten way too chalky in my picks and that he can go to any website to find-out who the favorites are. What do we always say in these situations Dr. Houseman?


Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Fantasy Golf: The Pre-Masters Redraft Part 2

I feel ya Steve.

Let us continue with 11-30* (click here for Part 1 and note that I feel like my head is in vice** which makes it very hard to have a sense of humor about anything so bear with me):

11. Justin Rose (8): We know two things, (1) Rose is capable of winning any of the majors and (2) if he's still available in this spot, you're taking him.

12. Graham DeLaet (18): DeLaet hits a lot of greens (currently 4th in GIR) and he's an above-average putter. Other than the fact that he probably had the Canadian flag stitched to his backpack when he travelled through Europe,*** there are not many flaws and he is probably the best player in the world without a tour PGA Tour win.

13. Henrik Stenson (4): Stenson has not looked sharp at all so far this season and that was before his lackluster performance in Houston where he finished tied for 54th. His incredible ball-striking has always covered-up his weak putting and that was the case last year when he was absurdly 1st in greens in regulation and 7th in driving accuracy. You could putt using an oblong apparatus with a name that rhymes with "wildo"**** and win golf tournaments if you hit the ball like that.

14. Bubba Watson (NR): Not only did we not have Bubba in our top 30 at the start of the season, we went so far as to include him on our bust potential list with Billy Horschel and Hideki Matsuyama. Oops. Bubba seems to have finally absorbed his Masters win and is back to being a threat every time he tees it up.

Bubba's not the only Watson
we've been underrating.

15. Harris English (21): I almost overlooked English because he skipped the Texas tournaments to presumably get ready for his first Masters (which is what you're supposed to do if you're on the verge of a breakout season). The fact that he's only played in three career majors (two PGA's and one British) has me a little nervous but he may be the best overall ball-striker right now ranking 2nd in GIR and 20th in driving distance. Unfortunately, he's another lousy putter. (Why can't any of these guys putt?)

16. Graeme McDowell (23): Time to insert a player who is currently in the top ten in strokes gained putting. It came down to McDowell, Webb Simpson and Jimmy Walker. Simpson is showing all of the signs of a player who's wife is about to have a baby (erratic play and his last one was almost two years ago which means he's in range) so I'm avoiding him and we'll get to Jimmy Walker in a couple spots.

17. Jordan Spieth (19): He probably won't last this long because someone in your draft is going think Spieth can win a major this year. I don't but if you do, bump him up ten spots and go for it.

18. Jimmy Walker (30): This feels about right for the guy who is displaying quite the all-around game this season. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let's remember that Walker has only played in four majors since 2002 and the only time he cashed a check was a tie for 21st at the 2012 PGA Championship. The road to bad fantasy golf teams is littered with players who made their reputations by one great stretch between October and February. 

19. Keegan Bradley (16): Bradley is a bit of a poor man's Rory McIlroy in that he has the ability to ignite at any time but his ceiling is not quite as high. This is a pick based on potential and the fact that Bradley tends to be a big game player. His game is ideal for Augusta and one of these years he's going to figure it out and make a run at the green jacket.

20. Bill Haas (13): We had a three way battle for the last spot in the top 20 among Haas, Brandt Snedeker and Webb Simpson a/k/a the guys who've kind of overslept this year. The most concerning is Snedeker because he usually shines during the California and Arizona tournaments (in the last two seasons he has wins at Pebble and the Farmers along with 2nd place finishes at the Farmers and Waste Management) but the best he could muster this year was a tie for 58th at the Humana. That leaves Haas and Simpson and Haas feels more reliable right now.

21. Webb Simpson (9): If he's available here, you're taking him so let's move on.

22. Patrick Reed (NR): I know HE thinks he's one of the top five players in the world but those spots are usually reserved for players who have at least competed in a major. I honestly don't know if he's a steal at this spot or a reach but this is about where I would start looking at him.

23. Charl Schwartzel (20): I might not be the best person to ask about Charl because I got burned when I took him in the second round of my 2013 season long draft. (I took Bubba in the first round - it was not my finest hour). Everyone keeps telling us what a solid all-around player he is but, other than his Masters win in 2011, all of that skill has not translated to jack squat in the States over the last two years so this is a bit of a gamble with a lot of upside.

24. Rickie Fowler (24): He hasn't done anything this year that would encourage us to move him up or down so here he is right where we had him in January.

25. Jim Furyk (NR): Furyk has been the forgotten man since he won the 2010 FedEx Cup but he's still ranked 23rd in the world and he almost won the PGA Championship last year proving that he could still sneak another major title onto his resume.

SHOOTER!!!

26. Steve Stricker (17): I really just included Stricker because he's from Wisconsin and I wanted an opportunity to ask this question again - how do you let the guy who appears to be the second coming of Reggie Miller touch the ball much less get a shot off under those circumstances? With the game on the line, shooters like Aaron Harrison honestly believe that they will make anything from inside half-court and he's proven his mettle enough times during the tournament that you have to make someone else beat you. I lost sleep over this.

27. Ian Poulter (NR): Remember, we're giving extra love to guys who are threats in the majors and Poulter has four top tens in the last two years. He's also a fun guy to have for those random hours of coverage when he goes on his inevitable birdie binges.

28. Chris Kirk (27): Another guy we think we had pegged correctly in January.

29. Lee Westwood (26): A few weeks ago I dropped Westwood from my season-long squad. I have been the kiss of death this year with the latest being the gag job by Matt Kuchar in Houston (my first round pick). Put it all together and you're probably looking at Westwood's first major title.

30. Gary Woodland (NR): Woodland has not missed a cut this year and he's currently qualified for all of the majors except for the PGA Championship (and he almost definitely will be for that one too when the time comes).

Notable omissions: Tiger Woods, Brandt Snedeker and Louis Oostuizen. Injuries are nothing to be trifled with in fantasy golf and we either know those guys are dealing with them (Woods and Oostuizen) or we suspect they are (Snedeker). Someone in your draft is going to jump too early on these three. Don't be that guy.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Footnotes

* The only requirement for every player in this top 30 is that they must be currently entered in the Masters. If you're drafting a team at this stage of the season and you pick a player this early who is not going to Augusta, then I can't help you.

** About five weeks ago I started eating better, working-out six days a week and I cut my drinking back to a level that can barely even be called drinking anymore. During that time, I've been smacked with the flu twice. What's your take on that Bishop Pickering?

"There is no God." 

*** Young Canadians traveling through Europe go to great lengths to make it clear that they are not Americans because of our well-earned reputation of being crass tourists. You'd think after all of these years of being mocked for it, we'd stop raising our voice so that people who don't speak English would understand us better. Nope.

**** You have no idea how badly I wanted to use the real word there but the FGR is not ready to cross that line . . . yet.

Fantasy Golf: The Pre-Masters Redraft Part 1

I get the impression that there are a lot of fantasy golfers* who delay the start of their season until the week before the Masters and, while I don't agree with that approach because it means a wasted opportunity to have a stake in almost twenty relatively meaningless tournaments, I understand it. At the FGR, we try to cater to all fans, even the non-purists, so for those types who pick all of the salted almonds out of the nut dish, we present Part 1 of the 2014 PGA Tour Top 30 Redraft (for the original top 30, click here).** I don't know how many parts there are going to be as it depends on my laziness factor this weekend. We are currently at LAZCON 3 so I'm envisioning a two parter with some really thin commentary towards the end.

1. Matt Kuchar (2): We only had Kuch ranked behind Tiger at the start of the season and he has done nothing to change our minds with four top tens in seven events to start 2014. He is currently 11/1 to win a major behind guys like Jordan Spieth and Sergio Garcia which is outrageous considering that he is by far the most proven player over the last two years who has not won one (winner of the 2012 Players, 2013 Match Play and the 2013 Memorial). On top of that, he said "jeepers" today after hitting a bad shot. How can you not want this guy on your squad?

"You'll putt it again Adam and
you'll keep putting it until I um
. . . I mean we are ready."

2. Adam Scott (3): With Tiger out indefinitely, we can stop arguing about the best player in the world for a while. From 2011-2013, Scott had seven top ten finishes in majors including three last year with his win at the Masters being one of them. His putting issues at the Arnold Palmer were a little disconcerting but he'll work those out or Stevie Williams will beat him with a live stingray.

3. Dustin Johnson (7): Since the start of 2014, Johnson has played in four stroke play events and has finished T6th, T2nd, 2nd and T4th. He also won the WGC-HSBC Championship. In the original preview we said he couldn't be trusted. Well now I trust him. (Note that I wrote that before he shot 80 on Thursday but he did play his last twelve holes one under so it was a good 80?)

4. Jason Day (15): I'm not quite sure what we were thinking by ranking Day that low in January. After finishing second at the Masters and U.S. Open in 2011, he basically took 2012 off when his wife had their first baby (golfers with kids on the way are about as productive as I am on Fridays after 2:00 p.m. which is not very). Then he stormed back in 2013 with a 3rd at the Masters, a T2nd at the U.S. Open and a T8th at the PGA. So far this year he's already dominated at the Match Play and finished T2nd at the Farmers. The thumb injury is a bit concerning but at least it's not up his ass like it apparently was in 2012.

5. Hunter Mahan (5): We're sticking to our guns with Mahan who has shown enough solid play so far this year to back-up the expectations he created with strong showings at the U.S. Open and British Open last year. The cool thing about Mahan is that he has the ability to be great in every phase of the game so when he puts it together, look out! (No seriously, LOOK OUT there's someone coming-up behind you and he appears to be holding one of those things things from the old movies that they used to knock guys out with - what in the hell were those things anyway?)

6. Phil Mickelson: I really struggled with this spot because all I could see in the next tier of players was flaws but then I put myself in draft mode and asked myself "self, who would you take with this pick if those other five were gone?" and the answer was Mickelson. His potential to win another major this year with the U.S. Open being played at Pinehurst offsets the troubling back situation. If he had struggled in the first two rounds this week, I may have thought differently but he's been solid. Also, if he wins next week and you passed-up the opportunity to take him with the 6th pick, your Masters viewing experience will suck and you absolutely need to remove that from the equation.

7. Rory McIlroy (10): I bumped Rory up a few spots from the original list because so far it appears that he has his head screwed-on straight again. We know that means he could go on a ridiculous tear at anytime because he has more natural ability than anyone currently playing who also has significant major championship experience (which rules-out Jordan Spieth). He would currently be ranked 105th in strokes gained putting if he had played enough rounds so if he puts the time in on the putting green ZZZZZZzzzzzzzz (let's move on).

8. Zach Johnson (14): This is part safety pick and part belief that I think Zach Johnson is going to win the British Open before he's done. It seems like he never misses a fairway (for good reason) and his last three finishes across the pond (as we like to say) were T16th, T9th and T6th. In the fantasy golf business, we call that "trending" (feel free to use that).

Mrs. Dufner has eclipsed
Mrs. Day and shows no
signs of letting-up.

9. Jason Dufner (11): Dufner tends to check-out for weeks at a time but I still vividly remember the lasers he was shooting at the PGA Championship last year and if he dials that swing up at Pinehurst, I like his chances. Also, his wife is currently at the top of the golf WAG power rankings so that gets him a bit of a bump.

10. Sergio Garcia (NR): I've always contended that Sergio was eventually going to reach a point where we grow tired of disliking him and, when that time comes, he's going to reach his potential. I'm starting to feel like that time is now. The fact that Tiger won't be around to unhinge him every time he's in contention can only help.  

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Footnotes

* How great is it that we get our own name? People who play fantasy football, baseball and basketball (all seventeen of them) don't get to call themselves fantasy footballers, baseballers or basketballers because that would sound make them sound like dorks whereas if you tell someone you're a fantasy golfer . . . never mind. (Sometimes when I write this stuff I feel like I'm about to get a wedgie and stuffed in a locker).

** Note that this is not how we see the overall season ending because then we would have to account for the wins guys like Jimmy Walker and Patrick Reed already have. This is how we see the season going from here with a little extra love given to the players we think will win a major. ("We" of course would be me and my constantly evolving posse of imaginary friends. Right now it consists of a guy who walks around quoting Top Gun all day, two members of a Journey cover band called "Separate Ways" and an angry chain-smoking podiatrist named Steve).

Fantasy Golf: Shell Houston Open Preview

Well if it wasn't official before, it is now. I suck. Two missed cuts in a row and I haven't cracked $100,000 in a full field event with my top pick since mid-February. It's enough to make a man want to stash his golf clubs in the basement, sell his football season tickets and take-up swimming (you already did that) . . . CRAP!!!! You know what this calls for, only the greatest rock bottom scene ever . . .  "I GOT NOWHERE ELSE TO GO!!!"*  

OK. Take a breath. The season doesn't officially start until the Masters. Last year kicked-off in much the same fashion and then I called Adam Scott at the Masters, Matt Kuchar at The Memorial and Tiger at the Bridgestone to get right back in the game (yeah but then five guys in your league picked Dufner at the PGA and passed you for the final money spot . . . DOUBLE CRAP!!!!) I actually feel really good about this week's pick. Keegan Bradley has been showing signs of life lately and plays this course well. Sooner or later that kind of fortune cookie logic is going to pay-off.        

The Favorites

Time to start pushing the
envelope on the Texas thing.

1. Rory McIlroy - 10 to1
2. Dustin Johnson - 14 to 1
3. Henrik Stenson - 16 to 1
4. Keegan Bradley - 22 to 1
5. Phil Mickelson - 25 to 1
6. Matt Kuchar - 25 to 1
7. Sergio Garcia - 25 to 1
8. Jordan Spieth - 25 to 1
9. Hunter Mahan - 28 to 1
10. Charl Schwartzel - 33 to 1

The FGR One and Done Picks

1. Keegan Bradley
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Graham DeLaet
4. Jimmy Walker
5. Louis Oostuizen

I'm not even going to dignify last week's picks with a comment. (If I did, that comment would probably start with an "F" bomb). Instead, how about an impromptu review of White House Down which blew through Starz or Encore or one of those channels between 340 and 390 on Fios last month. If you haven't seen it, here is how to decide if you should. If you loved Die Hard and Air Force One, you will like White House Down. If you just liked those first two movies, you may want to breath on a mirror to make sure you're not dead inside and you can probably skip White House Down. 

If you're still with me, I will tell you the positive are that (a) the bad guys are played by James Woods and Jason Clarke, (b) Richard Jenkins** is in it and (c) the White House makes a pretty good backdrop for an action movie. If they would have just cast Don Cheadle instead of Jamie Foxx and a girl with some onions like Jessica Chastain or Keri Russell instead of acting's answer to cereal that sat in the milk too long Maggie Gyllenhaal, they may have had themselves a legit badass action movie. Instead, they ended-up with Magic Mike and Willie Beamen blowing shit up on Pennsylvania Avenue. Call it an entertaining opportunity wasted.

Last Week's Report Card: F

 . . . I mean really start
pushing the envelope.***

1. Kevin Chappell - M/C
2. Billy Horschel - M/C
3. Jason Kokrak - T31st
4. Brendan Steele - M/C
5. Chris Stroud - DNS

The I Suck Report

Hyundai: Gary Woodland - $130,000
Sony: Chris Kirk - $604,800
Humana: Charles Howell, III - $12,198
Farmers: Bill Haas - $20,740
WM Phoenix: Billy Horschel - M/C
Pebble Beach: Russell Knox - $46,860
Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson - $723,600
Match Play: Hunter Mahan - $148,000
Honda Classic: Graeme McDowell - $15,600
WGC-Cadillac: Rory McIlroy - $76,000
Valspar: Harris English - $23,940
Palmer: Justin Rose - M/C

Texas Open: Kevin Chappell - M/C

Season Total: $1,801,738

Footnotes

* For you kids at home seeing this scene for the first time, "D.O.R." stands for "Discharge on Request" and this movie has arguably the greatest simmering bad blood settling fight of all-time.

** Jenkins owns one of my ten favorite lines in movie history when he drills the tone of the moment in Step Brothers on Christmas Eve after his life has been ruined by the combined buffoonish efforts of his son and stepson. After reaching his breaking point, he simply stands-up from the couch and, with almost no emotion whatsoever, says "I'm gonna go down to the Cheesecake Factory . . . have a drink." If that movie had been made in 1983, I would have substituted Beefsteak Charlie's for the Cheesecake Factory and used that line every year from the time I was fifteen (Beefsteak Charlie's had a fairly liberal I.D. policy).

*** A meeting in my near future is going to begin with, "so let's start by you explaining why you Google the phrase 'sexy cowgirl' every week."

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.