Fantasy Golf: The U.S. Open Preview

We're getting the preview out early this week because at some point a few months ago, I as a 57 year old perpetually exhausted man, reasoned that "sure, I would love to go to a concert on a Tuesday night in June." I don't know exactly when I became more excited about plans being cancelled than I am about the actual plans themselves but here we are. (Editor's follow-up note below). 

I had an interesting golf match on Sunday and by "interesting" I mean somewhat brutal and excruciating. It was against that guy I can never seem to beat in a single elimination match situation. To protect the identities of the innocent, we don't use real names here but let's just say this guy hails from a South American country and has the icy persona of a villain from the third movie with a new James Bond after he's already dispensed with the Russian and the German in the first two. (You eventually know it's time to change Bonds when they run out of stereotypical foreigners and have to resort to an American bad guy). 

Some recent quality play had lowered my handicap to a 4 and I was getting 3 shots so my one semester as a math major tells me he was playing to a 1. (So in addition to being taller, cooler and better looking than me, this guy is also better at golf). We halved the first three holes with pars and then I birdied the 4th to go one up. He evened it with a birdie on 6 and then I gave him the 7th despite getting my first stroke because, after a good drive, I hit four idiotic shots in a row and made double. I hate getting strokes which is consistent with my general "I don't need anyone's fucking help" attitude which tends to be prosperity averse.  

After a bogey on 8, I had suddenly lost three in a row and was 2 down going into the 9th where I of course was getting another stroke. Two solid shots had me on in two but left me with about a fifty footer which I ran by about ten feet. He of course got up and down from jail so I needed the par putt to avoid wasting another stroke and being two down before I could get some performance enhancing beers at the turn. Let's just say the golf gods were generous . . . in that moment. One down at the turn with a freshly packed cooler. I liked my chances. 

I clawed back to even when he actually made a bogey on the 12th but then he bounced back with birdies on 14 and 15 to go two up. I unceremoniously dumped my last stroke into the creek on 14 so my record on the three holes that I started with a one shot lead was 1-2. Sweet. 

A slightly deflated drive on 16 left me in the right rough facing a back right pin over a bunker. The good thing about being the guy who never wants anyone's fucking help is that you also tend to focus when backed into a corner so that yielded a glorious high cut 8-iron that hit the front of the green and rolled to six feet. I made the putt.

With the honor on the ensuing par 3, I hit a solid 5-iron to the middle of the green and he followed with an almost identical shot that ended-up two feet behind me. He burned the left edge with his putt and I burned the right edge with mine. Still one down going to 18.

Many years ago I stood on the same tee box facing a similar opponent in a similar situation and proceeded to launch a 3-wood into the marsh on the right. This time I piped a driver down the middle setting me up with an eighty yard pitch shot that was right in my wheelhouse. Unfortunately, adrenaline got the better of me and I carried it twenty feet past the pin. The birdie effort was not dramatic and sadly the story ended with my opponent making a shaky two and a half footer for par.

All in all a pretty bittersweet experience. I shot 72 with two bad swings and lost to a 68. Proud of how I played but as of this morning still muttering the occasional "fuuuck" about the 7th hole. In the words of Peter Alliss, sometimes you're the pigeon and sometimes you're the statue. And sometimes it's a very fine line between the two.   

GOLF ANALYSIS

The last time they played at Shinnecock, we got one of the more formidable leaderboards in recent major championship history. Brooks Koepka shot 68 on Sunday to hold-off a crazy charge from Tommy Fleetwood. Dustin Johnson and Patrick Reed were also in the mix. By the time it was over, the top ten looked like this:

Place	Player	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total
1	Brooks Koepka	75	66	72	68	+1
2	Tommy Fleetwood	75	66	78	63	+2
3	Dustin Johnson	69	67	77	70	+3
4	Patrick Reed	73	72	71	68	+4
5	Tony Finau	75	72	66	72	+5
T6	Daniel Berger	76	71	66	73	+6
T6	Tyrrell Hatton	75	70	72	69	+6
T6	Xander Schauffele	72	74	72	68	+6
T6	Henrik Stenson	71	70	74	71	+6
T10	Justin Rose	71	70	73	73	+7
T10	Webb Simpson	76	71	71	69	+7

In 2004 it was Retief Goosen edging-out Phil Mickelson while 1995 had Corey Pavin over Greg Norman and Tom Lehman but the 1986 leaderboard might top all of them with Raymond Floyd leading a top ten that included Lanny Wadkins (T2), Hal Sutton (T4), Lee Trevino (T4), Ben Crenshaw (T6), Payne Stewart (T6), Bernhard Langer (T8) and some guy named Nicklaus (T8). Suffice it to say, Shinnecock does not disappoint and there's no reason to expect this year will be any different.

It should be quite the ball-striking spectacle and we are picking accordingly. I get that golf odds shift slower than the tides but it's hard to understand how Cameron Young isn't on the same level as the favorites after his performance at Bethpage and his subsequent run of success. Not to mention, the continuation of New York's run through the month of June.

If you're looking for an alternative to Young and the big two (we'll get to them), here's a fun fact. Xander Schauffele has played the U.S. Open nine times and finished in the top ten seven of them with his only two misses being a T12 last year and a T14 in 2022. He's been flying under the radar a bit lately not unlike early 2024 before he went on a tear and picked-up a Wannamaker Trophy and the Claret Jug. I picked him at the PGA Championship that year and it turned my whole life around or at least my Sunday afternoon.  

The compelling story is Scottie Scheffler going for the career grand slam and it's well within the realm of possibility despite his recent "slump" which has consisted of three runner-ups followed by T14 - 3rd - T12 (nice slump). Maybe as compelling and even more likely, however, is that Rory McIlroy picks-up his seventh major which would move him out of a tie with Phil Mickelson and into a tie with Arnold Palmer. For those of us relishing the implosion of LIV, that would make for a joyous Father's Day. 

As noted above, it's ball-strikers galore through the rest of the list featuring Brooks Koepka, Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland and even Tom Kim who's found some form of late and always gets up for the U.S. Open no matter how much he's struggling everywhere else. I'm struggling to find an analogy for me at my job lately. Maybe when someone brings donuts.   

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Cameron Young	+1900
Top 5	Brooks Koepka	+580
Top 10	Tyrrell Hatton	+345
Top 10	Viktor Hovland	+435
Top 20	Tom Kim	+375

One and Done Pick: Xander Schauffele

You're our last hope for 2026
Xander. No pressure.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Cameron Young 

Sleeper Pick: Adam Scott 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Cameron Young	$10,500
Xander Schauffele	$10,100
Brooks Koepka	$9,400
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,900
Tyrell Hatton	$8,700
Viktor Hovland	$8,100
Patrick Cantlay	$7,300
Robert MacIntyre	$7,000
Adam Scott	$6,600
Tom Kim	$6,200

Editor's note: I actually enjoyed the concert. It helped that the Black Crowes absolutely brought it proving that they may indeed be the last great American rock and roll band. Two lead guitarists and a drummer who hammers the skins with Moon and Bonham like intensity? I'm in.

THE HARD TO HANDLE

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns and Russell Henley all present compelling cases but I really don't care much for the first two as people and every time I pick Henley it ends in disappointment much like every time I order anything but steak and a Caesar salad at a restaurant. "How's your chicken piccata Ron?" . . . "fine." 

	DK Price	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Scottie Scheffler	$14,900	T7	T41	3rd	T2	T7
Rory McIlroy	$12,200	T19	2nd	2nd	T5	T7
Jon Rahm	$11,500	T7	DNP	T10	T12	1st
Bryson DeChambeau	$11,000	MC	1st	T20	T56	T26
Cameron Young	$10,500	T4	T67	T32	MC	MC
Xander Schauffele	$10,100	T12	T7	T10	T14	T7
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,700	MC	T16	T5	MC	T50
Brooks Koepka	$9,400	T12	T26	T17	55th	T4
Ludvig Aberg	$9,200	MC	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,900	T38	T64	T17	1st	T55
Tyrell Hatton	$8,700	T4	T26	T27	T56	MC
Collin Morikawa	$8,500	T23	T14	T14	T5	T4
Justin Rose	$8,400	MC	MC	MC	T37	MC
Justin Thomas	$8,300	MC	MC	MC	T37	T19
Chris Gotterup	$8,200	T23	DNP	DNP	T43	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$8,100	3rd	MC	19th	MC	W/D
Russell Henley	$8,000	T10	T7	T14	MC	T13
Patrick Reed	$7,900	T23	DNP	T56	T49	T19
Wyndham Clark	$7,800	MC	T56	1st	MC	MC
Sam Burns	$7,700	T7	T9	T32	T27	MC
Hideki Matsuyama	$7,600	T42	6th	T32	4th	T26
J.J. Spaun	$7,500	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Joaquin Niemann	$7,400	MC	DNP	T32	T47	T31
Patrick Cantlay	$7,300	MC	T3	T14	T14	T15
Si Woo Kim	$7,200	T42	T32	T39	MC	T40
Shane Lowry	$7,100	MC	T19	T20	MC	T65
Jordan Spieth	$7,100	T23	T41	MC	T37	T19
Ben Griffin	$7,000	T10	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Robert MacIntyre	$7,000	2nd	MC	DNP	DNP	T35
Sepp Straka	$7,000	MC	T56	MC	MC	DNP
Cameron Smith	$6,900	MC	T32	4th	MC	MC
Min Woo Lee	$6,900	MC	T21	T5	T27	DNP
Kristoffer Reitan	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Maverick McNealy	$6,800	37th	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Aaron Rai	$6,800	T33	T19	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jake Knapp	$6,800	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Alex Smalley	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$6,700	T23	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$6,700	T59	T41	T8	T61	3rd
Bud Cauley	$6,700	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$6,700	DNP	MC	T5	DNP	DNP
Nicolai Hojgaard	$6,700	T46	T50	DNP	DNP	DNP
Akshay Bhatia	$6,600	MC	T16	DNP	DNP	T57
Adam Scott	$6,600	T12	T32	MC	T14	T35
Gary Woodland	$6,600	MC	MC	T49	T10	T50
Ryan Gerard	$6,600	T50	DNP	T56	MC	DNP
Alex Fitzpatrick	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Corey Conners	$6,500	W/D	T9	MC	MC	MC
Daniel Berger	$6,500	T46	T21	DNP	MC	T7
Kurt Kitayama	$6,500	DNP	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Jacob Bridgeman	$6,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
David Puig	$6,500	DNP	55th	T39	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$6,400	T33	T32	MC	T7	DNP
Sungjae Im	$6,400	T57	MC	MC	MC	T35
Sahith Theegala	$6,400	DNP	T32	T27	DNP	MC
Alex Noren	$6,400	DNP	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Carlos Ortiz	$6,400	T4	DNP	MC	DNP	MC
Dustin Johnson	$6,300	MC	MC	T10	T24	T19
J.T. Poston	$6,300	T33	T32	MC	DNP	T40
Nick Taylor	$6,300	T23	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Ryan Fox	$6,300	T19	T56	T43	MC	DNP
Lucas Herbert	$6,300	DNP	DNP	MC	MC	DNP
Tom Kim	$6,200	T33	T26	T8	23rd	DNP
Brian Harman	$6,200	T59	T21	T43	T43	T19
Davis Thompson	$6,200	MC	T9	MC	DNP	DNP
Sam Stevens	$6,200	T23	DNP	T43	T49	DNP
Keith Mitchell	$6,200	DNP	DNP	T20	DNP	DNP
Harry Hall	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Max Greyserman	$6,100	T23	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP
Andrew Novak	$6,100	T42	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Ryo Hisatsune	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,000	T12	T26	MC	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$5,900	DNP	T41	T43	MC	MC
Patrick Rodgers	$5,900	DNP	DNP	T32	T31	T31
Andrew Putnam	$5,900	DNP	DNP	T43	T31	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$5,800	T19	T41	MC	DNP	DNP

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