Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Fantasy Golf: Charles Schwab Challenge Preview

So we're back to work here at FGR Command Central with a skeletal crew (which is just me dressed as a member of the Cobra Kai at Halloween). We've finished Clorox wiping the shit out of our refrigerator sized super computer known affectionately as "Feherty's Ego" and, in addition to making sure it's virus free, we've been busy re-writing the algorithms and doing extra research on things like "what are algorithms?" and "what kind of wine pairs well with Frosted Flakes?" and "wait, what are algorithms again?" so that our predictions account for the unprecedented ten week layoff during what is normally a peak stretch of the season. 

We actually had to go back and review The Players Championship Preview to remember what random format we had settled-on for this year and to create a cheap reason to get people to click on the link for it. It also gave us an opportunity to bask in the glory of the last picks we made before life as we know it stopped and we know this from the line "Let us take an extra moment to bask in the glory of those picks . . ." Now we need to pick-up where we left off and overcome that age old maxim that nothing kills momentum like a slow-rolling pandemic that no one saw coming like a guy trying to outrun a steamroller . . . JUST GET OUT OF THE ROAD MAN!!!! 

But first, this . . .  

TWEET OF THE WEEK FROM SEVEN WEEKS AGO


So many interesting topics we could go with here based on current events but I promised myself that this preview would be all about golf and fun and what's more fun than the thought of football in the fall in front of socially distanced crowds comprised only of suite owners and people who can afford $1,000 tickets for one of the 8,000 seats in the stadium (sorry, couldn't help myself) . . . 


RUSTY GOLF ANALYSIS . . . QUITE RUSTY

The fundamental questions we have to ask ourselves and the players this week are (a) "who's ready?" and (b) "who is going to play like they give a shit?" Take Dustin Johnson for example. The last time we saw him at Seminole he played like he was on the 6th place team in the final nine-hole match of the Winged Foot flight and his guest just spent three days complaining about the food, the free shirt and his tennis elbow. (For the record, I have never complained about my tennis elbow but for fuck's sake don't skimp on the shrimp and give us a decent shirt). I'm thinking that DJ is treating this like a two to four day practice round and I kind of have a feeling that Rory, JT and Brooks may have a similar mindset.


So who will be the anti-DJ be this week? Who will show-up ready to play with a little fire in his belly? The obvious answer would be the forgotten man Jordan Spieth who had slipped to 56th in the world before we all started hiding in bunkers. No one needed the X-Men to freeze the golf world for ten weeks more than he did so that he could work on this game while not having to display the tragic condition of it in tournaments while racking-up missed cuts and finishes outside the top 50. And he couldn't have asked for a better course to come back to than Colonial C.C. where he has a win, two runner-ups and a tie for 8th since 2015. I know players just up and lose it but I don't think he's that guy. Of course I thought Ian Baker-Finch was going to be better than Nick Faldo so make of that assessment what you will.  

Who else? Well Jon Rahm is arguably the best player in the world and finished top five here in 2017 and 2018 so he's our headliner. Webb Simpson has been on a ridiculous roll since the WGC-FeDex St. Jude Invitational last July and also has two top fives in his last three trips here so he's our number two (hahahaha you just called Webb a poop). Please forgive me as I've been quarantined with two teenage boys and my increasingly immature self. The over/under on poop jokes in this preview was actually 2.5. Of course we're not done yet.   

This is also a nice spot for the young dudes who may have been a bit more motivated to prepare for a regular Tour event than their well-heeled private jetting brethren. Sungjae Im has two wins and two 3rd place finishes in his last twelve tournaments, Collin Morikawa still hasn't missed a cut on Tour and Max Homa is really funny on Twitter. 

Max reminds me of "Hi and Lois"
because he makes me laugh.
One and Done Pick: Jordan Spieth

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jon Rahm


Sleeper Pick: Corey Connors


DraftKings Top Ten Values


Jon Rahm
$11,000
Webb Simpson
$9,800
Sungjae Im
$9,300
Collin Morikawa
$9,100
Jordan Spieth
$8,000
Kevin Na
$7,600
Max Homa
$7,500
Joaquin Niemann
$7,400
Corey Connors
$7,100
Scott Piercy
$6,800

Generally we try to pare-down the historical performance chart and separate the wheat from the chaff (inexplicable farmer talk) with no positive track record on the course and no sign that they've got a top twenty in them but this is an odd week so we're throwing almost everyone in there to let you make your own choices. Two guys I like for no real good reason are Scottie Scheffler and Harry Higgs. They also strike me as two guys I'd like to get hammered with and wake-up on a random couch with a friend's dog sleeping on my feet which absolutely has not happened to me more than once during the pandemic.  

                                      THE WHERE'S WALDO FAUCI 
                                HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Rory McIlroy
$11,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jon Rahm
$11,000
MC
T5
T2
DNP
DNP
Justin Thomas
$10,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
B. DeChambeau
$10,100
MC
T42
MC
MC
DNP
Webb Simpson
$9,800
DNP
MC
5th
T3
DNP
Brooks Koepka
$9,700
DNP
2nd*
DNP
DNP
DNP
Xander Schauffele
$9,600
MC
MC
T48
DNP
DNP
Dustin Johnson
$9,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Rickie Fowler
$9,400
MC
T14
DNP
DNP
DNP
Sungjae Im
$9,300
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patrick Reed
$9,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
T15
T33
Collin Morikawa
$9,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Justin Rose
$9,000
T58
1st
DNP
DNP
DNP
Marc Leishman
$8,900
DNP
DNP
T34
T13
T27
Gary Woodland
$8,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tony Finau
$8,700
2nd
DNP
T29
T39
T19
Shane Lowry
$8,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matt Kuchar
$8,500
DNP
T32
T12
DNP
DNP
Scottie Scheffler
$8,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jason Day
$8,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matthew Fitzpatrick
$8,200
T64
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Louis Oosthuizen
$8,100
DNP
T5
DNP
MC
W/D
Jordan Spieth
$8,000
T8
T32
T2
1st
T2
Sergio Garcia
$8,000
DNP
DNP
T12
DNP
DNP
Viktor Hovland
$7,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Daniel Berger
$7,700
T53
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
Kevin Kisner
$7,600
MC
T52
1ST
T10
T5
Kevin Na
$7,600
1st
4th
DNP
T42
T10
Harris English
$7,500
DNP
T20
T29
2nd
DNP
Joel Dahmen
$7,500
MC
T20
DNP
DNP
DNP
Max Homa
$7,500
T27
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
Ben An
$7,400
68th
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Billy Horschel
$7,400
T19
DNP
T34
DNP
DNP
Joaquin Niemann
$7,400
T31
T8
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matthew Wolf
$7,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Ryan Palmer
$7,400
T6
MC
T70
T3
MC
Abraham Ancer
$7,300
T58
T52
DNP
DNP
DNP
Adam Hadwin
$7,300
DNP
T52
T53
T22
T5
Cameron Smith
$7,300
DNP
DNP
MC
DNP
DNP
Ian Poulter
$7,300
T70
DNP
DNP
MC
T5
Phil Mickelson
$7,300
DNP
DNP
T29
DNP
DNP
Bubba Watson
$7,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Danny Lee
$7,200
T48
T14
6th
T22
T10
Jason Kokrak
$7,200
DNP
T32
MC
T55
MC
Rory Sabbatini
$7,200
T6
T20
MC
DNP
T10
Russell Knox
$7,200
T8
T20
DNP
DNP
T24
Branden Grace
$7,100
T53
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brendan Steele
$7,100
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Chez Reavie
$7,100
MC
MC
T48
MC
DNP
Corey Connors
$7,100
T31
T8
DNP
DNP
DNP
Emiliano Grillo
$7,100
T19
3rd
T24
T55
DNP
Erik Van Rooyen
$7,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jim Furyk
$7,100
T13
T66
DNP
MC
DNP
Keegan Bradley
$7,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
DNP
Charley Hoffman
$7,000
T13
T52
T24
T42
T10
Graeme McDowell
$7,000
73rd
DNP
T29
DNP
DNP
Harry Higgs
$7,000
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
J.T. Poston
$7,000
MC
T20
T41
DNP
DNP
Jason Dufner
$7,000
T40
MC
MC
T6
T43
Charles Howell, III
$6,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Harold Varner, III
$6,900
DNP
DNP
MC
DNP
DNP
Kevin Streelman
$6,900
T31
76th
T18
MC
T58
Brendon Todd
$6,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
T43
Bud Cauley
$6,800
MC
DNP
T41
DNP
DNP
C.T. Pan
$6,800
T3
T20
MC
DNP
DNP
Scott Piercy
$6,800
T19
MC
T7
T67
T43
Zach Johnson
$6,800
MC
MC
T63
T17
T19
Jimmy Walker
$6,700
T19
T20
DNP
T29
T65
Kevin Tway
$6,700
T19
T5
T18
DNP
DNP
Beau Hossler
$6,600
T40
T64
MC
DNP
DNP
Vaughn Taylor
$6,600
T58
T20
T18
T55
DNP
Pat Perez
$6,500
W/D
T42
MC
DNP
T5

* Note that I originally had Brooks Koepka as a DNP in 2018 but, not only did he play, he finished 2nd. This information probably would've been more useful if the tournament hadn't started 40 minutes ago.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

No comments: