Fantasy Golf: The British Open Preview

If this website does anything somewhat consistently well, it's the British Open. Whether it's shredding a Golf Digest list of "11 Sneaky British Open Picks" or a celebration of Darren Clarke's 2011 victory, this tournament brings-out the best in the FGR which shouldn't really come as a surprise. As I wrote in that 2011 post:

The British Open is like Mad Men set on a golf course. It seems like everyone 

including the kids in the gallery are smoking cigarettes, the announcers make 

a drinking reference every fifteen minutes and the winner essentially declares 

during his acceptance speech that he’s going to get pissed drunk that night. It’s 

the cool major.

Then I added a classic picture of Don Draper and Roger Sterling with a hilarious caption. It was a whole thing. You should really check it out.

This year we have the gift of the R&A basically telling Greg Norman to stick it by going out of its way not to invite him to all of the neat past champion activities. Some, like Rory and Tiger, have supported the decision while others who have far less standing much less a clue have called it petty. Not surprisingly, the FGR has a take and it begins with a movie reference as it so often does. 

There is a great scene in Michael Clayton where the three lawyers played by George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Sidney Pollack (Marty Bach) and Michael O'Keefe (Barry Grissom) are in a heated discussion regarding Clayton's role within the firm. Bach is the senior partner, Clayton is the firm's fixer and Grissom is the attack dog litigator without a conscious. As the scene crescendos, Bach points to Grissom and says "enough ok . . . he's an asshole, but he knows it."   

We learn two things from this scene: (1) Danny Noonan finally made it to law school, and (2) there are two kinds of assholes, those of us who know what we are and those who don't. It's still not clear which one Greg Norman is. On the one hand, how could he not know? He's arguably the biggest asshole in the history of a sport that has more than its fair share of them. I mean these are the people who decided to amplify Johnny Miller with a microphone (a brilliant decision by the way).  

On the other hand, Norman is such a colossal asshole and he flaunts it with such enthusiasm that maybe he doesn't even know it. We are talking about a guy who posed for ESPN Magazine at 63 wearing nothing but his signature straw hat with his logo on it in one of the more classic cases of "was anyone actually asking for this?" It would appear that what the Shark lacks in closing skills, he makes-up for with a lack of self-awareness. 

"Please smile Graeme . . .
they know where we live."

This only really matters because I'm curious as to whether Norman feels wronged by the R&A's decision or if he's like, "yeah I probably had that coming." Considering that the Shark's primary source of sustenance appears to be bitterness towards the game that made him rich and famous in the first place, I'm guessing that he was caught off guard by the disinvitation. Good. If you haven't figured it out yet, I'm part of the "karma's a bitch" contingent. 

Ironically, Norman emerges from this as the real winner because the net effect of the R&A's decision is that he will now have more time to spend with his family. And we all know that's the ultimate career goal of every professional golfer. Well that and "growing the game" but that almost goes without saying at this point.     

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I swear it's purely coincidental that I referenced O'Keefe's scene just ten days after he liked a tweet I sent about it. Well, maybe it's not so coincidental considering I spend a few minutes each day ruminating on what a great movie it is but it's something. 

Not going to lie to you. Pretty big day in the life of a 53 year old fantasy golf writer when Danny Noonan likes your tweet. pic.twitter.com/TKCXOKSJen

— Ronny Elliott (@FantasyGolfRep) July 2, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS

Jordan Spieth is the pick this week and frankly, I've never felt more confident. In addition to his British Open win in 2017 and his runner-up last year, Spieth also finished tied for 4th at St. Andrews in 2015. It's as if the guy who always expects things to go wrong is built to play courses where things are expected to go wrong. He's never missed a cut and, even when his game was dogshit in 2019, he managed a tie for 20th. 

The two most intriguing prospects of the week are Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods. Rory is arguably the second most effective British Open specialist of the last ten years and, the last time he played St. Andrews, he finished tied for 3rd.* Meanwhile Tiger won two of his three Claret Jugs here by a combined 13 strokes. Despite the fact that I think Rory may contend and Tiger will make the cut, I'm not picking either one as they both feel a bit overvalued. (Note that I like to point-out when I write things that will probably come back to bite me in the ass and this is definitely one of them).

No one would be surprised 
to see Xander holding a
bigger jug on Sunday.

Xander Schauffele, however, feels undervalued considering he's won his last two tournaments and finished top ten in 9 of the 21 majors he's played including a runner-up at the 2018 Open. I used to shy away from players on hot streaks because I don't understand how probabilities work (despite that ill-fated semester as a math major) but Scottie Scheffler cured me of that. Then I showed him by picking him to win the PGA Championship thereby causing him to miss the cut. Eat it Scottie! 

Next up we have the captains of Smash GC and Stingers GC in Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen. I'd like to add something snarky here but what's the point? 

No better antidote to that last paragraph than a pair of feel good picks like Tony Finau and Max Homa. Finau's British Open track record is surprisingly impressive with five trips and no finish worse than a T27. Also, in researching that, I just learned that his first name is Milton and now I like him even more. 

Marc Leishman gets the nod based on his runner-up at St. Andrews in 2015 and the fact that I don't really like anyone else in this range. Paul Casey makes a ton of sense but he hasn't played since he withdrew from the Masters and I remember that costing me a lot more money than it probably did. I guess you could go Robert MacIntyre here but can you really trust a guy who capitalizes the fourth letter of his last name? I say no.

Justin Rose edges Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood because I already more than satisfied my LIVGolf quota. I will be rooting with great fervor for Sergio to miss the cut. More on that insufferable prick in an upcoming post.

We'll round-out the recommendations with Thomas Pieters and Mackenzie Hughes. There are a slew of intriguing value picks this week including Cameron Tringale, Danny Willett and Justin Harding but I like Pieters and Hughes. Just trust me. Remember, this tournament is my specialty.  

One and Done Pick: Jordan Spieth

Get used to a lot of these
poses and dubious self-talk.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele

Sleeper Pick: Mackenzie Hughes

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Jordan Spieth	$10,000
Xander Schauffele	$9,900
Louis Oosthuizen	$8,800
Brooks Koepka	$8,500
Tony Finau	$8,400
Max Homa	$7,900
Marc Leishman	$7,700
Justin Rose	$7,400
Thomas Pieters	$7,200
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,800

Footnotes

[We're relocating the footnotes to this space because apparently they were too difficult to find them at the bottom of the post and they often contain many of the best words]

* Rory missed the 2015 Open due to an injury sustained whilst playing soccer with his mates. I think we all figured he was drunk and goofing around so it kind of added to his charm even though it cost him a chance to repeat in a year when he had already finished 4th at the Masters and T9 at the U.S. Open. Now it's been eight years since he's won any major and it doesn't seem quite as charming.

                                      THE SONNY CORLEONE MEMORIAL

                                      HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

By most accounts, James Caan was a fellow asshole but he was one hell of an actor when cast in the right role so we feel obliged to pay our respects. The Godfather is an obvious one but he's also worth checking-out in Thief and of course Brian's Song (you will cry). Now back to golf . . .  

	DK Price	2021	2019	2018	2017	2016
Rory McIlroy	$11,100	T46	MC	T2	T4	T5
Scottie Scheffler	$11,000	T8	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jon Rahm	$10,800	T3	T11	MC	T44	T59
Justin Thomas	$10,500	T40	T11	MC	MC	T53
Collin Morikawa	$10,300	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$10,000	2nd	T20	T9	1st	T30
Xander Schauffele	$9,900	T26	T41	T2	T20	DNP
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$9,700	T26	T20	MC	T44	MC
Will Zalatoris	$9,600	W/D	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Smith	$9,500	T33	T20	78th	MC	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,400	MC	T41	T12	DNP	DNP
Shane Lowry	$9,300	T12	1st	MC	MC	MC
Dustin Johnson	$9,200	T8	T51	MC	T54	T9
Viktor Hovland	$9,000	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Burns	$8,900	T76	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Louis Oosthuizen	$8,800	T3	T20	T28	MC	MC
Tyrrell Hatton	$8,700	MC	T6	T51	MC	T5
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,600	T33	2nd	T12	T27	MC
Brooks Koepka	$8,500	T6	T4	T39	T6	DNP
Tony Finau	$8,400	T19	3rd	T9	T27	T18
Sungjae Im	$8,300	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Corey Conners	$8,200	T15	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
B. DeChambeau	$8,100	T33	MC	T51	DNP	MC
Joaquin Niemann	$8,000	T59	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Homa	$7,900	T40	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Young	$7,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Robert MacIntyre	$7,800	T8	T6	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$7,700	T46	MC	T17	T22	T43
Marc Leishman	$7,700	MC	MC	60th	T6	T53
Abraham Ancer	$7,600	T59	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$7,600	T19	T30	T12	T37	T39
Billy Horschel	$7,500	T53	MC	DNP	MC	MC
Paul Casey	$7,500	T15	T57	T51	T11	MC
Tiger Woods	$7,500	DNP	MC	T6	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$7,400	T46	T20	T2	T54	T22
Lee Westwood	$7,400	T59	T4	T61	T27	T22
Seamus Power	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sergio Garcia	$7,400	T19	T67	MC	T37	T5
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,300	T53	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mito Pereira	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Reed	$7,300	MC	10th	T28	MC	T12
Talor Gooch	$7,300	T33	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harold Varner, III	$7,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	T66
Jason Kokrak	$7,200	T26	T32	MC	DNP	DNP
Jordan Smith	$7,200	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$7,200	MC	MC	79th	DNP	T18
Russell Henley	$7,200	MC	DNP	MC	T37	MC
Thomas Pieters	$7,200	DNP	T67	T28	T44	T30
Francesco Molinari	$7,100	MC	T11	1st	MC	T36
Gary Woodland	$7,100	MC	MC	T67	T70	DNP
Ian Poulter	$7,100	T26	MC	MC	T14	DNP
Ryan Fox	$7,100	T67	T16	T39	MC	DNP
Victor Perez	$7,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Aaron Wise	$7,000	DNP	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bernd Wiesberger	$7,000	T59	T32	DNP	T74	MC
Cameron Tringale	$7,000	T26	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Danny Willett	$7,000	T33	T6	T24	76th	T53
Harris English	$7,000	T46	DNP	DNP	DNP	T46
Henrik Stenson	$7,000	MC	T20	T35	T11	1st
Kevin Na	$7,000	DNP	DNP	T51	T44	T22
Si Woo Kim	$7,000	DNP	MC	T67	MC	DNP
Tom Hoge	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$6,900	T19	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Hao-Tong Li	$6,900	MC	MC	T39	3rd	DNP
Kevin Kisner	$6,900	73rd	T30	T2	T54	76th
Lucas Herbert	$6,900	MC	DNP	T51	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,800	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Dylan Fritteli	$6,800	5th	T32	MC	MC	DNP
Guido Migliozzi	$6,800	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Harding	$6,800	T19	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,800	T6	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Stewart Cink	$6,800	MC	T20	T24	MC	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$6,700	T12	MC	MC	MC	T12
Erik Van Rooyen	$6,700	MC	T20	T17	DNP	DNP
Phil Mickelson	$6,600	MC	MC	T24	MC	2nd
Zach Johnson	$6,500	DNP	MC	T17	T14	T12
Darren Clarke	$6,000	MC	MC	MC	MC	T30
John Daly	$6,000	DNP	DNP	MC	MC	MC

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.