Fantasy Golf: The Masters Preview

One of the few (if not only) benefits of writing a golf blog for a limited local audience is that you can occasionally use it to share information with a bunch of people at one time that you don't feel like sharing over and over again in person. I hear social media serves the same purpose but not when your audience is a bunch of middle aged dudes who 97% of their shopping at pro shops and liquor stores. (The other 3% is when they go to the mall with their wives once a year just so they can say "I'm never making THAT mistake again").

In this case, the information I need to share is the fact that I broke my left arm playing lacrosse last week. There, now everyone can respond "what a fucking idiot!" and I don't have to hear it.

In my defense, it was wrought by a total unsolicited cheapshot (at least I think it was unsolicited) as opposed to the kind of on field negligence that caused my broken ribs last January and my broken hand the fall before that. And no, I do not see any of this as a sign that I should change my behavior. I will not be intimidated in these negotiations and let the terrorists win. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

We don't get Tiger this week so here's the next best thing. A Tiger tweet that's not about Tiger (and not actually a tweet) but it is about a tiger and it came from a tweet by @shay3322 who's profile is . . . 

Coffee, whiskey, and yoga. A little bit country & a little bit rock ‘n roll. Expect sarcasm, memes, & shenanigans. 

She had me at coffee and whiskey. "Shenanigans" just made me want to marry her. 

GOLF ANALYSIS THAT USES A MACHETE TO CUT THROUGH RED TAPE

Before we get to this year's analysis, I would be remiss if I didn't take this opportunity to revisit last year's preview in which I wrote:

So with that in mind, the FGR predicts that one of last year's three runner-ups is going to break through with DJ being the most likely after his strong showing in Houston last week. You could argue that his "A" game is better than anyone else's "A" game and there is no way that his final resume is only going to include one major win. I wouldn't be surprised if he won by 4+ shots this year. 

Let's just take a moment to sit back and appreciate the greatness of that. 

Just a bit longer.

OK feel free to keep gazing in awe but we need to move on.

I need to share a few caveats before we get started. First, I'm never going to pick Bryson to win this tournament as a matter of principle. Second, I still don't think Rory McIlroy is ever going to wear the green jacket. (I used to feel the same way about Justin Thomas but . . . ahem . . . more on that in a minute). And finally, I believe that Phil Mickelson is going to make one more run. But not this year.

Let's just cut to the chase and kill the drama that I so craftily built-up in the last paragraph. The pick this week is Justin Thomas. Sure I know last year I wrote that he has less of a chance to win than Rory but what can I say? I changed my mind because (a) I believe he is the best player in the world, and (b) the other best player in the world is probably coming into this thinking "didn't I just win this thing a few months ago?" 

Also, Thomas has played the Masters five times and improved his finish every year going T39, T22, T17, T12 and 4th. That's what we in the prognosticating business like to call incremental improvement or a learning curve or trending upward or something. Whatever it is, I am swayed by it.

As always, there's a lot of value between $9,000 and $10,000 with every player in that range bringing a certain amount of intrigue (arguably one of the five most worthless throw away sentences I've ever written). Unfortunately, I can't pick them all so I'm narrowing it down to Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson and (barf) Patrick Reed. Three somewhat chalky picks but hey, it's a pretty chalky tournament. 

We need a couple of young dudes and I'm going with Victor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler by putting a lot of stock in the results from the WGC-Workday Championship where Hovland finished T2 with a quadruple bogey and Scheffler finished 5th. And yes, I know I'm ignoring Colin Morikawa who actually won that tournament. Shut up.  

Now we get to the REAL value guys and, in this tournament, they're lurking everywhere. Bullet points activate!!!

• Adam Scott has only missed two cuts here since 2002 and they were way back in 2004 and 2009. Not to mention he's won the damn thing. 
• Abraham Ancer made his Masters debut last year and tied for 13th. He has all the signs of a guy who's going to grind his way to a lot of top 20s at Augusta over the years. Think a much cooler Zach Johnson. I know, it's hard to imagine.
• Corey Conners might be one of the most underrated players in the world right now. Then again, he's Canadian which makes him so inherently underrated that he's overrated (because who really expects anything from a Canadian). Anyway, he's made the cut the last two years and finished in T10 in November.
• From 2010 to 2019, Matt Kuchar never missed a cut here, only failed to make the top 30 once and had four top 10's. And he missed the cut last year which is a bonus because using the Benny Hill bomb on a plane theory,* the chances of him missing the cut this year are now infinitesimal.

You could  make equally as, if not more compelling cases for plenty of other guys like Jason Day , Mark Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, Francisco Molinari and Ian Poulter. As always, let your conscience be your guide (says the guy picking Patrick Reed). And if that doesn't work, just do what I do. Guess. 

One and Done Pick: Justin Thomas

I'm pretty sure no one objects
to the cancelation of this look.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth

Sleeper Pick: Matt Kuchar

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Justin Thomas	$10,600
Jordan Spieth	$9,400
Patrick Reed	$9,300
Webb Simpson	$9,000
Viktor Hovland	$8,700
Scottie Scheffler	$8,400
Adam Scott	$7,600
Abraham Ancer	$7,400
Corey Conners	$6,900
Matt Kuchar	$6,800

There is simply no greater historical performance chart in all of golf. I mean look at all the pretty colors on that damn thing. And this week I'm naming it in honor of the FGR's official sports performance drink of 2021. White Claw made an offer I couldn't refuse so Tito's is out. Not to mention, the carbonation is very refreshing. 

                                         THE WHITE CLAW AND GATORADE

                                        HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

	DK Price	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Dustin Johnson	$11,500	1st	T2	T10	DNP	T4
Jon Rahm	$11,000	T7	T9	4th	T27	DNP
Bryson DeChambeau	$10,800	T34	T29	T38	DNP	T21
Justin Thomas	$10,600	4th	T12	T17	T22	T39
Rory McIlroy	$10,200	T5	T21	T5	T7	T10
Xander Schauffele	$10,000	T17	T2	T50	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,800	T17	T9	MC	DNP	DNP
Collin Morikawa	$9,600	T44	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$9,400	T46	T21	3rd	T11	T2
Patrick Reed	$9,300	T10	T36	1st	MC	T49
Brooks Koepka	$9,200	T7	T2	DNP	T11	T21
Tony Finau	$9,100	T38	T5	T10	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$9,000	T10	T5	T20	MC	T29
Tyrell Hatton	$8,900	MC	T56	T44	MC	DNP
Lee Westwood	$8,800	T38	DNP	DNP	T22	T2
Viktor Hovland	$8,700	DNP	T32	DNP	MC	MC
Sungjae Im	$8,600	T2	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Daniel Berger	$8,500	DNP	DNP	T32	T27	T10
Scottie Scheffler	$8,400	T19	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,300	T13	T32	19th	T11	T7
Cameron Smith	$8,200	T2	T51	T5	DNP	T55
Mattew Fitzpatrick	$8,100	T46	T21	T38	32nd	T7
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,000	T19	T36	T17	MC	DNP
Sergio Garcia	$7,900	DNP	MC	MC	1st	T35
Bubba Watson	$7,800	57th	T12	T5	MC	T37
Paul Casey	$7,700	T38	MC	T15	6th	T4
Adam Scott	$7,600	T34	T18	T32	T9	T42
Jason Day	$7,500	MC	T5	T20	T22	T10
Louis Oosthuizen	$7,500	T23	T29	T12	T41	T15
Abraham Ancer	$7,400	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Joaquin Niemann	$7,400	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Will Zalatoris	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T42
Justin Rose	$7,200	T23	MC	T12	2nd	T10
Billy Horschel	$7,200	T38	T56	MC	DNP	T17
Matthew Wolff	$7,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Homa	$7,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Shane Lowry	$7,000	T25	MC	DNP	MC	T39
Francesco Molinari	$7,000	MC	T5	T20	T33	DNP
Victor Perez	$7,000	T46	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Kokrak	$6,900	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Marc Leishman	$6,900	T13	T49	9th	T43	MC
Corey Conners	$6,900	T10	T46	DNP	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$6,800	MC	T32	MC	MC	DNP
Matt Kuchar	$6,800	MC	T12	T28	T4	T24
Ian Poulter	$6,800	T25	T12	T44	DNP	T49
Brian Harman	$6,800	DNP	DNP	T44	DNP	DNP
Kevin Kisner	$6,700	MC	T21	T28	T43	DNP
Dylan Frittelli	$6,700	T5	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$6,700	T34	T21	T24	MC	DNP
C. Bezuidenhout	$6,700	T38	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Phil Mickelson	$6,600	T55	T18	T36	T22	MC
Cameron Champ	$6,600	T19	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Danny Willett	$6,600	T25	MC	MC	MC	1st
Kevin Na	$6,500	T13	T46	DNP	MC	DNP
Ryan Palmer	$6,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
B. Wiesberger	$6,400	58th	DNP	T24	T43	T34
Matt Wallace	$6,400	T46	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lanto Griffin	$6,400	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Zach Johnson	$6,300	T51	T58	T36	MC	MC
Charl Schwartzel	$6,300	T25	MC	MC	3rd	MC
Brendon Todd	$6,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Henrik Stenson	$6,200	MC	T36	T5	MC	T24

Footnote

* The theory basically states that the odds against there being a bomb on a plane are a million to one, and the odds against there being two bombs on a plane are two million to one. So next time you fly, take a bomb and cut the odds in half. I have extrapolated that to determine that Kuchar will absolutely make the cut this year.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.