Fantasy Golf: The Masters Preview

It was just a little over three years ago when all hell broke loose with COVID and we suddenly found ourselves in the two dimensional hellscape of (1) being stuck at home, and (2) having all sports cancelled. Some coped by binging TV shows and podcasts while others got all high and mighty by reading books. My personal outlet was a bottle of low budget pinot noir and a deep dive into replays of past Sundays at Augusta ("hey don't go down there . . . dad's watching old golf tournaments again and he's very chatty"). Trust me. It's cathartic. 

There are so many classics. Obviously 1986 stands-out as do 1996* and 1997 (IYKYK) but 2004 is also pretty great (Mickelson's first win when we still liked him) and I've always been a big fan of 1991 when Ian Woosnam edged Jose Maria Olazabol by a stroke while Tom Watson lost by two after an insane back nine where he went birdie-bogey-double-eagle-par-eagle-par-par-double. I was working in a golf store that summer and even back then someone had the technological wizardry to record that round so we watched it on a steady loop. Anytime a customer walked-in and asked if we were watching live golf, we knew it was time to sell a set of knock-off irons because "what they don't tell you is that they're made in the same factory as the Pings . . . I know unbelievable right?" 

The modern classic is unquestionably 2019 and I've had that playing in the background for the better part of the last 72 hours. Consider this. There was a point late in the round when Dustin Johnson made birdie on 17 to join a five-way tie for the lead at -12 with Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, Francesco Molinari and Xander Schauffele. That means that, with the eventual champion and arguably greatest golfer of all-time in the midst of an eleven year drought playing the 15th hole at August on Sunday, he was tied for the lead with the defending champions of the last three majors (Koepka and Molinari) and the 2nd (D.J.), 4th (Koepka), 7th (Molinari) and 10th (Schauffele) ranked players in the world. Holy fuck. If nothing else, just get your juices flowing today by finding that 20 minute stretch on YouTube and basking in it. 

We all know how it went down from there (at least I do). Tiger birdied 15 and then almost aced 16 before making a routine par at 17 to take a two shot lead to the final hole where a judicious bogey sealed the deal. Not that it's fair to compare anything to 2019 (other than 1986) but we haven't had one close to that good since. The stars, however, might be aligning this week for something quite special with old friends back in town. Maybe it's the full moon or the fact that I just accidentally watered my cactus with Chardonnay but I feel like the golf course knows this year is different and it's ready to deliver.   

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Normally I do a golf tweet for this preview but after the effort I just put into that introduction, I need a breather. My second choice was any of the hundreds of available tweets rightfully crucifying the "performance" of the officials in the women's college basketball championship game but Caitlin Clark said she's moving-on so I will follow her lead (pretty much anywhere).

Besides, when you work as an attorney for a construction company which occasionally requires you to visit jobsites and act like half your ties aren't made by Vineyard Vines, you have to honor this gem just for the picture alone. 

The first day on the job after I lied on my resume pic.twitter.com/0VJ3GCN6co

— Sopranos World (@SopranosWorld) April 2, 2023

GOLF ANALYSIS 

Last year I did a very thoughtful and thorough analysis of the FGR's top twenty players including a full paragraph on each. Here is what that yielded for a top five:

1. Xander Schauffele (MC)

2. Jordan Spieth (MC)

3. Brooks Koepka (MC)

4. Dustin Johnson (T12)

5. Scottie Scheffler (1st)

In the words of Gordon Gekko, "I'll bet you stayed up all night analyzing that dogshit stock you gave me, huh? Where'd it get you?" Suffice it to say that I won't be going through that worthless exercise again. 

Fortunately, last year's dumpster fire is not representative of my overall track record. The year before I picked Justin Thomas (T21) with Jordan Spieth as my backup (T3). In 2020 I picked Dustin Johnson (1st) followed by Xander Schauffele (T17). And for the aforementioned 2019 tournament, I went with Justin Rose who had finished runner-up two of the previous four years and then promptly missed the cut. Quite the capricious and fickle mistress this event has been for me indeed. 

"Everyone relax. Have some
wine. Enjoy yourselves." 

This year brings even more intrigue as we welcome back the LIVGolf crew who, according to Cameron Smith, have been grinding "week in and week out" by playing a total three 54-hole events in 2023. I don't know. Maybe a week in Saud Arabia lasts a month. Either way, I'm the rigor of those outings has them razor sharp. Oh and everyone can relax about the atmosphere at the Champions' Dinner. As someone who has instigated and been a part of more than his share of awkward golf tournament dinner moments, I can assure you that it will be just fine. 

Enough preambling, let's make some picks. 

I am nothing if not stubborn and undeterred even when maybe I should be more deterred but the missed cuts last year by Schauffele and Spieth don't bother me. In fact they inspire me. Schauffele has still finished top three twice since 2019 with a T17 to go along with his missed cut last year and he's coming off a run to the quarterfinals in Austin where he lost on the final hole to a red hot Rory McIlroy. Spieth has five top three finishes here since 2014 including a T3 in 2021 and he comes in with two top fives in his last four events. 

I literally had them as a coin flip until the moment a few hours ago when I saw the pairings come out with Schauffele playing in the Tiger maelstrom (along with Viktor Hovland) and Spieth playing with the dynamic duo of nice guys in Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau. Maybe Xander uses that to dial-in but it feels like a distraction to me for a guy starting to put some pressure on himself to win his first major. Advantage Spieth who also gets to fly-in under a lot of other factors jamming the radar.    

Looky here. There are fifteen guys on the chart below who, over the last five years, have either won the green jacket or had multiple top tens (or in the case of Dustin Johnson and Patrick Reed, both). Not that you would consider Reed or Corey Conners as a favorite to win this week but you could make a case for any of the other thirteen along with the likes of Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Jason Day. It's just another reason that we're already looking forward to Sunday. We know big-time players are going to be involved and we can't wait to find out which ones. 

I'm not going to justify why I'm not picking ALL of the other likely candidates but, for the sake of proving that I gave this some thought and didn't just zero-in a couple players while turning a blind-eye to the rest (like most weeks), here is my brief rationale on the big ones:

• Scottie Scheffler: There won't be a repeat.
• Jon Rahm: Currently off his game.
• Rory McIlroy: Not his year. Might never be his year here.
• Cameron Smith: Too rusty.
• Patrick Cantlay: Not going to win a major (you heard me).
• Justin Thomas: Not a Masters winner (you heard me).
• Dustin Johnson: I've got him finishing between 3rd and 8th.
• Max Homa: Too good to be true too soon.
• Collin Morikawa: More on him in a minute. 
• Tony Finau: Just feels like a top ten ceiling guy.  
• Viktor Hovland: His day will come, just not this year. 
• Tiger Woods: He'll make the cut and that alone will be cool.

I'm very nervous about not picking Collin Morikawa. Then again, I'm always very nervous about not picking Collin Morikawa but then I saw that he landed in the dream group with Will Zalatoris and Matt Fitzpatrick for the first two rounds and I got even more nervous. I'm sticking with Spieth but just thought you should know. Morikawa makes me nervous. 

The mid-range picks of Jason Day, Sungjae Im and Zalatoris are pretty chalky. If you're feeling Hideki Matsuyama and Shane Lowry in that range, you will draw no objection from me. There really aren't many bad picks in the top 30 at the Masters. At least not until Friday when you've got Zalatoris in 75% of your pools and he misses the cut by two. 

That brings us back to the LIVGolf guys who are frankly undervalued this year. I get why but most of them are getting docked $500-$700 on their DraftKings price and you know at least a couple of them are going to find their pre-LIV form. Even before he won their last member-member in Orlando, I had Brooks Koepka on my radar. The last two times he played Augusta healthy and motivated he finished T2 and T7. Apparently he was healthy and motivated enough last week to edge Sebastian Munoz and Dean Burmeister which has to count for something. Also, the whole sad sack routine on the Netflix show was a complete ruse so he could return as the low expectation underdog. I mean I wouldn't pick him to win but at $7,600 . . . come on.

Something of the same can be said of Patrick Reed who probably has the second best Masters resume over the last five years behind Dustin Johnson. And the thing about Reed is that, if you put some scratch on him, at least if he does well you'll hate the universe a little less. 

Finally, as I near collapse on my keyboard, I originally had Talor Gooch as my sleeper but I couldn't stomach a third LIV guy so I switched to Harris English who always has me kicking myself when he shoots an opening round 67 even if he finishes tied for 53rd because he looks so damn smooth doing it. Kind of like me operating a power tool. But exactly the opposite. 

One and Done Pick: Jordan Spieth

"Appreciate your continued faith FGR.
I look forward to . . . wait what?"

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele

Sleeper Pick: Harris English

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Scottie Scheffler	$11,100
Jordan Spieth	$9,700
Xander Schauffele	$9,000
Jason Day	$8,700
Will Zalatoris	$8,200
Sungjae Im	$8,100
Brooks Koepka	$7,600
Si Woo Kim	$7,400
Patrick Reed	$7,300
Harris English	$6,700

Footnote

* I actually forgot what happened at Augusta in 1996 until I decided to randomly throw it on and fast forwarded right to the point where Greg Norman hit his tee shot on 12 into the water and gave-up the lead he'd had since Thursday. I don't necessarily consider myself a spiteful person but I'm really enjoying this. Also, I forgot what an awesome grouch Ken Venturi was. It's like if your dad had to wake-up and broadcast a golf tournament with a hangover the morning after you wrapped his Buick LeSabre around a telephone pole. 

                                               A HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 

                                                 CHART UNLIKE ANY OTHER

It's hard to ignore the solid track records of Kevin Na and Cameron Champ who clearly have found that unique comfort level at Augusta that some random players do. I mean I'm ignoring it. But it wasn't easy. Also, Bubba Watson has played the Masters fourteen times and only missed the cut once. Could be pretty good value at $6,900. Just sayin'. 

	DK Price	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Scottie Scheffler	$11,100	1st	T18	T19	DNP	DNP
Jon Rahm	$10,800	T27	T5	T7	T9	4th
Rory McIlroy	$10,600	2nd	MC	T5	T21	T5
Cameron Smith	$9,800	T3	T10	T2	T51	T5
Jordan Spieth	$9,700	MC	T3	T46	T21	3rd
Patrick Cantlay	$9,500	T39	MC	T17	T9	MC
Justin Thomas	$9,300	T8	T21	4th	T12	T17
Max Homa	$9,200	T48	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Collin Morikawa	$9,100	5th	T18	T44	DNP	DNP
Xander Schauffele	$9,000	MC	T3	T17	T2	T50
Tony Finau	$8,900	T35	T10	T38	T5	T10
Dustin Johnson	$8,800	T12	MC	1st	T2	T10
Jason Day	$8,700	DNP	MC	MC	T5	T20
Cameron Young	$8,600	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$8,500	T27	T21	DNP	T32	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,400	T14	1st	T13	T32	19th
Sam Burns	$8,300	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Will Zalatoris	$8,200	T6	2nd	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$8,100	T8	MC	T2	DNP	DNP
Mattew Fitzpatrick	$8,000	T14	T34	T46	T21	T38
Shane Lowry	$7,900	T3	T21	T25	MC	DNP
Tyrell Hatton	$7,900	52nd	T18	MC	T56	T44
Joaquin Niemann	$7,800	T35	T40	DNP	DNP	MC
Justin Rose	$7,800	MC	7th	T23	MC	T12
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,700	T14	T46	T19	T36	T17
Tom Kim	$7,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brooks Koepka	$7,600	MC	MC	T7	T2	DNP
Corey Conners	$7,600	T6	T8	T10	T46	DNP
Min Woo Lee	$7,600	T14	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
B. DeChambeau	$7,500	MC	T46	T34	T29	T38
Adam Scott	$7,500	T48	54th	T34	T18	T32
Sahith Theegala	$7,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Abraham Ancer	$7,400	MC	T26	T13	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$7,400	T39	T12	T34	T21	T24
Keegan Bradley	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	T43	DNP
Tiger Woods	$7,300	47th	DNP	T38	1st	T32
Patrick Reed	$7,300	T35	T8	T10	T36	1st
Taylor Moore	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Loois Oosthuizen	$7,200	W/D	T26	T23	T29	T12
Mito Pereira	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Aaron Wise (O)	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	17th	DNP
Keith Mitchell	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	T43	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sergio Garcia	$7,000	T23	MC	DNP	MC	MC
Russell Henley	$7,000	T30	DNP	DNP	DNP	T15
Billy Horschel	$7,000	43rd	T50	T38	T56	MC
Bubba Watson	$6,900	T39	T26	57th	T12	T5
Tom Hoge	$6,900	T39	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Thomas Pieters	$6,900	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Talor Gooch	$6,800	T14	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Seamus Power	$6,800	T27	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Alex Noren	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	T62	MC
Gary Woodland	$6,700	MC	T46	MC	T32	MC
Brian Harman	$6,700	MC	T12	DNP	DNP	T44
Harris English	$6,700	DNP	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ryan Fox	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
F. Molinari	$6,600	MC	52nd	MC	T5	T20
Cameron Champ	$6,600	T10	T26	T19	DNP	DNP
Danny Willett	$6,600	T12	MC	T25	MC	MC
J.T. Poston	$6,600	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Jason Kokrak	$6,500	T14	49th	MC	DNP	DNP
Kevin Na	$6,500	T14	T12	T13	T46	DNP
Harold Varner, III	$6,500	T23	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Svensson	$6,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Charl Schwartzel	$6,400	T10	T26	T25	MC	MC
Phil Mickelson	$6,400	DNP	T21	T55	T18	T36
K.H. Lee	$6,400	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adrian Meronk	$6,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sepp Straka	$6,300	T30	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Zach Johnson	$6,300	MC	MC	T51	T58	T36
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,300	T50	T40	DNP	DNP	DNP
Scott Stallings	$6,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kazuki Higa	$6,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kevin Kisner	$6,200	T44	MC	MC	T21	T28
Bernhard Langer	$6,100	MC	MC	T29	T62	T38
Fred Couples	$6,000	MC	MC	MC	DNP	T38

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