Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Fantasy Golf: WGC-Mexico Championship Preview

Under ideal conditions when my day job doesn't expect too much from me, I write the majority if not all of the FGR's weekly preview by Tuesday night so that Wednesday morning is just for minor editing and corrections based on reader feedback or maybe the addition of some side-splitting anecdote that came to me while I was sleeping on the couch from 10:03 p.m. until 2:47 a.m. (Spoiler alert: I did not have one of those last night/this morning). 

Under not so ideal conditions, however, I find myself sitting in an orthodontist's waiting room on Wednesday morning staring at pretty much a blank screen on the eve of one of the best tournaments of the year. Not so hypothetically speaking there would be a tantruming kid with a checked-out mom on her phone to my left and ten feet ahead of me would be two people behind the receptionist's desk having a mind-numbing conversation about some fucking knick-knack they found on Etsy. This is the writing equivalent of running on the beach. Into the wind. While carrying a 3/4 full Coors Light Party Ball. Without the benefit of the cops chasing you.

I'll power through it. But first this . . .        

TWEET OF THE WEEK

The guy who pulled-off this athletic achievement somehow finished second in the NBA Slam Dunk Contest. In a related story, Dances With Wolves won the Oscar for Best Picture in the year that Goodfellas was nominated and more people have heard of Dane Cook than Greg Giraldo (jump to about the 1:10 mark and thank me later).* 
HOPEFULLY REDEMPTIVE GOLF ANALYSIS

Last week's stumble was as inevitable as a sports cheating scandal with a Boston connection. Especially after I spent a good part of the preview patting myself on the back for a moderately successful season so far which all but insured Bubba Watson's missed cut. Well that and the fact that Bubba cosmically knows I don't like him and makes me pay for it every time I pick him. And yes I do deep down believe that is true because the universe is absolutely keeping score. 


Normally I try to avoid the obvious pick because it gives me a false sense of intellectual superiority to go against the grain but, if I don't pick Rory McIroy and he wins, it's going to make for a very dark February weekend and I am frankly not in the mood for that so I'm pulling the trigger. Not to mention, Rory is eventually going to win everywhere he plays as he proved at The Players last year so he is due to win here. It should also be noted that I already wasted Dustin Johnson at Pebble Beach so the other obvious pick is unavailable. 

And because I have to pick Rory, that means that I can't also have D.J. in my top ten but you have my permission to flip a coin when deciding between those two. Just know that D.J. entered the final round of his last two tournaments within range of the leader on courses that he loves and he jammed it into reverse both times. 

Jon Rahm was my pick here last year and I must have had good reasons for that then that should apply even more this year as he's never played better. And continuing with my theory that the guys I picked to win in the past are going to play better without the monkey of me on their back, I'm also going with 2018 one and done pick Tommy Fleetwood who rewarded me with a tie for 14th. And I love Tommy so I don't have a cosmic explanation for why he always fails me. Maybe it's a long-haired guy/bald guy thing. 

From there it's just a bunch of Euro guys who seem to love playing golf in Mexico. And then we finally get to Charles Howell, III, Scottie Scheffler and Lanto Griffin. I can't really tell you why I went with them this week other than the fact that that I just really love my country so darn much. USA! USA! USA!  

"Anyone have a good metaphor for
last week's picks? . . . Thank you!"
One and Done Pick: Rory McIlroy

Other Guy I'd Pick: Dustin Johnson

Sleeper Pick: Scottie Scheffler

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy
$11,500
Jon Rahm
$10,200
Tommy Fleetwood
$9,200
Paul Casey
$8,700
Sergio Garcia
$8,600
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
$7,600
Tyrell Hatton
$7,400
Charles Howell, III
$7,100
Scottie Scheffler
$7,100
Lanto Griffin
$6,700

We've only got three years of history at Club de Golf Chpultepec so available research is somewhat limited. Last year I supplemented this chart with a bunch of other statistical crap that said Justin Thomas was going to win and then he proceeded to finish 9th. Suffice it to say that this year I didn't waste time on that fruitless exercise as part of this greater fruitless exercise. 

                  THE HOUSTON ASTROS KEVLAR BATTING HELMET
                              HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2019
2018
2017
Rory McIlroy
$11,500
2nd
DNP
T7
Dustin Johnson
$11,000
1st
T7
1st
Justin Thomas
$10,800
9th
2nd
T5
Jon Rahm
$10,600
T45
T20
T3
Hideki Matsuyama
$10,000
T19
DNP
T25
Webb Simpson
$9,800
T39
T37
DNP
Adam Scott
$9,600
DNP
DNP
T45
Xander Schauffele
$9,400
T14
T18
DNP
Tommy Fleetwood
$9,200
T19
T14
2nd
Bryson DeChambeau
$9,000
T56
DNP
DNP
Louis Oosthuizen
$8,900
T25
T30
T48
Matt Kuchar
$8,800
50th
T58
T20
Paul Casey
$8,700
T3
T12
T16
Sergio Garcia
$8,600
T6
T7
T12
Patrick Reed
$8,400
T14
T37
T61
Gary Woodland
$8,300
T17
T50
T38
Bubba Watson
$8,200
T27
T9
T38
Marc Leishman
$8,100
T62
T37
DNP
Jordan Spieth
$8,000
T54
T14
T12
Matthew Fitzpatrick
$8,000
T27
T30
T16
Abraham Ancer
$7,900
T39
T52
DNP
Sungjae Im
$7,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
Branden Grace
$7,800
T33
T30
T32
Shane Lowry
$7,800
T62
DNP
DNP
Brandt Snedeker
$7,700
DNP
DNP
T7
Cameron Smith
$7,700
T6
DNP
DNP
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
$7,600
T19
T3
T38
Victor Perez
$7,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
Corey Connors
$7,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
Graeme McDowell
$7,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
Bernd Wiesberger
$7,400
DNP
T30
DNP
Byeong Hun An
$7,400
T45
DNP
T48
Tyrell Hatton
$7,400
T19
T3
10th
Billy Horschel
$7,300
T45
DNP
DNP
Chez Reavie
$7,300
T65
T52
DNP
Kevin Na
$7,300
DNP
DNP
T52
Kevin Kisner
$7,200
T27
29th
11th
Kurt Kitayama
$7,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
Charles Howell, III
$7,100
T14
DNP
DNP
Francesco Molinari
$7,100
T17
T25
T20
Scottie Scheffler
$7,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
Danny Willett
$7,000
T27
DNP
69th
Jason Kokrak
$7,000
DNP
DNP
DNP
Sung Kang
$7,000
DNP
DNP
DNP
Lee Westwood
$6,900
T33
DNP
T28
Brendon Todd
$6,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
Lucas Glover
$6,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
Lanto Griffin
$6,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
Carlos Ortiz
$6,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matt Wallace
$6,600
T33
DNP
DNP

Footnote

* And no I was not watching Greg Giraldo clips in the orthodontist's office. If I want to offend a bunch of private school moms, I'll get drunk at the club, crank-up the volume on my inside voice and start talking about farting and manscaping.  

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com