Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Fantasy Golf: The Sony Open Preview

New year same old shit. You're not going to find two more obvious picks than Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele at the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions yet I chose to look elsewhere in the name of iconoclasm and stupidity. Of course I had Thomas as my "Other Guy I'd Pick" which is code for "Guy I Was Going to Pick Before Overthinking It." I haven't done it yet because it would probably be too painful but I'm pretty confident that if you compared the season of my 2019 "One and Done" picks with that of my "Other Guy I'd Pick," the Other Guys would win by a couple million bucks. (Speaking of which, if you still haven't seen The Other Guys with Will Ferrell despite my repeated recommendations on this site, then I'm just not sure this is going to work-out between us). 

But hey, this is a new week and I am nothing if not malleable so am I picking the clear-cut favorite Justin Thomas to win? Fuck no. That's just what they're expecting me to do. (Um, who's "they"?) Not to mention, he's not THAT obvious a pick just because he won here in 2017 and has some other quality finishes. Do you really want to risk wasting arguably the best player in the world at a tournament that is won by a Patton Kizzire, Fabian Gomez or rookie Russell Henley for every time it's won by a Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar and Thomas? No you do not.

Instead I would recommend James Frederick Webb Simpson (I looked it up really hoping his name was "Webster" because that's a really funny name for not a diminutive 80's sitcom character). Frederick is playing great and this is his kind of track so, unless you were planing to save him for Harbour Town, I'd pull the trigger. Looking down the price list there are a handful of guys you are obliged to consider because of their top ten machine like nature at Waialae. They include Charles Howell, III, Chez Reavie and Brian Stuard. Horses for courses and all that if you know what I mean . . . and I think you do.

The sleeper options frankly all kind of look the same with the usual hit or miss guys like Scott Piercy, Ryan Armour and Keith Mitchell but I'm going with Kyle Stanley and Sung Kang because I had a dream last night about riding the bumper cars at Hershey Park and they were both in it. Crazy right? I was very tempted to reach deep for Jerry Kelly because his record here is almost unrivaled dating back to his win in 2002 but it's getting harder and harder to rationalize picking guys older than me. Probably because there are only like three of them left.    

Can I just get a damn sign to guide
me this week? Something? Anything?
One and Done Pick: Webb Simpson

Other Guy I'd Pick: Collin Morikawa


Sleeper Pick: Sung Kang


DraftKings Top Ten Values


Webb Simpson
$11,100
Collin Morikawa
$10,300
Sungjae Im
$9,600
Charles Howell, III
$9,100
Cameron Smith
$8,500
Chez Reavie
$8,400
Brian Stuard
$7,900
Lanto Griffin
$7,500
Kyle Stanley
$7,000
Sung Kang
$6,900

For those new to the mind-blowing (and/or numbing) experience that is the Fantasy Golf Report, every week I provide five years worth of results for the 40-50 players I considered picking. This usually includes at least the twenty favorites along with twenty or so more guys who I think represent "value" based on a good track record at the course or a recent trend of solid play. For example, I did not consider Graeme McDowell this week because he's only played the event once in the past five years and he missed the cut. I also think he's a bit of a douche.  

                         THE BILL O'BRIEN COACHING TO KIND OF WIN
                                 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Justin Thomas
$12,000
T16
T14
1st
MC
T6
Webb Simpson
$11,100
DNP
T4
T13
T13
T13
Patrick Reed
$10,800
T13
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
H. Matsuyama
$10,500
T51
DNP
T27
DNP
T78
Collin Morikawa
$10,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matt Kuchar
$9,900
1st
DNP
DNP
T13
T3
Sungjae Im
$9,600
T16
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
J. Niemann
$9,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Marc Leishman
$9,200
T3
T47
T20
T28
T37
Charles Howell
$9,100
T8
T32
T8
T13
T26
Abraham Ancer
$9,000
T29
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
Corey Connors
$8,900
T3
T39
DNP
DNP
DNP
Alex Noren
$8,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brandt Snedeker
$8,600
T16
DNP
MC
2nd
DNP
Cameron Smith
$8,500
T22
T18
T27
T81
DNP
Chez Reavie
$8,400
T3
T18
T8
T42
T26
Brendon Todd
$8,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
T44
Brian Harman
$8,200
MC
T4
T20
T13
T13
J.T. Poston
$8,100
T20
DNP
T64
DNP
DNP
Andrew Putnam
$8,000
2nd
T69
DNP
DNP
MC
Briand Stuard
$7,900
T8
T4
T45
DNP
MC
Sebastian Munoz
$7,900
T10
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Aaron Wise
$7,800
DNP
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
Russell Knox
$7,800
T43
T10
T11
MC
T13
Emiliano Grillo
$7,600
T22
T47
DNP
T33
DNP
Rory Sabbatini
$7,600
T33
T32
T45
MC
T6
Kevin Na
$7,500
DNP
MC
T36
T28
T64
Lanto Griffin
$7,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Ryan Palmer
$7,500
DNP
T58
MC
T13
DNP
Zach Johnson
$7,400
MC
T14
T6
T9
T64
Brian Gay
$7,200
T22
T58
T13
MC
DNP
Keegan Bradley
$7,200
T29
T39
MC
MC
DNP
Scott Piercy
$7,100
T33
T25
T57
DNP
2nd
Kyle Stanley
$7,000
T22
T10
T36
T13
DNP
Ryan Armour
$7,000
T22
T39
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patton Kizzire
$6,900
T13
1st
DNP
MC
DNP
Sung Kang
$6,900
T10
DNP
MC
MC
DNP
Keith Mitchell
$6,800
T16
T25
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jerry Kelly
$6,200
MC
T14
MC
T9
T6

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

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