So here's a fun fact. During one nine year stretch from 1999 through 2007, the complete list of players who beat Tiger Woods at Firestone C.C. was as follows: Stewart Cink (2004), Darren Clarke (2003), Jonathan Kaye (2003) and Davis Love, III (2003). Tiger won the tournament six times during that run, finished T2 once and T4 the other time (they played a different course in 2002). Then he went ahead and won it again in 2009 and 2013 for good measure. Suffice it to say that he likes the layout so I'm pulling the trigger on him this week and hoping for a miracle finish over the next seven weeks to salvage a season that has worn-out the clutch trying to find second gear.
A Tiger win would be a fitting farewell to Firestone C.C. which will be replaced as the host of this event by TPC Southwind because Bridgestone no longer wants to shell-out the sponsorship dough. I get it (sort of) but trading Firestone for Southwind is like trading a bottle of Macallan for a six pack of Zima. A defining characteristic of great golf courses is that great players are consistently successful on them (which is why TPC courses suck). But hey, anytime you get to move one of the most prestigious tournaments in the world to the sixth best course in Tennessee . . . you gotta do it right?
As for the rest of this week's picks, it gets a bit top heavy but that's the nature of this event. Going back to when Tiger started his run in 1999, the only real outlier to win it was Shane Lowry in 2016 and even he was playing decent golf at the time. Even as the game's talent pool has grown ridiculously deep in recent years, you still see the best players in the world logging repeat top tens including Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler along with slightly worn major winners like Zach Johnson, Adam Scott and Charl Schwartzel (no offense you old coots). With that history of stacked leaderboards, I feel compelled to include Rory and Rickie along with Dustin Johnson in my top ten based on current form combined with past success.
That means I need to balance-out with some cheaper options so, as much as I'd like to include mid-priced players like Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren and Paul Casey, I can't. Not that anyone in that range really excites me anyway though Patrick Fucking Reed is always a threat to crash the weekend leaderboard, spill a beer on the couch, double-dip the salsa and then be the thing that wouldn't leave at 2:00 a.m. (Hey Pat we've got kind of an early day tomorrow . . .).
I'm looking for value below the $8,000 mark and the first bargain there is Xander Schauffele. Let's take a moment to appreciate the big game run he's had since arriving on the scene with a T5 at last year's U.S. Open. He then went T20 at the British Open, T17 at the Bridgestone, won the Tour Championship, finished T18 at the WGC-Mexico, T2 at The Players, T6 at the U.S. Open and T2 at the British Open. Among players yet to win a major, I'm not sure there is more of a lock because clearly he ain't scared. It would shock no one to see him win this week (except for maybe the guys in my fantasy golf league because it would be the third guy from my team to win in as many weeks but who's counting?).
From there I'm going with three guys who played well at the British Open in Thorbjorn Olesen, Kevin Chappell and Kevin Kisner plus Kevin Na who can grind his way around Firestone and has the added benefit of giving me three guys named "Kevin." Throw-in Adam Hadwin because I need an inexpensive option who has demonstrated some level of success here. Put a few of those guys in the mix with a couple of the heavy hitters and pour yourself a couple fingers of McCallan on the rocks. Then just sit back and imagine how much Zima you can buy with your $8 in winnings.
One and Done Pick: Tiger Woods
Other Guy I'd Pick: Rory McIlroy
Sleeper Pick: Kevin Chappell
The DraftKings Top Ten Values
The most noteworthy bit of information from the five year chart below is how awful Phil Mickelson is on a course where he finished in the top ten the first three times he played it from 1999 to 2001. Then he stunk for five years before going T4 in 2008. Since then, his best finish is a T15 in 2014. In a tournament that usually only has about fifty good players in the field, he's finished T39 or worse ten out of the last fifteen times so don't be surprised if he gets frustrated on Saturday and hits a couple mulligans on the 15th hole or decides to play the hybrid tees so he can reach the par five 16th green in two.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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| Zima . . . when there's nothing left to drink except for peach schnapps. |
As for the rest of this week's picks, it gets a bit top heavy but that's the nature of this event. Going back to when Tiger started his run in 1999, the only real outlier to win it was Shane Lowry in 2016 and even he was playing decent golf at the time. Even as the game's talent pool has grown ridiculously deep in recent years, you still see the best players in the world logging repeat top tens including Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler along with slightly worn major winners like Zach Johnson, Adam Scott and Charl Schwartzel (no offense you old coots). With that history of stacked leaderboards, I feel compelled to include Rory and Rickie along with Dustin Johnson in my top ten based on current form combined with past success.
That means I need to balance-out with some cheaper options so, as much as I'd like to include mid-priced players like Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren and Paul Casey, I can't. Not that anyone in that range really excites me anyway though Patrick Fucking Reed is always a threat to crash the weekend leaderboard, spill a beer on the couch, double-dip the salsa and then be the thing that wouldn't leave at 2:00 a.m. (Hey Pat we've got kind of an early day tomorrow . . .).
I'm looking for value below the $8,000 mark and the first bargain there is Xander Schauffele. Let's take a moment to appreciate the big game run he's had since arriving on the scene with a T5 at last year's U.S. Open. He then went T20 at the British Open, T17 at the Bridgestone, won the Tour Championship, finished T18 at the WGC-Mexico, T2 at The Players, T6 at the U.S. Open and T2 at the British Open. Among players yet to win a major, I'm not sure there is more of a lock because clearly he ain't scared. It would shock no one to see him win this week (except for maybe the guys in my fantasy golf league because it would be the third guy from my team to win in as many weeks but who's counting?).
From there I'm going with three guys who played well at the British Open in Thorbjorn Olesen, Kevin Chappell and Kevin Kisner plus Kevin Na who can grind his way around Firestone and has the added benefit of giving me three guys named "Kevin." Throw-in Adam Hadwin because I need an inexpensive option who has demonstrated some level of success here. Put a few of those guys in the mix with a couple of the heavy hitters and pour yourself a couple fingers of McCallan on the rocks. Then just sit back and imagine how much Zima you can buy with your $8 in winnings.
One and Done Pick: Tiger Woods
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| Rickie is due to bolster his "Player Who May Never Win a Major" resume this week before he weds FGR favorite Allison Stokke. |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Rory McIlroy
Sleeper Pick: Kevin Chappell
The DraftKings Top Ten Values
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,700
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$11,300
|
Tiger Woods
|
$10,800
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$10,000
|
X. Schauffele
|
$7,900
|
Thor Oleson
|
$7,500
|
Kevin Chappell
|
$7,300
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$7,200
|
Kevin Na
|
$7,200
|
Adam Hadwin
|
$6,900
|
The most noteworthy bit of information from the five year chart below is how awful Phil Mickelson is on a course where he finished in the top ten the first three times he played it from 1999 to 2001. Then he stunk for five years before going T4 in 2008. Since then, his best finish is a T15 in 2014. In a tournament that usually only has about fifty good players in the field, he's finished T39 or worse ten out of the last fifteen times so don't be surprised if he gets frustrated on Saturday and hits a couple mulligans on the 15th hole or decides to play the hybrid tees so he can reach the par five 16th green in two.
DK Price
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
2013
|
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,700
|
T17
|
1st
|
T53
|
DNP
|
T33
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$11,300
|
T5
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
1st
|
T27
|
Tiger Woods
|
$10,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
W/D
|
1st
|
Justin Rose
|
$10,700
|
T63
|
T46
|
T3
|
T4
|
T17
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$10,400
|
T13
|
T3
|
T10
|
T49
|
DNP
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$10,000
|
9th
|
T10
|
T10
|
T8
|
T21
|
Jason Day
|
$9,800
|
T24
|
T3
|
T12
|
W/D
|
T53
|
Jon Rahm
|
$9,600
|
T28
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
F. Molinari
|
$9,400
|
T24
|
DNP
|
T61
|
T31
|
T44
|
T. Fleetwood
|
$9,200
|
T28
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$9,000
|
T17
|
DNP
|
T6
|
T19
|
T2
|
Brooks Koepka
|
$8,900
|
T17
|
W/D
|
T6
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Justin Thomas
|
$8,800
|
T28
|
T33
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Alex Noren
|
$8,700
|
T28
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Paul Casey
|
$8,600
|
T5
|
T16
|
T17
|
DNP
|
T27
|
Bubba Watson
|
$8,500
|
T17
|
T14
|
2nd
|
T37
|
T27
|
H. Matsuyama
|
$8,400
|
1st
|
T42
|
T37
|
T12
|
T21
|
Patrick Reed
|
$8,300
|
T36
|
52nd
|
T15
|
T4
|
DNP
|
Patrick Cantlay
|
$8,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Zach Johnson
|
$8,100
|
2nd
|
T10
|
T33
|
T23
|
T44
|
Tony Finau
|
$8,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Marc Leishman
|
$7,900
|
T41
|
55th
|
T33
|
3rd
|
DNP
|
X. Schauffele
|
$7,900
|
T17
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
B. DeChambeau
|
$7,800
|
T60
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$7,700
|
T17
|
T3
|
T25
|
T12
|
T27
|
Branden Grace
|
$7,600
|
T28
|
T10
|
T17
|
T23
|
T65
|
Webb Simpson
|
$7,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T25
|
T31
|
T14
|
Adam Scott
|
$7,500
|
T13
|
T10
|
T45
|
T8
|
T14
|
Charley Hoffman
|
$7,500
|
3rd
|
T33
|
T31
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Thor Oleson
|
$7,500
|
T10
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T48
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$7,400
|
T39
|
DNP
|
T37
|
2nd
|
T40
|
Phil Mickelson
|
$7,400
|
T39
|
T27
|
T63
|
T15
|
T21
|
Ian Poulter
|
$7,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T17
|
T52
|
T19
|
Kevin Chappell
|
$7,300
|
T13
|
T3
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$7,200
|
T28
|
T16
|
T37
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kevin Na
|
$7,200
|
DNP
|
T27
|
T15
|
T23
|
DNP
|
Charl Schwartzel
|
$7,200
|
T24
|
T7
|
T31
|
T4
|
T21
|
Brandan Steele
|
$6,900
|
T24
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Adam Hadwin
|
$6,900
|
T5
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Johnny Vegas
|
$6,800
|
T17
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
