For the sake of transparency I should start by saying that I've had Dustin Johnson locked into this spot from day one this year and I don't see any reason to change that. The only time I wavered on was Tuesday morning when I woke-up from a vivid dream that Jon Rahm beat Phil Mickelson and some random guy like Joel Dahmen or Chez Reavie in a playoff. At one point, the random guy missed a putt to keep going but left his ball mark on the green and Mickelson called him a jerk. I remember thinking that was funny. The fact that I'm dreaming about golf should be viewed favorably as supreme dedication to my craft and not the sad night conjurings of a man who really needs to find better things to occupy his mind.
Why am I picking D.J. over some of the trendier options like Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day not to mention the sentimental favorite Tiger and the super sentimental favorite Phil? Well let's see. He's finished 2nd in the last two majors and he was 3rd at the last U.S. Open. He won the WGC-Mexico Championship, finished T5th at The Players and 3rd at the Tour Championship. His game is peaking in big games. Oh yeah. He loves Pebble Beach as evidenced by his two wins and two runner-up at the AT&T Pro-Am. Sure he blew-up in the final round here at the U.S. Open but that was freakin' 2010 and he still finished tied for 8th despite a final round 82. That was nine years ago and he was just starting to screw-up majors at that point. Now he's won a U.S. Open and finished T4th or better at four of the last five.
And I'll tell you another thing. Jordan Spieth is back and he digs Pebble too with a win there in 2017. After a rocky stretch, he's strung together three top tens including a T3rd at Bethpage. His drop all the way down to 28th in the world should be a strong motivator to shut-up the haters of which there appear to be more than a few. I originally had Jason Day rounding-out my three man top tier but I'm just not feeling him this week despite his ridiculous track record at the AT&T. Instead I'm going with Francesco Molinari who's coming-in with a chip on his shoulder after his Masters meltdown.
I could offer a host of reasons for not picking Koepka or Tiger but I don't really have any. I just don't see a repeat major winner this year. I do, however, have valid reasons for not picking Rory. Pebble Beach does not seem to be his happy place (considering he never plays there) and, for that matter, neither does the U.S. Open. Since 2012, he only has one top ten to go with four missed cuts including a current streak of three in a row. As brilliant as he can be, he isn't a grinder. That doesn't make him a bad person . . . just a typical millennial. GET. OFF. OF. MY. LAWN!!!
At the next level you could make a good case for about eight players. I'm eliminating Phil right-off the bat because the hype is too much and we're not topping Tiger at Augusta. Instead let's go with a guy who is trending-up like say Xander Schauffele who finished T5th and T6th at the last two U.S. Opens. It's not a matter of if anymore but when. For Paul Casey, it's not a matter of if he'll win but where else he'll finish in the top ten. That's good enough for me. If you want to put Adam Scott and Matt Kuchar in these spots, I will not stand in your way.
Webb Simpson is getting much love this week and I'm on board. He has a sneaky top twenty world ranking and just finished T5th at the Masters where he had never fared better than a T20th. I'm also buying-in on Shane Lowry as everyone who cares about me just shakes their heads in disbelief as they've seen me go down this road time and time and time again with the same dismal results. "When will he learn?" they ask. "Maybe next week" I answer. (Then again, maybe not).
Hey how about some sleepers. Very begrudgingly I will offer-up Graeme McDowell who I do not like and yes it's because I still haven't forgotten the cardigan sweaters. However, he has been playing well lately and he did win the last U.S. Open played here. Those facts are inescapable. Don't even try. They're way too fast. I'm also going with last week's FGR pick Scott Piercy who missed the cut in Canada so you fucking owe me Piercy!!!
And finally we have Nick Taylor who was on his way to be the first Canadian to win his country's national championship since 1954 until he ran into a couple of obstacles we like to call round three and round four. He tumbled to a tie for 27th but he did play two great rounds which, in Canada, is cause for a parade. He also happens to play pretty well at Pebble Beach so maybe he'll play two good rounds in a real major and they'll name a bridge after him. The Ponce de Nick or some shit like that.
One and Done Pick: Dustin Johnson
Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth
Sleeper Pick: Scott Piercy
DraftKings Top Ten Values
You have to be very careful about using past performances at regular tour events when doing pre-majors analysis. It's kind of like trying to eat spaghetti in a white shirt. You wouldn't draw it up that way but you're wearing a white shirt and they're serving spaghetti so what are you supposed to do. That stupid analogy aside, I think there is some value in looking at recent AT&T Pro-Am results because guys like Tiger, Phil and Brandt Snedeker always play it well and all three of them finished top ten the last time the U.S. Open was at Pebble Beach. Speaking of which, I'm probably making a mistake by blowing-off Snedeker this week considering his solid overall U.S. Open record and improved play of late but it really wouldn't be the Fantasy Golf Report without the right answer staring me in the face and me inventing reasons to go the other way.
THE CLINT EASTWOOD TALKING CHAIR
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
And I'll tell you another thing. Jordan Spieth is back and he digs Pebble too with a win there in 2017. After a rocky stretch, he's strung together three top tens including a T3rd at Bethpage. His drop all the way down to 28th in the world should be a strong motivator to shut-up the haters of which there appear to be more than a few. I originally had Jason Day rounding-out my three man top tier but I'm just not feeling him this week despite his ridiculous track record at the AT&T. Instead I'm going with Francesco Molinari who's coming-in with a chip on his shoulder after his Masters meltdown.
I could offer a host of reasons for not picking Koepka or Tiger but I don't really have any. I just don't see a repeat major winner this year. I do, however, have valid reasons for not picking Rory. Pebble Beach does not seem to be his happy place (considering he never plays there) and, for that matter, neither does the U.S. Open. Since 2012, he only has one top ten to go with four missed cuts including a current streak of three in a row. As brilliant as he can be, he isn't a grinder. That doesn't make him a bad person . . . just a typical millennial. GET. OFF. OF. MY. LAWN!!!
 |
| Hey nice course. What are greens fees running these days? $40? $50? Shit you got a twilight rate? |
Webb Simpson is getting much love this week and I'm on board. He has a sneaky top twenty world ranking and just finished T5th at the Masters where he had never fared better than a T20th. I'm also buying-in on Shane Lowry as everyone who cares about me just shakes their heads in disbelief as they've seen me go down this road time and time and time again with the same dismal results. "When will he learn?" they ask. "Maybe next week" I answer. (Then again, maybe not).
Hey how about some sleepers. Very begrudgingly I will offer-up Graeme McDowell who I do not like and yes it's because I still haven't forgotten the cardigan sweaters. However, he has been playing well lately and he did win the last U.S. Open played here. Those facts are inescapable. Don't even try. They're way too fast. I'm also going with last week's FGR pick Scott Piercy who missed the cut in Canada so you fucking owe me Piercy!!!
And finally we have Nick Taylor who was on his way to be the first Canadian to win his country's national championship since 1954 until he ran into a couple of obstacles we like to call round three and round four. He tumbled to a tie for 27th but he did play two great rounds which, in Canada, is cause for a parade. He also happens to play pretty well at Pebble Beach so maybe he'll play two good rounds in a real major and they'll name a bridge after him. The Ponce de Nick or some shit like that.
 |
| I'm counting on a lot of blank stares and understated fist pumps this week. |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth
Sleeper Pick: Scott Piercy
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,300
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$10,300
|
Francesco Molinari
|
$9,000
|
Xander Schauffele
|
$8,700
|
Paul Casey
|
$8,300
|
Webb Simpson
|
$7,700
|
Shane Lowry
|
$7,500
|
Graeme McDowell
|
$7,300
|
Scott Piercy
|
$7,000
|
Nick Taylor
|
$6,500
|
You have to be very careful about using past performances at regular tour events when doing pre-majors analysis. It's kind of like trying to eat spaghetti in a white shirt. You wouldn't draw it up that way but you're wearing a white shirt and they're serving spaghetti so what are you supposed to do. That stupid analogy aside, I think there is some value in looking at recent AT&T Pro-Am results because guys like Tiger, Phil and Brandt Snedeker always play it well and all three of them finished top ten the last time the U.S. Open was at Pebble Beach. Speaking of which, I'm probably making a mistake by blowing-off Snedeker this week considering his solid overall U.S. Open record and improved play of late but it really wouldn't be the Fantasy Golf Report without the right answer staring me in the face and me inventing reasons to go the other way.
THE CLINT EASTWOOD TALKING CHAIR
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2019
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
|
Brooks Koepka
|
$11,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T8
|
DNP
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,300
|
T45
|
T2
|
3rd
|
T41
|
T4
|
Tiger Woods
|
$10,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$10,500
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$10,300
|
T45
|
T20
|
1st
|
T21
|
T7
|
Patrick Cantlay
|
$10,000
|
DNP
|
T35
|
T48
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Justin Rose
|
$9,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T39
|
T6
|
DNP
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$9,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T21
|
Justin Thomas
|
$9,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jon Rahm
|
$9,200
|
DNP
|
T26
|
T5
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jason Day
|
$9,100
|
T4
|
T2
|
T5
|
T11
|
T4
|
Francesco Molinari
|
$9,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$8,900
|
T45
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
$8,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Xander Schauffele
|
$8,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T66
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Adam Scott
|
$8,600
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$8,500
|
T22
|
T62
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Tony Finau
|
$8,400
|
T38
|
DNP
|
T23
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Paul Casey
|
$8,300
|
2nd
|
T8
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Phil Mickelson
|
$8,200
|
1st
|
T2
|
65th
|
2nd
|
DNP
|
Bryson DeChambeau
|
$8,100
|
DNP
|
T55
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Gary Woodland
|
$8,000
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T5
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Louis Oosthuizen
|
$7,900
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Patrick Reed
|
$7,900
|
T22
|
MC
|
T23
|
T6
|
T29
|
Marc Leishman
|
$7,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$7,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kevin Na
|
$7,700
|
DNP
|
T20
|
DNP
|
MC
|
MC
|
Rory Sabbatini
|
$7,700
|
MC
|
72nd
|
T48
|
MC
|
MC
|
Webb Simpson
|
$7,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Bubba Watson
|
$7,600
|
DNP
|
T35
|
DNP
|
T70
|
DNP
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$7,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Wallace
|
$7,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$7,500
|
MC
|
T20
|
4th
|
T35
|
1st
|
Ian Poulter
|
$7,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
MC
|
Shane Lowry
|
$7,500
|
MC
|
T43
|
T14
|
T41
|
T21
|
Emiliano Grillo
|
$7,400
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$7,400
|
T28
|
MC
|
T10
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Martin Kaymer
|
$7,400
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Fitzpatrick
|
$7,400
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Cameron Smith
|
$7,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T11
|
MC
|
Graeme McDowell
|
$7,300
|
T18
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
J.B. Holmes
|
$7,300
|
MC
|
MC
|
T23
|
T11
|
T10
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
|
$7,300
|
T22
|
T26
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Branden Grace
|
$7,200
|
T28
|
T20
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Hao-Tong Li
|
$7,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jim Furyk
|
$7,200
|
T14
|
DNP
|
T66
|
DNP
|
T7
|
Tyrrell Hatton
|
$7,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Si Woo Kim
|
$7,100
|
T4
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T35
|
T18
|
Jimmy Walker
|
$7,000
|
MC
|
T8
|
T55
|
T11
|
T21
|
Keegan Bradley
|
$7,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Lucas Glover
|
$7,000
|
T7
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T11
|
DNP
|
Scott Piercy
|
$7,000
|
T10
|
T20
|
T55
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Thomas Pieters
|
$7,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Aaron Wise
|
$6,900
|
DNP
|
T15
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Chez Reavie
|
$6,900
|
T38
|
T2
|
MC
|
T26
|
MC
|
Thor Olesen
|
$6,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Jones
|
$6,700
|
T53
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T11
|
T7
|
Chesson Hadley
|
$6,600
|
MC
|
T35
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T10
|
Luke Donald
|
$6,600
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T23
|
T26
|
DNP
|
Nick Taylor
|
$6,500
|
T28
|
MC
|
T10
|
T30
|
MC
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
