Fantasy Golf: The Players Championship Preview

There are two kinds of golfers: (1) those who don't like TPC Sawgrass, and (2) those who tolerate TPC Sawgrass. As I've previously noted in every version of this preview I've ever written so it does not bear repeating but I'm going to do it anyway, if Tiger Woods had 16 healthy professional starts on your golf course and only won twice with just three other top tens, your golf course sucks at identifying the best player. And let's just say that, despite a recent run of respectable winners, having the washed-up on a beach carcasses of the players that used to be Jimmy Walker and Jim Furyk finish runner-up in 2018 and 2019 did not sit well with the jury.

But that is what it is and, for all it's failings, Sawgrass usually puts on a good show. Except for 2018 when Webb Simpson won by 4 shots or 2017 when Si Woo Kim won by 3 or 2016 when Jason Day won by 4 . . . let's just move on.

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Again not a tweet per se this week but something that is getting tweeted a lot. This is the opening two paragraphs from the Irish Times' review of the interview with Prince Harry and Meghan Markle. I will never look at the queen and not see an Ewok again.

GOLF ANALYSIS WITH A SIDE OF TATER TOTS*

The key to picking this tournament is to find those guys who fall into the "tolerate TPC Sawgrass" category. That group used to include such luminaries as Luke Donald, Stephen Ames and Ben Crane. Fortunately, they have now been upgraded to the likes of Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day, all of whom make this week's list. As does Adam Scott who has four top 12 finishes in a row which is effectively running the table on this course and, even with odds at +8000, he's a great value in any format. 

It looks like we can add Tommy Fleetwood to the mix after his T5 - T7 finishes in his last two trips. Forget that his play has been just above-average lately. Sawgrass guys tend to find their games in Ponte Vedra Beach along with a lot of volatile Uber drivers who have very strong political opinions (as I found out the hard way). 

Sergio Garcia is playing just well enough lately for his 2008 win and two runner-up finishes to be enticing. Same with Ian Poulter who's record isn't that impressive but at least he plays every year and makes cuts which is more than you can say for anyone else in that price range. Abraham Ancer just has Sawgrass grinder guy written all over him. It's not intended as an insult even though it kind of is.

Keegan Bradley gets the nod at sleeper over Brian Harman (more on him below) though I wouldn't fault you for throwing a blind dart at someone like Wyndham Clark, Henrik Norlander or Victor Perez because you know someone you never heard of is going to be on that leaderboard come Sunday. In 2019 that guy was Eddie Pepperell who came into the tournament ranked 43rd in the world, finished tied for 3rd and is now ranked 169th. (You've made your point).       

"Did he really pick me? Really? Shite!"

One and Done Pick: Rory McIlroy

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jon Rahm 

Sleeper Pick: Keegan Bradley

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy	$10,600
Webb Simpson	$9,500
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,700
Adam Scott	$8,100
Jason Day	$8,000
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,900
Sergio Garcia	$7,500
Abraham Ancer	$7,500
Ian Poulter	$7,100
Keegan Bradly	$6,900

The dearth of colored boxes scattered throughout the chart below is yet another testament to the randomness of the results this tournament produces. Once you get past Francesco Molinari, Brian Harman is the only  player with more than one top ten in the last five years. His other six finishes at Sawgrass are T51, T53, T54 and three missed cuts. He should change his name to Random McRandomface and become the poster child for this event. Couldn't be any worse than there other ad campaigns. (OK sir now we're going to have to ask you to leave).**  

                                            THE ANTI-CHAOS THEORY
                                    HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

	DK Price	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Dustin Johnson	$11,200	T5	T17	T12	T28	T69
Jon Rahm	$10,900	T12	T63	T72	DNP	DNP
Rory McIlroy	$10,600	1st	MC	T35	T12	T8
Xander Schauffele	$10,300	MC	T2	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Thomas	$9,900	T35	T11	T75	T3	T24
Daniel Berger	$9,800	T67	T57	T65	T9	MC
B. DeChambeau	$9,700	T20	T37	DNP	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$9,500	T16	1st	T16	DNP	T66
Colin Morikawa	$9,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$9,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,200	MC	T23	T22	DNP	DNP
Tony Finau	$9,100	T22	T57	MC	MC	DNP
Patrick Reed	$9,000	T47	T41	T22	MC	T24
Scottie Scheffler	$8,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,700	T8	MC	T22	T7	T17
Jordan Spieth	$8,600	MC	T41	MC	MC	MC
Tyrell Hatton	$8,500	MC	MC	T41	DNP	DNP
Paul Casey	$8,400	MC	DNP	T22	T23	W/D
Sungjae Im	$8,300	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$8,200	T41	T46	MC	MC	DNP
Adam Scott	$8,100	T12	T11	T6	T12	T38
Jason Day	$8,000	T8	T5	T60	1st	MC
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,900	T5	T7	T41	DNP	DNP
Cameron Smith	$7,900	T56	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$7,800	T8	T23	T65	T19	MC
Louis Oosthuizen	$7,800	T56	MC	T2	T28	T69
Joaquin Niemann	$7,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$7,700	T26	T37	MC	T28	T13
Jason Kokrak	$7,700	T47	T46	MC	W/D	MC
Francesco Molinari	$7,600	T56	MC	T6	T7	DNP
Max Homa	$7,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Will Zalatoris	$7,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sergio Garcia	$7,500	T22	70th	T30	T54	T2
Marc Leishman	$7,500	MC	T63	MC	T64	T24
Abraham Ancer	$7,500	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$7,500	MC	MC	MC	MC	MC
Rickie Fowler	$7,400	T47	MC	T60	MC	1st
Carlos Ortiz	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Corey Connors	$7,400	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Russell Henley	$7,400	MC	MC	T35	MC	T24
Kevin Na	$7,300	78th	T46	W/D	MC	T6
Bubba Watson	$7,300	T56	T57	MC	T43	T42
Sam Burns	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ryan Palmer	$7,300	MC	T23	MC	T23	MC
Lanto Griffin	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Kuchar	$7,200	T26	T17	82nd	T3	MC
Kevin Kisner	$7,200	T22	MC	T56	MC	T2
Si Woo Kim	$7,200	T56	T63	1st	T23	DNP
Lee Westwood	$7,200	DNP	DNP	T65	DNP	MC
Cameron Tringale	$7,200	DNP	DNP	T35	T16	DNP
Shane Lowry	$7,100	MC	T46	MC	T16	MC
Ian Poulter	$7,100	T56	T11	T2	T57	T30
Brendon Todd	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	T51
Cameron Davis	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Jones	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	MC
Byeon Hun An	$7,000	T26	T30	DNP	MC	DNP
Phil Mickelson	$7,000	MC	MC	T41	MC	MC
Talor Gooch	$7,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Alex Noren	$7,000	MC	T17	10th	DNP	DNP
Branden Grace	$7,000	T72	T46	T48	T57	T42
Chris Kirk	$7,000	T56	T46	T12	W/D	T13
Sebastian Munoz	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$6,900	MC	T57	T30	T39	MC
Keegan Bradley	$6,900	T16	T7	T60	T35	MC
Brian Harman	$6,900	T8	MC	T53	T54	T8
Maverick McNealy	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$6,900	DQ	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Victor Perez	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$6,800	T30	MC	T75	T28	MC
Ryan Moore	$6,800	T20	T30	MC	MC	MC
B. Wiesberger	$6,800	DNP	DNP	T12	T49	MC
Russell Knox	$6,800	T35	MC	MC	T19	T17
Charley Hoffman	$6,800	MC	MC	T30	MC	T30
Kevin Streelman	$6,800	MC	MC	T72	T74	MC
Zach Johnson	$6,800	MC	T75	T48	T54	T13
Henrik Stenson	$6,700	MC	T23	T16	MC	T17
Brendan Steele	$6,700	MC	T79	T6	T57	MC
Emiliano Grillo	$6,700	T26	T37	11th	MC	DNP
Harold Varner, III	$6,700	MC	T7	T35	T57	DNP
Henrik Norlander	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Charles Howell, III	$6,600	T35	T17	DNP	MC	T56
Chez Reavie	$6,500	MC	T30	T56	MC	DNP
Lucas Glover	$6,500	MC	T72	T6	DNP	DNP
Brandt Snedeker	$6,400	T5	MC	DNP	MC	MC
Joel Dahmen	$6,300	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$6,300	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP

Footnote

* I ordered food that randomly came with tater tots this weekend and I'm here to tell you that they are one seriously under fucking rated side dish. I'm not sure who is out there botching the promotion of tater tots but they should be ashamed of themselves for letting their client take a backseat to mac 'n cheese, onion rings and mashed potatoes. If tater tots were a British Invasion band, they'd be The Kinks. 

** Hey I made it through this whole preview without mentioning that I hit the 17th green and two-putted for a par. (Footnotes don't count). 

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