Fantasy Golf: The Sentry Preview

Welcome to the 14th year of these godforsaken previews written for the purpose of: (a) your weekly entertainment, and (b) my effort to keep the creative muscles from declining into a state of total atrophy. Oh right, and (c) gambling advice.

I hope everyone had a lovely holiday. Mine was basically the plot of a Hallmark movie if they ever make one about a guy in the process of getting divorced who tests positive for COVID on Christmas Eve. The current working title is Silent Night, Holy Shit Someone Please Fucking Shoot Me but we're still fine tuning it.     

Thank god for Slow Horses and Reacher which I intermittently binged while drifting in an out of consciousness. Between Gary Oldman sneering lines like "well you two are more useless than a paper condom" and Reacher just doing Reacher shit along with a lot of gunfire, I was  able to ignore the walls closing-in and the voices in my head. Well at least the walls.    

The week wasn't a total loss because, as fate would have it, the university of ill-repute where my son is currently a senior played a bowl game right in my backyard so I took a break from my deathbed to spend a day that began with tailgating in the rain and ended with me trying to fight everyone in the bar of my youth (the voices made me do it). Fortunately, my son was able to shove me and my cousin into an Uber like a Secret Service agent trying to save the president and first lady while taking heavy fire. The Hallmark scripts just kept writing themselves. 

A FEW THOUGHTS ON JON RAHM

You can't really preview this week's event without noting that the defending champion, Jon Rahm, will not be playing after deciding to sell his dignity. I love the people who say "you can't turn down that amount of money to play golf" as if the contract doesn't include an additional clause that requires you to make a complete fool of yourself, especially in the case of Rahm who previously wall-papered the landscape with his righteousness AND had the benefit of knowing exactly what the deal entailed from watching the players who went before him.    

Geoff Shackelford covered it pretty well here but let's go ahead and play a few of Rahm's greatest LIV bashing hits back when he was teeing off from the moral high ground:

• "I've never really played the game of golf for monetary reasons. I play for the love of the game, and I want to play against the best in the world."
• "There's been a lot of talk and speculation on the Saudi league and it's just not something that I believe is best for me and my future in golf and I think the best legacy I can accomplish is on the PGA Tour."
• "Shotgun, three days is not a golf tournament, no cut. It's that simple."
• "For me, the legacy you leave is very important."

Whatever. 

"Hey Jon, give us a look that
will make people feel more
nauseous than the quote."

Within ten minutes of selling-out he was spewing the LIV party line garbage about growing the game and getting his ego stroked by man bimbo Pat McAfee who went on some ridiculous blue collar screed about Rahm "changing his family tree forever." As if Rahm was like Carmy and Richie having to cook hot dogs at Uncle Jimmy's kid's birthday party to save the family restaurant. Just last year he won $16.5M in PGA Tour prize money plus another $9M from the PIP fund and that's all before Callaway, Rolex and Blue Yonder (whatever the fuck that is) stroked him a check so save us the working class hero speech.

Look, take the money or don't take the money. At this point no one really cares anymore if you want to put your name on a list of scumbags alongside Greg Norman, Jay Monahan, Phil Mickelson, Jimmy Dunne, Ed Herlihy and his royal highness Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al-Saud. Just spare us the bullshit. Oh yeah. Nice jacket. What a joke. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

We need a cathartic break after that. Just watch this on repeat for a few minutes.  

Have watched this 5 times today. It's better on each watch. pic.twitter.com/Ew0Z4YUUKP

— No Laying Up (@NoLayingUp) May 30, 2023

GOLF ANALYSIS

My favorite shot to come out of the post-Rahm defection wasn't even at Rahm. Andrew Cotter of British dog-walking fame speaking on his brilliant golf podcast The Chipping Forecast, compared Patrick Cantlay to Little Finger in Game of Thrones as a result of his apparent new role of PGA Tour backroom dealer. That's the modern equivalent of Dean Wormer telling Greg Marmalard to "put Neidermeyer on it . . . he's a sneaky little shit just like you."   

And after Cantlay's utterly petulant Ryder Cup performance, it's no stretch to add him to the growing list of villains who are completely fucking-up golf for the rest us. In the past, that would have shaded my objectivity and I wouldn't even consider wagering on him this week (see also: Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Reed) but we're going for a more tolerant approach this year and Cantlay makes sense based on his track record here and what I expect is a desire to show that he's more than just a sneaky little shit.   

The top pick, however, is Tom Kim who had a win in the fall hasn't finished worse than T24 since July and has five top tens in his last nine events. He also finished T5 here last year and isn't an asshole so he checks all of the boxes.  

Max Homa and Collin Morikawa have similar credentials so they also make the top ten but come with a warning that we seem to have an uncanny ability of whiffing when we pick them. On the other hand, we have a very strong false sense of confidence about Ludvig Aberg and Sungjae Im. Read into all of that what you will.

Denny McCarthy is going to have a breakout season so get used to seeing his name on here until he wins or my patience runs-out . . . probably by mid-February. Cam Davis and Luke List are both way undervalued for two guys with a "bomb it and then figure it out" style on a course that historically rewards it. And be sure to check-out the Historical Performance Chart section for some bonus takes. I've had a lot of time on my hands.   

One and Done Pick: Tom Kim

We need a guy who doesn't
give us acid reflux to root for.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Patrick Cantlay

Sleeper Pick: Luke List

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Patrick Cantlay	$9,900
Max Homa	$9,700
Collin Morikawa	$9,100
Tom Kim	$8,900
Ludvig Aberg	$8,700
Sungjae Im	$8,100
Keegan Bradley	$7,900
Denny McCarthy	$7,300
Cam Davis	$7,100
Luke List	$6,200

Along with the aforementioned shows I've been watching during my partial quarantine, I've also slipped down a bit of an American Revolution rabbit hole with Turn: Washington Spies and John Adams. (It's now just a matter of time before I'm reading extensively about submarines). The latter features Tom Wilkinson in an Emmy Award winning portrayal of Benjamin Franklin which he crushes just like he did with his roles in Michael Clayton, The Full Monty and, one of the best movies you've never seen, In the Bedroom (you'll thank me later once you recover from the gut wrenching twist). 

                                        THE TOM WILKINSON MEMORIAL

                                      HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

This year's chart definitely loses some luster when you take Rahm, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson out of the equation (combined four wins and six other top fives over the last seven years). Just outside of the timeframe below and going back to 2014 are some pretty gaudy finishes for Jordan Spieth (1st, 2nd and a T3), Hideki Matsuyama (2nd, T3 and a T4) and Rickie Fowler (T4, T5 and a 5th). If you think one of those guys has rediscovered the Kapalua magic, then pomaika'i to you. That's German for "good luck."    

	DK PRICE	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Scottie Scheffler	$11,000	T7	DNP	T13	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$10,500	T18	T30	T31	DNP	DNP
Xander Schauffele	$10,000	W/D	12th	T5	T2	1st
Patrick Cantlay	$9,900	T16	4th	T13	4th	DNP
Max Homa	$9,700	T3	T15	DNP	T25	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$9,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Fitzpatrick	$9,500	T7	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$9,300	T16	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tyrrell Hatton	$9,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Collin Morikawa	$9,100	2nd	T5	T7	T7	DNP
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Kim	$8,900	T5	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$8,800	T13	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ludvig Aberg	$8,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$8,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	T5	DNP
Jason Day	$8,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	13th
Tony Finau	$8,400	T7	T19	T31	DNP	DNP
Cameron Young	$8,300	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Burns	$8,200	32nd	T19	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$8,100	T13	T8	T5	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,000	T21	T13	T41	DNP	DNP
Keegan Bradley	$7,900	34th	DNP	DNP	DNP	T27
Sepp Straka	$7,800	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Russell Henley	$7,700	T30	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$7,600	33rd	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$7,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Corey Conners	$7,500	T18	DNP	DNP	T19	DNP
Lucas Glover	$7,500	DNP	T35	DNP	DNP	DNP
Eric Cole	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$7,300	DNP	T30	1st	DNP	DNP
Denny McCarthy	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
J.T. Poston	$7,200	T21	DNP	DNP	T11	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Davis	$7,100	DNP	T10	DNP	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$7,100	DNP	T23	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$7,000	DNP	DNP	T29	DNP	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brendon Todd	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	29th	DNP
Adam Schenk	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Byeong Hun An	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$6,700	T3	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Taylor Moore	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Svensson	$6,600	37th	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Wallace	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lee Hodges	$6,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Vincent Norrman	$6,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,400	T21	DNP	T41	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$6,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T14
Seamus Power	$6,300	T25	T15	DNP	DNP	DNP
Erik Van Rooyen	$6,300	DNP	T25	DNP	DNP	DNP
Luke List	$6,200	T11	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Akshay Bhatia	$6,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Hardy	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Rodgers	$6,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nico Echavarria	$6,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Riley	$6,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Camillio Villegas	$6,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP

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