Fantasy Golf: The Players Championship Preview

It's been a bit of a bumpy ride for the FGR starting right about the time Shane Lowry fanned his "layup" tee shot into the water on 16 at PGA National and continuing through whatever you want to call Scottie Scheffler's performance at Bay Hill. The cool thing about picking the best player in the world to win is that you get constant coverage of him right through Sunday regardless of whether he's crushing it or kicking the ball all over the course like that kid whose lacrosse career lasted one practice when it became clear that he couldn't scoop (kind of a prerequisite). 

For some reason I kept tuning-in despite moments like when they cut to Scottie standing over a two foot par putt and Dan Hicks previewing the inevitable outcome with "this is just the kind of week it's been for the world number one." I think the highlight of his tournament was a dead-skulled chip that somehow hit the pin and went in for a par (because he had already hit his bunker shot over the green). It was as if Scheffler, NBC and frankly the entire universe were penalizing me for rashly picking him in a tequila fueled state of irrational confidence. 

Suffice it to say that the majority of this week's analysis will be performed in the cold sober surroundings of my office as people walk by wondering what has me so thoroughly fixated. If they only knew the stakes.   

GOLF ANALYSIS

Last year I picked Wyndham Clark to win this thing and got exactly what I deserved when he inevitably melted down on Friday like a toddler after a long day at Disney World and missed the cut. I quite literally wrote that "I'm going to hate myself on Sunday no matter how this turns out." Little did I know that I would also hate myself on Friday, Saturday and part of Monday.  

Disclaimer: This is where I am compelled by multiple authorities including, but not limited to, HIPAA, the Pythagorean Theorem and Proverbs 19:9 to disclose that players openly bashed in the FGR tend to far exceed expectations in that week's tournament. Also note, however, that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. (I think you've adequately covered yourself).

Scottie Scheffler remains the heavy favorite even after last week's woes and Rory McIlroy comes in at number two despite withdrawing from the Arnold Palmer due to a back injury. So we're essentially going with chalk as Collin Morikawa sits third on the odds chart and for good reason. He's back up to 4th in the world after a recent run of 1st, T7 and 5th against elite fields. He also has a positive(ish) trend going at Sawgrass with a three year record of T13, T45 and a T10 last year. And perhaps most importantly, he was going to be our pick last week before the tequila started whispering schefffffleeerrrr so it feels like the always merciful golf gods (HA!) are giving us a second chance. 

Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim and Sepp Straka got some hard looks. I'd feel pretty good about picking any of those guys to finish top five, especially Fleetwood who has that Sergio Garcia caliber ball-striking game that plays well in Ponte Vedra. Meanwhile, Straka's odds make very little sense for the 9th ranked player in the world and a solid Players track record. Love him at +410 to finish top ten and make take a flyer on the win at +5400 (in fact I just did). 

We're finding an Aaron Rai top twenty very attractive at +305 and Tom Hoge absolutely eye-popping at +720. The guy has two T3's here since 2023 which is when he also shot a course record 62. He's made six straight cuts so, if nothing else, he should be there for your entertainment on Sunday.    

And finally, it appears that the mercurial Bud Cauley is back for another southern run. Last year he kicked off the best stretch of his recent career with a T6 here followed by top fives at the Valspar Championship and Valero Texas Open. Then he went somewhat dormant before a T18 at the Arnold Palmer which made him one stroke better than Scottie Scheffler. I'm about to burn some sage and let it go.  

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Collin Morikawa	+2050
Top 5	Tommy Fleetwood	+445
Top 10	Robert MacIntyre	+360
Top 10	Sepp Straka	+410
Top 20	Tom Hoge	+720
Top 30	Bud Cauley	+270

One and Done Pick: Collin Morikawa

You can run (at least we assume
you can run) but you can't
hide this week Collin.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Tommy Fleetwood 

Sleeper Pick: Bud Cauley

DraftKings Top Ten Values 

Tommy Fleetwood	$10,300
Collin Morikawa	$9,800
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,500
Si Woo Kim	$9,300
Robert MacIntyre	$8,800
Sepp Straka	$7,600
Min Woo Lee	$7,500
Aaron Rai	$7,200
Tom Hoge	$7,000
Bud Cauley	$6,600

We try to reserve the memorial acknowledgements for only the true legends and Catherine O'Hara far exceeded that bar. I frankly find Schitt's Creek unwatchable but that takes nothing away from her iconic roles in Home Alone, the Christopher Guest movies and anywhere else she randomly popped-up to guarantee you a laugh.    

THE COOKIE GOOGLEMAN MEMORIAL

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

Jake Knapp and Corey Conners made honorable mention this week. Shane Lowry would likely be in the starting lineup if we could so much as utter his name without contempt. 

	DK Price	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Scottie Scheffler	$14,200	T20	1st	1st	T55	MC
Rory McIlroy	$11,700	1st	T19	MC	T33	MC
Tommy Fleetwood	$10,300	T14	T35	T27	T22	MC
Collin Morikawa	$9,800	T10	T45	T13	MC	T41
Xander Schauffele	$9,600	72nd	T2	T19	MC	MC
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,500	MC	T6	5th	DNP	MC
Si Woo Kim	$9,300	T38	T6	T27	W/D	T9
Chris Gotterup	$9,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$9,100	MC	T62	T3	T9	MC
Russell Henley	$9,000	T30	MC	T19	T13	MC
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,900	MC	5th	MC	MC	T9
Robert Macintyre	$8,800	9th	MC	DNP	DNP	MC
Ludvig Aberg	$8,700	MC	8th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Shane Lowry	$8,600	T20	T19	T35	T13	8th
Justin Rose	$8,500	MC	MC	T6	MC	DNP
Sam Burns	$8,400	MC	T45	T35	T26	MC
Ben Griffin	$8,300	MC	MC	T35	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$8,200	T12	T68	T19	MC	MC
Cameron Young	$8,100	T61	T54	T51	MC	DNP
Justin Thomas	$8,000	T33	MC	T60	T33	1st
Jacob Bridgeman	$7,900	T50	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$7,800	DNP	T35	T19	MC	T35
Brooks Koepka	$7,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$7,700	59th	MC	T19	MC	T48
Akshay Bhatia	$7,700	T3	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Maverick McNealy	$7,600	MC	T9	T60	T46	MC
Sepp Straka	$7,600	T14	T16	T65	T9	MC
Jake Knapp	$7,600	T12	T45	DNP	DNP	DNP
Min Woo Lee	$7,500	T20	T54	T6	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$7,500	T30	T19	MC	DNP	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$7,500	T33	T19	MC	DNP	DNP
Nicolai Hojgaard	$7,500	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
J.J. Spaun	$7,400	2nd	T64	MC	MC	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$7,400	71st	T68	T13	DNP	MC
Ryan Gerard	$7,400	T42	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
M. Thorbjornsen	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$7,300	W/D	T2	T27	MC	MC
Adam Scott	$7,300	MC	T45	71st	MC	T48
Max Homa	$7,300	MC	T64	T6	T13	MC
Rasmus Hojgaard	$7,300	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$7,200	T20	MC	MC	5th	T29
Alex Noren	$7,200	DNP	T19	MC	T26	MC
Nick Taylor	$7,200	MC	T26	MC	DNP	T48
Aaron Rai	$7,200	T14	T35	T19	DNP	DNP
Marco Penge	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Daniel Berger	$7,100	T20	DNP	DNP	T13	T9
Taylor Pendrith	$7,100	T38	MC	T69	T13	DNP
Corey Conners	$7,100	T6	T13	MC	T26	7th
Ryo Hitsasune	$7,100	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
John Keefer	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$7,000	T52	T9	74th	MC	DNP
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,000	MC	T13	T13	DNP	T41
Keith Mitchell	$7,000	MC	73rd	T35	T13	MC
Tom Hoge	$7,000	T3	T54	T3	T33	T22
Thor Olesen	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Thompson	$6,900	T10	MC	68th	DNP	DNP
Denny McCarthy	$6,900	T14	T35	T13	T60	T55
Brian Harman	$6,900	MC	T2	T44	T63	T3
Harry Hall	$6,900	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matti Schmid	$6,900	MC	T26	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Stevens	$6,900	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tony Finau	$6,800	MC	T45	T19	MC	MC
Lucas Glover	$6,800	T3	MC	T51	MC	T48
Michael Kim	$6,800	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rico Hoey	$6,800	T33	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Nicco Echavarria	$6,800	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Jordan Smith	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Greyserman	$6,700	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
J.T. Poston	$6,700	T33	T45	MC	MC	T22
Patrick Rodgers	$6,700	MC	MC	MC	MC	T65
Matt McCarty	$6,700	T20	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Pierceson Coody	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bud Cauley	$6,600	T6	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mac Meissner	$6,600	T42	DNP	DNP	DNP	T67
Andrew Novak	$6,600	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Aldrich Potgieter	$6,600	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Garrick Higgo	$6,600	DNP	W/D	T44	MC	DNP
Max McGreavey	$6,500	T20	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Alex Smalley	$6,500	T14	MC	T65	DNP	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$6,500	67th	T54	MC	MC	MC
Ryan Fox	$6,500	T20	MC	T27	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$6,500	MC	72nd	T54	MC	MC
Kevin Yu	$6,500	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$6,400	T61	T31	T6	T55	T17
Stephan Jaeger	$6,400	T20	MC	T44	MC	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,400	T42	T26	MC	MC	T48
Taylor Moore	$6,200	T33	T31	T35	MC	DNP
Ricky Castillo	$6,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Joel Dahmen	$6,100	T54	T11	T60	T33	MC

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