Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Fantasy Golf: The American Express Preview

We are officially entering the winter sweet spot in Baltimore. The holidays are over so driveways from Rosedale to Milford Mill are littered with dead pine trees, the Ravens season has ended in typically tragic fashion and looming before us now is about six weeks of gray slush producing skies and people using kitchen chairs from 1952 to save parking spots in front of their Formstone encased rowhomes. At no other time of year does the city and its beltway adjacent environs ooze quite this much charm.

It used to come with the added bonus of having weekend golf preempted by winter weather coverage. You'd turn tune-in on Saturday at 3:00 p.m. expecting three hours live from Pebble Beach only to be treated to local news reporters like Rob Roblin risking their lives by broadcasting from icy overpasses or interviewing itinerant serial killers in strip mall parking lots. Meanwhile, children throughout the region were left to wonder why the snow always makes daddy drink. It was a simpler time.  

Is it concerning that I'm already talking like this just three weeks into January? Yes. 

GOLF ANALYSIS

But hey, we've got a pretty solid field headlined by the best player in the world and supported by a cast of Ryder Cup players including five from the team that actually showed-up (I will eventually probably let it go). The average winning score over the last ten years at The American Express is a little shy of -25 which can make things rather unpredictable. The top players can win here as evidenced by Jon Rahm in 2018 and 2023 but, at the same time, you would have had way more success picking J.T. Poston or even Tom Hoge than Scottie Scheffler over the last five years. 

With that in mind and our fear of wasting the talents of Sam Burns or Ben Griffin on a tournament once dominated for two years by Andrew Landry, we're going with the red hot Ryan Gerard who is coming-off back to back runner-up finishes including one at last week's Sony Open where he was the FGR sleeper pick. Feels like he's earned a promotion. 

It's either going to be him or the aforementioned J.T. Poston who hasn't finished worse than T30 since the British Open and has been T25 or better here the last four years. I know that isn't the most compelling case but you'll thank me when you get a T12 out of him as Griffin slips to T52 and is lost to you for the season. 

With all of that being said, the two picks we are most fond of this week are Michael Kim who appears on the verge of a leveling-up season and Lee Hodges who's odds are ridiculously long for a guy who finished T4 and T6 in his last two starts. He's also made four trips around the desert circuit with a T3 in 2022 so we know he has it in him to pick-up where our new favorite player who we couldn't pick out of a lineup left off last week. 

Place

Player

Odds

Winner

Ben Griffin

+2000

Top 5

Ryan Gerard

+950

Top 10

Michael Kim

+750

Top 10

J.T. Poston

+450

Top 20

Lee Hodges

+380


One and Done Pick: Ryan Gerard
We don't know much about Ryan 
Gerard and this may not even be
him but he sure looks like he has
a willowy confident stride.

Other Guy We'd Pick: J.T. Poston

Sleeper Pick: Lee Hodges 

DraftKings Top Ten Values


Ben Griffin

$10,200

Sam Burns

$9,800

Harry Hall

$9,300

Si Woo Kim

$9,000

Rickie Fowler

$8,400

Davis Thompson

$8,200

J.T. Poston

$8,000

Michael Kim

$7,500

Alex Smalley

$7,400

Lee Hodges

$6,700


This week's chart honors the inevitable and stupid expansion of the world's most famous third-rate luxury golfing brand to America's newest territory. But beware the rabid arctic foxes in the summertime and fellas . . .  I am NOT talking about the cart girls . . . HEYOOOO!!!! 

THE TRUMP NATIONAL NUUK
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART 

Our most glaring omission would be Patrick Cantlay but he's a one and one pick lock at Riviera. However, if you want to throw him on a squad with some of our other value picks or put a couple ducats on him to finish top five at +500, we will most certainly not hold it against you. 

 

DK Price

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

Scottie Scheffler

$14,200

DNP

T17

T11

T25

MC

Patrick Cantlay

$10,400

T5

T52

T26

9th

2nd

Ludvig Aberg

$10,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ben Griffin

$10,200

T7

T9

T32

DNP

DNP

Sam Burns

$9,800

T29

T6

T11

DNP

MC

Russell Henley

$9,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

T14

MC

Matt Fitzpatrick

$9,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Robert Macintyre

$9,400

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Harry Halll

$9,300

T21

MC

T41

DNP

T47

Sepp Straka

$9,200

1st

DNP

DNP

T49

MC

Harris English

$9,100

T43

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Si Woo Kim

$9,000

T51

T25

T22

T11

1st

Taylor Pendrith

$8,900

DNP

MC

MC

MC

DNP

Alex Noren

$8,800

DNP

T25

DNP

MC

T40

Kurt Kitayama

$8,700

T58

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

M. Thorbjornsen

$8,600

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Rasmuss Hojgaard

$8,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Rickie Fowler

$8,400

T21

MC

T54

MC

T21

Min Woo Lee

$8,300

DNP

T21

DNP

DNP

DNP

Davis Thompson

$8,200

T58

T21

2nd

DNP

DNP

Jason Day

$8,100

T3

T34

T18

T49

DNP

J.T. Poston

$8,000

T12

T11

T6

T25

MC

Justin Rose

$7,900

DNP

DNP

T26

T33

DNP

Adam Scott

$7,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Daniel Berger

$7,800

T21

T39

DNP

DNP

DNP

Akshay Bhatia

$7,800

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

MC

Piercson Coody

$7,800

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nick Taylor

$7,700

T12

MC

MC

T33

T47

C. Bezuidenhout

$7,700

MC

2nd

T11

T40

DNP

Rico Hoey

$7,700

T58

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Wyndham Clark

$7,600

MC

T39

T50

13th

T54

Will Zalatoris

$7,600

T12

T34

T36

T6

DNP

Kevin Yu

$7,600

MC

T3

MC

DNP

DNP

Ryan Gerard

$7,600

T51

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Max Greyserman

$7,500

T7

T56

DNP

DNP

DNP

Denny McCarthy

$7,500

DNP

DNP

T50

T6

MC

Keith Mitchell

$7,500

T21

T9

T22

DNP

DNP

Michael Kim

$7,500

T43

T6

MC

DNP

MC

Brian Harman

$7,400

MC

DNP

MC

T3

T8

Alex Smalley

$7,400

11th

T21

T22

T25

DNP

Jacob Bridgeman

$7,400

T21

T39

DNP

DNP

DNP

Max Homa

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

T21

Samuel Stevens

$7,300

T51

T65

67th

DNP

DNP

Emilliano Grillo

$7,300

MC

DNP

MC

T63

T37

Matt Wallace

$7,300

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sami Valimaki

$7,300

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hao-Tong Li

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Andrew Novak

$7,200

MC

MC

MC

MC

DNP

Matthew McCarty

$7,200

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Vince Whaley

$7,200

T64

T34

DNP

T40

MC

Sahith Theegala

$7,200

DNP

DNP

T54

T33

DNP

John Keefer

$7,200

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jhonattan Vegas

$7,100

MC

MC

MC

MC

DNP

Jesper Svensson

$7,100

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Rodgers

$7,100

70th

DNP

MC

T40

MC

Matti Schmid

$7,100

MC

MC

T6

DNP

DNP

John Parry

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Roy

$7,100

T18

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Nick Dunlap

$7,000

T34

1st

DNP

DNP

DNP

Mackenzie Hughes

$7,000

T58

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ricky Castillo

$7,000

T43

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Seamus Power

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

T14

DNP

William Mouw

$7,000

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Aldrich Potgieter

$7,000

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Nico Echavarria

$6,900

MC

T65

MC

DNP

DNP

Mac Meissner

$6,900

T68

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Chris Kirk

$6,900

T34

T47

T3

MC

T16

Matt Kuchar

$6,900

T43

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Austin Eckroat

$6,900

DNP

T25

MC

DNP

DNP

Gary Woodland

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

T16

Neil Shipley

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Fishburn

$6,800

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Billy Horschel

$6,800

T21

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Doug Ghim

$6,800

T21

MC

MC

T59

T5

Lee Hodges

$6,700

T34

MC

MC

T3

DNP

Bud Cauley

$6,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Davis Riley

$6,700

MC

MC

T65

T59

DNP

Stephan Jaeger

$6,700

DNP

T52

T36

DNP

DNP

Tony Finau

$6,600

MC

T25

T16

T40

4th

Tom Kim

$6,600

MC

MC

T6

DNP

MC

Eric Cole

$6,600

T68

T21

T36

DNP

DNP

Mark Hubbard

$6,600

T12

T47

MC

DNP

MC

Max McGreavey

$6,600

MC

DNP

MC

MC

DNP

Sam Ryder

$6,600

T43

T62

MC

T49

T47

Tom Hoge

$6,500

T29

T17

T32

2nd

MC

Beau Hossler

$6,500

T12

T47

T50

DNP

MC

Carson Young

$6,500

T29

T17

MC

DNP

DNP

Taylor Moore

$6,500

T7

DNP

MC

T67

DNP

Adam Schenk

$6,400

W/D

MC

MC

MC

T37

Patton Kizzire

$6,400

MC

MC

T11

T22

53rd


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