Fantasy Golf: The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Preview

FAIRBANKS, ALASKA - As we enter the middle of our third week buried under two feet of ice, the situation appears to be growing desperate. In the span of three days, two of my coworkers snapped and expressed their frustrations by (a) ramming a few cars on the way out of the parking lot, and (b) taking a forklift for a high-speed joyride . . . in the warehouse. On a lighter note, we also had a guy alter the name of every piece of equipment rented from "Xtra Deck" to something more graphic proving that you should always run the name of your company past a group of 9th graders before trademarking it.

I jest but this shit is real. Literally as I was writing that first paragraph, I got a text that two more of our guys decided to exchange physical pleasantries. Construction sites are turning into the Double Deuce. Apparently the weather and Bad Bunny pushed a lot of people over the edge which is interesting considering no one seemed to have much problem with the endless stream of Super Bowl commercials about (1) injecting yourself with a barely tested weight-loss drug, (2) how AI is going to take your job and (3) the cool way creating a self-installed surveillance network in your neighborhood will be an amazing tool for people who want to "help you find a dog." Interesting choice considering what we tell our kids about guys who ask them to help find a dog. 

It's almost as if the halftime show controversy was ginned up as a distraction. Hey, wait a minute . . .  

GOLF ANALYSIS

Well the Hideki Matsuyama drama evolved into quite the three act situation with the first being my botched pick at the Farmers as described last week. The second act was my weekend of torture as he appeared to be cruising to victory after I didn't pick him again . . . this time on purpose. And finally we had his late Sunday collapse which offered a brief ray of hope that there is a god. (Clearly I'm feeling a little extra this week as the kids like to say). 

The overall picks were solid but really defined by Cam Young muddling his way to a T41 and the fact that I recommended the wrong Hojgaard. That will not be a problem this week as the field is currently Hojgaardless, however, they are both alternates so could find their way in and we all know how invasive those Hojgaards can be.  

We were again faced with a triumvirate of viable candidates for this one with Viktor Hovland, Justin Rose and Jason Day all fitting the profile of guys who fit here while not quite being worth saving for The Players or a major. All three have solid if not spectacular track records on the peninsula and come in playing really well. The logical pick would be Rose who has climbed to #3 in the world after his recent win but he feels too obvious. Day gets the nod over Hovland based on the absurd run he had here from 2015 to 2021 when he went T4, T11, T5, T2, T4, 4th and T7. Add in the fact that he's in solid form now and he's our guy.

The rest of the picks are the usual suspects as this event tends to feature a lot of familiar names at the top of the leaderboard. Sepp Straka and Tom Hoge look particularly appealing in a limited golf wagering kind of way (we kid because we love). I've been burned on some long-shot recommendations lately but Hoge at +405 to finish top 20 is very enticing. Put your best clients on it.    

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Tommy Fleetwood	+2800
Top 5	Viktor Hovland	+455
Top 10	Sepp Straka	+390
Top 10	Jason Day	+305
Top 20	Tom Hoge	+405

One and Done Pick: Jason Day

Yes I am painfully aware of the perils
that come with this pick from my own
past experience but I just can't quit him.

Other Guy I’d Pick: Viktor Hovland

Sleeper Pick: Tom Hoge

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Tommy Fleetwood	$10,200
Viktor Hovland	$9,900
Justin Rose	$9,400
Patrick Cantlay	$8,900
Jason Day	$8,500
Shane Lowry	$7,900
Sepp Straka	$7,700
Akshay Bhatia	$7,300
Sam Stevens	$7,000
Tom Hoge	$6,500

This week's Historical Performance Chart honors my "Qué Emoción!" moment during the Super Bowl halftime show. If you know you know.  

THE LIVIN' LA VIDA LOCA

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

Not featured above but worth noting are Ludvig Aberg and Sam Burns - two Ryder Cuppers with proven success at Pebble who are stuck in mini-slumps. This is the kind of semi-soft tournament that can put an end to those.  

	DK Price	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Scottie Scheffler	$14,000	T9	T6	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rory McIlroy	$11,500	1st	T66	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tommy Fleetwood	$10,200	T22	T31	DNP	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$9,900	T22	T58	T13	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$9,800	12th	T14	DNP	DNP	MC
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,600	T48	T71	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$9,400	T3	T11	1st	62nd	DNP
Russell Henley	$9,200	T5	T58	DNP	DNP	DNP
Xander Schauffele	$9,100	DNP	T54	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chris Gotterup	$9,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$8,900	T33	T11	DNP	T4	T3
Maverick McNealy	$8,800	T40	T39	W/D	T33	2nd
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,700	T48	T58	MC	T6	DNP
M.Thorbjornsen	$8,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$8,500	T13	T6	DNP	T24	T7
Ben Griffin	$8,400	T69	T58	MC	DNP	DNP
Ludvig Aberg	$8,300	W/D	2nd	DNP	DNP	DNP
Robert Macintryre	$8,200	T40	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Young	$8,100	72nd	70th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Burns	$8,000	T22	10th	DNP	DNP	T39
Shane Lowry	$7,900	2nd	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jake Knapp	$7,900	T33	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Collin Morikawa	$7,800	T17	T14	DNP	DNP	DNP
J.J. Spaun	$7,800	T33	T54	DNP	T16	MC
Sepp Straka	$7,700	T7	T26	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$7,700	T73	76th	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$7,600	T53	T47	DNP	DNP	MC
Pierceson Coody	$7,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$7,500	T65	T11	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harry Hall	$7,500	T58	DNP	T34	DNP	DNP
Taylor Pendrith	$7,400	T9	DNP	T7	T49	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$7,400	T69	T39	T63	2nd	T3
Nick Taylor	$7,400	T33	T71	T20	T14	T39
Sahith Theegala	$7,300	T53	T20	DNP	T65	DNP
Akshay Bhatia	$7,300	T22	DNP	DNP	DNP	T30
Kurt Kitayama	$7,300	DNP	T39	T29	MC	DNP
J.T. Poston	$7,200	T53	T20	DNP	DNP	DNP
Min Woo Lee	$7,200	T17	DNP	DNP	MC	MC
Keith Mitchell	$7,200	T33	T54	T4	T12	MC
Wyndham Clark	$7,100	T73	1st	DNP	MC	DNP
Aaron Rai	$7,100	T40	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Alex Noren	$7,100	DNP	T26	DNP	DNP	MC
Corey Conners	$7,000	T65	T31	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Stevens	$7,000	T17	DNP	T34	DNP	DNP
Garrick Higgo	$7,000	DNP	DNP	T20	DNP	DNP
Andrew Novak	$6,900	T13	DNP	T20	MC	DNP
Matt McCarty	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jacob Bridgeman	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Greyserman	$6,800	W/D	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Denny McCarthy	$6,800	T58	T26	T4	T12	MC
Ryo Hisatune	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Stephan Jaeger	$6,700	T40	T71	DNP	MC	DNP
Rico Hoey	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	T39
Marco Penge	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Rodgers	$6,600	T22	79th	DNP	MC	MC
Alex Smalley	$6,600	DNP	75th	T65	MC	DNP
Michael Kim	$6,600	DNP	DNP	T11	DNP	MC
Tony Finau	$6,500	T13	T47	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$6,500	T17	T6	T48	1st	12th
Max McGreavy	$6,500	DNP	DNP	MC	MC	DNP
Kevin Yu	$6,400	64th	T58	T7	DNP	DNP
Ryan Fox	$6,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sami Valimaki	$6,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,300	T40	T71	DNP	T16	DNP
Lucas Glover	$6,300	T3	T58	MC	MC	DNP
Bud Cauley	$6,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$6,200	T53	T54	DNP	MC	T39
Nico Echavarria	$6,200	77th	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,200	T62	T26	DNP	MC	T16
Emiliano Grillo	$6,200	DNP	T14	DNP	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$6,100	T9	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,100	T40	DNP	DNP	DNP	T50
Aldrich Potgieter	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matti Schmid	$6,100	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Steven Fisk	$6,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Schenk	$6,000	DNP	T47	DNP	DNP	MC
Joe Highsmith	$6,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brian Campbell	$6,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP

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