Back in the FGR glory days, I used to write somewhat extensively about the NFL as a way to stay in shape during golf's offseason. This year, however, I am writing in an effort to forget what was an eight month long multi car pile-up of bad golf picks. Theoretically, these NFL over/under picks will have to be an improvement because the alternative is almost impossible. (Interesting time to tempt fate).
32. Cleveland Browns
Every time I fall into this power rankings trap it's because I forget that you have to come-up with thirty-two ideas which is a lot for me as evidenced by the fact that I casually started this tome about two weeks ago. It seemed like a good idea (at the time) to run through each team and at least identify their best fantasy player before walking into a draft barely knowing the starting quarterbacks for half the league. (Just thought I should explain why that useless information has been incorporated).
I've let Vegas do most of the heavy-lifting here by ranking teams based on over/under win totals. One thing this effort did reveal is that the NFL's reputation for parity has become something of a myth. Teams in the top 8 have accounted for eleven of the last twelve Super Bowl participants while teams ranked 24-32 have been blowing through coaches and quarterbacks like I've been blowing through episodes of The Gilded Age. Seriously, it's the American Downton Abbey on steroids. Get involved.
Here we go.
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| "Hmmm 4th and 7 in the third quarter . . . feels like another flea flicker." |
Win Total: 4.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Jerry Jeudy
The QB depth chart got a bit clearer with the trading of Kenny Pickett and it now looks like Joe Flacco will begin his 18th season as the starter with Dillon Gabriel and Shadeur Sanders battling for the inevitable call by week five. If I'm Kevin Stefanski, I'm going full Peter from Office Space at this point.
31. New Orleans Saints
Win Total: 5.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Alvin Kamara
With Spencer Rattler, the Saints enter 2025 with not only the worst starting quarterback in the league but maybe the worst opening day starting quarterback in the history of the NFL. I saw one draft board that had all four Cleveland quarterbacks ranked ahead of him. At least that's now down to three after the Pickett trade which apparently sent shockwaves through the bottom of these rankings considering that's the second time we've mentioned it. Rattler's backup is some guy named Tyler Shough who has the curse of a name that will look far more at home above a Mazda dealership than it will on an NFL jersey.
30. New York Giants
Win Total: 5.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Malik Nabors
Russell Wilson's 2024 numbers look pretty respectable with 16 TD's and only 5 INT's but he was sacked three times per game while playing for a run-first team with a dink and dunk passing game. Now he's with his third team in three years playing under Brian Daboll who gained a reputation for being a quarterback guru after "developing" Josh Allen. Under his more recent guidance, Giants quarterbacks have thrown for 30 TD's and 25 INT's the last two seasons. That's not very good guruing.
29. Tennessee Titans
Win Total: 5.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Calvin Ridley
Cam Ward will be the starter by default as Will Levis is out for the year and frankly Ward can't be any worse than the dreck the Titans have been trotting out there the last three years during which they've gone 16-35 while playing in the NFL's version of the Tri-County Soccer League's U8 Bronze Division. Assuming Ward can play at all, the weak competition should yield at least six wins.
28. New York Jets
Win Total: 5.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Garrett Wilson
I've relished taking shots at the Jets during this recent marathon run of futility because their fans are frankly insufferable but I don't think they belong in this 5.5 win crew. They're playing in the AFC's second weakest division and Justin Fields has the legitimate potential to be a poor man's Lamar Jackson. If he can find some chemistry with Garrett Wilson (which even Aaron Rodgers found), they could be a top half of the league offense.
27. Carolina Panthers
Win Total: 6.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Chuba Hubbard
We're entering year three of the Bryce Young era and, more importantly, year seven of the David Tepper ownership era which has produced seven consecutive losing seasons (seems not coincidental). The Panthers have gone 36-80 since the hands-on Tepper began trying to wrestle the worst owner title away from Jimmy Haslam. The DeSean Watson contract makes that all but impossible, however, Tepper has bolstered his case by being a complete ass hat and remains a worthy contender.
26. Las Vegas Raiders
Win Total: 6.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Brock Bowers
No we didn't forget about you Mark Davis and your nine different coaches since 2011 with a combined record of 91-137. There are signs of promise this year, however, with the competent duo of Pete Carroll and Geno Smith taking over and Brock Bowers appearing ready to take the uncoverable tight end mantle from Travis Kelce. The problem is that there are three double digit win teams in the AFC West . . . and they ain't one of them.
25. Indianapolis Colts
Win Total: 7.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Jonathan Taylor
After two years of head-scratching over why the quarterback who only completed 54.7% of his passes against college defenses could only complete 50.6% of his passes against professional defenses, the Colts have apparently given-up on Anthony Richardson. Since Andrew Luck's retirement in 2018, the Colts have started games with the following under center:
- The carcasses of Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Nick Foles (30 games);
- The lost soul of Carson Wentz (17 games);
- The backup band of Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew and Brian Hoyer (29 games);
- The ageless wonder Joe Flacco (6 games); and
- Some guy named Sam Ehilnger who I'm not sure is real (3 games).
24. Atlanta Falcons
Win Total: 7.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Bijan Robinson
Hey look it's another NFC South team with clownish ownership coming-off seven consecutive losing seasons and they've got a backup quarterback who's going to count $40M against their cap this season. With all that being said, someone in this division besides the Bucs will have to sniff .500 and, even with all of their buffoonery, the Falcons appear to be the logical choice.
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| "We will dig and set with a sense of purpose this year. That I can damn well promise you." |
Win Total: 7.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Brian Thomas, Jr.
The Trevor Lawrence era was supposed to start better than 25-43 and, in an effort to right the ship, the Jags have brought in first time head coach Liam Coen who at least has the look of a coach. It’s a middle school volleyball coach but at least he has the look.
22. Miami Dolphins
Win Total: 7.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: De'von Achane
The eccentric Mike McDaniel enters his fourth season squarely on the "hot seat" despite a 28-23 record and two trips to the playoffs. Those kind of results would get you a parade in Cleveland and maybe even a key to the city. Then again, Cleveland hands-out a lot of keys to the city. It's like they've got hundreds of them on a janitor ring. I'll just leave that there.
21. New England Patriots
Win Total: 8.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: TreyVeyon Henderson
I always thought the inevitable downfall of the Patriots would be more satisfying. I guess we'll just have to settle for enjoying it vicariously through the Tar Heels. The fact that UNC may not be favored in a game after they play Richmond on September 13th has to be one of college football's most satisfying subplots.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Win Total: 8.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: DK Metcalf
As a Ravens fan and a well-documented Aaron Rodgers hater, I'm looking forward to this potential debacle in Pittsburgh with great anticipation. It's already produced one of the year's more epic quotes when Terry Bradshaw was asked what he thought of Rodgers being a Steeler and he responded, "no, man, that guy needs to stay in California, go somewhere
and chew on bark and whisper to the gods out there." Now it looks like he'll be whispering to the turf at Heinz Field.
19. Arizona Cardinals
Win Total: 8.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Trey McBride
The jury remains out on Kyler Murray who has posted solid stats since 2019 but enters 2025 with a record of 36-45-1. Head coach Jonathan Gannon improved from 4-13 to 8-9 last year which was his first with a healthy Murray for seventeen games. They should theoretically improve again but (a) they're in a pretty tough division, and (b) they're still the Cardinals.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Win Total: 8.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Justin Jefferson
Nothing screams 2025 NFL quite like a team going 14-3 with a generational talent at wide receiver and then intentionally deciding to start the following season with a rookie quarterback. And speaking of screaming . . . and Vikings . . . "want your cucumber bruised?"
17. Seattle Seahawks
Win Total: 8.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Jaxon Smith-NjiGba
The Seahawks are flying way under the radar (see what I did there?) with no one you've ever heard of at running back or wide receiver. They signed Sam Darnold to a very conservative contract by today's standards because most expect him to be the turd in the punchbowl who led the Vikings to a total of 18 points in the two games that mattered most last year. With that being said, they'll probably be the team that goes +23 on turnovers and wins 11 games.
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| "I'm telling you Monty, this Schottenheimer guy had the Browns one step away from the Super Bowl and I think he's going to get us there." |
Win Total: 8.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: CeeDee Lamb
It's crazy to think that a team as high profile and with such a pedigree as the Dallas Cowboys would hire a guy with no previous head coaching experience at any level. Especially one who has previously been turned down by at least three other teams. Wait until Jerry realizes it's not that "Schottenheimer."
15. Chicago Bears
Win Total: 8.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: D.J. Moore
The Bears are a trendy playoff pick and I'll bite on them getting to at least nine wins. I think there's a "barely/bearly" joke in there somewhere but I've already made myself wince enough this week.
14. Houston Texans
Win Total: 9.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Nico Collins
I've gone back and forth on the Texans because they feel like 9-8 but good god that division is so bad so there's no reason they shouldn't get to double digits. On the other hand, they've got eight games against the NFC and AFC West along with probable losses to the Ravens and Bills so that right there is potentially 3-7. Throw-in a split against one of the division teams and you get 9-8. Please remind me how much sense this made when they're 12-4 and getting ready to blowout the Colts in Week 17.
13. Washington Commanders
Win Total: 9.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Jayden Daniels
This feels like a minor correction getting ready to happen. The league has a way of figuring-out even the best second year quarterbacks and the NFC East is really up against it with out of division matchups against the NFC North and AFC West. Also, I've hated the Washington [insert latest stupid name] for longer than I've hated the Steelers so please factor that into your analysis of my analysis.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Total: 9.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Bucky Irving
As the saying goes, in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man can still find at least ten wins. In this metaphor, the NFC South is the land of the blind, the Bucs are . . . oh you get the point.
11. Green Bay Packers
Win Total: 9.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Josh Jacobs
The Packers seemed to take a step forward with Jordan Love last year but a closer look reveals that they really didn't beat anybody and they went 0-6 against the Eagles, Lions and Vikings. However, they still went 11-1 against everyone else and now they have Micah Parsons. That should be enough to win at least 10.
10: Los Angeles Chargers
Win Total: 9.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Ladd McConkey
There is some concern that their most feared offensive threat is a crafty possession receiver but this prediction is based more on the anticipated year two of the Harbaugh effect which turned a 5-12 team into and 11-6 team in year one. It will all meltdown by year five if he's even still there but right now we're in the sweet spot.
9. Denver Broncos
Win Total: 9.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Courtland Sutton
Much the same could be said about the Broncos. Bo Nix exceeded expectations last season completing 66% of his passes with 29 TD's against only 12 INT's. No reason to think that won't improve under the guidance of Sean Payton who mysteriously doesn't get questioned anymore about running Russell Wilson out of town. Huh.
8. Los Angeles Rams
Win Total: 9.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Puka Nacua
The Rams started 1-4 last year before closing 9-3 and then adding a playoff win. It was the first strong sign that they were emerging from their post Super Bowl/Aaron Donald fog. Kind of a testament to the greatness of Donald that the retirement of one player could cause such a dramatic hangover. So he has that in common with two and half bottles of Sauvignon Blanc.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
Win Total: 9.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Ja'Marr Chase
The Bengals started last season 4-8 and still managed to win nine games thanks to a five game winning streak to close the season. We expect to see more of that late season team in 2025 than the one that gave-up about a thousand points through the first twelve. In the old days when things were fun and clever, some PR person would've had the idea of putting their offensive stars on a billboard wearing three-piece suits with the line, "The Law Firm of Burrow, Higgins and Chase . . . The Best Defense is a Good Offense." Hello? Is this thing on?
6. San Francisco 49ers
Win Total: 10.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Christian McCaffrey
Brock Purdy just signed a $265,000,000 contract with $182,550,000 guaranteed over the next five years. Seems excessive in general but especially for a non-imposing quarterback who is pretty good at everything but not particularly great at anything. Steady is nice but you don't pay Mercedes money for a Honda just because your last one made it over 200,000 miles on twenty-five Jiffy Lube oil changes. JFC man it's still just a damn Honda.
5. Detroit Lions
Best Fantasy Player: Jahmyr Gibbs
We've certainly come a long way from this iconic tweet as Dan Campbell has emerged as one of the best coaches in the league. Despite the flop against the Commanders in the playoffs, this is still the clear-cut second best team in the NFC and, with the Vikings taking a step back, they should at least be good for twelve wins.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
Win Total: 11.5 (Under)
Best Fantasy Player: Xavier Worthy
After being completely pantsed by the Eagles in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs now have to face ten 2024 playoff teams including non-division games against the Bills, Ravens, Lions, Eagles and Commanders. Of course they're still the NFL's version of a little league team who's coach is also the commissioner so four of those five games are at home but still.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Win Total: 11.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Derrick Henry
The Ravens would appear to be good at everything this year with a dynamic offense, a solid defense and a kicker more into kicking than getting handsy. However, that's really been the case for the better part of the last six seasons during which they've gone 68-32 (including an 8-9 record in 2021 when Lamar Jackson missed five games). Look for them to go 12-5 with a home loss to either the Browns or Jets which costs them home field in the AFC Championship game.
2. Buffalo Bills
Win Total: 11.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Josh Allen
The burning question this year is whether the Bills or Ravens will be good enough to overcome the Chiefs' "institutional advantage" and we're thinking they will and it will start with them earning the playoff homefield edge. Maybe the officials will be a bit more inclined to call it down the middle if they're doing it in front of the Buffalo mafia or whatever far more terrifying thing you want to call the Baltimore crowd. (Seriously, our fans are terrifying).
1. Philadelphia Eagles
Win Total: 11.5 (Over)
Best Fantasy Player: Saquon Barkley
It's easy to forget that the Eagles were 2-2 going into their bye last year before winning sixteen of their next seventeen games. We're still about a year away from their players dating pop stars so let's just enjoy it while we can.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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