Tuesday, August 3, 2021

Fantasy Golf: WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational Preview

I am currently flying in a plane for the first time in over 16 months . . . a very late taking-off and packed to the gills plane. I generally prefer and sometimes demand strict silence when I'm writing yet today there are three people in the row directly behind me talking in such a confident manner that would initially suggest that they are smart when they are in fact complete imbeciles. 

I will therefore do my best to shield the writing content from the inane commentary that is currently wafting over my shoulder like a thick green fart cloud of stupidity. So as I sit here drinking my lukewarm Chinese restaurant coffee and eating my Chinese restaurant blueberry muffin (because the line for Starbucks wrapped around the concourse), I just wanted to let you know that all of these elements may affect the overall tone of this week's preview. And by "may affect" I mean . . . oh you know the fucking joke by now. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

There were a lot of strong candidates for this honor but, when the King of Twitter graces you with a reply to one of your tweets, that's a game, set and match situation. The exchange below was spawned by a random Twitter invitation from an author named Rebecca Makkai to "please tell me one fascinating thing about one of your grandparents." I of course chose the tragic tale of my grandfather over the fact that one of my grandmothers was an accomplished artist and the other played high school basketball like 75 years ago.


Fun fact. My other grandfather keeled over and died of a heart attack at 39. Just thought I'd lighten the mood a bit before writing about some golf. 

GOLF ANALYSIS FOR THE AIRBORNE AND INTELLECTUALLY CRIPPLED 

Brooks Koepka is the obvious pick this week but alas, I choked and used him at the British Open when either TPC Southwind or Kiawah were the obvious choices this year (to some).  I'm not going to run through every player I no longer have available as I've somehow managed to work my way into second place in this godforsaken one pick per week league that I've been trying to win for like five or ten years. That level of disclosure would be gambling suicide. 

I will, however, divulge the following: 

1. I've still got a couple bullets left in my gun and they're perfect fits for the courses where I have them slotted so watch your ass "Hosel Rockets" because "The Jerkstore" plans to close like Bobby Freakin' Finke (if you haven't watched him swim the 800M and 1500M yet, do yourself a favor); and 

2. This week I'm grappling with the options of Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Harris English, Billy Horschel and Phil Mickelson so, um, yeah. Issues. 

Right off the bat I'm ruling-out everyone who played in the Olympics. If you're going to ask me to pick between two players ranked top ten in the world and one of them just flew back from Japan, I'll take the other one. In short, if you want to take Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa, I'll take Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Louis Oosthuizen and Koepka for all the combined cash currently in my three kids' wallets which could range anywhere from $3 to about $475 depending on whether FGK2 left his wad at home or is rolling heavy. 

Speaking of Daniel Berger (huh?), he plays great here too and he just finished top ten at both the British Open and the U.S Open. I of course used him at the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he missed the cut before winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the following week. I thought I was over it. Apparently I was wrong.

The rest of the picks are pretty straightforward and mostly based on past performance. The one exception is Will Zalatoris. A couple guys from that $7,500 - $8,000 price range are going to crack the top ten and for me it came down to him, Jason Kokrak, Brian Harman or Harris English. I like Zalatoris based on a hunch and I like English based on his 2013 win in Memphis along with his recent performance. Full disclosure, I had Horschel as my pick but just switched it to English and you know how karma rewards indecision so choose wisely. 

And then we have two of the most intriguing sleepers of the year in Mickelson and Stewart Cink. Phil has three runner-ups at TPC Southwind including last year while Cink finished in the top ten in 2017 and 2018. Making Phil the pick of the week is such a tempting proposition (especially in a no-cut event) that I have not yet fully abandoned it. Hopefully I forget the idea altogether before vacation consumption blazes its usual trail to no fucks to give and I have absurd delusions of Phil holding-court on Sunday again. Good lord I'm like three Mai Tai's from that disaster. 

One and Done Pick: Harris English
Need you to come-up really big this
week buddy. Yes I mean you Harris.
I know it's weird. But here we are.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Brooks Koepka 

Sleeper Pick: Stewart Cink

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Brooks Koepka

$10,600

Jordan Spieth

$10,400

Daniel Berger

$9,200

Matthew Fitzpatrick

$8,800

Webb Simpson

$8,500

Will Zalatoris

$7,900

Harris English

$7,600

Billy Horschel

$7,100

Phil Mickelson

$6,600

Stewart Cink

$6,500


Not much to see at the bottom of the chart but sometimes it's what you can't see that matters which is tricky because you can't see it. That's why in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king and the tall man bumps his head a lot.

For example, Lee Westwood actually earned one of his two PGA Tour wins on this course in 2010. Would you know that from looking at this chart? No. But more importantly, is that fact relevant this week? Probably not. So there you go. 

                           THE REASON TIGERS EAT THEIR YOUNG IS 
                             CURRENTLY SITTING IN ROW 10, SEAT B
                                HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

 

DK Price

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Collin Morikawa

$11,000

T20

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Xander Schauffele

$10,800

T6

T27

DNP

T52

DNP

Brooks Koepka

$10,600

T2

1st

T30

T37

T2

Jordan Spieth

$10,400

T30

T12

DNP

DNP

DNP

Dustin Johnson

$10,200

T12

T20

1st

DNP

5th

Rory McIlroy

$10,000

T47

T4

DNP

DNP

DNP

Justin Thomas

$9,900

1st

T12

DNP

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$9,700

T59

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Louis Oosthuizen

$9,600

T6

T20

DNP

DNP

DNP

B. DeChambeau

$9,500

T30

T48

DNP

MC

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$9,400

T20

T43

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,300

T35

T12

DNP

MC

DNP

Daniel Berger

$9,200

T2

DNP

MC

1st

1st

Scottie Scheffler

$9,100

T15

DNP

T43

DNP

DNP

Paul Casey

$9,000

T67

T27

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tony Finau

$8,900

T65

T27

MC

DNP

DNP

Matthew Fitzpatrick

$8,800

T6

T4

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Reed

$8,700

T47

T12

DNP

DNP

DNP

Shane Lowry

$8,600

T6

DNP

T30

DNP

DNP

Webb Simpson

$8,500

T12

2nd

DNP

DNP

DNP

Joaquin Niemann

$8,400

T52

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Abraham Ancer

$8,300

T15

DNP

MC

DNP

T18

Cameron Smith

$8,200

T59

T12

DNP

DNP

DNP

Corey Conners

$8,100

T30

T27

68th

DNP

DNP

Tommy Fleetwood

$8,000

T35

T4

DNP

DNP

DNP

Will Zalatoris

$7,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jason Kokrak

$7,800

T44

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sungjae Im

$7,700

T35

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Harris English

$7,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

T10

T26

Brian Harman

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tyrrell Hatton

$7,400

T69

T43

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sergio Garcia

$7,300

T35

T40

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Scott

$7,200

DNP

T40

DNP

T10

DNP

Billy Horschel

$7,100

T25

T9

T51

T4

DNP

Marc Leishman

$7,100

T52

3rd

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ian Poulter

$7,000

T69

8th

DNP

T31

DNP

Justin Rose

$7,000

DNP

11th

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Davis

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sam Burns

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Kisner

$6,800

T25

T27

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matthew Wolff

$6,800

T49

T24

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Champ

$6,700

T25

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Carlos Ortiz

$6,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Max Homa

$6,700

T52

T61

DNP

MC

DNP

Lee Westwood

$6,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Phil Mickelson

$6,600

T2

57th

DNP

9th

T2

Kevin Na

$6,500

T35

T43

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ryan Palmer

$6,500

T15

DNP

T51

MC

DNP

Stewart Cink

$6,500

DNP

DNP

T4

T10

T65

Lucas Glover

$6,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP


Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

No comments: