Wednesday, August 26, 2020

BMW Championship Preview Mea Culpa

So some may have noticed a minor flaw in this week’s preview (if you can really even call basing all of the research and recommendations on the fact that I thought they were playing a different course a “flaw”). Suffice it to say that I’m not going to take it down or change a single word because the Fantasy Golf Report is at its core a monument to fucking-up and moving-on while never forgetting the fucking-up part. When you’ve been falling up as long as I have, it kind of becomes a way of life. And hey, maybe it’s a good thing. Last week’s picks were based on accurate data and look at what a Mongolian clusterfuck they turned out to be. 

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Fantasy Golf: The BMW Championship Preview

My life as a college parent continues to simulate riding a horse that just partied with Donald Trump, Jr. as the focus has now shifted from the pandemic to the two tropical storms/hurricanes bearing down on the campus. I've tried to offer encouraging words ranging from "at least masks aren't required when sheltering in place" to "be thankful your room is on the second floor" to "I hear the new turf in the Superdome is much more comfortable and less carcinogenic." This is what happens when your dad role models are Paul Dooley characters.

I could go on but it's late so let's get to some golf. But first, this . . .

TWEET OF THE WEEK


There were so many strong candidates this week but, when Bryson DeChambeau poses with the dog he claims inspired him to win the 2015 U.S. Amateur and it turns-out that the dog wasn't born until 2017, we are obliged to recognize that.


OW! MY GOLF ANALYSIS. IT'S BROKEN.

Last week's picks were not just the worst on campus. They were the worst in Faber history. Five of my ten recommendations missed the cut and Pat Perez withdrew which I actually fucking predicted! Who picks a horse that can't even run far enough to finish the damn race? Apparently this guy. 

I don't quite know how to describe this week's bounce back strategy but it does not include the six favorites so maybe "impending disaster" would be fitting. My rationale is that Xander Schauffele is due for a win and Daniel Berger is playing great golf and Jason Day has never had a bad showing on this course and this feels like the right spot for a Patrick Cantlay showing (breath) . . . 

Conway Farms gets torched every time they play it so you want guys named Matthew who can go low like Matthew Wolff and Matthew Fitzpatrick plus we'll add Matt Kuchar who no one calls Matthew and isn't really a guy who goes low but he finished T5 here in 2017 and he'll only run you $7,400 so let's do this thing. Bubba intrigues me. On many levels. But this week it's because last week he had that glint in his eye that said, "hey, I kinda like playing golf right now." 

As for sleepers, I'm going with Talor Gooch and Joel Dahmen because (a) they both seem like fun guys, (b) Gooch has been playing well lately and (c) Dahmen actually went on Twitter last week and picked-up a money game with some random dudes. If that kind of move doesn't earn you some bonus points on your cosmic player's card, then I don't know my business. Am I right? (Don't answer that). 

2019: Kuuuuuch
2020: Goooooch
One and Done Pick: Daniel Berger

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele


Sleeper Pick: Talor Gooch


DraftKings Top Ten Values


Xander Schauffele
$9,900
Daniel Berger
$9,700
Jason Day
$9,200
Patrick Cantlay
$8,900
Matthew Wolff
$8,200
Matthew Fitzpatrick
$7,900
Bubba Watson
$7,600
Matt Kuchar
$7,400
Talor Gooch
$6,600
Joel Dahmen
$6,500

We've got three years worth of data on this course going back to 2013 so do with it what you will. The only really notable information in there as far as I can see is Jason Day's dominance but maybe I'm missing it. Whatever it is. 

                                 THE KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE
       HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART!!!

DK Price
2017
2015
2013
Dustin Johnson
$11,500
T33
T7
T62
Jon Rahm
$11,000
T5
DNP
DNP
Justin Thomas
$10,800
T47
T13
DNP
Bryson DeChambeau
$10,600
T33
DNP
DNP
Rory McIlroy
$10,300
T58
T4
T59
Webb Simpson
$10,100
T9
T64
T24
Xander Schauffele
$9,900
T20
DNP
DNP
Daniel Berger
$9,700
T33
2nd
DNP
Collin Morikawa
$9,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jason Day
$9,200
4th
1st
T4
Scottie Scheffler
$9,000
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patrick Cantlay
$8,900
T9
DNP
DNP
Patrick Reed
$8,800
65th
T28
T59
Tony Finau
$8,700
T7
T47
DNP
Tiger Woods
$8,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
$8,500
T47
T7
DNP
Kevin Kisner
$8,400
T67
T41
DNP
Harris English
$8,300
DNP
T19
50th
Tyrrell Hatton
$8,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
Adam Scott
$8,200
DNP
DNP
T28
Matthew Wolff
$8,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
Paul Casey
$8,100
T33
T23
DNP
Viktor Hovland
$8,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
Billy Horschel
$8,000
62nd
T32
T18
Louis Oosthuizen
$8,000
T63
T19
DNP
Alex Noren
$7,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matthew Fitzpatrick
$7,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
Gary Woodland
$7,800
T27
T60
T18
Russell Henley
$7,800
T47
T49
DNP
Abraham Ancer
$7,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
Sungjae Im
$7,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
Bubba Watson
$7,600
DNP
T10
T24
Cameron Champ
$7,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jason Kokrak
$7,500
DNP
DNP
T44
Brendon Todd
$7,400
DNP
T23
DNP
Matt Kuchar
$7,400
T5
T41
T24
Cameron Smith
$7,300
T12
DNP
DNP
Kevin Na
$7,300
T53
T10
DNP
Corey Connors
$7,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
Marc Leishman
$7,200
1st
DNP
T39
Adam Hadwin
$7,100
T40
DNP
DNP
Byeong Hun An
$6,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
Max Homa
$6,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
Charles Howell, III
$6,700
T67
DNP
T39
Brendan Steele
$6,600
T44
T13
61st
Talor Gooch
$6,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
Joel Dahmen
$6,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Streelman
$6,400
DNP
DNP
T33

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