Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Fantasy Golf: The Masters Preview

It was just a little over three years ago when all hell broke loose with COVID and we suddenly found ourselves in the two dimensional hellscape of (1) being stuck at home, and (2) having all sports cancelled. Some coped by binging TV shows and podcasts while others got all high and mighty by reading books. My personal outlet was a bottle of low budget pinot noir and a deep dive into replays of past Sundays at Augusta ("hey don't go down there . . . dad's watching old golf tournaments again and he's very chatty"). Trust me. It's cathartic. 

There are so many classics. Obviously 1986 stands-out as do 1996* and 1997 (IYKYK) but 2004 is also pretty great (Mickelson's first win when we still liked him) and I've always been a big fan of 1991 when Ian Woosnam edged Jose Maria Olazabol by a stroke while Tom Watson lost by two after an insane back nine where he went birdie-bogey-double-eagle-par-eagle-par-par-double. I was working in a golf store that summer and even back then someone had the technological wizardry to record that round so we watched it on a steady loop. Anytime a customer walked-in and asked if we were watching live golf, we knew it was time to sell a set of knock-off irons because "what they don't tell you is that they're made in the same factory as the Pings . . . I know unbelievable right?" 

The modern classic is unquestionably 2019 and I've had that playing in the background for the better part of the last 72 hours. Consider this. There was a point late in the round when Dustin Johnson made birdie on 17 to join a five-way tie for the lead at -12 with Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, Francesco Molinari and Xander Schauffele. That means that, with the eventual champion and arguably greatest golfer of all-time in the midst of an eleven year drought playing the 15th hole at August on Sunday, he was tied for the lead with the defending champions of the last three majors (Koepka and Molinari) and the 2nd (D.J.), 4th (Koepka), 7th (Molinari) and 10th (Schauffele) ranked players in the world. Holy fuck. If nothing else, just get your juices flowing today by finding that 20 minute stretch on YouTube and basking in it. 

We all know how it went down from there (at least I do). Tiger birdied 15 and then almost aced 16 before making a routine par at 17 to take a two shot lead to the final hole where a judicious bogey sealed the deal. Not that it's fair to compare anything to 2019 (other than 1986) but we haven't had one close to that good since. The stars, however, might be aligning this week for something quite special with old friends back in town. Maybe it's the full moon or the fact that I just accidentally watered my cactus with Chardonnay but I feel like the golf course knows this year is different and it's ready to deliver.   

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Normally I do a golf tweet for this preview but after the effort I just put into that introduction, I need a breather. My second choice was any of the hundreds of available tweets rightfully crucifying the "performance" of the officials in the women's college basketball championship game but Caitlin Clark said she's moving-on so I will follow her lead (pretty much anywhere).

Besides, when you work as an attorney for a construction company which occasionally requires you to visit jobsites and act like half your ties aren't made by Vineyard Vines, you have to honor this gem just for the picture alone. 

GOLF ANALYSIS 

Last year I did a very thoughtful and thorough analysis of the FGR's top twenty players including a full paragraph on each. Here is what that yielded for a top five:

1. Xander Schauffele (MC)
2. Jordan Spieth (MC)
3. Brooks Koepka (MC)
4. Dustin Johnson (T12)
5. Scottie Scheffler (1st)

In the words of Gordon Gekko, "I'll bet you stayed up all night analyzing that dogshit stock you gave me, huh? Where'd it get you?" Suffice it to say that I won't be going through that worthless exercise again. 

Fortunately, last year's dumpster fire is not representative of my overall track record. The year before I picked Justin Thomas (T21) with Jordan Spieth as my backup (T3). In 2020 I picked Dustin Johnson (1st) followed by Xander Schauffele (T17). And for the aforementioned 2019 tournament, I went with Justin Rose who had finished runner-up two of the previous four years and then promptly missed the cut. Quite the capricious and fickle mistress this event has been for me indeed. 

"Everyone relax. Have some
wine. Enjoy yourselves." 
This year brings even more intrigue as we welcome back the LIVGolf crew who, according to Cameron Smith, have been grinding "week in and week out" by playing a total three 54-hole events in 2023. I don't know. Maybe a week in Saud Arabia lasts a month. Either way, I'm the rigor of those outings has them razor sharp. Oh and everyone can relax about the atmosphere at the Champions' Dinner. As someone who has instigated and been a part of more than his share of awkward golf tournament dinner moments, I can assure you that it will be just fine. 

Enough preambling, let's make some picks. 

I am nothing if not stubborn and undeterred even when maybe I should be more deterred but the missed cuts last year by Schauffele and Spieth don't bother me. In fact they inspire me. Schauffele has still finished top three twice since 2019 with a T17 to go along with his missed cut last year and he's coming off a run to the quarterfinals in Austin where he lost on the final hole to a red hot Rory McIlroy. Spieth has five top three finishes here since 2014 including a T3 in 2021 and he comes in with two top fives in his last four events. 

I literally had them as a coin flip until the moment a few hours ago when I saw the pairings come out with Schauffele playing in the Tiger maelstrom (along with Viktor Hovland) and Spieth playing with the dynamic duo of nice guys in Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau. Maybe Xander uses that to dial-in but it feels like a distraction to me for a guy starting to put some pressure on himself to win his first major. Advantage Spieth who also gets to fly-in under a lot of other factors jamming the radar.    

Looky here. There are fifteen guys on the chart below who, over the last five years, have either won the green jacket or had multiple top tens (or in the case of Dustin Johnson and Patrick Reed, both). Not that you would consider Reed or Corey Conners as a favorite to win this week but you could make a case for any of the other thirteen along with the likes of Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Jason Day. It's just another reason that we're already looking forward to Sunday. We know big-time players are going to be involved and we can't wait to find out which ones. 

I'm not going to justify why I'm not picking ALL of the other likely candidates but, for the sake of proving that I gave this some thought and didn't just zero-in a couple players while turning a blind-eye to the rest (like most weeks), here is my brief rationale on the big ones:
  • Scottie Scheffler: There won't be a repeat.
  • Jon Rahm: Currently off his game.
  • Rory McIlroy: Not his year. Might never be his year here.
  • Cameron Smith: Too rusty.
  • Patrick Cantlay: Not going to win a major (you heard me).
  • Justin Thomas: Not a Masters winner (you heard me).
  • Dustin Johnson: I've got him finishing between 3rd and 8th.
  • Max Homa: Too good to be true too soon.
  • Collin Morikawa: More on him in a minute. 
  • Tony Finau: Just feels like a top ten ceiling guy.  
  • Viktor Hovland: His day will come, just not this year. 
  • Tiger Woods: He'll make the cut and that alone will be cool.
I'm very nervous about not picking Collin Morikawa. Then again, I'm always very nervous about not picking Collin Morikawa but then I saw that he landed in the dream group with Will Zalatoris and Matt Fitzpatrick for the first two rounds and I got even more nervous. I'm sticking with Spieth but just thought you should know. Morikawa makes me nervous. 

The mid-range picks of Jason Day, Sungjae Im and Zalatoris are pretty chalky. If you're feeling Hideki Matsuyama and Shane Lowry in that range, you will draw no objection from me. There really aren't many bad picks in the top 30 at the Masters. At least not until Friday when you've got Zalatoris in 75% of your pools and he misses the cut by two. 

That brings us back to the LIVGolf guys who are frankly undervalued this year. I get why but most of them are getting docked $500-$700 on their DraftKings price and you know at least a couple of them are going to find their pre-LIV form. Even before he won their last member-member in Orlando, I had Brooks Koepka on my radar. The last two times he played Augusta healthy and motivated he finished T2 and T7. Apparently he was healthy and motivated enough last week to edge Sebastian Munoz and Dean Burmeister which has to count for something. Also, the whole sad sack routine on the Netflix show was a complete ruse so he could return as the low expectation underdog. I mean I wouldn't pick him to win but at $7,600 . . . come on.

Something of the same can be said of Patrick Reed who probably has the second best Masters resume over the last five years behind Dustin Johnson. And the thing about Reed is that, if you put some scratch on him, at least if he does well you'll hate the universe a little less. 

Finally, as I near collapse on my keyboard, I originally had Talor Gooch as my sleeper but I couldn't stomach a third LIV guy so I switched to Harris English who always has me kicking myself when he shoots an opening round 67 even if he finishes tied for 53rd because he looks so damn smooth doing it. Kind of like me operating a power tool. But exactly the opposite. 

One and Done Pick: Jordan Spieth
"Appreciate your continued faith FGR.
I look forward to . . . wait what?"

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele

Sleeper Pick: Harris English

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Scottie Scheffler

$11,100

Jordan Spieth

$9,700

Xander Schauffele

$9,000

Jason Day

$8,700

Will Zalatoris

$8,200

Sungjae Im

$8,100

Brooks Koepka

$7,600

Si Woo Kim

$7,400

Patrick Reed

$7,300

Harris English

$6,700


Footnote

* I actually forgot what happened at Augusta in 1996 until I decided to randomly throw it on and fast forwarded right to the point where Greg Norman hit his tee shot on 12 into the water and gave-up the lead he'd had since Thursday. I don't necessarily consider myself a spiteful person but I'm really enjoying this. Also, I forgot what an awesome grouch Ken Venturi was. It's like if your dad had to wake-up and broadcast a golf tournament with a hangover the morning after you wrapped his Buick LeSabre around a telephone pole. 

                                               A HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 
                                                 CHART UNLIKE ANY OTHER

It's hard to ignore the solid track records of Kevin Na and Cameron Champ who clearly have found that unique comfort level at Augusta that some random players do. I mean I'm ignoring it. But it wasn't easy. Also, Bubba Watson has played the Masters fourteen times and only missed the cut once. Could be pretty good value at $6,900. Just sayin'. 

 

DK Price

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

Scottie Scheffler

$11,100

1st

T18

T19

DNP

DNP

Jon Rahm

$10,800

T27

T5

T7

T9

4th

Rory McIlroy

$10,600

2nd

MC

T5

T21

T5

Cameron Smith

$9,800

T3

T10

T2

T51

T5

Jordan Spieth

$9,700

MC

T3

T46

T21

3rd

Patrick Cantlay

$9,500

T39

MC

T17

T9

MC

Justin Thomas

$9,300

T8

T21

4th

T12

T17

Max Homa

$9,200

T48

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Collin Morikawa

$9,100

5th

T18

T44

DNP

DNP

Xander Schauffele

$9,000

MC

T3

T17

T2

T50

Tony Finau

$8,900

T35

T10

T38

T5

T10

Dustin Johnson

$8,800

T12

MC

1st

T2

T10

Jason Day

$8,700

DNP

MC

MC

T5

T20

Cameron Young

$8,600

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$8,500

T27

T21

DNP

T32

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,400

T14

1st

T13

T32

19th

Sam Burns

$8,300

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Will Zalatoris

$8,200

T6

2nd

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sungjae Im

$8,100

T8

MC

T2

DNP

DNP

Mattew Fitzpatrick

$8,000

T14

T34

T46

T21

T38

Shane Lowry

$7,900

T3

T21

T25

MC

DNP

Tyrell Hatton

$7,900

52nd

T18

MC

T56

T44

Joaquin Niemann

$7,800

T35

T40

DNP

DNP

MC

Justin Rose

$7,800

MC

7th

T23

MC

T12

Tommy Fleetwood

$7,700

T14

T46

T19

T36

T17

Tom Kim

$7,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brooks Koepka

$7,600

MC

MC

T7

T2

DNP

Corey Conners

$7,600

T6

T8

T10

T46

DNP

Min Woo Lee

$7,600

T14

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

B. DeChambeau

$7,500

MC

T46

T34

T29

T38

Adam Scott

$7,500

T48

54th

T34

T18

T32

Sahith Theegala

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Abraham Ancer

$7,400

MC

T26

T13

DNP

DNP

Si Woo Kim

$7,400

T39

T12

T34

T21

T24

Keegan Bradley

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

T43

DNP

Tiger Woods

$7,300

47th

DNP

T38

1st

T32

Patrick Reed

$7,300

T35

T8

T10

T36

1st

Taylor Moore

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Loois Oosthuizen

$7,200

W/D

T26

T23

T29

T12

Mito Pereira

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Aaron Wise (O)

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

17th

DNP

Keith Mitchell

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

T43

DNP

Kurt Kitayama

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Chris Kirk

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sergio Garcia

$7,000

T23

MC

DNP

MC

MC

Russell Henley

$7,000

T30

DNP

DNP

DNP

T15

Billy Horschel

$7,000

43rd

T50

T38

T56

MC

Bubba Watson

$6,900

T39

T26

57th

T12

T5

Tom Hoge

$6,900

T39

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Thomas Pieters

$6,900

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Talor Gooch

$6,800

T14

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Seamus Power

$6,800

T27

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Alex Noren

$6,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

T62

MC

Gary Woodland

$6,700

MC

T46

MC

T32

MC

Brian Harman

$6,700

MC

T12

DNP

DNP

T44

Harris English

$6,700

DNP

T21

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ryan Fox

$6,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

F. Molinari

$6,600

MC

52nd

MC

T5

T20

Cameron Champ

$6,600

T10

T26

T19

DNP

DNP

Danny Willett

$6,600

T12

MC

T25

MC

MC

J.T. Poston

$6,600

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Jason Kokrak

$6,500

T14

49th

MC

DNP

DNP

Kevin Na

$6,500

T14

T12

T13

T46

DNP

Harold Varner, III

$6,500

T23

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Svensson

$6,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Charl Schwartzel

$6,400

T10

T26

T25

MC

MC

Phil Mickelson

$6,400

DNP

T21

T55

T18

T36

K.H. Lee

$6,400

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adrian Meronk

$6,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sepp Straka

$6,300

T30

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Zach Johnson

$6,300

MC

MC

T51

T58

T36

Mackenzie Hughes

$6,300

T50

T40

DNP

DNP

DNP

Scott Stallings

$6,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kazuki Higa

$6,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Kisner

$6,200

T44

MC

MC

T21

T28

Bernhard Langer

$6,100

MC

MC

T29

T62

T38

Fred Couples

$6,000

MC

MC

MC

DNP

T38


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