Fantasy Golf: The British Open Preview

I had another self-aggrandizing golf story queued up for this week's preamble but then fate intervened last Friday and decided suddenly and unexpectedly that my dog's run was over. So if you will indulge me, I'm going to write about him instead because he was pretty great.

Roughly eight years ago we drove to a vet's office in Virginia to pick-up a two year old dog named "Majestic" that we had found through a rescue placement service. We were a little trepidatious because you never know what you're getting into with these situations and our fears weren't exactly allayed when this complete spaz emerged from the back, got tangled in his leash and pissed all over the floor of the lobby. Majestic indeed.

Clearly a name change was in order and, after much deliberation, we settled on Charlie. If you ask me "why Charlie?", the best I can offer is the Blutarski response of "[belch] why not?" To be honest, it was likely a product of trying to name a dog with the help of young kids who are suggesting names like "Aquaman" and "Donut." As it turned-out, "Charlie" suited him and was a fortuitous choice for reasons I will get into now. 

Charlie was about the friendliest dog you'd ever meet but this trait also made him incorrigible because he possessed an insatiable desire to be around other dogs which he combined with a Houdini like ability to escape any and all efforts to contain him. Having had another dog that was hit by a car ("Potts" . . . don't ask), this led to hours of stressful street roaming while yelling "CHAAARRRLIE" which created enough attention but then imagine a guy walking down your street at 11:00 p.m. carrying a leash and yelling "MAAAAJESSSSTIC!" We probably would've met some new and interesting people that way. And maybe the cops. 

He actually became infamous on NextDoor as "that black dog on the loose again." One Karen took to the comments and questioned our commitment to keeping him safe to which I almost responded with an invitation to come look at the elaborate fortifications we had installed. I swear he would just casually lay in the yard watching us add additional fencing and blocking holes with boulders and think "aren't they adorable." 

This look.

More often than not, his excursions would result in a neighbor calling to tell us that he was playing with their dog. We'd pick him up and give him a stern talking to but he would hit you with this look of innocence that made it impossible to stay mad at him.  

Ironically, this thing that so often drove us to the brink of insanity brought one of the lighter moments for me after I said goodbye to him for the last time on Sunday when I imagined a fenced dog heaven and a highly agitated angel grabbing a leash on his way through the gates yelling, "I'M GOING OUT TO LOOK FOR CHARLIE AGAIN!" 

One of the great things about dogs is how so many people truly believe they have the best one and how most of them are right. Your relationship with your dog is arguably the most unique one you will ever experience because it is pretty much unconditional. Sure, you'll occasionally let each other down like when he tracks mud on the carpet and when you have the audacity not to give him the last bite of your sandwich but these moments pass quickly before you're back to being best friends. 

Charlie kept dodging cars and visiting his friends right up to the end. After a full day of begging for food, playing in the yard and about nine naps in nine different parts of the house, he moved on peacefully. We all agree that he was the best dog we ever had and he will always hold a piece of that title along with Potts and all of the amazing dogs we haven't been lucky enough to love yet.   

GOLF ANALYSIS

No easy way to segue into bad golf forecasting but here we go. According to some people on Twitter (so it must be true), the last fifteen British Open winners have all had the following in common:

• Previous top 2 finish in a major.
• At least three top 15 finishes in their last five starts.
• Top 3 finish on the PGA Tour that year.
• Previous top 20 finish at the British Open.*

(*Except for Collin Morikawa who won the British Open on his first try in 2021).

To further narrow it down, the last four winners finished T15 or better at the Scottish Open the week before. Using those trends, here is the list of potential winners this year:

• Rory McIlroy
• Matt Fitzpatrick
• Wyndham Clark
• Viktor Hovland
• Robert MacIntyre
• Tom Kim 

That's it. That's the list. 

We're ruling-out Rory because Royal Birkdale negates some of his length advantage and Wyndham Clark is out because he makes us nauseous. As cool as a Hovland win would be, the other remaining three are better options. 

It sure feels like Matt Fitzpatrick's time doesn't it? If not for Cameron Young, Fitz would've won The Players and he'd be the clear frontrunner for 2026 player of the year. And this course appears to be an ideal track for his game which happens to be peaking at the moment. If I hadn't already picked him to win the PGA Championship, he'd be the obvious choice.

So that leaves MacIntyre and Kim and it's a bit of a toss-up. Both of them are probably going to win a major at some point especially now that Kim seems to have rediscovered the form that had us thinking he was a top ten in the world caliber player. His 3rd place finish at the U.S. Open and win last week propelled him from 152nd in the world about six weeks ago to 33rd today. It's just karmically tough to win two weeks in a row because the golf gods are stingy so Robbie Mac is the pick.

If we wanted to deviate from the above trends, we'd be taking a very hard look at Collin Morikawa. Consider that Matt Kuchar's best finish in a major was runner-up here in 2017 and Morikawa combines the best of his game with the proven ability to close the deal. And yes that was a shot at Kuch. #NeverForget

The most obvious value play in the world is Brian Harman who is built for these conditions as he has proven time and again including a freakin' win in 2023, a T6 in 2022 and a T10 last year. It's mind boggling how he is still considered a longer shot than guys like Min Woo Lee and Joaquin Niemann who have almost nothing to show on their major resumes. Just another case of misguided evaluation based on appearance instead of results a/k/a the "Pretty Boy Effect."  

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Matt Fitzpatrick	+1800
Top 5	Collin Morikawa	+550
Top 10	Robert MacIntyre	+290
Top 10	Tom Kim	+385
Top 20	Brian Harman	+295

One and Done Pick: Robert MacIntyre

Not the sexiest pick in any sense
of the word but solid nonetheless.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick 

Sleeper Pick: Alex Noren

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Tommy Fleetwood	$10,500
Matt Fitzpatrick	$10,000
Tyrrell Hatton	$8,900
Collin Morikawa	$8,700
Robert MacIntyre	$8,000
Russell Henley	$7,700
Hideki Matsuyama	$6,900
Tom Kim	$6,800
Brian Harman	$6,600
Alex Noren	$6,400

This week's chart honors the two guys we played in an interclub match last week who thought it wise not to give my partner an 18 inch putt for par on the 10th hole (he made it anyway). The match unfolded such that we were one up playing the par three 17th. They had the honor and both hit the green. My partner hit it into East Dumpsville leaving me solo and I put mine in the right trap. 

Frankly I was completely gassed from the Charlie situation which may have smoothed out the action on my swing as I splashed it to the top of the downslope where it checked before rolling to a foot. They "generously" conceded my par and both hit their putts to just under three feet. You could almost hear the crickets. Especially after they both missed to lose the match. We played the 18th in silence. Not sure what theirs felt like but ours was satisfyingly smug.    

THEY SHOULDN'T HAVE MADE IT PERSONAL

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

We didn't mention Tommy Fleetwood earlier but we would expect him to be a factor. Just not a winning factor (please for the love of god note the ensuing success of players I've said that about this year). It pained us not to include Jordan Spieth who used to be a lock and also happens to be the last guy to win on this course. He's just been a little too Spiethy of late.  

	DK Price	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Scottie Scheffler	$13,300	1st	T7	T23	T28	T8
Rory McIlroy	$11,900	T7	MC	T6	3rd	T46
Tommy Fleetwood	$10,500	T16	MC	T10	T4	T33
Matt Fitzpatrick	$10,000	T4	T50	T41	T21	T26
Xander Schauffele	$9,800	T7	1st	T17	T15	T26
Jon Rahm	$9,700	T34	T7	T2	T34	T3
Ludvig Aberg	$9,300	T23	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$9,100	T16	T2	MC	DNP	T46
Cameron Young	$9,000	MC	T31	T8	2nd	DNP
Tyrrell Hatton	$8,900	T16	MC	T20	T11	MC
Collin Morikawa	$8,700	MC	T16	MC	MC	1st
Chris Gotterup	$8,500	3rd	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bryson DeChambeau	$8,400	T10	MC	T60	T8	T33
Viktor Hovland	$8,300	T63	MC	T13	T4	T12
Wyndham Clark	$8,200	T4	MC	T33	T76	DNP
Robert MacIntyre	$8,000	T7	T50	T71	T34	T8
Shane Lowry	$7,900	T40	6th	MC	T21	T12
Sam Burns	$7,800	T45	T31	MC	T42	T76
Russell Henley	$7,700	T10	5th	MC	T62	MC
Brooks Koepka	$7,600	MC	T43	T64	MC	T6
Justin Thomas	$7,500	T34	T31	MC	T53	T40
Alex Fitzpatrick	$7,400	DNP	DNP	T17	DNP	DNP
Joaquin Niemann	$7,300	MC	T58	MC	T53	T59
Jordan Spieth	$7,200	T40	T25	T23	T8	2nd
Aaron Rai	$7,100	T34	T75	DNP	MC	T19
Patrick Cantlay	$7,000	MC	T25	T33	T8	MC
Patrick Reed	$7,000	MC	DNP	T33	T47	MC
Hideki Matsuyama	$6,900	T16	T66	T13	T68	DNP
Min Woo Lee	$6,900	MC	MC	T41	T21	MC
Si Woo Kim	$6,900	MC	T43	MC	T15	DNP
Ben Griffin	$6,800	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Corey Conners	$6,800	T10	T25	T52	T28	T15
Cameron Smith	$6,800	MC	MC	T33	1st	T33
Tom Kim	$6,800	MC	MC	T2	T47	DNP
Harris English	$6,700	2nd	T50	MC	MC	T46
Maverick McNealy	$6,700	T23	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
J.J. Spaun	$6,700	T23	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Marco Penge	$6,700	MC	DNP	MC	MC	DNP
Jake Knapp	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
E. Lopez-Chacarra	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sepp Straka	$6,600	T52	T22	T2	MC	DNP
Brian Harman	$6,600	T10	T60	1st	T6	T19
Akshay Bhatia	$6,600	T30	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nicolai Hojgaard	$6,600	T14	T66	T23	T53	DNP
Adam Scott	$6,500	MC	T10	T33	T15	T46
Keegan Bradley	$6,500	T30	MC	MC	MC	MC
Rickie Fowler	$6,500	T14	71st	T23	DNP	T53
Kurt Kitayama	$6,500	DNP	T41	T60	T72	MC
Kristoffer Reitan	$6,500	T30	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
David Puig	$6,500	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$6,400	MC	T13	T2	DNP	MC
Max Homa	$6,400	DNP	T43	T10	MC	T40
Alex Noren	$6,400	DNP	T13	T23	DNP	MC
Jacob Bridgeman	$6,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ryan Gerard	$6,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ryan Fox	$6,300	MC	T25	T52	MC	T67
Rasmus Hojgaard	$6,300	T16	T60	MC	DNP	DNP
Harry Hall	$6,300	T28	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Wallace	$6,300	T45	T41	MC	DNP	T40
Gary Woodland	$6,300	DNP	T50	T55	MC	MC
Sungjae Im	$6,200	T52	T7	T20	T81	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$6,200	MC	MC	MC	T34	DNP
Daniel Berger	$6,200	T30	DNP	DNP	DNP	T8
Hao-Tong Li	$6,200	T4	DNP	DNP	MC	MC
R. Neergaard-Petersen	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Thomas Detry	$6,100	T45	DNP	T13	T34	MC
Lucas Herbert	$6,100	MC	DNP	MC	T15	MC
Jordan Smith	$6,100	T45	MC	T41	T47	DNP
J.T. Poston	$6,100	MC	MC	T41	MC	DNP
Keith Mitchell	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	MC
Ryo Hisatsune	$6,100	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Greyserman	$6,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Eric Cole	$6,000	DNP	T31	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bud Cauley	$6,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom McKibbin	$6,000	MC	T66	DNP	DNP	DNP
Louis Oosthuizen (O)	$5,900	MC	MC	T23	MC	T3
Andrew Novak	$5,900	T63	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$5,900	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Jesper Svensson	$5,900	T16	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$5,800	DNP	T2	MC	T21	T53
John Parry	$5,800	T16	DNP	DNP	T62	DNP
Matthew Jordan	$5,700	T45	T10	T10	MC	DNP
Laurie Canter	$5,600	MC	T25	T17	79th	DNP
Francesco Molinari	$5,600	T63	MC	MC	T15	MC
Padraig Harrington	$5,500	MC	T22	T64	MC	72nd
Stewart Cink	$5,500	MC	MC	T23	MC	MC
Henrik Stenson	$5,200	T45	MC	T13	MC	MC

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