Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Fantasy Golf: The Masters Preview

One of the few (if not only) benefits of writing a golf blog for a limited local audience is that you can occasionally use it to share information with a bunch of people at one time that you don't feel like sharing over and over again in person. I hear social media serves the same purpose but not when your audience is a bunch of middle aged dudes who 97% of their shopping at pro shops and liquor stores. (The other 3% is when they go to the mall with their wives once a year just so they can say "I'm never making THAT mistake again").

In this case, the information I need to share is the fact that I broke my left arm playing lacrosse last week. There, now everyone can respond "what a fucking idiot!" and I don't have to hear it.

In my defense, it was wrought by a total unsolicited cheapshot (at least I think it was unsolicited) as opposed to the kind of on field negligence that caused my broken ribs last January and my broken hand the fall before that. And no, I do not see any of this as a sign that I should change my behavior. I will not be intimidated in these negotiations and let the terrorists win. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

We don't get Tiger this week so here's the next best thing. A Tiger tweet that's not about Tiger (and not actually a tweet) but it is about a tiger and it came from a tweet by @shay3322 who's profile is . . . 

Coffee, whiskey, and yoga. A little bit country & a little bit rock ‘n roll. Expect sarcasm, memes, & shenanigans. 

She had me at coffee and whiskey. "Shenanigans" just made me want to marry her. 



GOLF ANALYSIS THAT USES A MACHETE TO CUT THROUGH RED TAPE

Before we get to this year's analysis, I would be remiss if I didn't take this opportunity to revisit last year's preview in which I wrote:

So with that in mind, the FGR predicts that one of last year's three runner-ups is going to break through with DJ being the most likely after his strong showing in Houston last week. You could argue that his "A" game is better than anyone else's "A" game and there is no way that his final resume is only going to include one major win. I wouldn't be surprised if he won by 4+ shots this year. 

Let's just take a moment to sit back and appreciate the greatness of that. 

Just a bit longer.

OK feel free to keep gazing in awe but we need to move on.

I need to share a few caveats before we get started. First, I'm never going to pick Bryson to win this tournament as a matter of principle. Second, I still don't think Rory McIlroy is ever going to wear the green jacket. (I used to feel the same way about Justin Thomas but . . . ahem . . . more on that in a minute). And finally, I believe that Phil Mickelson is going to make one more run. But not this year.

Let's just cut to the chase and kill the drama that I so craftily built-up in the last paragraph. The pick this week is Justin Thomas. Sure I know last year I wrote that he has less of a chance to win than Rory but what can I say? I changed my mind because (a) I believe he is the best player in the world, and (b) the other best player in the world is probably coming into this thinking "didn't I just win this thing a few months ago?" 

Also, Thomas has played the Masters five times and improved his finish every year going T39, T22, T17, T12 and 4th. That's what we in the prognosticating business like to call incremental improvement or a learning curve or trending upward or something. Whatever it is, I am swayed by it.

As always, there's a lot of value between $9,000 and $10,000 with every player in that range bringing a certain amount of intrigue (arguably one of the five most worthless throw away sentences I've ever written). Unfortunately, I can't pick them all so I'm narrowing it down to Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson and (barf) Patrick Reed. Three somewhat chalky picks but hey, it's a pretty chalky tournament. 

We need a couple of young dudes and I'm going with Victor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler by putting a lot of stock in the results from the WGC-Workday Championship where Hovland finished T2 with a quadruple bogey and Scheffler finished 5th. And yes, I know I'm ignoring Colin Morikawa who actually won that tournament. Shut up.  

Now we get to the REAL value guys and, in this tournament, they're lurking everywhere. Bullet points activate!!!

  • Adam Scott has only missed two cuts here since 2002 and they were way back in 2004 and 2009. Not to mention he's won the damn thing. 
  • Abraham Ancer made his Masters debut last year and tied for 13th. He has all the signs of a guy who's going to grind his way to a lot of top 20s at Augusta over the years. Think a much cooler Zach Johnson. I know, it's hard to imagine.
  • Corey Conners might be one of the most underrated players in the world right now. Then again, he's Canadian which makes him so inherently underrated that he's overrated (because who really expects anything from a Canadian). Anyway, he's made the cut the last two years and finished in T10 in November.
  • From 2010 to 2019, Matt Kuchar never missed a cut here, only failed to make the top 30 once and had four top 10's. And he missed the cut last year which is a bonus because using the Benny Hill bomb on a plane theory,* the chances of him missing the cut this year are now infinitesimal.

You could  make equally as, if not more compelling cases for plenty of other guys like Jason Day , Mark Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, Francisco Molinari and Ian Poulter. As always, let your conscience be your guide (says the guy picking Patrick Reed). And if that doesn't work, just do what I do. Guess. 

One and Done Pick: Justin Thomas
I'm pretty sure no one objects
to the cancelation of this look.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth

Sleeper Pick: Matt Kuchar

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Justin Thomas

$10,600

Jordan Spieth

$9,400

Patrick Reed

$9,300

Webb Simpson

$9,000

Viktor Hovland

$8,700

Scottie Scheffler

$8,400

Adam Scott

$7,600

Abraham Ancer

$7,400

Corey Conners

$6,900

Matt Kuchar

$6,800


There is simply no greater historical performance chart in all of golf. 
I mean look at all the pretty colors on that damn thing. And this week I'm naming it in honor of the FGR's official sports performance drink of 2021. White Claw made an offer I couldn't refuse so Tito's is out. Not to mention, the carbonation is very refreshing. 

                                         THE WHITE CLAW AND GATORADE
                                        HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

 

DK Price

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Dustin Johnson

$11,500

1st

T2

T10

DNP

T4

Jon Rahm

$11,000

T7

T9

4th

T27

DNP

Bryson DeChambeau

$10,800

T34

T29

T38

DNP

T21

Justin Thomas

$10,600

4th

T12

T17

T22

T39

Rory McIlroy

$10,200

T5

T21

T5

T7

T10

Xander Schauffele

$10,000

T17

T2

T50

DNP

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,800

T17

T9

MC

DNP

DNP

Collin Morikawa

$9,600

T44

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$9,400

T46

T21

3rd

T11

T2

Patrick Reed

$9,300

T10

T36

1st

MC

T49

Brooks Koepka

$9,200

T7

T2

DNP

T11

T21

Tony Finau

$9,100

T38

T5

T10

DNP

DNP

Webb Simpson

$9,000

T10

T5

T20

MC

T29

Tyrell Hatton

$8,900

MC

T56

T44

MC

DNP

Lee Westwood

$8,800

T38

DNP

DNP

T22

T2

Viktor Hovland

$8,700

DNP

T32

DNP

MC

MC

Sungjae Im

$8,600

T2

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Daniel Berger

$8,500

DNP

DNP

T32

T27

T10

Scottie Scheffler

$8,400

T19

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,300

T13

T32

19th

T11

T7

Cameron Smith

$8,200

T2

T51

T5

DNP

T55

Mattew Fitzpatrick

$8,100

T46

T21

T38

32nd

T7

Tommy Fleetwood

$8,000

T19

T36

T17

MC

DNP

Sergio Garcia

$7,900

DNP

MC

MC

1st

T35

Bubba Watson

$7,800

57th

T12

T5

MC

T37

Paul Casey

$7,700

T38

MC

T15

6th

T4

Adam Scott

$7,600

T34

T18

T32

T9

T42

Jason Day

$7,500

MC

T5

T20

T22

T10

Louis Oosthuizen

$7,500

T23

T29

T12

T41

T15

Abraham Ancer

$7,400

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Joaquin Niemann

$7,400

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Will Zalatoris

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Harris English

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

T42

Justin Rose

$7,200

T23

MC

T12

2nd

T10

Billy Horschel

$7,200

T38

T56

MC

DNP

T17

Matthew Wolff

$7,100

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Max Homa

$7,100

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Shane Lowry

$7,000

T25

MC

DNP

MC

T39

Francesco Molinari

$7,000

MC

T5

T20

T33

DNP

Victor Perez

$7,000

T46

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jason Kokrak

$6,900

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Marc Leishman

$6,900

T13

T49

9th

T43

MC

Corey Conners

$6,900

T10

T46

DNP

DNP

DNP

Gary Woodland

$6,800

MC

T32

MC

MC

DNP

Matt Kuchar

$6,800

MC

T12

T28

T4

T24

Ian Poulter

$6,800

T25

T12

T44

DNP

T49

Brian Harman

$6,800

DNP

DNP

T44

DNP

DNP

Kevin Kisner

$6,700

MC

T21

T28

T43

DNP

Dylan Frittelli

$6,700

T5

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Si Woo Kim

$6,700

T34

T21

T24

MC

DNP

C. Bezuidenhout

$6,700

T38

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Phil Mickelson

$6,600

T55

T18

T36

T22

MC

Cameron Champ

$6,600

T19

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Danny Willett

$6,600

T25

MC

MC

MC

1st

Kevin Na

$6,500

T13

T46

DNP

MC

DNP

Ryan Palmer

$6,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

B. Wiesberger

$6,400

58th

DNP

T24

T43

T34

Matt Wallace

$6,400

T46

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Lanto Griffin

$6,400

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Zach Johnson

$6,300

T51

T58

T36

MC

MC

Charl Schwartzel

$6,300

T25

MC

MC

3rd

MC

Brendon Todd

$6,200

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Henrik Stenson

$6,200

MC

T36

T5

MC

T24


Footnote

The theory basically states that the odds against there being a bomb on a plane are a million to one, and the odds against there being two bombs on a plane are two million to one. So next time you fly, take a bomb and cut the odds in half. I have extrapolated that to determine that Kuchar will absolutely make the cut this year.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

No comments: