Fantasy Golf: Texas Children's Open Preview

I was left mostly unattended and to my own devices last weekend and we know how that usually turns out. Friday I joined some friends to watch the tourney with the sincere intention of making it a dry affair, however, when I arrived one too many beers had just arrived at the table and it obviously would have been wasteful to just let it sit there getting warm so I drank it. And it tasted so good that I drank four more. 

It being one of the first nice weather days of the year, I then went to the course to walk a few holes but not before stopping in to grab a Gray Goose Transfusion to keep me company. I subsequently worked-up an appetite which led me back to the bar for a burger, a beer and a glass of wine (to accompany the burger). I then went home and drank more wine while while having phone conversations with my out of town drunk friends, the content of which none of us will remember. 

Saturday was just your standard seven beer round of golf followed by one more in the bar that turned into three more with some derelicts who had already been there for two hours. Then it was a switch to wine before the manager turned the lights out on us. A few guys headed to the bar where middle-aged locals go at 10:00 p.m. on a Saturday night but I called it quits and went home because in the end, it's really all about making good choices.     

GOLF ANALYSIS

Well at least last week's winner was among the three players I narrowed it down to even if he didn't make the top two. That's progress right? Sure feels like progress. 

This week we head to Texas with a field that now does not include Scottie Scheffler who withdrew due to "family reasons" which we all know means his wife has told him he's been playing too much golf. Maybe the break will help Scottie overcome some of his recent sulking and get back on track before the Masters. 

That leaves the field wide open on a golf course that favors "ball-strikers" with past winners that include Min Woo Lee, Tony Finau and Jason Kokrak. Our various processes and algorithms have identified a few players in the field cut directly from that mold. Most notably Chris Gotterup, Jake Knapp and Marco Penge. Applying the "best player" theory, we're going with fellow lax bro Gotterup (though I'm pretty sure I was too scrawny and my hair was way too dorky to claim lax bro status . . . had the douchy part down though). 

Ben Griffin and Ryan Gerard are solid top ten values at +270 and +300 respectively but the odds/upside on Penge are a little better and we also like Aaron Rai who we picked to win last year. There must have been a reason we thought that made sense.

The aforementioned Finau who also has a runner-up here seems to be working out of his slump with three recent top twenty finishes and Sungjae Im showed he's back from injury with a T4 at the Valspar. As for our sleeper pick we're going with Lee Hodges because frankly, we've run out of ideas. 

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Chris Gotterup	+2050
Top 5	Jake Knapp	+455
Top 10	Marco Penge	+310
Top 10	Aaron Rai	+560
Top 20	Lee Hodges	+315

One and Done Pick: Chris Gotterup 

Big boy must have been quite a
load coming down the alley.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jake Knapp

Sleeper Pick: Lee Hodges

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Chris Gotterup	$9,800
Jake Knapp	$9,500
Marco Penge	$9,100
Ben Griffin	$8,800
Ryan Gerard	$8,400
Alex Smalley	$7,800
Aaron Rai	$7,700
Tony Finau	$7,600
Sungjae Im	$7,500
Lee Hodges	$7,000

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Fantasy Golf: The Valspar Championship Preview

Every so often you find yourself in one of those situations that evokes a fond memory that is almost completely based on fiction. This often occurs to parents of college kids when they venture into a frat house or some shithole bar wondering how they once survived four or more years in and around more air and surface borne viruses than the CDC could separate and identify in a year. If you made the mistake of wearing flip-flops, you certainly wouldn't make it again, assuming you live long enough to have the opportunity.

We briefly walked into one of those situations last weekend when we agreed to meet a friend who was coming to Baltimore for a bar crawl. It's kind of a big deal when people volunteer to meet you in Baltimore because asking friends from as far out of town as fifteen miles to meet you there for a beer is akin to inviting a couple on a Viking Cruise through the Strait of Hormuz.  

In my now typical state of late middle-aged cluelessness, I wandered into the Federal Hill bar district around 4:30 p.m. on the Saturday before St. Patrick's Day and was genuinely surprised to find the streets running amok with drunken twenty-somethings. Don't these people have homes?!?

After ten minutes of searching for a parking spot and one more trip around the block shy of bailing altogether, we dodged a series of roving mobs to finally arrive at a bar that seemed to think it was in Ibiza. The music was cranked to a level so intense that you could feel yourself becoming homicidal which would've made sense for an exotic nightclub but, at this particular location, it was just a bunch of people who vied for the title of least likely to exceed expectations in high school. 

And then there was us standing there making people wonder who invited their parents. Our friend tried to introduce us to another guy and, when he didn't catch my name the first time, instead of repeating it I literally said, "it doesn't matter." We both laughed knowing that would probably be the extent of our relationship. His group had all of the earmarks of one that was universally miserable at its current location while lacking a single member with the gumption to speak-up and get them the hell out of there. Fortunately, we had no such obligation so we downed our beers faster than Norm Peterson and left. 

Our next stop was a fundraiser at a crunchy urban brewery where various local artists performed acoustic cover songs. It was all very kumbaya Joni Mitchell like and the only virus we were at risk of catching was good vibes. We drank shitty craft beer while having adult conversations about work and kids. I even met a new guy who I might actually talk to again someday. Don't bother asking me his name.    

GOLF ANALYSIS

Despite the Thursday morning apocalypse of scrolling down the leaderboard and seeing that Collin Morikawa had decided to call it a day after putting in a solid twenty minutes of work, the picks last week faired well with Robert MacIntyre and Sepp Straka making good on our top ten recommendations. Of course the tournament was long dead to me by that point but hopefully you all benefitted from my good foresight. 

Now we head to the Valspar Championship, an event once dominated by Sam Burns who, in one of the more bizarre runs, won it twice in a row before missing the last two cuts and bailing altogether this year. Fortunately we still have a full stable of players who feel comfortable on one of the Tour's more demanding ball-striking venues (holy shit I almost felt like a real golf writer there for a minute). 

We're going to eschew the three favorites for the better odds of the next three guys who are just as, if not more qualified. Matt Fitzpatrick, Jacob Bridgeman and Justin Thomas all have ideal games for the Copperhead course and come in off of strong effotrs at Sawgrass. At least two of them will show well and we're leaning towards Bridgeman and Thomas. Fitzpatrick can be a bit of a flake. I mean he is British after all.

Corey Conners and Ryo Hisatsune are no brainers. Funny story. I was today years old when I finally learned how to spell Hisatsune's name correctly after thinking the announcers had been pronouncing it wrong for two years (because why would I think the professionals were right and I was wrong?). This comes after years of spelling "Conners" wrong but, in my defense, I don't speak Canadian.

Taylor Moore, Bud Cauley and Billy Horschel offer another nice triple combination of two-man parlay options. Horschel has gone T12, T4 here the last two years and putting him in a top thirty bet with either of the other two will get you about 7 to 1. But please gamble responsibly. We really mean it. That's why we drew attention to it like this.    

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Justin Thomas	+2250
Top 5	Jacob Bridgeman	+430
Top 10	Corey Conners	+280
Top 10	Taylor Moore	+540
Top 20	Billy Horschel	+330

One and Done Pick: Justin Thomas

We need a JT level spark to 
drag us out of this malaise.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jacob Bridgeman

Sleeper Pick: Billy Horschel

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Matt Fitzpatrick	$9,800
Jacob Bridgeman	$9,600
Justin Thomas	$9,500
Corey Conners	$9,000
Ryo Hisatsune	$8,600
Ricky Castillo	$7,900
Taylor Moore	$7,500
Bud Cauley	$7,500
Billy Horschel	$7,200
Michael Kim	$6,900

This week's chart recognizes the Venezuelan World Baseball Classic team which actually did us a favor last night by knocking American sports fans off of their ridiculously fucking high horse. We were already insufferable after the Olympic hockey games. At least last night's result should just keep us at that level.  

SOMOS LOS CAMPEONES

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

One question everyone needs to answer for themself this week by looking to their own person god is whether 2015 champion Jordan Spieth's game is in any kind of reliable shape. I posed the question skyward and my guy came back with a hard "no". 

	DK Price	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Xander Schauffele	$10,900	T12	T5	DNP	T12	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$10,400	1st	DNP	DNP	T33	T3
Akshay Bhatia	$10,000	DNP	T17	MC	DNP	DNP
Matt Fitzpatrick	$9,800	DNP	DNP	MC	T5	DNP
Jacob Bridgeman	$9,600	3rd	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Thomas	$9,500	2nd	T64	T10	T3	T13
Patrick Cantlay	$9,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$9,300	T28	MC	T3	DNP	DNP
Ben Griffin	$9,200	MC	T17	T45	DNP	DNP
Brooks Koepka	$9,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	T12	DNP
Corey Conners	$9,000	T8	DNP	DNP	DNP	T21
Nicolai Hojgarrd	$8,900	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$8,800	T36	DNP	DNP	T7	DNP
J.J. Spaun	$8,700	DNP	MC	DNP	T27	MC
Ryo Hisatsune	$8,600	T4	T33	DNP	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$8,500	DNP	MC	DNP	MC	2nd
Nick Taylor	$8,400	DNP	T64	T10	T70	MC
Taylor Pendrith	$8,300	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Thompson	$8,200	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rasmus Hojgaard	$8,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Max Homa	$8,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T6
Wyndham Clark	$8,000	DNP	DNP	5th	MC	DNP
Aaron Rai	$7,900	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ricky Castillo	$7,900	T12	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Alex Smalley	$7,800	MC	MC	T27	MC	DNP
Matt McCarty	$7,800	T16	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,700	MC	T9	DNP	T62	DNP
Pierceson Coody	$7,700	DNP	W/D	MC	DNP	DNP
Thor Olesen	$7,600	T36	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Greyserman	$7,600	DNP	T33	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Rodgers	$7,600	DNP	MC	T36	DNP	MC
Taylor Moore	$7,500	MC	T12	1st	MC	DNP
Bud Cauley	$7,500	T4	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max McGreevy	$7,500	T54	DNP	MC	T48	DNP
Rasmus Peterson	$7,400	T22	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kristoffer Reitan	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mac Meissner	$7,400	T28	T26	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Smotherman	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Marco Penge	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Smith	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
John Parry	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lucas Glover	$7,200	T8	11th	T36	DNP	T48
Billy Horschel	$7,200	T4	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Wallace	$7,200	MC	T17	T7	MC	DNP
Blades Brown	$7,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tony Finau	$7,200	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Kim	$7,100	T36	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$7,100	T36	T5	DNP	MC	MC
Matti Schmid	$7,100	T28	T17	MC	DNP	DNP
John Keefer	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$7,100	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	T29
Kevin Roy	$7,000	MC	T12	MC	DNP	DNP
Eric Cole	$7,000	T12	T33	MC	DNP	DNP
Denny McCarthy	$7,000	DNP	DNP	T19	T48	T39
Rico Hoey	$7,000	MC	T54	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kris Ventura	$7,000	77th	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Michael Kim	$6,900	T28	T33	T45	DNP	MC
Luke Clanton	$6,900	T42	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Doug Ghim	$6,900	T57	T67	T27	DNP	MC
Lee Hodges	$6,900	DNP	T26	T63	MC	DNP
Andrew Novak	$6,800	T42	T17	T27	MC	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$6,700	MC	T5	MC	T7	MC
Beau Hossler	$6,700	T70	MC	MC	DNP	T39
Austin Eckroat	$6,700	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Vince Whaley	$6,700	MC	T54	DNP	MC	T29
Kevin Yu	$6,600	T12	MC	DNP	MC	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$6,600	MC	MC	DNP	MC	MC
Steven Fisk	$6,600	T28	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$6,600	T22	DNP	DNP	MC	MC
Davis Riley	$6,500	7th	MC	T19	2nd	DNP
Webb Simpson	$6,500	MC	T54	T7	T48	DNP
Mark Hubbard	$6,400	T47	DNP	MC	DNP	MC

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