Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Fantasy Golf: Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview

After recommending Marc Leishman (1st), Jon Rahm (2nd), Brandt Snedeker (T3), Tony Finau (T6) and Keegan Bradley (T16) last week, this is the part where I start to look at my hands in wonder like a young super hero who has just discovered his powers. Of course that kid inevitably flies straight into the side of a building but hey, at least he could fly. Can you fucking fly? I didn't think so.  

And if my recent success wasn't enough to motivate me, I just now like an hour ago returned the FootJoy Arc golf shoes that my kids got me for Christmas (tepid golf clap for that effort) and traded way up for a pair of Addidas TOUR360 XT-SL's that I assume are going to finally give me that 360 degree shot dispersion that I've been seeking for 30 years. They also bring me one step closer (see what I did there) to my ultimate goal of being the Sergio Garcia of my club. At this point I think I've alienated enough people to qualify. Just need to work on the accent. And the spitting. But before I get to that . . .    


TWEET OF THE WEEK


Same here . . . but come on, you know we're going to Applebee's. 
Me calling Chili’s to make a dinner reservation for my bachelor party: pic.twitter.com/TYEUw7eBrK
ACTUAL EXPERT GOLF ANALYSIS?

You're not going to find many tournaments with a more consistently performing top tier than this one. Even when you include Tony Finau who apparently just shows-up so he can play for two days and then get flat pickled on the weekend, over the past five years the top nine players per DraftKings have combined for four wins and eight other top fives with a whole bunch of top twenty finishes sprinkled in. Unfortunately, we can't take them all home with us so tough choices must be made. Not all puppies go to heaven kids. I don't make the rules. 


So who should you pick? Well Hideki Matsuyama is a given. Especially coming-off of the two disappointing years that followed his ridiculous T4, T2, win, win run from 2014-2017. He's had a solid stretch of golf since the FedEx Cup and you'd be hard pressed to find a player/course combo that is more inviting than Hideki at TPC Boozedale©. In fact, I'm guaranteeing that he finishes top five or I'll never drink tequila again. Then again my birthday two weeks ago may have taken care of that. In related news, I'm changing my name to Dennis Celery. Long story.

We're skipping the rest of the high-priced options including defending champ and leaderboard regular Rickie Fowler who just seems kind of off these days. Instead we're diving into the Infiniti/Lexus level class for Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar and Bubba Watson. This could be another nice stepping stone win for Schauffele on his way to the inevitable major. Kuch is a great fit because now we know that he's really a preening phony so it's no wonder that he performs well on this over-hyped stage. And good Bubba seems to be showing-up for 2020 which means he'll definitely be a threat at the courses he loves like Augusta, Rivieria and TPC Highlands and also has to be strongly considered at the courses he really likes such as this one where he finished T4 last year and had a great run from 2012-2015 (T5, 15th, T2 and T2). 

Now it starts to get a bit trickier. We need a young birdie machine so do you go with Colin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland or Matthew Wolff? Morikawa is a bit overpriced and Wolff has been kind of erratic. I took a hard look at Hovland who I still think is going to be the best of the bunch in the long run but you can't ignore what Scheff (that's what we insiders call him) has been doing lately racking-up three top fives in his last five events. So he's our guy.

From there we're playing it safe with Cameron Smith, Russell Knox, Brendan Steele and Martin Laird. If you want to toy around with a Daniel Berger, Jason Kokrak or J.B. Holmes in that price range, you won't catch any shit from me. I'm sure they are all fine people and you'll be very happy together. More on the sleeper pick in a minute.  

This is what happens when you let all of
the damn car stereo salesmen sit together.
One and Done Pick: Matsuyama

Other Guy I'd Pick: Schauffele


Sleeper Pick: Chesson Hadley


DraftKings Top Ten Values


Hideki Matsuyama
$10,100
Xander Schauffele
$9,900
Matt Kuchar
$9,400
Bubba Watson
$9,000
Scottie Scheffler
$8,500
Cameron Smith
$8,100
Russell Knox
$7,700
Brandan Steele
$7,500
Martin Lair
$7,200
Chesson Hadley
$6,900

As noted with Matt Kuchar, the WMPO favors the preening schmo so Chesson Hadley gets the nod by a mile this week over the more understated likes of Brian Stuard, Kyle Stanley and Russell Henley. Twitter swing guru Max Homa was a strong runner-up. 

                             THE COORS LIGHT YOU CAN'T DRINK ENOUGH 
                                 TO START A BAR FIGHT SO THERE'S THAT
                                      HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Jon Rahm
$11,400
T10
T11
T16
T5
DNP
Justin Thomas
$11,200
3rd
T17
MC
MC
T17
Rickie Fowler
$10,500
1st
T11
T4
2nd
T46
Webb Simpson
$10,300
T20
MC
2nd
T14
DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
$10,100
T15
W/D
1st
1st
T2
Xander Schauffele
$9,900
T10
T17
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tony Finau
$9,600
MC
MC
MC
MC
T22
Matt Kuchar
$9,400
T4
T5
T9
DNP
T30
Gary Woodland
$9,300
T7
1st
MC
T33
MC
Colin Morikawa
$9,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
B. DeChambeau
$9,100
DNP
T5
DNP
DNP
DNP
Bubba Watson
$9,000
T4
T40
MC
T14
T2
Brandt Snedeker
$8,900
T55
T23
DNP
T33
T10
Sungjae Im
$8,800
T7
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Branden Grace
$8,700
2nd
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jordan Spieth
$8,600
DNP
MC
T9
DNP
T7
Scottie Scheffler
$8,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Viktor Hovland
$8,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Chez Reavie
$8,300
T4
2nd
MC
MC
MC
Ryan Palmer
$8,200
T60
MC
MC
T24
T2
Cameron Smith
$8,100
T15
T48
T42
MC
DNP
Matthew Wolff
$8,000
T50
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Ryan Moore
$8,000
MC
MC
T61
T11
T17
Corey Connors
$7,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jason Kokrak
$7,900
T20
T31
MC
MC
T40
Brian Harman
$7,800
T39
DNP
T24
T58
T66
Daniel Berger
$7,800
MC
T11
T7
T58
T10
Keegan Bradley
$7,700
T67
T43
MC
T24
T17
Russell Knox
$7,700
T10
MC
MC
MC
T15
Byeon Hun An
$7,600
T20
T23
6th
DNP
DNP
J.T. Poston
$7,600
T26
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Na
$7,600
T60
T48
T16
T24
T26
Andrew Putnam
$7,500
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brendan Steele
$7,500
MC
T3
T16
T17
T26
Bud Cauley
$7,500
T26
MC
T47
DNP
DNP
Vaughn Taylor
$7,500
MC
T11
T52
DNP
DNP
Billy Horschel
$7,400
T39
T43
T24
T24
T30
Charley Hoffman
$7,400
T20
T26
T24
T51
T53
J.B. Holmes
$7,400
T26
MC
T24
T6
T66
Beau Hossler
$7,300
T39
T17
DNP
DNP
DNP
Emiliano Grillo
$7,300
T33
T57
T63
T45
DNP
Harris English
$7,300
MC
MC
T57
3rd
T40
Zach Johnson
$7,300
T39
T57
T12
T14
T10
Adam Hadwin
$7,200
T44
T43
T12
T17
MC
Martin Laird
$7,200
T26
T9
T7
T41
T5
Max Homa
$7,100
T26
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Scott Piercy
$7,100
T20
MC
73
T45
MC
Sung Kang
$7,100
MC
MC
T12
DNP
DNP
Kyle Stanley
$7,000
MC
MC
T36
T45
MC
Russell Henley
$7,000
T15
MC
T16
MC
T59
Chesson Hadley
$6,900
T20
T5
DNP
T60
MC
Brian Gay
$6,700
T55
T9
T47
64th
DNP
Brian Stuard
$6,600
T55
T65
T16
DNP
T10

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

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