Fantasy Golf: The U.S. Open Preview

Long before I was a perpetually frustrated and emotionally unstable golfer, I was a perpetually frustrated and emotionally unstable tennis player. Much like golf, I always thought I could overcome more talented opponents by trying harder than he did with predictable results that generally resulted in expletive laced equipment abuse and Richie Tenenbaum level meltdowns. 

On one particularly notable occasion, I blew an overhead and then hurled my racket at the back fence in front of where my mother was sitting which meant that I had to jog back there and pick it up in front of her. Words were unnecessary as her death stare did all the talking. My competitive tennis career ended soon thereafter and it was decided that it would be in everyone's best interest if I spent more time getting the shit kicked out of me playing lacrosse. More broken bones . . . less broken rackets.  

Later in my teenage years I actually learned to enjoy the game when my next door neighbors built a pretty sweet court and we'd spend hours playing doubles and getting hammered on Schaeffer and Milwaukee's Best. In the process I learned exactly how much (or little) the adults got along as my parents were avid players and were never invited to play. Not once. Right next door. That's some stone cold immediate vicinity hate right there and to be honest it was warranted because they were all assholes. Fortunately, as with so many things, I didn't let it interfere with my good time.    

In my twisted 11 year old mind,
the obnoxious guy from New York
with the goofy fro was the cool one.

What my on-court struggles did provide was a deep appreciation for tennis greatness and how hard it must be to achieve. I had three posters on my wall as a kid. One was John McEnroe but don't worry, it wasn't that stupid one with him in the trench coat and the line "Rebel with a Cause" (had that one in college). It was an action shot of him approaching the net around the time that he and Bjorn Borg gave us the epic 1980 Wimbledon final that included a fourth set tiebreaker that went to 18-16 before Borg prevailed 8-6 in the fifth. 

That Wimbledon final has long been considered one of the gold standards against which other great matches are measured and that leads us to last Sunday's French Open final between Jannik Sinner of Italy and Carlos Alcaraz of Spain who came into the match ranked #1 and #2 in the world having won the last five grand slams between them. They are not just the immediate future of tennis, they are its present and, on Sunday, they collided to provide one of the most entertaining and gut-wrenching sporting events ever. It didn't quite have the gravitas of Rory's win at Augusta because there wasn't as much at stake but it had at least as many plot twists. 

Consider that they played a total of 385 points and the differential after five and a half hours was one. One fucking point. Sinner actually outscored Alcaraz 193 to 192 but unfortunately for him, 3 of those 192 for Alcaraz came when he faced-down a trio of championship points in the fourth set. He would go on to break Sinner in the next game and then win the tiebreaker 7-3. 

The fifth set opened with what appeared to be a weary and wounded Sinner getting broken again. At that point it seemed clear that the more fit Alcaraz was going to leave him in a ditch by the side of the road but Sinner hung around until crunch time before miraculously breaking him back. The ensuing tiebreaker was an Alcaraz blowout and that anticlimactic finish puts this match a tier below Borg v. McEnroe and the 2008 Wimbledon final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal that the latter won by taking the fifth set 9-7. Alcaraz v. Sinner is in the conversation though and, when it comes to having your name mentioned, the company doesn't come any loftier than that.    

Thanks for indulging me. Now on to the matter at hand. 

GOLF ANALYSIS

I don't take much of what Jack Nicklaus says these days seriously because he's become something of a self-aggrandizing jackass but, back when he dominating the game, he was not afraid to lay down hard truths like this one:

The U.S. Open flag eliminates a lot of players. Some players just weren't meant to win the U.S. Open. Quite often, they know it.

Twelve of the last fourteen U.S Open champions have multiple major titles or at least a Players Championship to their credit. The only exceptions are Gary Woodland in 2019 and Wyndham Clark in 2023 and they've still got time to bolster their resumes but Jack's point is still valid if they don't. It's a tough test that's usually won by a worthy player.    

Nowhere is it tougher than at Oakmont and, if you don't believe me, turn on the Golf Channel for as long as you can stand to hear them yammer about it. The last time they played it here was nine years ago and it's intriguing how many currently relevant players faired well. Dustin Johnson won it and he's in the field this week but no longer qualifies as currently relevant, however, these guys do:

• Shane Lowry (T2)
• Sergio Garcia (T5)
• Jason Day (T8)
• Brooks Koepka (T13)
• Bryson DeChambeau (T15)
• Marc Leishman (T18)
• Jon Rahm (T23)
• Ben An (T23)
• Justin Thomas (T32)

Rory missed the cut by two shots and a wily amateur named Scottie Scheffler shot an opening round 69 that left him tied for 7th before shooting a 78 in Round 2 to miss the cut by one. 

I think we can take Rory out of the equation until at least the playoffs. In one of the great all-time misreads, many (including me) thought that his Masters win would propel him to hit greater heights immediately. Instead it had the opposite effect as all of the emotion seems to have drained out of him along with his golf game. If we needed any more proof after his uninspired PGA Championship performance, his 78 on Friday at the Canadian Open took care of that.   

Scheffler comes in with the shortest major odds anyone has had since Tiger in his heyday and he's certainly going to win more than one of these but this has a 2024 PGA Championship vibe to me. He entered that tournament with ridiculous momentum to play a course that appeared perfectly suited for him only to finish a "disappointing" 8th. Yes he did get arrested by I'm conveniently choosing to ignore that minor detail.   

The cool and very plausible outcome would be Xander Schauffele or Collin Morikawa getting one step closer to the career Grand Slam. Schauffele's U.S. Open record is ridiculous. He's played it eight times and only finished outside of the top ten once . . . and that was a T14. If nothing else, you've got to factor him into your plans as a top five pick. Morikawa is always just waiting to strike. His "A" game is so high that he may not get the Grand Slam, but he's got at least two more majors in him and his style is quite well-suited to U.S. Open golf.    

The reality, howver, is that Bryson is the best bet to win. I've been late to accept it but now I have fully embraced his greatness as a golfer and the fact that he is (gulp) good for the game. He's a completely different player than he was when he finished T15 here in 2016 but the fact is he's better. His short game has improved and, more importantly, he's battle tested having finished T6 or better in five of the last six majors. He also dusted everyone at Winged Foot in 2020 and that's probably about as close a course comparison as you're going to find to Oakmont.    

Corey Conners and Russell Henley are too logical not to pick this week based on their styles of play and the seasons they're having. The DraftKings price on Harris English is absurdly low compared to his odds. (Hey look at me taking this shit seriously). And finally, Marc Leishman is a bit of a reach but (a) I needed another LIV player after not finding a spot for Jon Rahm and (b) his game, or at least the game he used to play, is ideally suited for Oakmont as evidenced by his T18 here in 2016. 

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Xander Schauffele	+2200
Top 5	Collin Morikawa	+360
Top 10	Corey Conners	+330
Top 10	Russell Henley	+360
Top 20	Marc Leishman	+400

One and Done Pick: Bryson DeChambeau

Did we just become friends?!?!

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele

Sleeper Pick: Harris English 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Bryson DeChambeau	$11,000
Xander Schauffele	$10,400
Collin Morikawa	$9,800
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,800
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,000
Shane Lowry	$7,800
Russell Henley	$7,400
Corey Conners	$7,300
Harrish English	$6,700
Marc Leishman	$6,000

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

I can assure you that no part of this content will ever be written by AI but I did try to lean on ChatGPT for some help with this week's chart and I think we may have actually gotten into a fight. All I did was ask for five years worth of U.S. Open results for all 156 players in the field and it got all pissy telling me what a big job that was. I kept pushing and it kept pushing back. Then I got a little passive aggressive by asking "how we doing buddy?" and it quit on me so I had to do it myself. Nobody wants to work anymore. 

THE PRIMANTI BROTHER THIS AIN'T

NO DAMN KALE SMOOTHIE U.S. OPEN

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART 

The first three out from the above picks were Brian Harman, Denny McCarthy and Max Greyserman. Harman has made the cut in his last seven U.S. Opens so he's a great value bet who I'm already regretting not including. McCarthy is cut from the same mold and Greyserman plays as gritty as his name. You probably want to avoid life situations where you come into 18 all square with a guy named Greyserman.  

	DK Price	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Scottie Scheffler	$14,400	T41	3rd	T2	T7	DNP
Rory McIlroy	$12,400	2nd	2nd	T5	T7	T8
Bryson DeChambeau	$11,000	1st	T20	T56	T26	1st
Xander Schauffele	$10,400	T7	T10	T14	T7	5th
Jon Rahm	$10,200	DNP	T10	T12	1st	T23
Collin Morikawa	$9,800	T14	T14	T5	T4	MC
Ludvig Aberg	$9,600	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,300	T3	T14	T14	T15	T43
Justin Thomas	$9,000	MC	MC	T37	T19	T8
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,800	T16	T5	MC	T50	MC
Joaquin Niemann	$8,600	DNP	T32	T47	T31	T23
Viktor Hovland	$8,500	MC	19th	MC	W/D	T13
Brooks Koepka	$8,200	T26	T17	55th	T4	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,000	6th	T32	4th	T26	T17
Shane Lowry	$7,800	T19	T20	MC	T65	T43
Tyrell Hatton	$7,600	T26	T27	T56	MC	MC
Jordan Spieth	$7,500	T41	MC	T37	T19	MC
Russell Henley	$7,400	T7	T14	MC	T13	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$7,400	T32	MC	T7	DNP	MC
Tony Finau	$7,300	T3	T32	MC	MC	T8
Corey Conners	$7,300	T9	MC	MC	MC	MC
Cameron Smith	$7,200	T32	4th	MC	MC	T38
Ben Griffin	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Fitzpatrick	$7,100	T64	T17	1st	T55	MC
Min Woo Lee	$7,100	T21	T5	T27	DNP	DNP
Sam Burns	$7,100	T9	T32	T27	MC	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$7,000	T56	1st	MC	MC	DNP
Sungjae Im	$7,000	MC	MC	MC	T35	22nd
Jason Day	$6,900	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	T38
Justin Rose	$6,900	MC	MC	T37	MC	MC
Si Woo Kim	$6,900	T32	T39	MC	T40	MC
Patrick Reed	$6,900	DNP	T56	T49	T19	T13
Tom Kim	$6,800	T26	T8	23rd	DNP	DNP
Daniel Berger	$6,800	T21	DNP	MC	T7	T34
Maverick McNealy	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Dustin Johnson	$6,700	MC	T10	T24	T19	T6
Harris English	$6,700	T41	T8	T61	3rd	4th
Akshay Bhatia	$6,700	T16	DNP	DNP	T57	DNP
J.J. Spaun	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Robert MacIntyre	$6,700	MC	DNP	DNP	T35	T56
Sahith Theegala (O)	$6,600	T32	T27	DNP	MC	DNP
Adam Scott	$6,600	T32	MC	T14	T35	T38
Denny McCarthy	$6,600	T32	T20	T7	DNP	DNP
J.T. Poston	$6,600	T32	MC	DNP	T40	MC
Cameron Young	$6,500	T67	T32	MC	MC	DNP
Byeong Hun An	$6,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Brian Harman	$6,500	T21	T43	T43	T19	T38
Davis Thompson	$6,500	T9	MC	DNP	DNP	MC
Taylor Pendrith	$6,500	T16	MC	DNP	MC	T23
Thomas Detry	$6,400	T14	DNP	DNP	MC	T49
Max Greyserman	$6,400	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Aaron Rai	$6,400	T19	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$6,300	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
C. Bezuidenhout	$6,300	T32	DNP	DNP	T31	55th
Matt Wallace	$6,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	T43
Andrew Novak	$6,300	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Lucas Glover	$6,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	T17
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,200	MC	T49	T24	T15	MC
Cam Davis	$6,200	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Riley	$6,200	DNP	DNP	T31	DNP	MC
Tom Hoge	$6,100	MC	MC	MC	T46	DNP
Erik van Rooyen	$6,100	MC	DNP	MC	MC	T23
Matthieu Pavon	$6,100	5th	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rasmus Hojgaard	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Bud Cauley	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$6,000	MC	T49	T10	T50	MC
Stephan Jaeger	$6,000	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP	T34
Marc Leishman	$6,000	DNP	DNP	T14	64th	MC
Thor Olesen	$6,000	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$5,900	T26	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Victor Perez	$5,900	DNP	MC	MC	MC	MC
Sam Stevens	$5,900	DNP	T43	T49	DNP	DNP
Phil Mickelson	$5,800	MC	MC	MC	T62	MC
Emiliano Grillo	$5,700	T41	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mark Hubbard	$5,600	T50	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Nick Dunlap	$5,500	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP