Fantasy Golf: The American Express Preview

We are officially entering the winter sweet spot in Baltimore. The holidays are over so driveways from Rosedale to Milford Mill are littered with dead pine trees, the Ravens season has ended in typically tragic fashion and looming before us now is about six weeks of gray slush producing skies and people using kitchen chairs from 1952 to save parking spots in front of their Formstone encased rowhomes. At no other time of year does the city and its beltway adjacent environs ooze quite this much charm.

It used to come with the added bonus of having weekend golf preempted by winter weather coverage. You'd turn tune-in on Saturday at 3:00 p.m. expecting three hours live from Pebble Beach only to be treated to local news reporters like Rob Roblin risking their lives by broadcasting from icy overpasses or interviewing itinerant serial killers in strip mall parking lots. Meanwhile, children throughout the region were left to wonder why the snow always makes daddy drink. It was a simpler time.  

Is it concerning that I'm already talking like this just three weeks into January? Yes. 

GOLF ANALYSIS

But hey, we've got a pretty solid field headlined by the best player in the world and supported by a cast of Ryder Cup players including five from the team that actually showed-up (I will eventually probably let it go). The average winning score over the last ten years at The American Express is a little shy of -25 which can make things rather unpredictable. The top players can win here as evidenced by Jon Rahm in 2018 and 2023 but, at the same time, you would have had way more success picking J.T. Poston or even Tom Hoge than Scottie Scheffler over the last five years. 

With that in mind and our fear of wasting the talents of Sam Burns or Ben Griffin on a tournament once dominated for two years by Andrew Landry, we're going with the red hot Ryan Gerard who is coming-off back to back runner-up finishes including one at last week's Sony Open where he was the FGR sleeper pick. Feels like he's earned a promotion. 

It's either going to be him or the aforementioned J.T. Poston who hasn't finished worse than T30 since the British Open and has been T25 or better here the last four years. I know that isn't the most compelling case but you'll thank me when you get a T12 out of him as Griffin slips to T52 and is lost to you for the season. 

With all of that being said, the two picks we are most fond of this week are Michael Kim who appears on the verge of a leveling-up season and Lee Hodges who's odds are ridiculously long for a guy who finished T4 and T6 in his last two starts. He's also made four trips around the desert circuit with a T3 in 2022 so we know he has it in him to pick-up where our new favorite player who we couldn't pick out of a lineup left off last week. 

Place	Player	Odds
Winner	Ben Griffin	+2000
Top 5	Ryan Gerard	+950
Top 10	Michael Kim	+750
Top 10	J.T. Poston	+450
Top 20	Lee Hodges	+380

One and Done Pick: Ryan Gerard

We don't know much about Ryan 
Gerard and this may not even be
him but he sure looks like he has
a willowy confident stride.

Other Guy We'd Pick: J.T. Poston

Sleeper Pick: Lee Hodges 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Ben Griffin	$10,200
Sam Burns	$9,800
Harry Hall	$9,300
Si Woo Kim	$9,000
Rickie Fowler	$8,400
Davis Thompson	$8,200
J.T. Poston	$8,000
Michael Kim	$7,500
Alex Smalley	$7,400
Lee Hodges	$6,700

This week's chart honors the inevitable and stupid expansion of the world's most famous third-rate luxury golfing brand to America's newest territory. But beware the rabid arctic foxes in the summertime and fellas . . .  I am NOT talking about the cart girls . . . HEYOOOO!!!! 

THE TRUMP NATIONAL NUUK

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART 

Our most glaring omission would be Patrick Cantlay but he's a one and one pick lock at Riviera. However, if you want to throw him on a squad with some of our other value picks or put a couple ducats on him to finish top five at +500, we will most certainly not hold it against you. 

	DK Price	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Scottie Scheffler	$14,200	DNP	T17	T11	T25	MC
Patrick Cantlay	$10,400	T5	T52	T26	9th	2nd
Ludvig Aberg	$10,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ben Griffin	$10,200	T7	T9	T32	DNP	DNP
Sam Burns	$9,800	T29	T6	T11	DNP	MC
Russell Henley	$9,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	T14	MC
Matt Fitzpatrick	$9,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Robert Macintyre	$9,400	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harry Halll	$9,300	T21	MC	T41	DNP	T47
Sepp Straka	$9,200	1st	DNP	DNP	T49	MC
Harris English	$9,100	T43	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$9,000	T51	T25	T22	T11	1st
Taylor Pendrith	$8,900	DNP	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Alex Noren	$8,800	DNP	T25	DNP	MC	T40
Kurt Kitayama	$8,700	T58	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
M. Thorbjornsen	$8,600	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rasmuss Hojgaard	$8,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$8,400	T21	MC	T54	MC	T21
Min Woo Lee	$8,300	DNP	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Thompson	$8,200	T58	T21	2nd	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$8,100	T3	T34	T18	T49	DNP
J.T. Poston	$8,000	T12	T11	T6	T25	MC
Justin Rose	$7,900	DNP	DNP	T26	T33	DNP
Adam Scott	$7,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Daniel Berger	$7,800	T21	T39	DNP	DNP	DNP
Akshay Bhatia	$7,800	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	MC
Piercson Coody	$7,800	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$7,700	T12	MC	MC	T33	T47
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,700	MC	2nd	T11	T40	DNP
Rico Hoey	$7,700	T58	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$7,600	MC	T39	T50	13th	T54
Will Zalatoris	$7,600	T12	T34	T36	T6	DNP
Kevin Yu	$7,600	MC	T3	MC	DNP	DNP
Ryan Gerard	$7,600	T51	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Greyserman	$7,500	T7	T56	DNP	DNP	DNP
Denny McCarthy	$7,500	DNP	DNP	T50	T6	MC
Keith Mitchell	$7,500	T21	T9	T22	DNP	DNP
Michael Kim	$7,500	T43	T6	MC	DNP	MC
Brian Harman	$7,400	MC	DNP	MC	T3	T8
Alex Smalley	$7,400	11th	T21	T22	T25	DNP
Jacob Bridgeman	$7,400	T21	T39	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Homa	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T21
Samuel Stevens	$7,300	T51	T65	67th	DNP	DNP
Emilliano Grillo	$7,300	MC	DNP	MC	T63	T37
Matt Wallace	$7,300	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sami Valimaki	$7,300	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hao-Tong Li	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Andrew Novak	$7,200	MC	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Matthew McCarty	$7,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Vince Whaley	$7,200	T64	T34	DNP	T40	MC
Sahith Theegala	$7,200	DNP	DNP	T54	T33	DNP
John Keefer	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jhonattan Vegas	$7,100	MC	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Jesper Svensson	$7,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Rodgers	$7,100	70th	DNP	MC	T40	MC
Matti Schmid	$7,100	MC	MC	T6	DNP	DNP
John Parry	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kevin Roy	$7,100	T18	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Nick Dunlap	$7,000	T34	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$7,000	T58	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ricky Castillo	$7,000	T43	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Seamus Power	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	T14	DNP
William Mouw	$7,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Aldrich Potgieter	$7,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Nico Echavarria	$6,900	MC	T65	MC	DNP	DNP
Mac Meissner	$6,900	T68	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chris Kirk	$6,900	T34	T47	T3	MC	T16
Matt Kuchar	$6,900	T43	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Austin Eckroat	$6,900	DNP	T25	MC	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	T16
Neil Shipley	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Fishburn	$6,800	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$6,800	T21	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Doug Ghim	$6,800	T21	MC	MC	T59	T5
Lee Hodges	$6,700	T34	MC	MC	T3	DNP
Bud Cauley	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Riley	$6,700	MC	MC	T65	T59	DNP
Stephan Jaeger	$6,700	DNP	T52	T36	DNP	DNP
Tony Finau	$6,600	MC	T25	T16	T40	4th
Tom Kim	$6,600	MC	MC	T6	DNP	MC
Eric Cole	$6,600	T68	T21	T36	DNP	DNP
Mark Hubbard	$6,600	T12	T47	MC	DNP	MC
Max McGreavey	$6,600	MC	DNP	MC	MC	DNP
Sam Ryder	$6,600	T43	T62	MC	T49	T47
Tom Hoge	$6,500	T29	T17	T32	2nd	MC
Beau Hossler	$6,500	T12	T47	T50	DNP	MC
Carson Young	$6,500	T29	T17	MC	DNP	DNP
Taylor Moore	$6,500	T7	DNP	MC	T67	DNP
Adam Schenk	$6,400	W/D	MC	MC	MC	T37
Patton Kizzire	$6,400	MC	MC	T11	T22	53rd

Email the FGR here.