Fantasy Golf: The Sony Open Preview

Getting to this week's preview a little late as I'm in the midst of a semi-vacation on an island off the west coast of Florida where you can apparently charge $100 a head to play a muni track that would run you $18 on Hillside Road in northwest Baltimore. When you fork over that kind of scratch, you don't expect Brittany behind the counter to say "the second key on the cart is for the bathroom on 15 sweetheart." 

At least they had just top dressed the greens with enough sand to extinguish an oil rig fire. And it was 58 degrees. And raining. And I had a hangnail. But I really can't complain. Let's move on.

TWEET OF THE WEEK

This was the least political tweet I "liked" last week so things are going great in the land of the free and the home of the chat room insurrectionists. 

TOTALLY FUCKING RELAXED ON VACATION GOLF ANALYSIS

So last week's picks were more than a bit disappointing as Dustin Johnson meandered in with an opening 71 and never really seemed to engage after that. I also whiffed badly on the lower tier opting for Marc Leishman and Cameron Champ only to see Harris English and Joaquin Niemann do what I reasonably expected those other guys to do.   

To get back on track this week, I'm literally (quite literally in fact) picking most of the same guys I picked for this event last year. My 2020 results were marginal at best so logic would dictate that the same players have nowhere to go but up (unless they go down). 

Webb Simpson feels like the obvious pick because you should always go with Webb Simpson when he's playing a Webb Simpson course which this is. However, Sungjae Im and Colin Morikawa are just better players right now and probably want it a bit more so I'm giving them the edge. 

Aside from Charles Howell, III who you have to pick per Hawaiian law, the rest are kind of hunchy with some built-in past performance bias. The fact is that we're probably looking at a Tom Hoge - James Hahn - Matthew NeSmith shootout in which case you could have a time machine and three crystal balls and still wouldn't convince yourself to get this one right. 

Hopefully I'm wrong because this might be the last tournament before the civil war. Then again, the Tour doesn't come east until March so hopefully we can wrap it up by then.  

Just imagine how good you
have to be to win money
while wearing that shirt.

One and Done Pick: Sungjae Im

Other Guy I'd Pick: Colin Morikawa

Sleeper Pick: Hudson Swafford 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Webb Simpson	$11,100
Collin Morikawa	$10,600
Sungjae Im	$9,800
Lanto Griffin	$8,100
Charles Howell, III	$8,000
Brian Harman	$7,800
Russell Knox	$7,400
Tom Hoge	$7,300
Brian Stuard	$6,900
Hudson Swafford	$6,800

Aside from the player's noted above, Kevin Kisner, Zach Johnson and Chez Reavie also have multiple top tens in the last years. I've color coded the chart below to make it easier to see that relatively useless information.

 
                                     THE BAROMETRIC BUZZKILL
                             HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART 

	DK Price	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Webb Simpson	$11,100	3rd	DNP	T4	T13	T13
Harris English	$10,800	DNP	T22	64th	MC	T56
Collin Morikawa	$10,600	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Joaquin Niemann	$10,400	T57	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$10,200	T12	T51	DNP	T27	DNP
Daniel Berger	$10,000	T38	DNP	T14	T45	T42
Sungjae Im	$9,800	T21	T16	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Smith	$9,600	1st	T22	T18	T27	T81
Abraham Ancer	$9,400	T38	T29	MC	DNP	DNP
Ryan Palmer	$9,200	T4	DNP	T58	MC	T13
Adam Scott	$9,000	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	T56
Kevin Kisner	$8,800	T4	T69	T25	T4	T5
Russell Henley	$8,700	MC	66th	MC	T13	MC
Billy Horschel	$8,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	68t	MC
Zach Johnson	$8,500	T28	MC	T14	T6	T9
Matt Kuchar	$8,400	MC	1st	DNP	DNP	T13
Sergio Garcia	$8,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brendon Todd	$8,200	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Lanto Griffin	$8,100	T7	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Charles Howell, III	$8,000	T12	T8	T32	T8	T13
Erik Van Rooyen	$8,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$7,900	T21	T22	T47	DNP	T33
Marc Leishman	$7,900	T28	T3	T47	T20	T28
Brian Harman	$7,800	T32	MC	T4	T20	T13
Sebastian Munoz	$7,800	MC	T10	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Kokrak	$7,700	DNP	DNP	T47	DNP	DNP
Patton Kizzire	$7,700	MC	T13	1st	DNP	MC
Keegan Bradley	$7,600	T12	T29	T39	MC	MC
Si Woo Kim	$7,600	DNP	MC	T58	DNP	4th
Talor Gooch	$7,600	T63	MC	T18	DNP	DNP
Carlos Ortiz	$7,500	T53	T29	DNP	DNP	DNP
Mackenzie Hughes	$7,500	MC	MDF	MC	T27	DNP
Chez Reavie	$7,400	MC	T3	T18	T8	T42
Matthew NeSmith	$7,400	T32	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rory Sabbatini	$7,400	T21	T33	T32	T45	MC
Russell Knox	$7,400	T32	T43	T10	T11	MC
J.T. Poston	$7,300	MC	T20	DNP	T64	DNP
James Hahn	$7,300	MC	MC	2nd	T36	T28
Scott Piercy	$7,300	T45	T33	T25	T57	DNP
Tom Hoge	$7,300	T12	MC	3rd	DNP	MC
Brandt Snedeker	$7,200	T12	T16	DNP	MC	2nd
Cameron Davis	$7,200	T9	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jim Furyk	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kyle Stanley	$7,200	MC	T22	T10	T36	T13
Stewart Cink	$7,200	DNP	T20	T32	T36	T42
Brendan Steele	$7,100	2nd	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Charley Hoffman	$7,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Briand Stuard	$6,900	T53	T8	T4	T45	DNP
Danny Lee	$6,800	DNP	71st	MC	DNP	T33
Hudson Swafford	$6,800	T57	T3	T54	T13	T9
Pat Perez	$6,800	T45	MC	DNP	T69	T81
Richy Werenski	$6,800	DNP	DNP	MC	T49	DNP
Robert Streb	$6,800	MC	MC	MC	T49	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$6,700	T57	2nd	T69	DNP	DNP
Brian Gay	$6,700	MC	T22	T58	T13	MC
Vaughn Taylor	$6,600	T12	MC	76th	T57	DNP
Jimmy Walker	$6,500	T45	T51	MC	MC	T13
Ryan Armour	$6,500	MC	T22	T39	DNP	DNP
Sung Kang	$6,400	MC	T10	DNP	MC	MC

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