Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Fantasy Golf: The WGC-Workday Championship Preview

This is going to be a bit of a light preview which is really kind of pathetic considering I had all weekend to work on it while accomplishing little more (a) than playing nine holes in a simulator (and losing), (b) watching the Pete Davidson movie (solid if not spectacular except for Bill Burr's moustache) and (c) getting two new tires for my car. 

It's not even like I put the tires on myself . . . an idea even more preposterous than me say building a treehouse or welding whatever it is that people weld. I am not what you would call "handy" and never have been. I remember watching The A-Team as a kid and in every single episode they would weld things like the parts of an old hibachi together to make a helicopter or a tank and I distinctly remember feeling a sense of awe and thinking to myself "you will never be able to do that."    

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I resisted the urge to include a Ted Cruz tweet here because no one needs more Ted Cruz in their life and besides, Max Homa's win was good for America. So let's celebrate the shot that won it for him with a picture of a coked-up Chevy Chase from his most underrated performance. 

GOLF ANALYSIS (SORT OF) 

I love it when they play a new course because we're all guessing blindly as opposed to just guessing wildly. With no really strong feeling about any player this week, I'm going with Viktor Hovland who has been playing great and is still the guy from this current youth movement who I think is going to have the best career. The fact that he is paired with Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau on Thursday and Friday gave me serious pause because that sounds more like the sentence you would get for committing a realtively serious misdemeanor but, if anyone can handle it, it's the perpetually upbeat Hovland. 

Most of the rest of this week's picks are based on the theory that guys who generally play well in Florida will play well this week because the course they are playing is located in Florida. I did some casual research and most of the players on the list below have won in Florida plus Billy Horschel lives there across the lake from my friend's mother in-law's house (and yes I stared at it the one time I was there going "I wonder what Billy is doing right now"). I hope that helps. Good luck.

That smile will surely be tested
on Thursday and Friday.
One and Done Pick: Viktor Hovland

Other Guy I'd Pick: Tyrrell Hatton 

Sleeper Pick: Billy Horschel 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy

$10,400

Tyrrell Hatton

$9,600

Viktor Hovland

$9,400

Sungjae Im

$8,800

Matt Fitzpatrick

$8,500

Adam Scott

$8,200

Justin Rose

$7,700

Marc Leishman

$7,400

Billy Horschel

$7,000

Bernd Wiesberger

$6,700


Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Fantasy Golf: The Genesis Invitational Preview

Last week held such promise heading into Sunday. I had recommended to my dedicated readers and taken a personal vested interest in Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Max Homa and Maverick McNealy, all of whom were positioned to win. In supporting roles I even had Matthew NeSmith, Nick Taylor and Brian Gay doing their part. I was ready to unleash the perfect storm of success, a truly rare occurrence for the FGR.

Alas, it was not meant to be as the guy I picked the prior week bounced back to win this week. I'm probably lowballing this number but I think that's at least the 573rd time a player I picked has missed the cut only to win the following week after I have pronounced him dead to me. I will learn nothing from this.

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I freely acknowledge that Tom Brady is the GOAT among quarterbacks but the inimitable David Simon is correct in his assessment of the golden boy and where he fits into the grand scheme of athleticism. 


GOLF ANALYSIS FROM THE FEBRUARY ABYSS 

We have every top ten ranked player in the field this week except for Webb Simpson and Tyrrell Hatton. Plus we have Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth who appears to be entering one of those enigmatic phases that great golfers go through on their way to becoming either (a) 2014 Rory McIlroy (good) or (b) 1994 Ian Baker-Finch* (bad . . . very bad). I see this week as a middling pause on that journey so I am staying away.  

In addition to the loaded field, we've got a slew of guys who play great here all the time including Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Adam Scott and Rory. Then you've got Bubba Watson who's won this thing three times along with guys like Marc Leishman and Kevin Na who have multiple top fives. It's a damn embarrassment of riches is what it is.

But we get paid to make the tough choices so we're taking Rory over D.J. and J.T. He hasn't won on American soil since the 2019 Tour Championship so he is beyond due. Xander Schauffele gets the nod over Koepka and Patrick Cantlay because he has been ridiculous in 2021 with a pair of runner-ups and a tie for 5th. For the sake of full disclosure, I have to say that I usually pick Xander in the wrong spot so I might change my pick to Cantlay at the last minute and not even tell myself. 

You pretty much have to pick Bubba here. I was going to qualify that with an "unless" but who knows what impacts Bubba's performance so just pick him. Max Homa, Kevin Na and Carlos Ortiz are solid mid-range picks but Jason Kokrak is also worth a look. Sam Burns is Sam Burns. 

Finally, I am convinced that both Talor Gooch and Doug Ghim are on the verge of breaking through. I'd tell you why but I'm up against the clock for my acupuncture appointment and, if I go in there with this unfinished preview hanging over me, she's going to drive an icepick straight into my forehead. No one wants that. Well maybe a few people.     

One and Done Pick: Xander Schauffele 
To Schauffele or not to Schauffele?
That is always the damn question.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Rory McIlroy

Sleeper Pick: Doug Ghim

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy

$10,500

Xander Schauffele

$9,900

Adam Scott

$9,000

Bubba Watson

$8,900

Max Homa

$8,200

Kevin Na

$7,900

Carlos Ortiz

$7,800

Sam Burns

$7,400

Talor Gooch

$7,200

Doug Ghim

$6,900


This week's Historical Performance Chart honors what has to be the most cringeworthy advertising campaign since Bloomingdale's ran one in 2015 with a picture of a stalker in a nice suit staring at a woman with the tag line "Spike Your Best Friend's Eggnog When They're not Looking." Mike Meyers and Dana Carvey don't quite achieve that level of creepiness in their painful shilling for Uber Eats, but it sure as hell ain't for a lack of trying. 

It's hard to ignore Sung Kang's impressive record at the bottom of this chart but I have managed to do it. Remember, I just make suggestions and you make decisions (oh dear God he's quoting Peloton instructors now . . . well it was fun while it lasted).       
 
                                    THE WAYNE'S WORLD . . . PARTY TIME
                                        SHAMELESSLY . . . SELLING-OUT
                                     HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

 

DK Price

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Dustin Johnson

$11,300

T10

T9

T16

1st

4th

Justin Thomas

$10,700

MC

2nd

T9

T39

T54

Rory McIlroy

$10,500

T5

T4

T20

DNP

DNP

Jon Rahm

$10,400

T17

T9

DNP

DNP

DNP

Bryson DeChambeau

$10,100

T5

T15

T41

W/D

DNP

Xander Schauffele

$9,900

T23

T15

T9

DNP

DNP

Brooks Koepka

$9,700

T43

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,600

T17

T15

T4

DNP

DNP

Colin Morikawa

$9,500

T26

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Daniel Berger (Out)

$9,400

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

MC

Tony Finau

$9,300

T51

T15

T2

MC

MC

Jordan Spieth

$9,200

T59

T51

T9

T22

MC

Hideki Matsuyama

$9,100

T5

T9

DNP

MC

T11

Adam Scott

$9,000

1st

T7

T53

T11

T2

Bubba Watson

$8,900

MC

T15

1st

W/D

1st

Joaquin Niemann

$8,800

MC

T44

DNP

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$8,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Marc Leishman

$8,600

T43

T4

MC

MC

T5

Scottie Scheffler

$8,500

T30

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Cameron Smith

$8,400

MC

T49

T6

T28

T63

Will Zalatoris

$8,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Max Homa

$8,200

T5

T37

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matthew Wolff

$8,100

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jason Kokrak

$8,000

MC

T37

T20

T22

T2

Abraham Ancer

$7,900

T43

T44

T68

DNP

DNP

Kevin Na

$7,900

MC

T33

T2

T4

MC

Carlos Ortiz

$7,800

T26

T9

DNP

DNP

T26

Russell Henley

$7,800

T17

T44

DNP

DNP

 

Sergio Garcia

$7,700

T37

T37

DNP

T49

MC

Si Woo Kim

$7,700

T37

3rd

MC

MC

MC

Cameron Tringale

$7,600

T30

DNP

MC

T8

T68

Francesco Molinari

$7,600

MC

DNP

MC

MC

T52

Gary Woodland

$7,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

T26

Matthew Fitzpatrick

$7,600

T30

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Davis

$7,500

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Corey Connors

$7,500

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

James Hahn

$7,500

T13

DNP

T14

T28

MC

Rickie Fowler

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brian Harman

$7,400

T47

T51

DNP

MC

T72

Henrik Norlander

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Streelman

$7,400

DNP

MC

T41

MC

DNP

Lanto Griffin

$7,400

T37

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Burns

$7,400

T23

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Hadwin

$7,300

T26

75th

T6

T34

T16

Charley Hoffman

$7,300

MC

MC

T41

T4

T63

J.T. Poston

$7,300

T30

T28

DNP

T17

DNP

Luke List

$7,300

T30

T15

T26

MC

DNP

Maverick McNealy

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Emiliano Grillo

$7,200

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Keegan Bradley

$7,200

MC

T51

MC

T34

MC

Matt Kuchar

$7,200

T2

T28

T26

T22

T8

Nate Lashley

$7,200

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Talor Gooch

$7,200

T10

DNP

T20

DNP

DNP

Brendan Steele

$7,100

DNP

MC

T49

T39

T39

Brendon Todd

$7,100

T56

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

K.H. Lee

$7,100

T13

T25

DNP

DNP

DNP

Russell Knox

$7,100

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Wyndham Clark

$7,100

T17

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Alex Noren

$7,000

T59

DNP

T16

DNP

DNP

Chez Reavie

$7,000

T10

MC

T73

MC

7th

Kyle Stanley

$7,000

T64

MC

MC

T39

DNP

Matt Jones

$7,000

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Cameron Champ

$6,900

MC

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Doug Ghim

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Joel Dahmen

$6,900

T5

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Matthew NeSmith

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nick Taylor

$6,900

MC

T33

T41

T55

DNP

Charles Howell, III

$6,800

T59

6th

T37

T15

75th

Martin Laird

$6,800

T43

MC

T9

T8

T11

Tom Hoge

$6,800

DNP

MC

T53

DNP

DNP

Branden Grace

$6,700

MC

MC

T37

T22

DNP

Harold Varner, III

$6,700

T13

MC

T60

MC

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$6,700

T30

T15

T26

T22

MC

Vaughn Taylor

$6,700

T13

T9

T20

W/D

MC

Charl Schwartzel

$6,500

DNP

W/D

T68

MC

T45

J.B. Holmes

$6,500

T51

1st

T60

T34

T11

Sung Kang

$6,500

T2

T64

T16

T22

T8

Footnote

* I know that Baker-Finch was never the player that Spieth was (and still could be) but he is the best I could come up with so put your fucking hand down. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report . . . fgr@fantasygolfreport.com