Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Fantasy Golf: The Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview

I went to an Orioles game last night and thoroughly enjoyed every minute of it despite my predisposition to hate everything I do on a Monday. I know. I can't believe it either but, if you haven't been paying attention, the O's are one of the best 2022 stories in baseball if not all of sports. And I say that without a hint of my usual hyperbole. They don't need it.

The win on Monday raised their record to 48-48. Big effing deal right? Well yeah. They recently had a ten game winning streak and have now won 13 of their last 17. The 2022 win total of 48 eclipses the entire 2018 season and currently has them on pace for 81 which is crazy considering they averaged 51 wins over the last three full seasons. To say the fan base had fallen into a desultory state wouldn't begin to tell the story. 

By way of example, a few years ago someone broke into my car and stole all of the change from my ashtray but left an envelope on the passenger seat with the words "ORIOLES TICKETS" in giant block letters. As recently as May, you couldn't trade two seats behind homeplate for six feet of CVS coupons. Now I've got my fifteen year old daughter submitting a formal request for a TV subscription change so she can watch the games. (Vegas likes her chances).

Why does this matter? Well, thanks to the fact that they play almost everyday for six straight months, baseball teams are able to completely change the mood of a city. And Baltimore desperately needed a boost after the riots, a comically criminal mayor and the installation of speed cameras on the JFX. (Come on man. Some of us got places to go). 

The mood around here is downright ebullient these days. Lots of lively banter about things people actually enjoy talking about. Parents posting pictures of themselves with their kids at baseball games instead of lacrosse tournaments. Seagulls and rats living together. It's like we've rediscovered the America of our youth. I even caught myself shopping for a used Camaro the other day.    

TWEET OF THE WEEK

In honor of the facts that (1) sharks are apparently cruising the east coast beaches with the brazenness of a high school lacrosse team on a Red Bull bender, and (2) my preferred death wish is swimming beyond the break . . . 


GOLF ANALYSIS

Last week's off the cuff picks were actually pretty strong as they featured the winner (Tony Finau), a runner-up (Emiliano Grillo) and seven other players who made the cut. Of course I pinned my hopes for a profitable week on Brendan Steele making the cut and I can tell you from multiple experiences, he is not the guy you want on the bubble with the clock winding down on Friday. Suffice it to say that he shot 39 on the back and missed the cut by 4. I'm on to Detroit.  

It's time for Will Zalatoris or Cameron Young to win a damn golf tournament. Between the two of them, they've got a dozen top five finishes since October and four of those have been at majors. Sooner or later one of them is just going to ball strike the shit out of a tournament and win by five. A golf course that has been recently dominated by the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Matthew Wolff and Joaquin Niemann would be a logical place for that to occur. 

(It's worth noting that the last time Young followed-up a missed cut with a top three like he just did at St. Andrews was at the RBC Heritage where he finished T3 and then he went T2 at the Wells Fargo and T3 at the PGA Championship. We like to call that "streaky" in our business).

Kevin Kisner clearly loves this golf course as evidenced by his T8 last year and 3rd place finish in 2020 so he was an obvious pick. As were Maverick McNealy and Webb Simpson who have recently dropped into the undervalued zone. 

We are all aboard the Joohyung Kim bandwagon until the wheels fall-off (big bandwagon week for the FGR). Troy Merritt barely makes the cut under the Kevin Kisner theory even though I really wanted to go double old school and give his spot to Harris English alongside Rickie Fowler. Rickie gets the nod based on the fact that he's hungrier. At least he damn well better be. 

The battle for sleeper was pretty intense. On one side we had a former Masters champion who finished 7th last week and T4 here two years ago. On the other hand we had a guy named "Hank". Ultimately the Masters champ got the nod but it was close because I mean, "Hank".

One and Done Pick: Cameron Young
The MLB sponsorship 
was the clincher.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Will Zalatoris 

Sleeper Pick: Danny Willett

DraftKings Top Ten Values 


Will Zalatoris

$10,400

Cameron Young

$10,100

Kevin Kisner

$9,100

Maverick McNealy

$8,800

Webb Simpson

$8,300

Joohyung Kim

$7,600

Troy Merritt

$7,600

Rickie Fowler

$7,300

Danny Willett

$7,100

Hank Lebioda

$7,100

 
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Fantasy Golf: The 3M Open Preview

Sometime a little before noon on July 19, 2009, I bid my family farewell on the beach at 137th Street in Ocean City, Maryland and adjourned to the solitude of my in-law's condominium to watch the final round of the British Open. A highly improbable story was developing with 59 year old Tom Watson leading by one shot after three rounds and, as he made the turn on Sunday, he was only one shot behind emerging folding chair and Saudi Golf mouthpiece Lee Westwood.

As the back nine unfolded, the impossible suddenly started becoming probable. Westwood bogeyed three of his last four holes foreshadowing his major career and Watson just kept hanging around the top of the leaderboard. As he played the 17th, we had all traded reluctant optimism for full-blown hope. And then he made birdie to take a one shot lead to the final hole. I can still remember the "this is going to make the whole world a better place if he wins" feeling I had like it was yesterday. 

Anyone who watched it live will never forget his next five shots. A hybrid off the tee that was absolutely smoked down the middle followed by an adrenaline juiced 8-iron that hit just short of the pin and barely rolled over the back. Normally that would be no problem for a guy who'd won five Claret Jugs . . . if he wasn't 59. Alas, the adrenaline got him again and he putted it 8 feet past the hole into disaster territory for a player who had shown enough yips during regular tour events that we knew what would happened next. And it did. He tapped-in for a bogey that would send him to a four-hole playoff against Stewart Cink. 

Watson would predictably run-out of gas in the four-hole playoff, ultimately losing by 6 shots. I walked back out to the beach and someone asked me what happened. I'm pretty sure my response was "I don't want to talk about it" as I walked straight into the ocean with thoughts of never turning back. Last Sunday didn't reach that level but it sure as hell was reminiscent. Good times. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK*

After Sunday, I think it is no longer hyperbole to suggest that Paul Azinger is one of the worst announcers in all of sports. Maybe it's hard for his employers to recognize considering the marginal talent** with which he is surrounded but good god he takes Dan Dierdorfian stating of the obvious to never before seen levels. When 50% of your verbal meandering focuses on the facts that (a) Rory is a good driver, and (b) Cam is a good putter, it feels like your style may be a lacking a bit of nuance and originality. And here's another gem from Saturday that I didn't even catch.


GOLF ANALYSIS

Look. I'm not going to waste your time and, more importantly, my time by acting like I have any idea who is going to play well this week. The previous winners of this event on this course have been Cameron Champ, Michael Thompson and Matthew Wolff, three guys with less in common than me, Tim Tebow and a taxidermist (I don't like dead things). I've made some educated suggestions below but proceed at your own peril. 

This week is so crazy that renowned chalk enthusiast Rob Bolton over at the PGATour.com Power Rankings has the favorite Tony Finau ranked 6th behind the likes of Davis Riley, Cam Davis and his overall #1, Adam Svensson who's 6th place finish at the Barbasol Championship was his first top ten since February. That's putting a lot of stock in a tournament won by Trey Mullinax but I like that Rob is finally letting his hair down. Next thing you know he's going to buy a Chrysler Sebring and start going by "Bobby."     

Anyway, I'm picking Adam Hadwin but, by the time I finish this second glass of box caliber wine, I may shift over to Nick Hardy who I'm convinced is the next first-time winner laying in wait. I am also intrigued by Joohynung Kim who has climbed to 40th in the world after a 3rd place finish at the Scottish Open. More importantly, he finished 23rd at the U.S. Open and T17 at the Byron Nelson so he's proven himself in the states. Bobby has him ranked 12th, just behind the magnetic duo of Chez Reavie and Cameron Tringale. 

One and Done Pick: Adam Hadwin
"The winner gets a Sebring and 
the feeling that they're making 
a difference in the world."


Other Guy I'd Pick: Nick Hardy

Sleeper Pick: Michael Gligic

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Tony Finau

$10,500

Adam Hadwin

$9,600

Maverick McNealy

$9,300

Adam Long

$8,600

Brendan Steele

$8,300

Nick Hardy

$8,000

Rickie Fowler

$7,700

Emiliano Grillo

$7,600

Joohynung Kim

$7,300

Michael Gligic

$7,000


Footnote

* I try to maintain a golf theme for the Tweet of the Week to keep up appearances but I would be remiss if I didn't include Andy Towers' epic PLL locker room speech. I can say with 90% certainty that it is fact based and with 100% certainty that his neighbor's dog never shat on this lawn again.

 ** While we're here, someone please tell Peter Jacobsen that there is no lazier form of golf commentary than "I think __________ will definitely be hoisting the Claret Jug in the future" and he said it of Viktor Hovland twice in the space of about half an hour on Saturday. Unless you were once so prescient that you said that about Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton, shut-up. You have no idea who's going to win the next twenty British Opens you dolt.

Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Fantasy Golf: The British Open Preview

If this website does anything somewhat consistently well, it's the British Open. Whether it's shredding a Golf Digest list of "11 Sneaky British Open Picks" or a celebration of Darren Clarke's 2011 victory, this tournament brings-out the best in the FGR which shouldn't really come as a surprise. As I wrote in that 2011 post:

The British Open is like Mad Men set on a golf course. It seems like everyone 
including the kids in the gallery are smoking cigarettes, the announcers make 
a drinking reference every fifteen minutes and the winner essentially declares 
during his acceptance speech that he’s going to get pissed drunk that night. It’s 
the cool major.

Then I added a classic picture of Don Draper and Roger Sterling with a hilarious caption. It was a whole thing. You should really check it out.

This year we have the gift of the R&A basically telling Greg Norman to stick it by going out of its way not to invite him to all of the neat past champion activities. Some, like Rory and Tiger, have supported the decision while others who have far less standing much less a clue have called it petty. Not surprisingly, the FGR has a take and it begins with a movie reference as it so often does. 

There is a great scene in Michael Clayton where the three lawyers played by George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Sidney Pollack (Marty Bach) and Michael O'Keefe (Barry Grissom) are in a heated discussion regarding Clayton's role within the firm. Bach is the senior partner, Clayton is the firm's fixer and Grissom is the attack dog litigator without a conscious. As the scene crescendos, Bach points to Grissom and says "enough ok . . . he's an asshole, but he knows it."   

We learn two things from this scene: (1) Danny Noonan finally made it to law school, and (2) there are two kinds of assholes, those of us who know what we are and those who don't. It's still not clear which one Greg Norman is. On the one hand, how could he not know? He's arguably the biggest asshole in the history of a sport that has more than its fair share of them. I mean these are the people who decided to amplify Johnny Miller with a microphone (a brilliant decision by the way).  

On the other hand, Norman is such a colossal asshole and he flaunts it with such enthusiasm that maybe he doesn't even know it. We are talking about a guy who posed for ESPN Magazine at 63 wearing nothing but his signature straw hat with his logo on it in one of the more classic cases of "was anyone actually asking for this?" It would appear that what the Shark lacks in closing skills, he makes-up for with a lack of self-awareness. 

"Please smile Graeme . . .
they know where we live."
This only really matters because I'm curious as to whether Norman feels wronged by the R&A's decision or if he's like, "yeah I probably had that coming." Considering that the Shark's primary source of sustenance appears to be bitterness towards the game that made him rich and famous in the first place, I'm guessing that he was caught off guard by the disinvitation. Good. If you haven't figured it out yet, I'm part of the "karma's a bitch" contingent. 

Ironically, Norman emerges from this as the real winner because the net effect of the R&A's decision is that he will now have more time to spend with his family. And we all know that's the ultimate career goal of every professional golfer. Well that and "growing the game" but that almost goes without saying at this point.     

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I swear it's purely coincidental that I referenced O'Keefe's scene just ten days after he liked a tweet I sent about it. Well, maybe it's not so coincidental considering I spend a few minutes each day ruminating on what a great movie it is but it's something. 


GOLF ANALYSIS

Jordan Spieth is the pick this week and frankly, I've never felt more confident. In addition to his British Open win in 2017 and his runner-up last year, Spieth also finished tied for 4th at St. Andrews in 2015. It's as if the guy who always expects things to go wrong is built to play courses where things are expected to go wrong. He's never missed a cut and, even when his game was dogshit in 2019, he managed a tie for 20th. 

The two most intriguing prospects of the week are Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods. Rory is arguably the second most effective British Open specialist of the last ten years and, the last time he played St. Andrews, he finished tied for 3rd.* Meanwhile Tiger won two of his three Claret Jugs here by a combined 13 strokes. Despite the fact that I think Rory may contend and Tiger will make the cut, I'm not picking either one as they both feel a bit overvalued. (Note that I like to point-out when I write things that will probably come back to bite me in the ass and this is definitely one of them).

No one would be surprised 
to see Xander holding a
bigger jug on Sunday.
Xander Schauffele, however, feels undervalued considering he's won his last two tournaments and finished top ten in 9 of the 21 majors he's played including a runner-up at the 2018 Open. I used to shy away from players on hot streaks because I don't understand how probabilities work (despite that ill-fated semester as a math major) but Scottie Scheffler cured me of that. Then I showed him by picking him to win the PGA Championship thereby causing him to miss the cut. Eat it Scottie! 

Next up we have the captains of Smash GC and Stingers GC in Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen. I'd like to add something snarky here but what's the point? 

No better antidote to that last paragraph than a pair of feel good picks like Tony Finau and Max Homa. Finau's British Open track record is surprisingly impressive with five trips and no finish worse than a T27. Also, in researching that, I just learned that his first name is Milton and now I like him even more. 

Marc Leishman gets the nod based on his runner-up at St. Andrews in 2015 and the fact that I don't really like anyone else in this range. Paul Casey makes a ton of sense but he hasn't played since he withdrew from the Masters and I remember that costing me a lot more money than it probably did. I guess you could go Robert MacIntyre here but can you really trust a guy who capitalizes the fourth letter of his last name? I say no.

Justin Rose edges Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood because I already more than satisfied my LIVGolf quota. I will be rooting with great fervor for Sergio to miss the cut. More on that insufferable prick in an upcoming post.

We'll round-out the recommendations with Thomas Pieters and Mackenzie Hughes. There are a slew of intriguing value picks this week including Cameron Tringale, Danny Willett and Justin Harding but I like Pieters and Hughes. Just trust me. Remember, this tournament is my specialty.  

One and Done Pick: Jordan Spieth
Get used to a lot of these
poses and dubious self-talk.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele

Sleeper Pick: Mackenzie Hughes

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Jordan Spieth

$10,000

Xander Schauffele

$9,900

Louis Oosthuizen

$8,800

Brooks Koepka

$8,500

Tony Finau

$8,400

Max Homa

$7,900

Marc Leishman

$7,700

Justin Rose

$7,400

Thomas Pieters

$7,200

Mackenzie Hughes

$6,800


Footnotes

[We're relocating the footnotes to this space because apparently they were too difficult to find them at the bottom of the post and they often contain many of the best words]

* Rory missed the 2015 Open due to an injury sustained whilst playing soccer with his mates. I think we all figured he was drunk and goofing around so it kind of added to his charm even though it cost him a chance to repeat in a year when he had already finished 4th at the Masters and T9 at the U.S. Open. Now it's been eight years since he's won any major and it doesn't seem quite as charming.

                                      THE SONNY CORLEONE MEMORIAL
                                      HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

By most accounts, James Caan was a fellow asshole but he was one hell of an actor when cast in the right role so we feel obliged to pay our respects. The Godfather is an obvious one but he's also worth checking-out in Thief and of course Brian's Song (you will cry). Now back to golf . . .  

 

DK Price

2021

2019

2018

2017

2016

Rory McIlroy

$11,100

T46

MC

T2

T4

T5

Scottie Scheffler

$11,000

T8

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jon Rahm

$10,800

T3

T11

MC

T44

T59

Justin Thomas

$10,500

T40

T11

MC

MC

T53

Collin Morikawa

$10,300

1st

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$10,000

2nd

T20

T9

1st

T30

Xander Schauffele

$9,900

T26

T41

T2

T20

DNP

Matthew Fitzpatrick

$9,700

T26

T20

MC

T44

MC

Will Zalatoris

$9,600

W/D

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Smith

$9,500

T33

T20

78th

MC

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,400

MC

T41

T12

DNP

DNP

Shane Lowry

$9,300

T12

1st

MC

MC

MC

Dustin Johnson

$9,200

T8

T51

MC

T54

T9

Viktor Hovland

$9,000

T12

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Burns

$8,900

T76

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Louis Oosthuizen

$8,800

T3

T20

T28

MC

MC

Tyrrell Hatton

$8,700

MC

T6

T51

MC

T5

Tommy Fleetwood

$8,600

T33

2nd

T12

T27

MC

Brooks Koepka

$8,500

T6

T4

T39

T6

DNP

Tony Finau

$8,400

T19

3rd

T9

T27

T18

Sungjae Im

$8,300

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Corey Conners

$8,200

T15

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

B. DeChambeau

$8,100

T33

MC

T51

DNP

MC

Joaquin Niemann

$8,000

T59

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Max Homa

$7,900

T40

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Young

$7,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Robert MacIntyre

$7,800

T8

T6

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Scott

$7,700

T46

MC

T17

T22

T43

Marc Leishman

$7,700

MC

MC

60th

T6

T53

Abraham Ancer

$7,600

T59

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Webb Simpson

$7,600

T19

T30

T12

T37

T39

Billy Horschel

$7,500

T53

MC

DNP

MC

MC

Paul Casey

$7,500

T15

T57

T51

T11

MC

Tiger Woods

$7,500

DNP

MC

T6

DNP

DNP

Justin Rose

$7,400

T46

T20

T2

T54

T22

Lee Westwood

$7,400

T59

T4

T61

T27

T22

Seamus Power

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sergio Garcia

$7,400

T19

T67

MC

T37

T5

C. Bezuidenhout

$7,300

T53

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Mito Pereira

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Reed

$7,300

MC

10th

T28

MC

T12

Talor Gooch

$7,300

T33

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Harold Varner, III

$7,200

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

T66

Jason Kokrak

$7,200

T26

T32

MC

DNP

DNP

Jordan Smith

$7,200

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Keegan Bradley

$7,200

MC

MC

79th

DNP

T18

Russell Henley

$7,200

MC

DNP

MC

T37

MC

Thomas Pieters

$7,200

DNP

T67

T28

T44

T30

Francesco Molinari

$7,100

MC

T11

1st

MC

T36

Gary Woodland

$7,100

MC

MC

T67

T70

DNP

Ian Poulter

$7,100

T26

MC

MC

T14

DNP

Ryan Fox

$7,100

T67

T16

T39

MC

DNP

Victor Perez

$7,100

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Aaron Wise

$7,000

DNP

T41

DNP

DNP

DNP

Bernd Wiesberger

$7,000

T59

T32

DNP

T74

MC

Cameron Tringale

$7,000

T26

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Danny Willett

$7,000

T33

T6

T24

76th

T53

Harris English

$7,000

T46

DNP

DNP

DNP

T46

Henrik Stenson

$7,000

MC

T20

T35

T11

1st

Kevin Na

$7,000

DNP

DNP

T51

T44

T22

Si Woo Kim

$7,000

DNP

MC

T67

MC

DNP

Tom Hoge

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brian Harman

$6,900

T19

MC

MC

MC

DNP

Hao-Tong Li

$6,900

MC

MC

T39

3rd

DNP

Kevin Kisner

$6,900

73rd

T30

T2

T54

76th

Lucas Herbert

$6,900

MC

DNP

T51

DNP

DNP

Chris Kirk

$6,800

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Dylan Fritteli

$6,800

5th

T32

MC

MC

DNP

Guido Migliozzi

$6,800

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Justin Harding

$6,800

T19

T41

DNP

DNP

DNP

Mackenzie Hughes

$6,800

T6

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Stewart Cink

$6,800

MC

T20

T24

MC

DNP

Emiliano Grillo

$6,700

T12

MC

MC

MC

T12

Erik Van Rooyen

$6,700

MC

T20

T17

DNP

DNP

Phil Mickelson

$6,600

MC

MC

T24

MC

2nd

Zach Johnson

$6,500

DNP

MC

T17

T14

T12

Darren Clarke

$6,000

MC

MC

MC

MC

T30

John Daly

$6,000

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

MC


Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.