Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Fantasy Golf: The Players Championship Preview

There are two kinds of golfers: (1) those who don't like TPC Sawgrass, and (2) those who tolerate TPC Sawgrass. As I've previously noted in every version of this preview I've ever written so it does not bear repeating but I'm going to do it anyway, if Tiger Woods had 16 healthy professional starts on your golf course and only won twice with just three other top tens, your golf course sucks at identifying the best player. And let's just say that, despite a recent run of respectable winners, having the washed-up on a beach carcasses of the players that used to be Jimmy Walker and Jim Furyk finish runner-up in 2018 and 2019 did not sit well with the jury.

But that is what it is and, for all it's failings, Sawgrass usually puts on a good show. Except for 2018 when Webb Simpson won by 4 shots or 2017 when Si Woo Kim won by 3 or 2016 when Jason Day won by 4 . . . let's just move on.

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Again not a tweet per se this week but something that is getting tweeted a lot. This is the opening two paragraphs from the Irish Times' review of the interview with Prince Harry and Meghan Markle. I will never look at the queen and not see an Ewok again.


GOLF ANALYSIS WITH A SIDE OF TATER TOTS*

The key to picking this tournament is to find those guys who fall into the "tolerate TPC Sawgrass" category. That group used to include such luminaries as Luke Donald, Stephen Ames and Ben Crane. Fortunately, they have now been upgraded to the likes of Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day, all of whom make this week's list. As does Adam Scott who has four top 12 finishes in a row which is effectively running the table on this course and, even with odds at +8000, he's a great value in any format. 


It looks like we can add Tommy Fleetwood to the mix after his T5 - T7 finishes in his last two trips. Forget that his play has been just above-average lately. Sawgrass guys tend to find their games in Ponte Vedra Beach along with a lot of volatile Uber drivers who have very strong political opinions (as I found out the hard way). 

Sergio Garcia is playing just well enough lately for his 2008 win and two runner-up finishes to be enticing. Same with Ian Poulter who's record isn't that impressive but at least he plays every year and makes cuts which is more than you can say for anyone else in that price range. Abraham Ancer just has Sawgrass grinder guy written all over him. It's not intended as an insult even though it kind of is.

Keegan Bradley gets the nod at sleeper over Brian Harman (more on him below) though I wouldn't fault you for throwing a blind dart at someone like Wyndham Clark, Henrik Norlander or Victor Perez because you know someone you never heard of is going to be on that leaderboard come Sunday. In 2019 that guy was Eddie Pepperell who came into the tournament ranked 43rd in the world, finished tied for 3rd and is now ranked 169th. (You've made your point).       

"Did he really pick me? Really? Shite!"
One and Done Pick: Rory McIlroy

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jon Rahm 

Sleeper Pick: Keegan Bradley

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy

$10,600

Webb Simpson

$9,500

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,700

Adam Scott

$8,100

Jason Day

$8,000

Tommy Fleetwood

$7,900

Sergio Garcia

$7,500

Abraham Ancer

$7,500

Ian Poulter

$7,100

Keegan Bradly

$6,900

The dearth of colored boxes scattered throughout the chart below is yet another testament to the randomness of the results this tournament produces. Once you get past Francesco Molinari, Brian Harman is the only  player with more than one top ten in the last five years. His other six finishes at Sawgrass are T51, T53, T54 and three missed cuts. He should change his name to Random McRandomface and become the poster child for this event. Couldn't be any worse than there other ad campaigns. (OK sir now we're going to have to ask you to leave).**  

                                            THE ANTI-CHAOS THEORY
                                    HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

 

DK Price

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Dustin Johnson

$11,200

T5

T17

T12

T28

T69

Jon Rahm

$10,900

T12

T63

T72

DNP

DNP

Rory McIlroy

$10,600

1st

MC

T35

T12

T8

Xander Schauffele

$10,300

MC

T2

DNP

DNP

DNP

Justin Thomas

$9,900

T35

T11

T75

T3

T24

Daniel Berger

$9,800

T67

T57

T65

T9

MC

B. DeChambeau

$9,700

T20

T37

DNP

DNP

DNP

Webb Simpson

$9,500

T16

1st

T16

DNP

T66

Colin Morikawa

$9,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$9,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,200

MC

T23

T22

DNP

DNP

Tony Finau

$9,100

T22

T57

MC

MC

DNP

Patrick Reed

$9,000

T47

T41

T22

MC

T24

Scottie Scheffler

$8,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,700

T8

MC

T22

T7

T17

Jordan Spieth

$8,600

MC

T41

MC

MC

MC

Tyrell Hatton

$8,500

MC

MC

T41

DNP

DNP

Paul Casey

$8,400

MC

DNP

T22

T23

W/D

Sungjae Im

$8,300

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matthew Fitzpatrick

$8,200

T41

T46

MC

MC

DNP

Adam Scott

$8,100

T12

T11

T6

T12

T38

Jason Day

$8,000

T8

T5

T60

1st

MC

Tommy Fleetwood

$7,900

T5

T7

T41

DNP

DNP

Cameron Smith

$7,900

T56

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

Justin Rose

$7,800

T8

T23

T65

T19

MC

Louis Oosthuizen

$7,800

T56

MC

T2

T28

T69

Joaquin Niemann

$7,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Billy Horschel

$7,700

T26

T37

MC

T28

T13

Jason Kokrak

$7,700

T47

T46

MC

W/D

MC

Francesco Molinari

$7,600

T56

MC

T6

T7

DNP

Max Homa

$7,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Will Zalatoris

$7,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Sergio Garcia

$7,500

T22

70th

T30

T54

T2

Marc Leishman

$7,500

MC

T63

MC

T64

T24

Abraham Ancer

$7,500

T12

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Harris English

$7,500

MC

MC

MC

MC

MC

Rickie Fowler

$7,400

T47

MC

T60

MC

1st

Carlos Ortiz

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

DNP

Corey Connors

$7,400

T41

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Russell Henley

$7,400

MC

MC

T35

MC

T24

Kevin Na

$7,300

78th

T46

W/D

MC

T6

Bubba Watson

$7,300

T56

T57

MC

T43

T42

Sam Burns

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ryan Palmer

$7,300

MC

T23

MC

T23

MC

Lanto Griffin

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Kuchar

$7,200

T26

T17

82nd

T3

MC

Kevin Kisner

$7,200

T22

MC

T56

MC

T2

Si Woo Kim

$7,200

T56

T63

1st

T23

DNP

Lee Westwood

$7,200

DNP

DNP

T65

DNP

MC

Cameron Tringale

$7,200

DNP

DNP

T35

T16

DNP

Shane Lowry

$7,100

MC

T46

MC

T16

MC

Ian Poulter

$7,100

T56

T11

T2

T57

T30

Brendon Todd

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

T51

Cameron Davis

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

C. Bezuidenhout

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Jones

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

Byeon Hun An

$7,000

T26

T30

DNP

MC

DNP

Phil Mickelson

$7,000

MC

MC

T41

MC

MC

Talor Gooch

$7,000

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Alex Noren

$7,000

MC

T17

10th

DNP

DNP

Branden Grace

$7,000

T72

T46

T48

T57

T42

Chris Kirk

$7,000

T56

T46

T12

W/D

T13

Sebastian Munoz

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Hadwin

$6,900

MC

T57

T30

T39

MC

Keegan Bradley

$6,900

T16

T7

T60

T35

MC

Brian Harman

$6,900

T8

MC

T53

T54

T8

Maverick McNealy

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Wyndham Clark

$6,900

DQ

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Victor Perez

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Gary Woodland

$6,800

T30

MC

T75

T28

MC

Ryan Moore

$6,800

T20

T30

MC

MC

MC

B. Wiesberger

$6,800

DNP

DNP

T12

T49

MC

Russell Knox

$6,800

T35

MC

MC

T19

T17

Charley Hoffman

$6,800

MC

MC

T30

MC

T30

Kevin Streelman

$6,800

MC

MC

T72

T74

MC

Zach Johnson

$6,800

MC

T75

T48

T54

T13

Henrik Stenson

$6,700

MC

T23

T16

MC

T17

Brendan Steele

$6,700

MC

T79

T6

T57

MC

Emiliano Grillo

$6,700

T26

T37

11th

MC

DNP

Harold Varner, III

$6,700

MC

T7

T35

T57

DNP

Henrik Norlander

$6,700

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Charles Howell, III

$6,600

T35

T17

DNP

MC

T56

Chez Reavie

$6,500

MC

T30

T56

MC

DNP

Lucas Glover

$6,500

MC

T72

T6

DNP

DNP

Brandt Snedeker

$6,400

T5

MC

DNP

MC

MC

Joel Dahmen

$6,300

T12

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Andrew Putnam

$6,300

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP


Footnote

* I ordered food that randomly came with tater tots this weekend and I'm here to tell you that they are one seriously under fucking rated side dish. I'm not sure who is out there botching the promotion of tater tots but they should be ashamed of themselves for letting their client take a backseat to mac 'n cheese, onion rings and mashed potatoes. If tater tots were a British Invasion band, they'd be The Kinks. 

** Hey I made it through this whole preview without mentioning that I hit the 17th green and two-putted for a par. (Footnotes don't count). 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

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