Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Fantasy Golf: The Farmers Insurance Open Preview

Knowing that the Farmers Insurance Open starts a day early this week, my goal was to get a jump on the preview over the weekend but then the greatest four game stretch in NFL playoff history rose-up and consumed me like a damn leviathan. The perfect storm of shitty local weather, no conflicting obligations and the fact that my liver was still in a walking boot from the previous week's extracurriculars meant that I was easy prey for my couch and pretty much everything from Safeway Aisle 7 with the words "crisp", "crunch" or "cheez" in it (yes "cheez" . . . you know what I'm talking about).

And the outcomes were spectacular starting with the Bengals dismissing the Titans who have been getting owned in the playoffs by the AFC North since the days of Ray Lewis and Eddie George. The AFC South? As a #1 seed? Pfffft.

Then it was the Packers' turn to gag thereby fulfilling Aaron Rodgerss threat to boycott the Super Bowl. Again. Worth noting that the worst Jeopardy guest host is now 7-9 in the playoffs since his lone Super Bowl appearance in 2010. But remember it's a supporting cast issue which I guess explains why Tom Brady is 21-7 with comparable talent during the same stretch?  

And that brings us to Sunday when we had everything from comically bad coaching and secondary play to late game heroics by Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford. Seriously, you know something cosmic is happening when Matthew Stafford makes two clutch throws to lead his team to the NFC Championship game. Then again, on the list of athletes who have paid their karmic dues, I think only Dan Jansen ranks higher so maybe he was due. 

Speaking of karmic dues, the entire city of Buffalo has to be built on a sacred burial ground. I've never been there and hope it stays that way but by all accounts they are one of the most loyal fan bases in the league. And they live in Buffalo. Come on universe. How many folding tables must these people destroy before you throw them a bone?

TWEET OF THE WEEK

There are any number of Aaron Rodgers dunk tweets I could go with here but instead I've decided to share a public service announcement. Allow me to preface it by explaining what a gym locker room conversation should look like:

Me:         Hey Steve how you been?
Steve:     Pretty good Ronny. How're the kids?
Me:         You know. Typical pain in the ass but all good.
Steve:     I hear that.
Me:         We should play golf soon.
Steve:     Absolutely.

The End (Note: Steve and I will never actually play golf but that's not the point)

That took thirty seconds. Tops. And we're done. Not like the two yo-yo's I encountered on Sunday who were into their eighth minute covering everything from high school wrestling to ballroom dance classes with their wives. JFC guys get a room at the Timonium Red Roof Inn+ already.

Anyway, here is your rule of thumb.


GOLF ANALYSIS BY THE DASHBOARD LIGHT*

If you remove the stupid Talor Gooch advice, last week's picks really weren't that bad in light of a leaderboard that didn't exactly radiate star power. And I was "this" close to making Hudson Swafford my sleeper before telling myself that I needed to start picking some random young guys like Dylan Wu. Apparently "picking some random" anything is not an effective gambling strategy.

We're going to get very chalky this week because (a) three weeks of failure in pursuit of creativity are enough, and (b) this is one of the chalkiest events on Tour. Even with that mindset, I tried to talk myself out of Jon Rahm but that would just be downright cockamamie. In addition to his sparkling record here the last five years, he won the 2021 U.S. Open on one of these courses (I think it was the blue one).

After Rahm it gets a little tricky. Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama are very enticing but sometimes you've got to keep your eyes down the buffet and, in this case, there are crabcakes and tater tots past the chicken fingers so we're going to save room on the plate for Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau and Patrick Reed. Finau and Reed are established members of the Torrey Pines inner circle and Zalatoris shows all the signs of gaining entry. In other words, he hits golf ball real good. 

You can't get more ball striker chalky than Ryan Palmer and Keegan Bradley who have both had a lot of success here and Tom Hoge gets a very slight nod over Brandt Snedeker (more on him later) thanks to his runner-up last week. Cameron Davis is going to be the guy I pick every single tournament until the week before he wins again so keep your eye on that. 

And I'm not making the same mistake on my sleeper pick no matter how much I'm distracted by Doug Ghim and Lee Hodges like a car honking in the middle of my backswing . . . seven miles away.

One and Done Pick: Jon Rahm
Believe it or not, I somehow managed
not to screw-up this pick last year.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Will Zalatoris

Sleeper Pick: Patton Kizzire

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Jon Rahm

$11,200

Will Zalatoris

$9,200

Tony Finau

$9,100

Patrick Reed

$8,700

Ryan Palmer

$8,100

Keegan Bradley

$7,900

Tom Hoge

$7,500

Cameron Davis

$7,300

Wyndham Clark

$7,200

Patton Kizzire

$6,800


This is getting tragically ridiculous. Louie Anderson performed at this same damn HBO young comedian showcase with Bob Saget and Sam Kinison and he also crushed it. We need to get Rita Rudner a bodyguard.  

                                   THE LOUIS ANDERSON MEMORIAL
                                 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

The likes of Jason Day, Gary Woodland, Luke List and Brandt Snedeker are all worth a look. Day and Sneds have each won here twice since 2012. You know the risks with those guys, especially in the middle of a pandemic (oh boy), but the upside of both is quite tantalizing.  

 

DK Price

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

Jon Rahm

$11,200

T7

2nd

T5

T29

1st

Justin Thomas

$10,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$10,600

T53

T45

T3

T12

T33

Dustin Johnson

$10,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Xander Schauffele

$10,100

T2

MC

T25

MC

MC

Daniel Berger

$10,000

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

MC

B. DeChambeau

$9,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

Sam Burns

$9,700

T18

T49

T40

MC

DNP

Brooks Koepka

$9,600

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Scottie Scheffler

$9,500

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$9,400

MC

T55

T35

DNP

DNP

Sungjae Im

$9,300

T32

T36

T52

DNP

DNP

Will Zalatoris

$9,200

T7

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

Tony Finau

$9,100

T2

T6

T13

T6

T4

Marc Leishman

$9,000

T18

1st

T43

T8

T20

Talor Gooch

$8,900

T48

T36

T3

T51

DNP

Corey Conners

$8,800

T37

DNP

DNP

T29

DNP

Patrick Reed

$8,700

1st

T6

T13

T23

DNP

Matthew Wolff

$8,500

W/D

T21

DNP

DNP

DNP

Max Homa

$8,400

T18

T9

DNP

DNP

MC

C. Bezuidenhout

$8,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Maverick McNealy

$8,200

MC

15th

DNP

T29

DNP

Ryan Palmer

$8,100

T2

T21

T13

T2

DNP

Justin Rose

$7,900

DNP

MC

1st

T8

T4

Keegan Bradley

$7,900

DNP

T16

T35

5th

T4

Billy Horschel

$7,800

MC

T68

8th

T54

T64

Si Woo Kim

$7,800

MC

DNP

T29

T35

W/D

Joaquin Niemann

$7,700

DNP

T49

T72

DNP

DNP

Lanto Griffin

$7,700

T7

MC

DNP

T12

DNP

Mackenzie Hughes

$7,700

MC

MC

T29

MC

T54

Cameron Tringale

$7,600

T18

T55

MC

DNP

73rd

Francesco Molinari

$7,600

T10

MC

DNP

T45

T14

Luke List

$7,600

T10

T36

T40

T12

MC

Aaron Wise

$7,500

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

T71

Alex Noren

$7,500

T37

DNP

MC

T2

DNP

Jason Day

$7,500

MC

T16

T5

1st

MC

Tom Hoge

$7,500

MC

5th

MC

T12

DNP

Brandt Snedeker

$7,400

T32

T3

T62

T45

T9

Jhonattan Vegas

$7,400

MC

T30

MC

MC

T28

Keith Mitchell

$7,400

MC

MC

MC

T63

DNP

Mito Pereira

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Hadwin

$7,300

T18

DNP

DNP

T35

T49

Cameron Davis

$7,300

T32

T36

T57

T58

DNP

Carlos Ortiz

$7,300

T29

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Gary Woodland

$7,300

T48

MC

T9

T12

T20

Kevin Streelman

$7,300

T37

T45

MC

T29

T67

Hudson Swafford

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Joel Dahmen

$7,200

MC

T55

T9

MC

DNP

Matt Jones

$7,200

T48

T73

T13

MC

DNP

Rickie Fowler

$7,200

T53

MC

T66

MC

MC

Wyndham Clark

$7,200

T32

MC

T35

DNP

DNP

Alex Smalley

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Champ

$7,100

MC

T16

MC

DNP

DNP

Charley Hoffman

$7,100

W/D

T9

MC

T35

T54

K.H. Lee

$7,100

MC

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Michael Thompson

$7,100

DNP

MC

T13

MC

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$7,100

MC

T9

MC

MC

T4

Aaron Rai

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Doug Ghim

$7,000

T37

MC

T20

DNP

DNP

Lee Hodges

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Chez Reavie

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sebastian Munoz

$7,000

DNP

MC

T72

DNP

T54

Dylan Frittelli

$6,900

T53

T73

MC

DNP

DNP

Kyle Stanley

$6,900

T18

MC

MC

T51

T14

Patton Kizzire

$6,800

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

MC

Emiliano Grillo

$6,700

MC

MC

T52

T12

T33

Harry Higgs

$6,700

T65

T9

DNP

DNP

DNP

Henrik Norlander

$6,700

T2

MC

DNP

DNP

MC

Rory Sabbatini

$6,700

T10

T36

T70

T20

T14

Scott Stallings

$6,700

MC

T49

T43

MC

MC


Footnote

* Just because Meatloaf revealed himself to be a dope later in life does not take away from the fact that he co-created arguably the worst dive bar sing along song of all-time. So we should celebrate that. And here's a fun fact. Karla DeVito who entranced many a youth in the early days of MTV was not the singer on the album. She just donned the heavy makeup and white leotard for the video. And here's another fun fact. She's married to Robby Benson. Yes, THIS Robby Benson

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