Fantasy Golf: The British Open Preview

For those tuning-in to the Fantasy Golf Report for the first time, I have to warn you that it usually starts with a preamble that ranges from self-deprecating to self-aggrandizing before getting into the "expert" analysis. Sometimes I get into a bit of a flow on this part and really put the "ramble" into "preamble." Today is one of those days so please bear with me. 

On Saturday mornings I play basketball with a group of guys who've been "running" together for about twenty-five years. Normally we have about thirteen to fourteen players so you take a game or two off and can still barely get out of your seat after breakfast at the deli. 

This week, however, we only had eight because it gets harder to rally guys to run around a gym with no air conditioning as the temps climb towards 100 and the ages climb towards 60. We actually only had six but got up to eight thanks to a couple of subs including a big guy named Marco who had a smooth Eastern European style game and the accent to go with it. I almost started calling him The Joker (who is Serbian) but then remembered that calling a Croatian a Serbian or vice versa could end-up being the last mistake you ever make so ESPN's 30 for 30 series may have saved my life that day. 

We ran 4v4 for ninety minutes and, despite having Marco on our squad, one of my other teammates decided to start shooting with the discretion of J.R. Smith and the effectiveness of Phillip Seymour Hoffman. After losing the first two games, I reconfigured the offense so that it no longer involved him touching the ball which can get a little awkward in a 4v4 scenario but he brought it upon himself. There's a code and if you don't know it, we can't really help you. Two wins later and vindication was mine. 

Not anticipating the CrossFit workout I was going to get that morning, I had previously agreed to play an interclub golf match a couple hours later. On top of that and after months of struggle with my swing, I had finally relented the day before and taken a lesson. So I rode into competition on three Bud Lights, two dead legs and one swing surrounded by scaffolding and caution tape. 

My partner for golf was a nice fellow with whom I had never played before and, based on his attempts at helping me manage my emotions, no one had adequately prepared him for the experience of playing with me under adverse conditions. Instead of going into specifics from that round, allow me to offer a few guidelines for future partners:

• This first one is by far the most important. It is a generally accepted principle of sports psychology that athletes perform better when they practice positive self-talk. Let's say for the sake of argument that applies to 95% of all competitors which leaves 5% of us who need to repeatedly tell ourselves "you fucking suck." What the other 95% don't understand is that what motivates us is proving that voice wrong. And I am way out at the far end of that 5% . . . no further than that . . . keep going.*

• If I'm in trouble off the tee and you say "I've got this", then you better damn well have this. Don't say it every time unless you plan on being the most clutch mutherfucker walking the streets and I'm guessing you’re not or we wouldn't have been paired in this half-ass match together. 

• I will not avoid uncomfortable interactions with our opponents. I rarely if ever talk trash but, if you start getting squirrely with the rules or douchy with the etiquette, it's going to get weird. Especially if I'm drunk so watch your ass after we make the turn.   

So if you repeatedly try to console me with "don't worry about it" or "don't sweat it", I will tell you to stop. Yes that moment will be awkward but it will also be in the best interest of the team. 

For the record, we won the match on 17. I told my partner to stop trying to lift my spirits on 8, he made a clutch par on 9 and the uncomfortable interaction with our opponents occurred on 10. See? Just stick to the script and everything will workout just fine.   

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Hoping this is still available when I drive my son back to school in Memphis next month because I've been craving a straight Bud Light for like two years now. 

pic.twitter.com/sIgwUgps8n

— Sami Gold 🥥🌴 (@souljagoytellem) July 15, 2024

GOLF ANALYSIS

I am a sucker for a sports fairy tale so I can't escape the feeling that Rory is going to win. He has emerged as one of my all-time favorite athletes and his recent heartbreaks have only strengthened our bond and made him more relatable. I know another LIV Golf dickhead is going to ruin it this week so I've hedged against that in my picks but hey, a man can still dream. 

If you're picking one guy and you've used-up most of your resources by now, it feels like you have to go LIV because: (a) you've got three or four of the top ten favorites at your disposal and, (b) this is your last chance to use one unless you're in some really weird ass league with Greg Norman or a Saudi prince. 

My first instinct was Tyrrell Hatton. The pros are that he just won the LIV event by 6 shots, he finished T5 the last time the Open was played at Royal Troon and he's got a great pairing with Rory and Max Homa in the morning on Thursday. The con is that he's at best a poor man's Lee Westwood with a very spotty record in the majors for a player of his caliber. 

Then I switched to Jon Rahm but then I watched his press conference and I don't think I've ever seen a man exude less confidence. After seeing that I'd say whatever his realistic goals were for this week should be lowered to just not killing a spectator.    

It's hard to ignore Bryson DeChambeau's major record this year and the fact is that, if he's going to win a Claret Jug, this is the most likely place for him to do it. But unlike Pinehurst, an Open course will not forgive wayward drives with lies from which you can play controllable shots. At least I hope not.

Brooks Koepka is intriguing because he has four top tens in his last seven Opens and you know the rise of DeChambeau is making his skin crawl. Unfortunately, he totally screwed me at the U.S. Open so he's still beyond FGR consideration. That pretty much leaves Cam Smith and Joaquin Niemann who don't really interest me but always reliable Louis Oosthuizen does at his price so he makes the list as a sleeper. 

If I ultimately decide that I can't stomach a LIV pick (and that feeling is growing with each paragraph), then I'm taking a very long hard look at Cameron Young who has played in two Opens with a runner-up and a T8 to show for it. He also comes in off T9 and T6 finishes in his last two starts. Frankly I find his +6000 odds astonishing if not insulting.    

And that brings us to one Jordan Alexander Spieth, winner of the 2017 Open Championship and owner of four other top tens including a runner-up in 2021. To call his season to date mediocre would be generous and he just missed the cut at the Scottish Open but there's something about this event that brings-out the best in him even when he's not at his best. I think it's time to stop typing before I talk myself into something I might regret. 

So where does that leave us? I think I've talked myself out of every LIV guy (which alleviated that developing pain in my gut area). Rory isn't available and neither are Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland so it appears that all paths now lead to . . . 

One and Done Pick: Cameron Young

This was already starting to make 
a lot of sense after half a bottle
of wine on a Tuesday night.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Tyrrell Hatton  

Sleeper Pick: Rasmus Hojgaard

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy	$11,400
Collin Morikawa	$9,900
Viktor Hovland	$9,700
Tyrrell Hatton	$9,500
Tony Finau	$8,700
Jordan Spieth	$7,900
Cameron Young	$7,500
Louis Oosthuizen	$6,800
Rasmus Hojgaard	$6,500
Matteo Manassero	$5,400

Footnote

* By way of example, I was once playing a doubles tennis match with a superior partner and against superior opponents who recognized my dogshit backhand and were good enough to exploit it. After losing four straight deuce points only to have my partner hand me another chance each time, he finally stopped talking to me and wouldn't even look at me which was fine because I was too busy completely eviscerating myself to really notice. I smoked the next backhand return down the middle for a winner and then we cruised to a mostly silent victory after which his wife who had been watching said, "well thank god you finally stopped trying to encourage him."    

                                     THE SHUT YOUR PIE HOLE MONTY

                                    HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

The glaring omissions from above would be Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Tiger Woods. It doesn't feel like this is the year for the first two but thanks to Colin Montgomerie's unique gift for only saying things that end-up confirming he's a jackass, Tiger now has a bit more motivation to at least make the cut and I like his chances. 

	DK Price	2023	2022	2021	2019	2018
Scottie Scheffler	$12,800	T23	T28	T8	DNP	DNP
Bryson DeChambeau	$11,500	T60	T8	T33	MC	T51
Rory McIlroy	$11,400	T6	3rd	T46	MC	T2
Xander Schauffele	$11,200	T17	T15	T26	T41	T2
Jon Rahm	$10,400	T2	T34	T3	T11	MC
Ludvig Aberg	$10,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Collin Morikawa	$9,900	MC	MC	1st	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$9,700	T13	T4	T12	DNP	DNP
Tyrrell Hatton	$9,500	T20	T11	MC	T6	T51
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,300	T10	T4	T33	2nd	T12
Patrick Cantlay	$9,100	T33	T8	MC	T41	T12
Brooks Koepka	$9,000	T64	MC	T6	T4	T39
Cameron Smith	$8,900	T33	1st	T33	T20	78th
Tony Finau	$8,700	MC	T28	T19	3rd	T9
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,500	T13	T68	DNP	MC	MC
Tom Kim	$8,300	T2	T47	DNP	DNP	DNP
Shane Lowry	$8,200	MC	T21	T12	1st	MC
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,100	T41	T21	T26	T20	MC
Wyndham Clark	$8,000	T33	T76	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$7,900	T23	T8	2nd	T20	T9
Joaquin Niemann	$7,800	MC	T53	T59	MC	DNP
Robert MacIntyre	$7,700	T71	T34	T8	T6	DNP
Brian Harman	$7,600	1st	T6	T19	MC	MC
Cameron Young	$7,500	T8	2nd	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Thomas	$7,400	MC	T53	T40	T11	MC
Min Woo Lee	$7,400	T41	T21	MC	DNP	DNP
Max Homa	$7,300	T10	MC	T40	DNP	DNP
Corey Conners	$7,300	T52	T28	T15	MC	DNP
Sam Burns	$7,200	MC	T42	T76	DNP	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$7,200	MC	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP
Will Zalatoris	$7,200	DNP	T28	W/D	DNP	DNP
Dustin Johnson	$7,100	MC	T6	T8	T51	MC
Sepp Straka	$7,100	T2	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Akshay Bhatia	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matthieu Pavon	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$6,900	T20	T81	DNP	MC	DNP
Justin Rose	$6,900	MC	DNP	T46	T20	T2
Jason Day	$6,900	T2	DNP	MC	MC	T17
Davis Thompson	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ryan Fox	$6,800	T52	MC	T67	T16	T39
Si Woo Kim	$6,800	MC	T15	DNP	MC	T67
Louis Oosthuizen	$6,800	T23	MC	T3	T20	T28
Adam Scott	$6,700	T33	T15	T46	MC	T17
Russell Henley	$6,700	MC	T62	MC	DNP	MC
Nicolai Hojgaard	$6,700	T23	T53	DNP	DNP	MC
Byeong Hun An	$6,700	T23	DNP	T26	T32	T51
Dean Burmester	$6,700	DNP	T11	T40	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$6,600	T23	DNP	T53	T6	T28
Keegan Bradley	$6,600	MC	MC	MC	MC	79th
Abraham Ancer	$6,600	T49	T11	T59	MC	MC
C. Bezuidenhout	$6,600	T49	T68	T53	MC	DNP
Adrian Meronk	$6,500	T23	T42	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rasmus Hojgaard	$6,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$6,500	MC	T21	T53	MC	DNP
Jordan Smith	$6,500	T41	T47	DNP	DNP	MC
Denny McCarthy	$6,400	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
J.T. Poston	$6,400	T41	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$6,400	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$6,300	MC	MC	T46	DNP	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$6,300	T60	T72	MC	MC	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$6,300	DNP	DNP	MC	T57	DNP
Eric Cole	$6,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Victor Perez	$6,200	T41	T34	MC	DNP	DNP
Thor Olesen	$6,200	MC	DNP	DNP	T57	T12
Henrik Stenson	$6,200	T13	MC	MC	T20	T35
Tiger Woods	$6,200	DNP	MC	DNP	MC	T6
Sam Horsefield	$6,200	DNP	DNP	T67	MC	DNP
Sebastian Soderberg	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,100	MC	T42	MC	DNP	DNP
Phil Mickelson	$6,100	MC	MC	MC	MC	T24
Matthew Wallace	$6,100	MC	DNP	T40	T51	MC
Emiliano Grillo	$6,000	T6	MC	T12	MC	MC
Padraig Harrington	$6,000	T64	MC	72nd	MC	MC
Lucas Glover	$6,000	DNP	DNP	MC	T20	DNP
Maverick McNealy	$6,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$5,900	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brendon Todd	$5,900	T49	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$5,900	DNP	MC	T6	DNP	DNP
Shubankar Sharma	$5,900	T8	DNP	DNP	T51	T51
Ben Griffin	$5,900	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$5,700	T55	MC	MC	MC	T67
Francesco Molinari	$5,500	MC	T15	MC	T11	1st
Zach Johnson	$5,500	T55	MC	DNP	MC	T17
Matteo Manassero	$5,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Ernie Els	$5,100	MC	MC	MC	T32	MC
Darren Clarke	$5,000	MC	MC	MC	MC	MC
John Daly	$5,000	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	MC

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