Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Fantasy Golf: The Farmers Insurance Open Preview

When I am writing in peak form, these previews come out on Tuesday night with some attempt at a clever self-referential introduction designed to make the fuck-ups out there think, "well, at least I'm not alone." So here I sit trying to polish this turd on Wednesday afternoon after a long weekend playing lacrosse in Florida with a group of fellow miscreants that provided too much fodder for just a couple of intro paragraphs so you will hopefully find it as a stand-alone post later this week. That, however, will depend on whether intermittent waves of pain and codeine induced haze serve as writing facilitators or inhibitors. (How's that for a tease?) I can't wait to find out myself. 

For now, however, we're just going to stick with the mission statement of doling-out great fantasy golf advice and, for the first time in the history of the Fantasy Golf Report, we may actually be fulfilling that objective coming-off a week when we ignored conventional bullshit and gave you Abraham Ancer (2nd), Scottie Scheffler (3rd) and Bud Cauley (T4th). I think after all of these freakin' years, we might finally be onto something. We'll see. But first . . . 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

For the second week in a row I'm featuring my own tweet because I can.


SUDDENLY SALIENT GOLF ANALYSIS 

I know it can be dangerous to continue to run against historical trends, especially at a course like Torrey Pines which ranks high on the list of places where you can count on a handful of players to perform every year but I'm doing it anyway. Kind of. Logic would dictate that you start with Tiger Woods, Jason Day, Justin Rose and Brandt Snedeker without even blinking and then get creative from there. I have no reason to tell you to shy away from Rose other than the fact that I like Jon Rahm better in that top tier and Sneds is never a bad pick here but consider the following with regards to Messieurs Woods and Day:

1. Health is an issue for these two more than any other top players in the world over the past five years and the ocean side temps this week are going to start in the low 50's. That ain't prime creaky middle aged guy weather. Trust me.

2. Day has not had a top ten since the 2019 Travelers. Yes he's the kind of player who can turn it around in a hurry but that's a far cry from the consistent form he was showing upon arrival when he finished 1st and T5th the last two years. 

3. I don't really have a third thing so see points 1 and 2.

Here's another thing you better damn well consider about Torrey Pines. New guys generally do not fare well here. If you look at the recent leaderboards, you'd be hard-pressed to find a random young guy in the top ten other than Talor Gooch's T3 last year. So initially I had Scottie Scheffler and Colin Morikawa in the mix but they have been summarily dismissed in favor of Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman. No offense boys. It's not you. It's Torrey Pines.

With that being said, I am taking a flyer on Lanto Griffin because come on, how great is that name? Also, he finished T12 here in 2018 so he is not without credentials. Rounding-out the top ten are Bud Cauley who will have a big comeback year sooner or later, Keegan Bradley who is a great fit and is playing well, and Scott Stallings who won here in 2014 and backed that up by finishing second in 2015. 

And with that all over the road lead-up, I'm picking Tony Finau this week. He's got the perfect long ball game and the kind of record here that is clearly trending towards a title. And with all due respect to the Puerto Rico Open, he is far too good a player for that to be the signature (and only) win of his career at this point. Oh and if you haven't already used Jon Rahm, pick him instead.      
  
Kind of makes you wonder why one
would choose a lacrosse trip to Florida
that ended-up in a Codeine haze.
One and Done Pick: Tony Finau

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jon Rahm


Sleeper Pick: Scott Stallings


DraftKings Top Ten Values


Jon Rahm
$11,300
Hideki Matsuyama
$9,900
Tony Finau
$9,300
Cameron Smith
$8,800
Brandt Snedeker
$8,400
Marc Leishman
$8,300
Lanto Griffin
$7,900
Bud Cauley
$7,600
Keegan Bradley
$7,300
Scott Stallings
$6,900

And here is everyone who warranted consideration this week. Best of the rest would include Gary Woodland, Ryan Palmer, Jason Kokrak and Rory Sabbatini. At least two of them will find their way into the top ten forcing me to slightly overreact and regret every decision I've ever made in my life. 

                                    THE AARON RODGERS MEMORIAL
                                  HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Rory McIlroy
$11,600
T5
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jon Rahm
$11,300
T5
T29
1st
DNP
DNP
Tiger Woods
$10,800
T20
T23
MC
DNP
DNP
Justin Rose
$10,300
1st
T8
T4
MC
MC
Xander Schauffele
$10,100
T25
MC
MC
DNP
DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
$9,900
T3
T12
T33
MC
MC
Rickie Fowler
$9,700
T66
MC
MC
MC
T61
Gary Woodland
$9,500
T9
T12
T20
T18
T45
Tony Finau
$9,300
T13
T6
T4
T18
T24
Patrick Reed
$9,200
T13
T23
DNP
W/D
DNP
Sungjae Im
$9,100
T52
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jason Day
$9,000
T5
1st
MC
MC
1st
Colin Morikawa
$8,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Scottie Scheffler
$8,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Cameron Smith
$8,700
T9
T20
T33
MC
MC
Joaquin Niemann
$8,600
T72
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jordan Spieth
$8,500
T35
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
Brandt Snedeker
$8,400
T62
T45
T9
1st
T19
Marc Leishman
$8,300
T43
T8
T20
MC
T27
Matthew Wolff
$8,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Billy Horschel
$8,100
8th
T54
T64
T8
MC
Ryan Palmer
$8,000
T13
T2
DNP
DNP
DNP
Fran Molinari
$7,900
DNP
T45
T14
MC
DNP
Lanto Griffin
$7,900
DNP
T12
DNP
DNP
DNP
Cameron Champ
$7,800
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Emiliano Grillo
$7,800
T52
T12
T33
MC
DNP
Byeong Hun An
$7,700
DNP
DNP
T49
DNP
DNP
Jason Kokrak
$7,700
T20
DNP
MC
T25
DNP
Bud Cauley
$7,600
T13
T58
MC
T25
DNP
Russell Knox
$7,600
T43
T29
DNP
DNP
MC
Bubba Watson
$7,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Phil Mickelson
$7,500
DNP
T45
T14
MC
MC
Joel Dahmen
$7,400
T9
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
Harris English
$7,400
MC
T8
T14
T31
T2
Keegan Bradley
$7,300
T35
5th
T4
MC
T41
Lucas Glover
$7,200
DNP
T67
T33
MC
T24
Nick Watney
$7,200
T72
T58
MC
MC
T7
Rory Sabbatini
$7,200
T70
T20
T14
MC
DNP
Talor Gooch
$7,200
T3
T51
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brendan Steele
$7,100
MC
T29
T20
T49
T45
Pat Perez
$7,000
MC
DNP
T4
MC
74th
J.B. Holmes
$6,900
MC
4th
T33
T6
T2
Scott Stallings
$6,900
T43
MC
MC
T25
T2
Kyle Stanley
$6,800
MC
T51
T14
T25
T67
Jimmy Walker
$6,600
MC
T63
MC
T4
T7

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com