Tuesday, September 13, 2022

Fantasy Golf: The Fortinet Championship Preview

Hello friends. It's been three weeks since we last hung-out but it feels like three years. So much news to catch-up on before we dip our toe back in the tepid waters of fall PGA Tour golf. Let's do a quick review.
  • LIVGolf added a few more guys, hosted another "tournament" (so I'm told) and had a few players with nice showings at Wentworth but in the end it was Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm going 1-2-2 so all is right in the golf world and Greg Norman is still a douche. 
  • The NFL season kicked-off (finally) and, despite ESPN's annual and ongoing attempt to convince us that the Dallas Cowboys are a viable entity with Mike McCarthy in a key management role, they still comically suck. 
  • And finally, the queen died sparking a wave of refreshing monarchy mocking humor because seriously, kings and queens and dukes? In 2022? But we will be respectful of the Queen. After all, she was a head of state, a monarch, a mother to multiple pedophiles and, most importantly, a devoted cousin to her husband. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Per the succession theory referenced below, I think I am now the assistant manager at the Towson Cheesecake Factory and the guy who had that job moves-up to be the Director of Waste Management for the city of Logansport, Indiana.  


GOLF ANALYSIS

In my entire career as a fantasy golf writer, I think I've watched a total of five shots from this tournament and that was probably by chance as I glanced at a TV trying to look casually not impatient while tapping my credit card on a bar. A cursory review of past leaderboards has, however, revealed that there are some consistent performers and I have done my best to capture that with the picks. 

Maverick McNealy and Denny McCarthy are currently two of the frontrunners for next PGA Tour winner and LIVGolf defector though though both of their families probably have enough bank to make them think twice about it. Especially if they can climb over the LIV guys on the OWGR to become fully major eligible. Mav is currently 71st and Denny is 80th. That's enough motivation for us this week. 

One and Done Pick: Maverick McNealy
I'M BACK BABY!!!

Other Guy I'd Pick: Denny McCarthy  

Sleeper Pick: Beau Hossler 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Corey Conners

$10,300

Maverick McNealy

$9,900

Emiliano Grillo

$9,200

Brendan Steele

$8,900

Denny McCarthy

$8,800

Justin Suh

$8,200

Chez Reavie

$7,600

Nick Hardy

$7,500

Doc Redman

$7,100

Beau Hossler

$6,900


Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Fantasy Golf: The Tour Championship Preview

If I was a sports league in the process of defending myself against an extremely well-funded if not comically tone challenged competitor, there are three things I would really like to avoid at this moment: (1) a point shaving (or in this case stroke shaving) scandal that implicated prominent players, (2) a Marv Albert situation involving a high-ranking league official or lead broadcaster, and (3) ending my season with inarguably the most stupid playoff format ever devised. Unfortunately for the PGA Tour, here we are at Door #3.   

In the interest of fairness, we really do have to call the PGA Tour to the carpet for how badly they've butchered this playoff format and sacrificed watchability for the sake of what I guess is an attempt to make sure that the $18M check goes to the most deserving player. What seems to have gotten lost in all of the over analysis is the fact that we really don't give a shit who wins the FedEx Cup money or if they do it by finishing 1st, 5th or 10th at East Lake. I mean we're talking like NFL Pro Bowl level don't give a shit.

This will be the fourth time they've used this half-baked format and the past two were won by the guy who got spotted the lead (Patrick Cantlay and Dustin Johnson). In 2019 Justin Thomas stumbled out of the gate and got pinned against the rail as Rory McIlroy blew by him like Rich Strike at the Derby. Even that one was lame, however, as Rory won by four shots. 

The three preceding years, however, went like this: 

2018: Tiger wins his first tournament in five years.
2017: Young upstart Xander Schauffele beats Justin Thomas by one stroke.
2016: Rory outlasts Kevin Chappell in a four hole playoff.

In the PGA Tour's defense, anyone would look at those storylines and think, "boys . . . we really need to make a change." Sheesh. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

If you haven't picked-up on the FGR's Rory McIlroy crush by now, just know that I also admire his humility.    


GOLF ANALYSIS

Previewing this event feels kind of awkward but I guess we could approach it like Scottie Scheffler opened with 66-64 to take a two shot lead over Patrick Cantlay after the second round of a six round tournament. There, that doesn't sound stupid at all.

I'm dispensing with logic (why stop now?) and gambling that one of the chasers is going to pull a 2019 Rory. I mean the alternative is either Scheffler or Cantlay zombie walking to the title and who wants to root for that? As previously noted, Xander won this thing when it was a real tournament back in 2017 and he hasn't shot a final round over par in any tournament since 2020 or something like that (I think I read it on Twitter yesterday so don't quote me on that).

Jon Rahm knows his way around East Lake pretty well and Rory has a runner-up in 2014 to go along with his two wins so we like him too (yeah, we know). He and Schauffele are the most likely to shoot a bunch of 65's and 66's and steal this thing.

The two best values on the board are probably Justin Thomas and Adam Scott unless you want to buckle-in for the Jordan Spieth experience and hope the ride stays on the rails. Certainly not a guarantee lately.

And then there's Max Homa. Is he going to win? No. Is he the best player I have left in a season of ill-fated picks? Yes. He also might be the most entertaining thing to happen for golf since someone decided to put a magnet on a Bluetooth speaker. Now if someone can just figure-out a way for it to send a text saying "hey you left me stuck to the fucking cart again dumbass" . . . we'd be all set.

One and Done Pick: Max Homa
Maybe this goofy SOB will make
an epic run and salvage this farce. 

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele 

Sleeper Pick: Adam Scott 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Xander Schauffele

$12,300

Jon Rahm

$10,900

Rory McIlroy

$10,800

Justin Thomas

$9,400

Matt Fitzpatrick

$8,800

Viktor Hovland

$8,800

Jordan Spieth

$7,800

Max Homa

$7,500

Adam Scott

$6,600

Aaron Wise

$5,400


A tribute to arguably the greatest television show of all-time that many will never see due to it's somewhat off-putting name that even deterred me for a stretch. I must confess that I never finished watching Breaking Bad (I know I know!!!) and I was still enthralled by Better Call Saul which I believe is a ringing endorsement. At least it's meant to be. 

                                         THE SAUL GOODMAN/JIMMY MCGILL
                                         HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

I thought about taking the time to breakdown the results from the last three years to determine how the final leaderboard actually would've looked without the artificial scoring but then I thought . . . nah. 

 

DK Price

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

Scottie Scheffler

$13,600

T22

5th

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$13,000

1st

DNP

T21

T21

T20

Xander Schauffele

$12,300

T5

T2

2nd

T7

1st

Jon Rahm

$10,900

2nd

4th

T12

T11

T7

Rory McIlroy

$10,800

T14

T8

1st

T7

DNP

Cameron Smith

$10,400

T14

T24

DNP

20th

DNP

Sam Burns

$9,900

T18

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tony Finau

$9,600

T11

17th

7th

T15

T7

Justin Thomas

$9,400

4th

T2

T3

T7

2nd

Sunjae Im

$9,100

T20

T11

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Young

$9,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Fitzpatrick

$8,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$8,500

T5

T20

DNP

DNP

DNP

Joaquin Niemann

$8,300

29th

T27

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,100

T26

T15

T9

T4

T26

Corey Conners

$8,000

T22

DNP

T26

DNP

DNP

Collin Morikawa

$7,900

T26

6th

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$7,800

T20

DNP

DNP

DNP

T7

Max Homa

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Scott Stallings

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sepp Straka

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Billy Horschel

$6,900

T9

30th

DNP

2nd

DNP

Sahith Theegala

$6,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Scott

$6,600

DNP

DNP

6th

DNP

DNP

K.H. Lee

$6,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brian Harman

$5,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

T24

DNP

Aaron Wise

$5,400

DNP

DNP

T15

DNP

DNP

J.T. Poston

$5,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tom Hoge

$5,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP


Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com