Fantasy Golf: The Fortinet Championship Preview

Hello friends. It's been three weeks since we last hung-out but it feels like three years. So much news to catch-up on before we dip our toe back in the tepid waters of fall PGA Tour golf. Let's do a quick review.

• LIVGolf added a few more guys, hosted another "tournament" (so I'm told) and had a few players with nice showings at Wentworth but in the end it was Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm going 1-2-2 so all is right in the golf world and Greg Norman is still a douche. 
• The NFL season kicked-off (finally) and, despite ESPN's annual and ongoing attempt to convince us that the Dallas Cowboys are a viable entity with Mike McCarthy in a key management role, they still comically suck. 
• And finally, the queen died sparking a wave of refreshing monarchy mocking humor because seriously, kings and queens and dukes? In 2022? But we will be respectful of the Queen. After all, she was a head of state, a monarch, a mother to multiple pedophiles and, most importantly, a devoted cousin to her husband. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Per the succession theory referenced below, I think I am now the assistant manager at the Towson Cheesecake Factory and the guy who had that job moves-up to be the Director of Waste Management for the city of Logansport, Indiana.  

Now that Charles is king, Prince William becomes Prince of Wales. Basically, it all shifts up one. For instance, I’m now my next door neighbor, Pauline Cathcart.

— GlennyRodge (@GlennyRodge) September 9, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS

In my entire career as a fantasy golf writer, I think I've watched a total of five shots from this tournament and that was probably by chance as I glanced at a TV trying to look casually not impatient while tapping my credit card on a bar. A cursory review of past leaderboards has, however, revealed that there are some consistent performers and I have done my best to capture that with the picks. 

Maverick McNealy and Denny McCarthy are currently two of the frontrunners for next PGA Tour winner and LIVGolf defector though though both of their families probably have enough bank to make them think twice about it. Especially if they can climb over the LIV guys on the OWGR to become fully major eligible. Mav is currently 71st and Denny is 80th. That's enough motivation for us this week. 

One and Done Pick: Maverick McNealy

I'M BACK BABY!!!

Other Guy I'd Pick: Denny McCarthy  

Sleeper Pick: Beau Hossler 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Corey Conners	$10,300
Maverick McNealy	$9,900
Emiliano Grillo	$9,200
Brendan Steele	$8,900
Denny McCarthy	$8,800
Justin Suh	$8,200
Chez Reavie	$7,600
Nick Hardy	$7,500
Doc Redman	$7,100
Beau Hossler	$6,900

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Fantasy Golf: The Tour Championship Preview

If I was a sports league in the process of defending myself against an extremely well-funded if not comically tone challenged competitor, there are three things I would really like to avoid at this moment: (1) a point shaving (or in this case stroke shaving) scandal that implicated prominent players, (2) a Marv Albert situation involving a high-ranking league official or lead broadcaster, and (3) ending my season with inarguably the most stupid playoff format ever devised. Unfortunately for the PGA Tour, here we are at Door #3.   

In the interest of fairness, we really do have to call the PGA Tour to the carpet for how badly they've butchered this playoff format and sacrificed watchability for the sake of what I guess is an attempt to make sure that the $18M check goes to the most deserving player. What seems to have gotten lost in all of the over analysis is the fact that we really don't give a shit who wins the FedEx Cup money or if they do it by finishing 1st, 5th or 10th at East Lake. I mean we're talking like NFL Pro Bowl level don't give a shit.

This will be the fourth time they've used this half-baked format and the past two were won by the guy who got spotted the lead (Patrick Cantlay and Dustin Johnson). In 2019 Justin Thomas stumbled out of the gate and got pinned against the rail as Rory McIlroy blew by him like Rich Strike at the Derby. Even that one was lame, however, as Rory won by four shots. 

The three preceding years, however, went like this: 

2018: Tiger wins his first tournament in five years.

2017: Young upstart Xander Schauffele beats Justin Thomas by one stroke.

2016: Rory outlasts Kevin Chappell in a four hole playoff.

In the PGA Tour's defense, anyone would look at those storylines and think, "boys . . . we really need to make a change." Sheesh. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

If you haven't picked-up on the FGR's Rory McIlroy crush by now, just know that I also admire his humility.    

This, from Rory on Tiger's impact at yesterday's meeting:

Q. Did Tiger take a leadership position or was he just one of the guys talking when you guys all met?

RORY: I think it's pretty apparent that whenever we all get in the room there's an alpha in there, and it's not me.

— Joel Beall (@JoelMBeall) August 17, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS

Previewing this event feels kind of awkward but I guess we could approach it like Scottie Scheffler opened with 66-64 to take a two shot lead over Patrick Cantlay after the second round of a six round tournament. There, that doesn't sound stupid at all.

I'm dispensing with logic (why stop now?) and gambling that one of the chasers is going to pull a 2019 Rory. I mean the alternative is either Scheffler or Cantlay zombie walking to the title and who wants to root for that? As previously noted, Xander won this thing when it was a real tournament back in 2017 and he hasn't shot a final round over par in any tournament since 2020 or something like that (I think I read it on Twitter yesterday so don't quote me on that).

Jon Rahm knows his way around East Lake pretty well and Rory has a runner-up in 2014 to go along with his two wins so we like him too (yeah, we know). He and Schauffele are the most likely to shoot a bunch of 65's and 66's and steal this thing.

The two best values on the board are probably Justin Thomas and Adam Scott unless you want to buckle-in for the Jordan Spieth experience and hope the ride stays on the rails. Certainly not a guarantee lately.

And then there's Max Homa. Is he going to win? No. Is he the best player I have left in a season of ill-fated picks? Yes. He also might be the most entertaining thing to happen for golf since someone decided to put a magnet on a Bluetooth speaker. Now if someone can just figure-out a way for it to send a text saying "hey you left me stuck to the fucking cart again dumbass" . . . we'd be all set.

One and Done Pick: Max Homa

Maybe this goofy SOB will make
an epic run and salvage this farce. 

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele 

Sleeper Pick: Adam Scott 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Xander Schauffele	$12,300
Jon Rahm	$10,900
Rory McIlroy	$10,800
Justin Thomas	$9,400
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,800
Viktor Hovland	$8,800
Jordan Spieth	$7,800
Max Homa	$7,500
Adam Scott	$6,600
Aaron Wise	$5,400

A tribute to arguably the greatest television show of all-time that many will never see due to it's somewhat off-putting name that even deterred me for a stretch. I must confess that I never finished watching Breaking Bad (I know I know!!!) and I was still enthralled by Better Call Saul which I believe is a ringing endorsement. At least it's meant to be. 

                                         THE SAUL GOODMAN/JIMMY MCGILL

                                         HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

I thought about taking the time to breakdown the results from the last three years to determine how the final leaderboard actually would've looked without the artificial scoring but then I thought . . . nah. 

	DK Price	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Scottie Scheffler	$13,600	T22	5th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$13,000	1st	DNP	T21	T21	T20
Xander Schauffele	$12,300	T5	T2	2nd	T7	1st
Jon Rahm	$10,900	2nd	4th	T12	T11	T7
Rory McIlroy	$10,800	T14	T8	1st	T7	DNP
Cameron Smith	$10,400	T14	T24	DNP	20th	DNP
Sam Burns	$9,900	T18	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tony Finau	$9,600	T11	17th	7th	T15	T7
Justin Thomas	$9,400	4th	T2	T3	T7	2nd
Sunjae Im	$9,100	T20	T11	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Young	$9,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$8,500	T5	T20	DNP	DNP	DNP
Joaquin Niemann	$8,300	29th	T27	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,100	T26	T15	T9	T4	T26
Corey Conners	$8,000	T22	DNP	T26	DNP	DNP
Collin Morikawa	$7,900	T26	6th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$7,800	T20	DNP	DNP	DNP	T7
Max Homa	$7,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Scott Stallings	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sepp Straka	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$6,900	T9	30th	DNP	2nd	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$6,600	DNP	DNP	6th	DNP	DNP
K.H. Lee	$6,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$5,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	T24	DNP
Aaron Wise	$5,400	DNP	DNP	T15	DNP	DNP
J.T. Poston	$5,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$5,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.