The FGR NFL Divisional Round Picks

Last week's middling 3-3 effort was due in no small part to the fact that we picked four road teams who went 1-3. Each pick on its own was defensible but not so much in the aggregate as the Chargers, Steelers and Vikings got smoked by a combined 52 points in a showing of playoff ineptitude that would've made Marty Schottenheimer smile. Onward and upward. 

Kansas City by 8 over Houston: The Pick - Chiefs

You hate to give the 8 points with an enigmatic Chiefs' team that showed little more than a passing interest in covering a spread all season but this feels like the end of the road for a Texans team that's only here thanks to the good graces of a terrible division and the philanthropy of Justin Herbert. Patrick Mahomes will not have the same giving spirit.

Meanwhile, Andy Reid and the Chiefs feel like one of those special forces squads who've been just been sitting around drinking beers, playing cards and talking smack until they get the call to go wreck some shit. In a related story, I've been watching way too much television lately.   

Detroit by 9 over Washington: The Pick - Commanders

This is a backdoor cover waiting to happen. You've got a scrappy underdog team with a high character quarterback coached by a guy who went to Salisbury University (formerly Salisbury State). I can tell you from experience that most people who went to Salisbury live with a chip on their shoulder, forever trying to outrun a terrible decision. God bless 'em.   

Philadelphia by 6 over Los Angeles: The Pick - Eagles 

The Rams were a heartwarming story last week but, unless you're an unknown Italian prize fighter, Philadelphia is where dreams go to die. Just ask the ass hat who decided to harass the female Packers fan last week and then found himself on the wrong side of Dom, lost his job and got banned from Eagles games for life . . . a Herculean level feat previously thought unachievable. I mean at a time when it often feels like there's no bottom, it's almost impressive to see someone plumb the depths by distinguishing himself as the most despicable Eagles fan.

As for the game, I'm starting to think the Eagles are destined to follow a blue collar path through Detroit and onto a match-up with either the Ravens or the Bills. They'll dispense with the light work this weekend. 

Baltimore by 1 over Buffalo: The Pick - Ravens

I truly believe in this pick and that's why I keep telling myself that over and over again despite the constant visions of Lamar Jackson taking seven step drops and lingering in the pocket like a dad stopping to read every plaque on a battlefield tour. Also, I have been told that picking against the Ravens may result in a revocation of certain privileges so this one may lack objectivity.

Can we just identify this in
the gameplan as "Play #1"
. . . for fuck's sake.

With all of that being said, Baltimore should win this game. They are clicking in every phase of the game and just need offensive coordinator Todd Monken not to glitch-out and think he's going to catch the defense off guard with a pass . . . on every fucking play. If you watched closely, you saw him try to do it against the Steelers but I think (and hope) that John Harbaugh has installed a panic button that automatically calls a Derrick Henry running play when necessary. Which is always.  

Overall Record: 3-3

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.

Fantasy Golf: The American Express Preview

A little over twenty years ago I took a job as the in-house attorney at what was then a modest sized construction outfit. My original role consisted mainly of reviewing contracts, chasing money and tolerating lawyer jokes but as the company grew so did the scope of my duties. Then the company grew exponentially and the combination of added personnel along with the inevitable discovery by my coworkers that there was free legal advice to be had down the hall started leading to some pretty entertaining shit. 

Let me pause here for a minute to note that most people who work in construction are fucking nuts. They come in all shapes, sizes and colors but generally share a strong zest for life that I didn't encounter when I was a real lawyer or when I was a retail store manager, bank teller, census taker, delivery driver, telemarketer, . . . you get the picture. I did run into some similarly spirited fellows when I worked in a boatyard but they were just shiftless morons always on the verge of self-destruction. Construction workers actually build shit and do it for like fifty years before keeling over.   

The point of this introductions is that we're going to replace the old Twitter/Bluesky post of the week with the "Work Exchange of the Week." This has the dual benefit of: (1) no longer forcing me to scroll through the increasingly cynical swamp that is social media for the last remnants of humorous content, and (2) giving me an excuse to use a new acronym (the "WEW"). And you know how much I love an acronym. 

What these exchanges almost always have in common is that the person who initiates them never leads with the most relevant information which is fun because you always know it's coming. This week's entry was no different.   

WORK EXCHANGE OF THE WEEK

For the sake of anonymity, the other role will be played by either Bob or Jane because I don't think I work with many of those. And when I refer to another character or group of characters as "they," we're in the same boat as I usually have no fucking idea who "they" are either. You'll see what I mean. 

Bob:   Hey I need to talk to you about this employee who stopped coming to work.

Me:     How long has he been out?

Bob:    A few weeks.

Me:     He just hasn't shown up for a few weeks?

Bob:    Yeah so they told me to give you his last few paychecks.

Me:     Why me?

Bob:    Because they said you'd know what to do with them.

Me:     Why don't we just mail them?

Bob:    Because he's in jail for attempted murder. 

Me:      [Blank stare] 

Bob:     Apparently he's got some anger management issues.

Me:      You don't say.   

GOLF ANALYSIS

At least last week's picks had a pulse which is more than we can say for our first effort of 2025 so we're going to ride that momentum back to the mainland. If you're ever going to take a flyer, this is the place to do it because a quick perusal of the chart below will tell you that there's not much rhyme or reason to this event. Last year the shrewdest picks probably would've been Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im and Tom Kim who finished T52, T25 and MC respectively. Missing on a pick like that just leaves a bad taste in your mouth for the better part of three days like when you let your kids talk you into Chipotle again.

The safe pick and the best value for just about any play is Adam Hadwin. He has been as consistent as anyone in the desert and I can see him having a big year to commemorate his last as a Canadian citizen before it becomes North Montana or East Alaska. 

I am, however, going to dig a little deeper and go with Patrick Fishburn who is coming-off a T6 in Hawaii last week. Many will remember Fishburn as the guy who's name I made fun of while picking cooler named Joe Highsmith who missed the cut. So much for the scientific approach but I'm sticking with Joe as my sleeper this week.

We have adopted a new color scheme for the featured picks in the hopes of latching-on to some of that Ravens magic. If Davis Thompson and Eric Cole don't automatically evoke images of Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry, I don't know what to tell you. 

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Davis Thompson	3500
Top 5	Patrick Fishburn	900
Top 5	Eric Cole	500
Top 10	Adam Hadwin	500
Top 20	Joe Highsmith	350

One final note that will serve as a public service announcement. Every year I get stuck on a player who I expect to have a breakout season. My success rate is about 33% but I'm usually a year too early. This year that player is Max Greyserman. You have been warned.  

One and Done Pick: Patrick Fishburn

I think this is Fishburn but
for all I know it could also be
some random Swedish guy.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Eric Cole

Sleeper Pick: Joe Highsmith 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Sungjae Im	$10,300
Patrick Cantlay	$9,600
Max Greyserman	$9,200
Davis Thompson	$8,900
Nick Dunlap	$8,500
Eric Cole	$8,300
Patrick Fishburn	$8,100
Adam Hadwin	$7,700
Erik Van Rooyan	$7,100
Joe Highsmith	$7,000

For at least one night the vaunted Steelers defense found itself in the company of historically inept deterrents like the levees of New Orleans and the Maginot Line. It was a glorious time to be alive in Baltimore.  

                                   THE STEEL CURTAIN MEMORIAL

                                HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

There's a lot of Sam Burns love this week which I get based on his past success but every time I pick him it ends in disaster. I'll save that disappointment for the Valspar Championship. 

	DK Price	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Xander Schauffele (O)	$11,400	T3	T3	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Thomas	$10,400	T3	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$10,300	T25	T18	T11	T12	T10
Sam Burns	$9,800	T6	T11	DNP	MC	T6
Patrick Cantlay	$9,600	T52	T26	9th	2nd	DNP
Tony Finau	$9,500	T25	T16	T40	4th	T14
Wyndham Clark	$9,400	T39	T50	13th	T54	MC
Tom Kim	$9,300	MC	T6	DNP	MC	DNP
Max Greyserman	$9,200	T56	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$9,100	T25	T22	T11	1st	W/D
Cameron Young	$9,000	DNP	T26	T40	DNP	DNP
Davis Thompson	$8,900	T21	2nd	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harry Halll	$8,800	MC	T41	DNP	T47	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$8,700	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
J.J. Spaun	$8,600	DNP	DNP	T25	MC	MC
Nick Dunlap	$8,500	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Will Zalatoris	$8,400	T34	T36	T6	DNP	DNP
Eric Cole	$8,300	T21	T36	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$8,200	DNP	MC	T3	T8	T21
Patrick Fishburn	$8,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$8,000	MC	MC	T33	T47	MC
Jason Day	$7,900	T34	T18	T49	DNP	DNP
Nico Echavarria	$7,900	T65	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ben Griffin	$7,800	T9	T32	DNP	DNP	DNP
J.T. Poston	$7,800	T11	T6	T25	MC	T37
Tom Hoge	$7,800	T17	T32	2nd	MC	T6
Adam Hadwin	$7,700	T6	T18	T25	T32	DNP
Beau Hossler	$7,700	T47	T50	DNP	MC	MC
Denny McCarthy (O)	$7,700	DNP	T50	T6	MC	T48
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,600	2nd	T11	T40	DNP	DNP
Cam Davis	$7,600	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	T29
Jhonattan Vegas	$7,600	MC	MC	MC	DNP	T55
Sepp Straka	$7,600	DNP	DNP	T49	MC	T4
Daniel Berger	$7,500	T39	DNP	DNP	DNP	T29
Kevin Yu	$7,500	T3	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lee Hodges	$7,500	MC	MC	T3	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$7,500	MC	T54	MC	T21	T10
Andrew Novak	$7,400	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Keith Mitchell	$7,400	T9	T22	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mac Meissner	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mark Hubbard	$7,400	T47	MC	DNP	MC	T43
Billy Horschel	$7,300	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Bud Cauley	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T4
Doug Ghim	$7,300	MC	MC	T59	T5	MC
Jesper Svensson	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Rodgers	$7,300	DNP	MC	T40	MC	T64
Alex Smalley	$7,200	T21	T22	T25	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$7,200	T47	T36	T14	T21	T10
Lucas Glover	$7,200	DNP	MC	T33	MC	MC
M. Thorbjornsen	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Michael Kim	$7,200	T6	MC	DNP	MC	DNP
Chan Kim	$7,100	T14	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Erik Van Rooyen	$7,100	T25	T6	DNP	T56	DNP
Harris English	$7,100	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	T48
Mackenzie Hughes	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Samuel Stevens	$7,100	T65	67th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Svensson	$7,000	DNP	DNP	T49	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$7,000	T47	T3	MC	T16	DNP
Jackson Suber	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Joe Highsmith	$7,000	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rico Hoey	$7,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Schenk	$6,900	MC	MC	MC	T37	T14
Justin Lower	$6,900	T39	T41	MC	DNP	DNP
Matt Kuchar	$6,900	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matthew McCarty	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matti Schmid	$6,900	MC	T6	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max McGreavey	$6,900	DNP	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Victor Perez	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chandler Phillips	$6,800	T25	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Greyson Sigg	$6,800	T17	MC	T25	DNP	DNP
Vince Whaley	$6,800	T34	DNP	T40	MC	T29
Henrik Norlander	$6,800	DNP	DNP	T63	T12	T68
Carson Young	$6,700	T17	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Charley Hoffman	$6,700	MC	MC	DNP	W/D	T61
Emilliano Grillo	$6,700	DNP	MC	T63	T37	DNP
Jacob Bridgeman	$6,700	T39	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lanto Griffin	$6,700	T39	DNP	T3	MC	DNP
Sam Ryder	$6,700	T62	MC	T49	T47	T29
Zach Johnson	$6,700	T25	T41	T14	T62	MC
Ben Silverman	$6,600	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patton Kizzire	$6,600	MC	T11	T22	53rd	MC
Ryo Hisatune	$6,600	T11	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
David Lipsky	$6,500	MC	MC	T14	DNP	DNP
Taylor Montgomery	$6,400	61st	5th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ben Kohles	$6,300	T47	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Chesson Hadley	$6,200	T56	MC	MC	MC	T29
K.H. Lee	$6,200	T25	MC	T63	T32	T21
Davis Riley	$6,000	MC	T65	T59	DNP	DNP

Email the Fantasy Golf Report here.