Fantasy Golf: The Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview

I went to an Orioles game last night and thoroughly enjoyed every minute of it despite my predisposition to hate everything I do on a Monday. I know. I can't believe it either but, if you haven't been paying attention, the O's are one of the best 2022 stories in baseball if not all of sports. And I say that without a hint of my usual hyperbole. They don't need it.

The win on Monday raised their record to 48-48. Big effing deal right? Well yeah. They recently had a ten game winning streak and have now won 13 of their last 17. The 2022 win total of 48 eclipses the entire 2018 season and currently has them on pace for 81 which is crazy considering they averaged 51 wins over the last three full seasons. To say the fan base had fallen into a desultory state wouldn't begin to tell the story. 

By way of example, a few years ago someone broke into my car and stole all of the change from my ashtray but left an envelope on the passenger seat with the words "ORIOLES TICKETS" in giant block letters. As recently as May, you couldn't trade two seats behind homeplate for six feet of CVS coupons. Now I've got my fifteen year old daughter submitting a formal request for a TV subscription change so she can watch the games. (Vegas likes her chances).

Why does this matter? Well, thanks to the fact that they play almost everyday for six straight months, baseball teams are able to completely change the mood of a city. And Baltimore desperately needed a boost after the riots, a comically criminal mayor and the installation of speed cameras on the JFX. (Come on man. Some of us got places to go). 

The mood around here is downright ebullient these days. Lots of lively banter about things people actually enjoy talking about. Parents posting pictures of themselves with their kids at baseball games instead of lacrosse tournaments. Seagulls and rats living together. It's like we've rediscovered the America of our youth. I even caught myself shopping for a used Camaro the other day.    

TWEET OF THE WEEK

In honor of the facts that (1) sharks are apparently cruising the east coast beaches with the brazenness of a high school lacrosse team on a Red Bull bender, and (2) my preferred death wish is swimming beyond the break . . . 

I like to play my cello on the beach, but I only know 2 notes and for some reason it freaks everyone out.

— McDad (@mcdadstuff) July 18, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS

Last week's off the cuff picks were actually pretty strong as they featured the winner (Tony Finau), a runner-up (Emiliano Grillo) and seven other players who made the cut. Of course I pinned my hopes for a profitable week on Brendan Steele making the cut and I can tell you from multiple experiences, he is not the guy you want on the bubble with the clock winding down on Friday. Suffice it to say that he shot 39 on the back and missed the cut by 4. I'm on to Detroit.  

It's time for Will Zalatoris or Cameron Young to win a damn golf tournament. Between the two of them, they've got a dozen top five finishes since October and four of those have been at majors. Sooner or later one of them is just going to ball strike the shit out of a tournament and win by five. A golf course that has been recently dominated by the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Matthew Wolff and Joaquin Niemann would be a logical place for that to occur. 

(It's worth noting that the last time Young followed-up a missed cut with a top three like he just did at St. Andrews was at the RBC Heritage where he finished T3 and then he went T2 at the Wells Fargo and T3 at the PGA Championship. We like to call that "streaky" in our business).

Kevin Kisner clearly loves this golf course as evidenced by his T8 last year and 3rd place finish in 2020 so he was an obvious pick. As were Maverick McNealy and Webb Simpson who have recently dropped into the undervalued zone. 

We are all aboard the Joohyung Kim bandwagon until the wheels fall-off (big bandwagon week for the FGR). Troy Merritt barely makes the cut under the Kevin Kisner theory even though I really wanted to go double old school and give his spot to Harris English alongside Rickie Fowler. Rickie gets the nod based on the fact that he's hungrier. At least he damn well better be. 

The battle for sleeper was pretty intense. On one side we had a former Masters champion who finished 7th last week and T4 here two years ago. On the other hand we had a guy named "Hank". Ultimately the Masters champ got the nod but it was close because I mean, "Hank".

One and Done Pick: Cameron Young

The MLB sponsorship 
was the clincher.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Will Zalatoris 

Sleeper Pick: Danny Willett

DraftKings Top Ten Values 

Will Zalatoris	$10,400
Cameron Young	$10,100
Kevin Kisner	$9,100
Maverick McNealy	$8,800
Webb Simpson	$8,300
Joohyung Kim	$7,600
Troy Merritt	$7,600
Rickie Fowler	$7,300
Danny Willett	$7,100
Hank Lebioda	$7,100

 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. 

Fantasy Golf: The 3M Open Preview

Sometime a little before noon on July 19, 2009, I bid my family farewell on the beach at 137th Street in Ocean City, Maryland and adjourned to the solitude of my in-law's condominium to watch the final round of the British Open. A highly improbable story was developing with 59 year old Tom Watson leading by one shot after three rounds and, as he made the turn on Sunday, he was only one shot behind emerging folding chair and Saudi Golf mouthpiece Lee Westwood.

As the back nine unfolded, the impossible suddenly started becoming probable. Westwood bogeyed three of his last four holes foreshadowing his major career and Watson just kept hanging around the top of the leaderboard. As he played the 17th, we had all traded reluctant optimism for full-blown hope. And then he made birdie to take a one shot lead to the final hole. I can still remember the "this is going to make the whole world a better place if he wins" feeling I had like it was yesterday. 

Anyone who watched it live will never forget his next five shots. A hybrid off the tee that was absolutely smoked down the middle followed by an adrenaline juiced 8-iron that hit just short of the pin and barely rolled over the back. Normally that would be no problem for a guy who'd won five Claret Jugs . . . if he wasn't 59. Alas, the adrenaline got him again and he putted it 8 feet past the hole into disaster territory for a player who had shown enough yips during regular tour events that we knew what would happened next. And it did. He tapped-in for a bogey that would send him to a four-hole playoff against Stewart Cink. 

Watson would predictably run-out of gas in the four-hole playoff, ultimately losing by 6 shots. I walked back out to the beach and someone asked me what happened. I'm pretty sure my response was "I don't want to talk about it" as I walked straight into the ocean with thoughts of never turning back. Last Sunday didn't reach that level but it sure as hell was reminiscent. Good times. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK*

After Sunday, I think it is no longer hyperbole to suggest that Paul Azinger is one of the worst announcers in all of sports. Maybe it's hard for his employers to recognize considering the marginal talent** with which he is surrounded but good god he takes Dan Dierdorfian stating of the obvious to never before seen levels. When 50% of your verbal meandering focuses on the facts that (a) Rory is a good driver, and (b) Cam is a good putter, it feels like your style may be a lacking a bit of nuance and originality. And here's another gem from Saturday that I didn't even catch.

Rory with a wide open 60 degree wedge in his hands

Azinger: He’s gonna hit it low here

— John P. Alexander (@JPalex16) July 16, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS

Look. I'm not going to waste your time and, more importantly, my time by acting like I have any idea who is going to play well this week. The previous winners of this event on this course have been Cameron Champ, Michael Thompson and Matthew Wolff, three guys with less in common than me, Tim Tebow and a taxidermist (I don't like dead things). I've made some educated suggestions below but proceed at your own peril. 

This week is so crazy that renowned chalk enthusiast Rob Bolton over at the PGATour.com Power Rankings has the favorite Tony Finau ranked 6th behind the likes of Davis Riley, Cam Davis and his overall #1, Adam Svensson who's 6th place finish at the Barbasol Championship was his first top ten since February. That's putting a lot of stock in a tournament won by Trey Mullinax but I like that Rob is finally letting his hair down. Next thing you know he's going to buy a Chrysler Sebring and start going by "Bobby."     

Anyway, I'm picking Adam Hadwin but, by the time I finish this second glass of box caliber wine, I may shift over to Nick Hardy who I'm convinced is the next first-time winner laying in wait. I am also intrigued by Joohynung Kim who has climbed to 40th in the world after a 3rd place finish at the Scottish Open. More importantly, he finished 23rd at the U.S. Open and T17 at the Byron Nelson so he's proven himself in the states. Bobby has him ranked 12th, just behind the magnetic duo of Chez Reavie and Cameron Tringale. 

One and Done Pick: Adam Hadwin

"The winner gets a Sebring and 
the feeling that they're making 
a difference in the world."

Other Guy I'd Pick: Nick Hardy

Sleeper Pick: Michael Gligic

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Tony Finau	$10,500
Adam Hadwin	$9,600
Maverick McNealy	$9,300
Adam Long	$8,600
Brendan Steele	$8,300
Nick Hardy	$8,000
Rickie Fowler	$7,700
Emiliano Grillo	$7,600
Joohynung Kim	$7,300
Michael Gligic	$7,000

Footnote

* I try to maintain a golf theme for the Tweet of the Week to keep up appearances but I would be remiss if I didn't include Andy Towers' epic PLL locker room speech. I can say with 90% certainty that it is fact based and with 100% certainty that his neighbor's dog never shat on this lawn again.

“I’m gonna break your f***ing neck if he shits on our f***ing yard again” pic.twitter.com/npbdYtGKPI

— PLL MICD (@PLLMICD) July 12, 2022

 ** While we're here, someone please tell Peter Jacobsen that there is no lazier form of golf commentary than "I think __________ will definitely be hoisting the Claret Jug in the future" and he said it of Viktor Hovland twice in the space of about half an hour on Saturday. Unless you were once so prescient that you said that about Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton, shut-up. You have no idea who's going to win the next twenty British Opens you dolt.

Fantasy Golf: The British Open Preview

If this website does anything somewhat consistently well, it's the British Open. Whether it's shredding a Golf Digest list of "11 Sneaky British Open Picks" or a celebration of Darren Clarke's 2011 victory, this tournament brings-out the best in the FGR which shouldn't really come as a surprise. As I wrote in that 2011 post:

The British Open is like Mad Men set on a golf course. It seems like everyone 

including the kids in the gallery are smoking cigarettes, the announcers make 

a drinking reference every fifteen minutes and the winner essentially declares 

during his acceptance speech that he’s going to get pissed drunk that night. It’s 

the cool major.

Then I added a classic picture of Don Draper and Roger Sterling with a hilarious caption. It was a whole thing. You should really check it out.

This year we have the gift of the R&A basically telling Greg Norman to stick it by going out of its way not to invite him to all of the neat past champion activities. Some, like Rory and Tiger, have supported the decision while others who have far less standing much less a clue have called it petty. Not surprisingly, the FGR has a take and it begins with a movie reference as it so often does. 

There is a great scene in Michael Clayton where the three lawyers played by George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Sidney Pollack (Marty Bach) and Michael O'Keefe (Barry Grissom) are in a heated discussion regarding Clayton's role within the firm. Bach is the senior partner, Clayton is the firm's fixer and Grissom is the attack dog litigator without a conscious. As the scene crescendos, Bach points to Grissom and says "enough ok . . . he's an asshole, but he knows it."   

We learn two things from this scene: (1) Danny Noonan finally made it to law school, and (2) there are two kinds of assholes, those of us who know what we are and those who don't. It's still not clear which one Greg Norman is. On the one hand, how could he not know? He's arguably the biggest asshole in the history of a sport that has more than its fair share of them. I mean these are the people who decided to amplify Johnny Miller with a microphone (a brilliant decision by the way).  

On the other hand, Norman is such a colossal asshole and he flaunts it with such enthusiasm that maybe he doesn't even know it. We are talking about a guy who posed for ESPN Magazine at 63 wearing nothing but his signature straw hat with his logo on it in one of the more classic cases of "was anyone actually asking for this?" It would appear that what the Shark lacks in closing skills, he makes-up for with a lack of self-awareness. 

"Please smile Graeme . . .
they know where we live."

This only really matters because I'm curious as to whether Norman feels wronged by the R&A's decision or if he's like, "yeah I probably had that coming." Considering that the Shark's primary source of sustenance appears to be bitterness towards the game that made him rich and famous in the first place, I'm guessing that he was caught off guard by the disinvitation. Good. If you haven't figured it out yet, I'm part of the "karma's a bitch" contingent. 

Ironically, Norman emerges from this as the real winner because the net effect of the R&A's decision is that he will now have more time to spend with his family. And we all know that's the ultimate career goal of every professional golfer. Well that and "growing the game" but that almost goes without saying at this point.     

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I swear it's purely coincidental that I referenced O'Keefe's scene just ten days after he liked a tweet I sent about it. Well, maybe it's not so coincidental considering I spend a few minutes each day ruminating on what a great movie it is but it's something. 

Not going to lie to you. Pretty big day in the life of a 53 year old fantasy golf writer when Danny Noonan likes your tweet. pic.twitter.com/TKCXOKSJen

— Ronny Elliott (@FantasyGolfRep) July 2, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS

Jordan Spieth is the pick this week and frankly, I've never felt more confident. In addition to his British Open win in 2017 and his runner-up last year, Spieth also finished tied for 4th at St. Andrews in 2015. It's as if the guy who always expects things to go wrong is built to play courses where things are expected to go wrong. He's never missed a cut and, even when his game was dogshit in 2019, he managed a tie for 20th. 

The two most intriguing prospects of the week are Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods. Rory is arguably the second most effective British Open specialist of the last ten years and, the last time he played St. Andrews, he finished tied for 3rd.* Meanwhile Tiger won two of his three Claret Jugs here by a combined 13 strokes. Despite the fact that I think Rory may contend and Tiger will make the cut, I'm not picking either one as they both feel a bit overvalued. (Note that I like to point-out when I write things that will probably come back to bite me in the ass and this is definitely one of them).

No one would be surprised 
to see Xander holding a
bigger jug on Sunday.

Xander Schauffele, however, feels undervalued considering he's won his last two tournaments and finished top ten in 9 of the 21 majors he's played including a runner-up at the 2018 Open. I used to shy away from players on hot streaks because I don't understand how probabilities work (despite that ill-fated semester as a math major) but Scottie Scheffler cured me of that. Then I showed him by picking him to win the PGA Championship thereby causing him to miss the cut. Eat it Scottie! 

Next up we have the captains of Smash GC and Stingers GC in Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen. I'd like to add something snarky here but what's the point? 

No better antidote to that last paragraph than a pair of feel good picks like Tony Finau and Max Homa. Finau's British Open track record is surprisingly impressive with five trips and no finish worse than a T27. Also, in researching that, I just learned that his first name is Milton and now I like him even more. 

Marc Leishman gets the nod based on his runner-up at St. Andrews in 2015 and the fact that I don't really like anyone else in this range. Paul Casey makes a ton of sense but he hasn't played since he withdrew from the Masters and I remember that costing me a lot more money than it probably did. I guess you could go Robert MacIntyre here but can you really trust a guy who capitalizes the fourth letter of his last name? I say no.

Justin Rose edges Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood because I already more than satisfied my LIVGolf quota. I will be rooting with great fervor for Sergio to miss the cut. More on that insufferable prick in an upcoming post.

We'll round-out the recommendations with Thomas Pieters and Mackenzie Hughes. There are a slew of intriguing value picks this week including Cameron Tringale, Danny Willett and Justin Harding but I like Pieters and Hughes. Just trust me. Remember, this tournament is my specialty.  

One and Done Pick: Jordan Spieth

Get used to a lot of these
poses and dubious self-talk.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele

Sleeper Pick: Mackenzie Hughes

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Jordan Spieth	$10,000
Xander Schauffele	$9,900
Louis Oosthuizen	$8,800
Brooks Koepka	$8,500
Tony Finau	$8,400
Max Homa	$7,900
Marc Leishman	$7,700
Justin Rose	$7,400
Thomas Pieters	$7,200
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,800

Footnotes

[We're relocating the footnotes to this space because apparently they were too difficult to find them at the bottom of the post and they often contain many of the best words]

* Rory missed the 2015 Open due to an injury sustained whilst playing soccer with his mates. I think we all figured he was drunk and goofing around so it kind of added to his charm even though it cost him a chance to repeat in a year when he had already finished 4th at the Masters and T9 at the U.S. Open. Now it's been eight years since he's won any major and it doesn't seem quite as charming.

                                      THE SONNY CORLEONE MEMORIAL

                                      HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

By most accounts, James Caan was a fellow asshole but he was one hell of an actor when cast in the right role so we feel obliged to pay our respects. The Godfather is an obvious one but he's also worth checking-out in Thief and of course Brian's Song (you will cry). Now back to golf . . .  

	DK Price	2021	2019	2018	2017	2016
Rory McIlroy	$11,100	T46	MC	T2	T4	T5
Scottie Scheffler	$11,000	T8	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jon Rahm	$10,800	T3	T11	MC	T44	T59
Justin Thomas	$10,500	T40	T11	MC	MC	T53
Collin Morikawa	$10,300	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$10,000	2nd	T20	T9	1st	T30
Xander Schauffele	$9,900	T26	T41	T2	T20	DNP
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$9,700	T26	T20	MC	T44	MC
Will Zalatoris	$9,600	W/D	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Smith	$9,500	T33	T20	78th	MC	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,400	MC	T41	T12	DNP	DNP
Shane Lowry	$9,300	T12	1st	MC	MC	MC
Dustin Johnson	$9,200	T8	T51	MC	T54	T9
Viktor Hovland	$9,000	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Burns	$8,900	T76	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Louis Oosthuizen	$8,800	T3	T20	T28	MC	MC
Tyrrell Hatton	$8,700	MC	T6	T51	MC	T5
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,600	T33	2nd	T12	T27	MC
Brooks Koepka	$8,500	T6	T4	T39	T6	DNP
Tony Finau	$8,400	T19	3rd	T9	T27	T18
Sungjae Im	$8,300	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Corey Conners	$8,200	T15	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
B. DeChambeau	$8,100	T33	MC	T51	DNP	MC
Joaquin Niemann	$8,000	T59	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Homa	$7,900	T40	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Young	$7,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Robert MacIntyre	$7,800	T8	T6	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$7,700	T46	MC	T17	T22	T43
Marc Leishman	$7,700	MC	MC	60th	T6	T53
Abraham Ancer	$7,600	T59	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$7,600	T19	T30	T12	T37	T39
Billy Horschel	$7,500	T53	MC	DNP	MC	MC
Paul Casey	$7,500	T15	T57	T51	T11	MC
Tiger Woods	$7,500	DNP	MC	T6	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$7,400	T46	T20	T2	T54	T22
Lee Westwood	$7,400	T59	T4	T61	T27	T22
Seamus Power	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sergio Garcia	$7,400	T19	T67	MC	T37	T5
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,300	T53	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mito Pereira	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Reed	$7,300	MC	10th	T28	MC	T12
Talor Gooch	$7,300	T33	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harold Varner, III	$7,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	T66
Jason Kokrak	$7,200	T26	T32	MC	DNP	DNP
Jordan Smith	$7,200	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$7,200	MC	MC	79th	DNP	T18
Russell Henley	$7,200	MC	DNP	MC	T37	MC
Thomas Pieters	$7,200	DNP	T67	T28	T44	T30
Francesco Molinari	$7,100	MC	T11	1st	MC	T36
Gary Woodland	$7,100	MC	MC	T67	T70	DNP
Ian Poulter	$7,100	T26	MC	MC	T14	DNP
Ryan Fox	$7,100	T67	T16	T39	MC	DNP
Victor Perez	$7,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Aaron Wise	$7,000	DNP	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bernd Wiesberger	$7,000	T59	T32	DNP	T74	MC
Cameron Tringale	$7,000	T26	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Danny Willett	$7,000	T33	T6	T24	76th	T53
Harris English	$7,000	T46	DNP	DNP	DNP	T46
Henrik Stenson	$7,000	MC	T20	T35	T11	1st
Kevin Na	$7,000	DNP	DNP	T51	T44	T22
Si Woo Kim	$7,000	DNP	MC	T67	MC	DNP
Tom Hoge	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$6,900	T19	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Hao-Tong Li	$6,900	MC	MC	T39	3rd	DNP
Kevin Kisner	$6,900	73rd	T30	T2	T54	76th
Lucas Herbert	$6,900	MC	DNP	T51	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,800	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Dylan Fritteli	$6,800	5th	T32	MC	MC	DNP
Guido Migliozzi	$6,800	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Harding	$6,800	T19	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,800	T6	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Stewart Cink	$6,800	MC	T20	T24	MC	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$6,700	T12	MC	MC	MC	T12
Erik Van Rooyen	$6,700	MC	T20	T17	DNP	DNP
Phil Mickelson	$6,600	MC	MC	T24	MC	2nd
Zach Johnson	$6,500	DNP	MC	T17	T14	T12
Darren Clarke	$6,000	MC	MC	MC	MC	T30
John Daly	$6,000	DNP	DNP	MC	MC	MC

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.