The FGR is on a sabbatical attempting to get its collective shit together for 2020. Hopefully this works-out better than the disastrous sabbatical of 2018 which yielded the tire fire that was 2019. The recipe for this year is less quinoa and yoga . . . more dairy and passing-out drooling on the couch. We've got a good feeling.
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Fantasy Golf: The Tour Championship Preview
I think we have to devote this week's preamble to at least some commentary on the new FedEx Cup format for the Tour Championship. First, let's start with a bit of history and follow the ridiculous path that has landed us where we are today.
Way back in 2005 the PGA Tour decided to team-up with FedEx to develop a playoff system that would maintain fan interest beyond the PGA Championship in August as golf wandered onto football's September turf like a guy in a Saab convertible on West Lanvale Street asking for directions to the Walters Art Gallery while wearing an ascot. Its inaugural year was 2007 when Tiger Woods came into the playoffs with the lead, finished runner-up in the Deutsche Bank Championship and then won the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship to roll away with the $10M. The best player won and we all watched because hey, it was Tiger.
The next year they decided to award a bunch more points for the playoff tournaments to make it feel more like, you know, the playoffs. Unfortunately, no one beta tested the new system for the obvious potential scenario where a guy enters the final event with a big enough point lead so he can't be caught and that's exactly what happened. Vijay Singh didn't even have to play the Tour Championship to win the FedEx Cup despite the fact that Camilo Villegas won at East Lake AND won the BMW Championship AND finished T3 at the Deutsche Bank Championship. I distinctly remember having the same reaction to that outcome that Chazz Rheinhold had when he learned that Jeremy Grey was getting married.
So later in 2008 they tweaked the points again and I guess everyone was ok with that until last year when Justin Rose won the FedEx Cup without winning the Tour Championship after Justin Thomas did the same thing the year before. So it was back to the drawing board and, after years of apparently fumbling with an abacus to not come-up with the consistent outcome they wanted, the people who run this thing finally just said "fuck it . . . if you win the Tour Championship, you win the FedEx Cup." But that raised another problem which was how you continued to make the first two playoff events relevant if only the final one mattered. And to solve that issue, they literally applied the analytical skills of a breakfast burrito and devised the ridiculous handicap format that we will see this week.
The buffoonish optics of this are going to be fantastic starting with the moment that Jason Kokrak hits the first tee shot to open the tournament and Justin Thomas will already be sitting at -10 on the leaderboard. In a perfect world, he will then light it up in the first round so he's -19 through 18 holes and has a 23 shot lead over a thoroughly disinterested Louis Oosthuizen. At least the folks at the USGA should be happy about looking slightly less dysfunctional for a week. It's a good thing we've got PGA Tour propaganda machine Dan Hicks on the call this week because it's going to take some epic spinning to make this not look like a low-budget middle school production of Miss Saigon.
GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
Miko Page on the range https://t.co/JYlg6mlZW5 pic.twitter.com/ytjlEiHqzD
I just don't think Justin Thomas is going to win it despite the head start and the fact that he's playing great right now. So with that ill-fated position taken, the next question is how far down can you go and still find a player with a reasonable shot of catching him? I think the answer is Rory McIlroy who will start five shots back and has the best go-low potential. You might be able to stretch one more shot back and look at Webb Simpson or Xander Schauffele but they have to climb over too many players and shots to get there.
As for values, however, I love that pack starting six shots back including Schauffele, Simpson and I'd throw Hideki Matsuyama in the mix. Working our way down, you have Adam Scott playing well and Tommy Fleetwood as the most likely candidate to come from way back and challenge this bullshit format. Paul Casey is always solid here and the lack of any pressure to win should serve him better than anyone.
Justin Rose is the biggest no-brainer sleeper in the history of them to the extent there is such a history. As for the bargain guys, I think Bryson DeChambeau will play with an even bigger chip on his shoulder as he continues to wonder why he is so disliked when it's clearly everyone's else's fault that he's so unlikable. And finally, Lucas Glover will earn enough bonus money to buy his wife a Maserati which she will promptly drive into the river because she wanted a Ferrari.
One and Done Pick: Rory McIlroy
Other Guy I'd Pick: Justin Thomas
Sleeper Pick: Justin Rose (duh)
DraftKings Top Ten Values
East Lake definitely has its favored sons which include J.T., Rory, Xander, D.J., Paul Casey and Justin Rose and I like all of them this week . . . except for D.J. who appears to have checked-out since his disappointing showing at the U.S. Open (I know I was disappointed). On the other hand, you've got a few high-profile players who haven't found their groove in Atlanta including Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed and Patrick Ewing who probably had his mind on certain post-round festivities . . . if you know what I mean . . . and I think you do.
THE GOLD CLUB HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
Way back in 2005 the PGA Tour decided to team-up with FedEx to develop a playoff system that would maintain fan interest beyond the PGA Championship in August as golf wandered onto football's September turf like a guy in a Saab convertible on West Lanvale Street asking for directions to the Walters Art Gallery while wearing an ascot. Its inaugural year was 2007 when Tiger Woods came into the playoffs with the lead, finished runner-up in the Deutsche Bank Championship and then won the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship to roll away with the $10M. The best player won and we all watched because hey, it was Tiger.
The next year they decided to award a bunch more points for the playoff tournaments to make it feel more like, you know, the playoffs. Unfortunately, no one beta tested the new system for the obvious potential scenario where a guy enters the final event with a big enough point lead so he can't be caught and that's exactly what happened. Vijay Singh didn't even have to play the Tour Championship to win the FedEx Cup despite the fact that Camilo Villegas won at East Lake AND won the BMW Championship AND finished T3 at the Deutsche Bank Championship. I distinctly remember having the same reaction to that outcome that Chazz Rheinhold had when he learned that Jeremy Grey was getting married.
So later in 2008 they tweaked the points again and I guess everyone was ok with that until last year when Justin Rose won the FedEx Cup without winning the Tour Championship after Justin Thomas did the same thing the year before. So it was back to the drawing board and, after years of apparently fumbling with an abacus to not come-up with the consistent outcome they wanted, the people who run this thing finally just said "fuck it . . . if you win the Tour Championship, you win the FedEx Cup." But that raised another problem which was how you continued to make the first two playoff events relevant if only the final one mattered. And to solve that issue, they literally applied the analytical skills of a breakfast burrito and devised the ridiculous handicap format that we will see this week.
The buffoonish optics of this are going to be fantastic starting with the moment that Jason Kokrak hits the first tee shot to open the tournament and Justin Thomas will already be sitting at -10 on the leaderboard. In a perfect world, he will then light it up in the first round so he's -19 through 18 holes and has a 23 shot lead over a thoroughly disinterested Louis Oosthuizen. At least the folks at the USGA should be happy about looking slightly less dysfunctional for a week. It's a good thing we've got PGA Tour propaganda machine Dan Hicks on the call this week because it's going to take some epic spinning to make this not look like a low-budget middle school production of Miss Saigon.
GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
Miko Page on the range https://t.co/JYlg6mlZW5 pic.twitter.com/ytjlEiHqzD
— Golf Babes (@golfbabes) August 9, 2019THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS
I just don't think Justin Thomas is going to win it despite the head start and the fact that he's playing great right now. So with that ill-fated position taken, the next question is how far down can you go and still find a player with a reasonable shot of catching him? I think the answer is Rory McIlroy who will start five shots back and has the best go-low potential. You might be able to stretch one more shot back and look at Webb Simpson or Xander Schauffele but they have to climb over too many players and shots to get there.
As for values, however, I love that pack starting six shots back including Schauffele, Simpson and I'd throw Hideki Matsuyama in the mix. Working our way down, you have Adam Scott playing well and Tommy Fleetwood as the most likely candidate to come from way back and challenge this bullshit format. Paul Casey is always solid here and the lack of any pressure to win should serve him better than anyone.
Justin Rose is the biggest no-brainer sleeper in the history of them to the extent there is such a history. As for the bargain guys, I think Bryson DeChambeau will play with an even bigger chip on his shoulder as he continues to wonder why he is so disliked when it's clearly everyone's else's fault that he's so unlikable. And finally, Lucas Glover will earn enough bonus money to buy his wife a Maserati which she will promptly drive into the river because she wanted a Ferrari.
 |
| A Rory win might actually salvage this mess. Emphasis on "might". |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Justin Thomas
Sleeper Pick: Justin Rose (duh)
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Rory McIlroy
|
$10,600
|
Webb Simpson
|
$9,700
|
Xander Schauffele
|
$9,500
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
$9,300
|
Adam Scott
|
$8,200
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$7,700
|
Paul Casey
|
$7,500
|
Justin Rose
|
$6,900
|
B. DeChambeau
|
$5,500
|
Lucas Glover
|
$5,200
|
East Lake definitely has its favored sons which include J.T., Rory, Xander, D.J., Paul Casey and Justin Rose and I like all of them this week . . . except for D.J. who appears to have checked-out since his disappointing showing at the U.S. Open (I know I was disappointed). On the other hand, you've got a few high-profile players who haven't found their groove in Atlanta including Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed and Patrick Ewing who probably had his mind on certain post-round festivities . . . if you know what I mean . . . and I think you do.
THE GOLD CLUB HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
|
JustinThomas
|
$15,500
|
T7
|
2nd
|
T6
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Patrick Cantlay
|
$12,400
|
T21
|
T20
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brooks Koepka
|
$12,200
|
26th
|
6th
|
DNP
|
T18
|
DNP
|
Rory. McIlroy
|
$10,600
|
T7
|
DNP
|
1st
|
T16
|
T2
|
Patrick Reed
|
$10,200
|
28th
|
T13
|
T24
|
27th
|
T19
|
Jon Rahm
|
$9,900
|
T11
|
T7
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Webb Simpson
|
$9,700
|
T4
|
T13
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T23
|
X. Schauffele
|
$9,500
|
T7
|
1st
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
H. Matsuyama
|
$9,300
|
T4
|
T26
|
5th
|
T12
|
22nd
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$9,100
|
DNP
|
T13
|
T15
|
T10
|
13th
|
Tony Finau
|
$8,800
|
T15
|
T7
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$8,600
|
T7
|
T26
|
DNP
|
T12
|
DNP
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$8,400
|
3rd
|
T17
|
T6
|
T5
|
DNP
|
Adam Scott
|
$8,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T8
|
DNP
|
T9
|
Gary Woodland
|
$8,000
|
T11
|
19th
|
T10
|
DNP
|
T9
|
T. Fleetwood
|
$7,700
|
T11
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Paul Casey
|
$7,500
|
T11
|
5th
|
4th
|
T5
|
DNP
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$7,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T17
|
T22
|
DNP
|
Abraham Ancer
|
$7,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Justin Rose
|
$6,900
|
T4
|
T10
|
DNP
|
T2
|
DNP
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$6,600
|
DNP
|
T3
|
26th
|
28th
|
DNP
|
M. Leishman
|
$6,300
|
T21
|
T24
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Corey Connors
|
$6,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Sungjae Im
|
$5,900
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
L. Oosthuizen
|
$5,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
W/D
|
DNP
|
B. DeChambeau
|
$5,500
|
19th
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jason Kokrak
|
$5,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Lucas Glover
|
$5,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Chez Revie
|
$5,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
CH, III
|
$5,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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