I'm not going to get too hung-up on the success of last week's picks because we all know how fleeting that can be let's just note for the haters out there that I did recommend Tyrrell Hatton (1st), Marc Leishman (2nd), Bryson DeChambeau (4th), Keith Mitchell (T5th) and Matthew Fitzpatrick (T9th). Of course the other five guys I recommended either withdrew or missed the cut but good god do I have to do everything around here?!?!
Let us take an extra moment to bask in the glory of those picks . . . and we're done.
Now we move on to my favorite venue of the year because for an acerbic writer who never met an overly hyped fraud he didn't want to mock, The Players is the golf gift that keeps on giving. Just last night as I was drifting off to sleep on the couch next to an unfinished glass of bottom shelf Pinot Noir (again), I could faintly hear the desperate whine of Brandel Chamblee claiming that TPC Sawgrass is a special course because it doesn't favor a certain type of player. And he's kind of right. If that certain type of player it doesn't favor is a great player.
Consider for the sake of friendly discussion that we define a "great" player as one who has won three or more majors in his career. In the last eighteen years, The Players has been won by a "great" player three times - Phil Mickelson in 2007, Tiger Woods in 2013 and Rory McIlroy in 2019. Seems kind of light for a tournament with that supposed level of prestige.* In fact, Rory's win list year was the first time since 2014 that a multiple major winner even finished in the top five (Martin Kaymer won that year and Jordan Spieth finished T4th). I don't really have salient point here. Just noting that great players don't seem to win this great tournament that much.
But believe it or not, I'm not here to bury The Players this year because it's actually been on a good run since 2012 with only Si-Woo Kim's win in 2017 disrupting an otherwise solid roster of winners including Tiger, Rory, Kaymer, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler. That's five major winners and arguably two of the best yet to win a major. Also, top five finishers the last two years have included Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter and Day. So for what it's worth, The Players seems to have emerged from its funk of 2002-2010 (pun intended . . . way inside golf joke).
What it hasn't emerged from, however, is its inferiority complex. They've been playing this thing since 1974 and those with a vested interest in it still just can't seem to accept the fact that it will never be considered a major and treat it for what it is . . . a really fun tournament to watch that pays the winner a shitload of money and gives him a nice "and" on his golfing resume. Rory has won four majors "and" a The Players. Rickie Fowler has played on multiple Ryder Cup teams "and" won The Players. Craig Perks has a winning smile "and" he's won The Players.
Just accept the fact that we already have all of the major scenarios covered. We've got one at the same course every year, one we let the Marquis de Sade set-up, one we let the British host and one where we invite the poor bastards who have to put-up with us playing five and half hour rounds and destroying golf carts every weekend. We don't need one at a tricked-up resort course four Waffle Houses outside of Jacksonville. So let's just get past all that gibberish and enjoy the next four days of golf's answer to the Bravo Channel.
And now this . . .
TWEET OF THE WEEK
I'm headed to a somewhat remote destination on Friday. Good luck everyone and please try to have this shit straightened-out by the time I get back. Thanks.**
I feel cautiously optimistic about this week's picks as I have thoroughly convinced myself that the champion is going to be a guy who hasn't won a major yet but who everyone is confident eventually will. To me that makes Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele no-brainers. Especially since Rahm could've won here last year before melting down on Sunday and Schauffele's 2018 performance would've won just about every other year that Webb Simpson didn't lap the field.
And then there is the suddenly intriguing Tommy Fleetwood who we last saw submerging his first PGA Tour win to the right of the 18th green at PGA National. From a purely golfing standpoint, Fleetwood currently reminds me of 2008 Sergio Garcia. Two 29 year old sublime ball-strikers and streaky putters (to put it kindly) who feel very comfortable around Sawgrass at a time when they're battling the perception that the quality of their games should be yielding more impressive results (because they should). I just have a feeling that Fleetwood is going to get part of that monkey off his back this week.
As for the rest of the picks, I wasn't quite willing to go all-in on my non-major winner theory so I'm recommending Webb Simpson over the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama though they would all be fine choices and I would rank them in that order. Collin Morikawa hasn't missed a cut since turning pro and he just ground-out a tie for 9th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. And you have to pick Matt Kuchar here. That's just a rule and I don't make the rules.
I waffled a bit on Ian Poulter but, in the end, it came down to him or Billy Horschel for that spot so just pick your preferred enigma and pray he shows-up. And I know I'm jinxing the ever loving shit out of this but I love Matthew Fitzpatrick, Abraham Ancer and Joel Dahmen this week and will be genuinely surprised if at least two of them don't find their way into the top 20. And yes I said genuinely surprised. Not that faux surprise I exhibit after burping like Booger from Revenge of the Nerds.
One and Done Pick: Tommy Fleetwood
Other Guy I'd Pick: Jon Rahm
Sleeper Pick: Joel Dahmen
DraftKings Top Ten Values
The Historical Performance Chart is long if not distinguished this week because frankly it has to be to get all the way down to past champion Si Woo Kim and other guys you might want to consider like Brian Harman and Sung Kang. For my last jab, I will say that the shot dispersion of top tens on this chart is not one you traditionally find for tournaments that objective people consider elite (pipe down Brandel).
THE FAKE NEWS KILLED MY 401K
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Footnote
* If you want to try to torpedo my argument, just raise the fact that, by my definition, there are really only four "great" players currently competing at the highest level and that would include Tiger so of course they're not going to win at Sawgrass that often. However, Rory, Spieth and Brooks Koepka have all taken multiple runs at this thing while in their primes with a far lower success rate as measured in wins and top tens than they have at the majors. The same goes for Tiger and Phil Mickelson who have combined for three Players wins and a smattering of competitive finishes compared to their major records. To complete Phil's quote with the unsaid part, "I look at this course . . . I just can't believe I've actually won here (because I hate this place)."
** For the record, I am only making light of the Coronavirus because that's my job and because I think that you can mock something and simultaneously take it seriously as a threat until you know it's not. You kind of have to take this approach when your favorite team plays the Cleveland Browns twice a year.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
Let us take an extra moment to bask in the glory of those picks . . . and we're done.
Now we move on to my favorite venue of the year because for an acerbic writer who never met an overly hyped fraud he didn't want to mock, The Players is the golf gift that keeps on giving. Just last night as I was drifting off to sleep on the couch next to an unfinished glass of bottom shelf Pinot Noir (again), I could faintly hear the desperate whine of Brandel Chamblee claiming that TPC Sawgrass is a special course because it doesn't favor a certain type of player. And he's kind of right. If that certain type of player it doesn't favor is a great player.
Consider for the sake of friendly discussion that we define a "great" player as one who has won three or more majors in his career. In the last eighteen years, The Players has been won by a "great" player three times - Phil Mickelson in 2007, Tiger Woods in 2013 and Rory McIlroy in 2019. Seems kind of light for a tournament with that supposed level of prestige.* In fact, Rory's win list year was the first time since 2014 that a multiple major winner even finished in the top five (Martin Kaymer won that year and Jordan Spieth finished T4th). I don't really have salient point here. Just noting that great players don't seem to win this great tournament that much.
But believe it or not, I'm not here to bury The Players this year because it's actually been on a good run since 2012 with only Si-Woo Kim's win in 2017 disrupting an otherwise solid roster of winners including Tiger, Rory, Kaymer, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler. That's five major winners and arguably two of the best yet to win a major. Also, top five finishers the last two years have included Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter and Day. So for what it's worth, The Players seems to have emerged from its funk of 2002-2010 (pun intended . . . way inside golf joke).
What it hasn't emerged from, however, is its inferiority complex. They've been playing this thing since 1974 and those with a vested interest in it still just can't seem to accept the fact that it will never be considered a major and treat it for what it is . . . a really fun tournament to watch that pays the winner a shitload of money and gives him a nice "and" on his golfing resume. Rory has won four majors "and" a The Players. Rickie Fowler has played on multiple Ryder Cup teams "and" won The Players. Craig Perks has a winning smile "and" he's won The Players.
Just accept the fact that we already have all of the major scenarios covered. We've got one at the same course every year, one we let the Marquis de Sade set-up, one we let the British host and one where we invite the poor bastards who have to put-up with us playing five and half hour rounds and destroying golf carts every weekend. We don't need one at a tricked-up resort course four Waffle Houses outside of Jacksonville. So let's just get past all that gibberish and enjoy the next four days of golf's answer to the Bravo Channel.
And now this . . .
TWEET OF THE WEEK
I'm headed to a somewhat remote destination on Friday. Good luck everyone and please try to have this shit straightened-out by the time I get back. Thanks.**
Guys, I was just at Costco and don’t worry, they still have plenty of boogie boards and coffins.— Julius Sharpe (@juliussharpe) March 5, 2020
I feel cautiously optimistic about this week's picks as I have thoroughly convinced myself that the champion is going to be a guy who hasn't won a major yet but who everyone is confident eventually will. To me that makes Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele no-brainers. Especially since Rahm could've won here last year before melting down on Sunday and Schauffele's 2018 performance would've won just about every other year that Webb Simpson didn't lap the field.
And then there is the suddenly intriguing Tommy Fleetwood who we last saw submerging his first PGA Tour win to the right of the 18th green at PGA National. From a purely golfing standpoint, Fleetwood currently reminds me of 2008 Sergio Garcia. Two 29 year old sublime ball-strikers and streaky putters (to put it kindly) who feel very comfortable around Sawgrass at a time when they're battling the perception that the quality of their games should be yielding more impressive results (because they should). I just have a feeling that Fleetwood is going to get part of that monkey off his back this week.
As for the rest of the picks, I wasn't quite willing to go all-in on my non-major winner theory so I'm recommending Webb Simpson over the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama though they would all be fine choices and I would rank them in that order. Collin Morikawa hasn't missed a cut since turning pro and he just ground-out a tie for 9th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. And you have to pick Matt Kuchar here. That's just a rule and I don't make the rules.
I waffled a bit on Ian Poulter but, in the end, it came down to him or Billy Horschel for that spot so just pick your preferred enigma and pray he shows-up. And I know I'm jinxing the ever loving shit out of this but I love Matthew Fitzpatrick, Abraham Ancer and Joel Dahmen this week and will be genuinely surprised if at least two of them don't find their way into the top 20. And yes I said genuinely surprised. Not that faux surprise I exhibit after burping like Booger from Revenge of the Nerds.
 |
| I will say this. It makes for one helluva television show. |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Jon Rahm
Sleeper Pick: Joel Dahmen
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Jon Rahm
|
$11,000
|
Xander Schauffele
|
$9,400
|
Webb Simpson
|
$9,200
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$9,000
|
Collin Morikawa
|
$7,900
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$7,800
|
Ian Poulter
|
$7,300
|
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
$7,300
|
Abraham Ancer
|
$7,200
|
Joel Dahmen
|
$6,600
|
The Historical Performance Chart is long if not distinguished this week because frankly it has to be to get all the way down to past champion Si Woo Kim and other guys you might want to consider like Brian Harman and Sung Kang. For my last jab, I will say that the shot dispersion of top tens on this chart is not one you traditionally find for tournaments that objective people consider elite (pipe down Brandel).
THE FAKE NEWS KILLED MY 401K
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2019
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$11,700
|
1st
|
MC
|
T35
|
T12
|
T8
|
Jon Rahm
|
$11,000
|
T12
|
T63
|
T72
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Justin Thomas
|
$10,800
|
T35
|
T11
|
T75
|
T3
|
T24
|
Brooks Koepka
|
$10,200
|
T56
|
T11
|
T16
|
T35
|
MC
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$10,000
|
T5
|
T17
|
T12
|
T28
|
T69
|
Patrick Cantlay
|
$9,800
|
MC
|
T23
|
T22
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Adam Scott
|
$9,600
|
T12
|
T11
|
T6
|
T12
|
T38
|
Xander Schauffele
|
$9,400
|
MC
|
T2
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Webb Simpson
|
$9,200
|
T16
|
1st
|
T16
|
DNP
|
T66
|
Bryson DeChambeau
|
$9,100
|
T20
|
T37
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$9,000
|
T5
|
T7
|
T41
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$8,900
|
T47
|
MC
|
T60
|
MC
|
1st
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
$8,800
|
T8
|
MC
|
T22
|
T7
|
T17
|
Justin Rose
|
$8,700
|
T8
|
T23
|
T65
|
T19
|
MC
|
Sungjae Im
|
$8,600
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Patrick Reed
|
$8,500
|
T47
|
T41
|
T22
|
MC
|
T24
|
Jason Day
|
$8,400
|
T8
|
T5
|
T60
|
1st
|
MC
|
Gary Woodland
|
$8,300
|
T30
|
MC
|
T75
|
T28
|
MC
|
Paul Casey
|
$8,200
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T22
|
T23
|
W/D
|
Tony Finau
|
$8,100
|
T22
|
T57
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Louis Oosthuizen
|
$8,000
|
T56
|
MC
|
T2
|
T28
|
T69
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$8,000
|
T22
|
70th
|
T30
|
T54
|
T2
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$7,900
|
MC
|
T23
|
T16
|
MC
|
T17
|
Colin Morikawa
|
$7,900
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Byeon Hun An
|
$7,800
|
T26
|
T30
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$7,800
|
T26
|
T17
|
82nd
|
T3
|
MC
|
Shane Lowry
|
$7,800
|
MC
|
T46
|
MC
|
T16
|
MC
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$7,700
|
MC
|
T41
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
Viktor Hovland
|
$7,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Marc Leishman
|
$7,600
|
MC
|
T63
|
MC
|
T64
|
T24
|
Joaquin Niemann
|
$7,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Billy Horschel
|
$7,500
|
T26
|
T37
|
MC
|
T28
|
T13
|
Scottie Scheffler
|
$7,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Phil Mickelson
|
$7,400
|
MC
|
MC
|
T41
|
MC
|
MC
|
Tyrell Hatton
|
$7,400
|
MC
|
MC
|
T41
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Ian Poulter
|
$7,300
|
T56
|
T11
|
T2
|
T57
|
T30
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$7,300
|
T22
|
MC
|
T56
|
MC
|
T2
|
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
$7,300
|
T41
|
T46
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Matt Wallace
|
$7,300
|
T30
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Abraham Ancer
|
$7,200
|
T12
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$7,200
|
T5
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
MC
|
Daniel Berger
|
$7,200
|
T67
|
T57
|
T65
|
T9
|
MC
|
Ryan Moore
|
$7,200
|
T20
|
T30
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
Matthew Wolff
|
$7,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Erik Van Rooyen
|
$7,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Harris English
|
$7,200
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
B. Wiesberger
|
$7,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T12
|
T49
|
MC
|
Charles Howell, III
|
$7,100
|
T35
|
T17
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T56
|
Chez Reavie
|
$7,100
|
MC
|
T30
|
T56
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Francesco Molinari
|
$7,100
|
T56
|
MC
|
T6
|
T7
|
DNP
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
|
$7,100
|
MC
|
T17
|
T4
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Brendon Todd
|
$7,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T51
|
Carlos Ortiz
|
$7,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Adam Hadwin
|
$7,000
|
MC
|
T57
|
T30
|
T39
|
MC
|
Cameron Smith
|
$7,000
|
T56
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kevin Na
|
$7,000
|
78th
|
T46
|
W/D
|
MC
|
T6
|
Lucas Glover
|
$7,000
|
MC
|
T72
|
T6
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Graeme McDowell
|
$6,900
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T69
|
T9
|
T56
|
Keegan Bradley
|
$6,900
|
T16
|
T7
|
T60
|
T35
|
MC
|
Russell Knox
|
$6,900
|
T35
|
MC
|
MC
|
T19
|
T17
|
Talor Gooch
|
$6,900
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jason Kokrak
|
$6,800
|
T47
|
T46
|
MC
|
W/D
|
MC
|
Jim Furyk
|
$6,800
|
2nd
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T35
|
T56
|
Scott Piercy
|
$6,700
|
T56
|
MC
|
MC
|
T23
|
MC
|
Joel Dahmen
|
$6,600
|
T12
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Keith Mitchell
|
$6,600
|
T47
|
T77
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Si Woo Kim
|
$6,600
|
T56
|
T63
|
1st
|
T23
|
DNP
|
Max Homa
|
$6,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brian Harman
|
$6,400
|
T8
|
MC
|
T53
|
T54
|
T8
|
Sung Kang
|
$6,400
|
T47
|
MC
|
T30
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Footnote
* If you want to try to torpedo my argument, just raise the fact that, by my definition, there are really only four "great" players currently competing at the highest level and that would include Tiger so of course they're not going to win at Sawgrass that often. However, Rory, Spieth and Brooks Koepka have all taken multiple runs at this thing while in their primes with a far lower success rate as measured in wins and top tens than they have at the majors. The same goes for Tiger and Phil Mickelson who have combined for three Players wins and a smattering of competitive finishes compared to their major records. To complete Phil's quote with the unsaid part, "I look at this course . . . I just can't believe I've actually won here (because I hate this place)."
** For the record, I am only making light of the Coronavirus because that's my job and because I think that you can mock something and simultaneously take it seriously as a threat until you know it's not. You kind of have to take this approach when your favorite team plays the Cleveland Browns twice a year.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
