Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Fantasy Golf: The Farmers Insurance Open Preview

A couple times per year the PGA Tour throws me a Wednesday start curveball that leaves me stupefied at the plate and this is one of those times. That inevitably leaves me scrambling for some content on a Tuesday night after a real workday so I do what any seasoned writer would. I pour a couple cheap glasses of wine and turn on the TGL for some inspiration because anything I write has to be more entertaining than that awkward ham handed production.

Further complicating this evening's effort was the fact that I had to stop on the way home to buy some skis and boots. You see skiing is one of the few activities a dad can do with this teenage daughter and only feel like he's embarrassing her about half the time so I do it despite having a lower body build that is way more suited to pursuits like golf and bird watching. 

Like most men, my favorite parts of shopping are paying and leaving so I was dreading the experience of having to buy something that: (a) I know nothing about, and (b) requires a fitting component involving another person. I do, however, think I helped shorten the process when the nice lady asked me what I was looking for most in a ski and and said "safety." 

She brought out a pair of plain black boots that fit well meaning that they were nearly impossible to put on and caused my feet to cry out in pain. Just like that we were only five minutes in and halfway home. Then she pushed her luck and brought out two sets of skis but then had the savvy to explain the difference just long enough for me to get bored and choose the more expensive ones. Ultimately it was a master class in handling an impatient moron as I was out of her life in under fifteen minutes.  

WORK EXCHANGE OF THE WEEK

Reminder that all other characters are played by Bob or Jane and that these are very real if slightly embellished stories.  

Bob: Hey I need to run this excavating contractor we want to hire by you.

Me: What's the issue? 

Bob: Their safety manual is only five pages long.

Me: That seems a little thin.

Bob: . . . and two pages covers animals in the workplace.

Me: What kind of animals?

Bob: Mostly service animals.

Me: You mean like seeing eye dogs?

Bob: Yeah I guess so.

Me: So we want to hire someone who digs big holes in the ground and uses enough seeing eye dogs that they have a policy for it?

Bob: Looks that way.

Me: I see what you did there. 

GOLF ANALYSIS

My remorse for the late post is somewhat tempered by the fact that this tournament has now been decimated by golf's dubious effort to "grow the game." If we were to apply the old Tringale Rule to this field, I'm pretty sure it would generate a rating of "Sucks" which is a shame considering this used to be the first full gathering of great players we got to watch without having to listen to Mark Rolfing. 

I'm pretty sure I've been fixated on Will Zalatoris at Torrey Pines since his runner-up in 2022. He just feels like a guy who should start winning about once a year and this is one of the places he should do it. Now of course I've painted myself into the corner of having to pick him because, if I don't and he wins, everyone who doesn't read this will wonder why I never smile anymore. And yes I have smiled before. Somewhere I think there's a picture of it from before I had kids. 

We rely pretty heavily on the Historical Performance Chart for the rest of the picks because this is about as much of a course for certain horses as you're going to find all year. Add in the fact that last year was a bit of an anomaly and we should be looking at a reversion to the mean this week. I have no idea if that makes sense but you get the point.

Place

Player

Odds

Winner

Will Zalatoris

+2200

Top 5

Maverick McNealy

+550

Top 10

Aaron Rai

+400

Top 10

Stephan Jaeger

+500

Top 20

Joseph Bramlett

+360


Top 20 honorable mention goes to Taylor Montgomery who has two such finishes here in his last three trips. I'm going to parlay the shit out of him and Joseph Bramlett with guys like Sungjae Im and Maverick McNealy because why just win a +700 bet when you can lose a +1427 bet?

One and Done Pick: Will Zalatoris
Going with my spindly
legged brother this week.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Ludvig Aberg 

Sleeper Pick: Joseph Bramlett 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Ludvig Aberg

$10,800

Sungjae Im

$10,000

Will Zalatoris

$9,500

Maverick McNealy

$8,900

Aaron Rai

$8,300

Stephan Jaeger

$7,800

Justin Rose

$7,600

Justin Lower

$7,300

Joseph Bramlett

$6,900

Taylor Montgomery

$6,500


This week's chart is named in honor of Ravens' offensive coordinator Todd Monken. It's going to be a big week for Todd here at the FGR as the man deserves his due.

                                   THE TODD MONKEN RED ZONE
                               HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

Despite the less than stellar field, there's still a lot of color on the board next to intriguing options not mentioned above like Max Homa, Beau Hossler, Patrick Rodgers and Luke List. Aaaaand now I'm rethinking everything.  

 

DK Price

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Ludvig Aberg

$10,800

T9

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$10,700

T13

T9

T30

T53

T45

Tony Finau

$10,200

T6

T9

MC

T2

T6

Sungjae Im

$10,000

MC

T4

T6

T32

T36

Keegan Bradley

$9,900

T43

2nd

T65

DNP

T16

Max Greyserman

$9,700

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Will Zalatoris

$9,500

T13

MC

2nd

T7

DNP

Jason Day

$9,300

MC

T7

T3

MC

T16

Sahith Theegala

$9,100

T64

T4

T25

DNP

DNP

Shane Lowry

$9,000

T25

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Maverick McNealy

$8,900

T37

T31

T30

MC

15th

Taylor Pendrith

$8,800

T9

T60

T16

DNP

DNP

Kurt Kitayama

$8,700

DNP

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Max Homa

$8,600

T13

1st

MC

T18

T9

Luke Clanton

$8,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Si Woo Kim

$8,400

DNP

T25

T11

MC

DNP

Aaron Rai

$8,300

T33

52nd

T6

DNP

DNP

Akshay Bhatia (O)

$8,200

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ben Griffin

$8,100

MC

T31

DNP

DNP

DNP

Beau Hossler

$8,000

T6

MC

MC

MC

T9

Harry Hall (O)

$8,000

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

MC

J.J. Spaun

$7,900

MC

MC

T34

MC

T30

Thomas Detry

$7,900

T20

T37

DNP

DNP

DNP

Mark Hubbard

$7,800

T20

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Stephen Jaeger

$7,800

T3

T53

MC

DNP

DNP

Austin Eckroat

$7,700

T37

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Doug Ghim

$7,700

T13

MC

T34

T37

MC

Daniel Berger

$7,600

MC

DNP

T20

DNP

DNP

Justin Rose

$7,600

T56

T18

T6

DNP

MC

Niklas Moller

$7,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Mac Meissner

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Wallace

$7,500

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Fishburn

$7,500

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$7,500

T9

MC

T62

MC

T9

Charley Hoffman

$7,400

T56

MC

DNP

W/D

T9

Eric Cole

$7,400

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jhonattan Vegas

$7,400

MC

T25

T39

MC

T30

M. Thorbjornsen

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Alex Smalley

$7,300

MC

T37

T56

DNP

DNP

Harris English

$7,300

T64

MC

DNP

DNP

T71

Justin Lower

$7,300

T43

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Samuel Stevens

$7,300

T43

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

Taylor Moore

$7,300

T70

T11

MC

DNP

DNP

Gary Woodland

$7,200

MC

T62

T39

T48

MC

Matthieu Pavon

$7,200

1st

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Michael Kim

$7,200

T37

T44

DNP

T53

DNP

Rico Hoey

$7,200

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Thriston Lawrence

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Victor Perez

$7,200

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Carson Young

$7,100

T56

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Frankie Capan

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jackson Koivun

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jesper Svensson

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Roy

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Yu

$7,100

T6

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Max McGreevy

$7,100

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Adam Svensson

$7,000

MC

MC

79th

DNP

DNP

Andrew Novak

$7,000

MC

T69

T70

DNP

DNP

Andrew Putnam

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Henrik Norlander

$7,000

DNP

MC

MC

T2

MC

Jacob Bridgeman

$7,000

T70

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Joe Highsmith

$7,000

T33

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Lee Hodges

$7,000

MC

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Ryan Gerard

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Schenk

$6,900

T25

T20

T56

MC

DNP

Erik Van Rooyan

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

Joseph Bramlett

$6,900

T25

T13

T67

T18

T45

Lanto Griffin

$6,900

T64

T37

T30

T7

MC

Luke List

$6,800

T50

T25

1st

T10

T36

Ryo Hisatune

$6,800

T33

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Ryder

$6,800

MC

T4

MC

T10

MC

Emiliano Grillo

$6,700

T20

T44

MC

MC

MC

Greyson Sigg

$6,700

MC

DNP

T34

MC

DNP

Jake Knapp

$6,700

T3

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nate Lashley

$6,700

T3

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Joel Dahmen

$6,600

MC

DNP

MC

MC

T55

Nick Hardy

$6,600

T37

T44

MC

DNP

DNP

Trey Mullinax

$6,600

DNP

T31

MC

DNP

78th

Ben Silverman

$6,500

T56

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brandt Snedeker

$6,500

T78

DNP

MC

T32

T3

Taylor Montgomery

$6,500

T13

T31

T11

DNP

DNP

K.H. Lee

$6,400

MC

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

Kevin Streelman

$6,300

W/D

T60

T39

T37

T45

Francesco Molinari

$6,200

T73

DNP

T62

T10

MC

Will Gordon

$6,200

MC

MC

DNP

T42

T21


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