New year same old shit. You're not going to find two more obvious picks than Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele at the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions yet I chose to look elsewhere in the name of iconoclasm and stupidity. Of course I had Thomas as my "Other Guy I'd Pick" which is code for "Guy I Was Going to Pick Before Overthinking It." I haven't done it yet because it would probably be too painful but I'm pretty confident that if you compared the season of my 2019 "One and Done" picks with that of my "Other Guy I'd Pick," the Other Guys would win by a couple million bucks. (Speaking of which, if you still haven't seen The Other Guys with Will Ferrell despite my repeated recommendations on this site, then I'm just not sure this is going to work-out between us).
But hey, this is a new week and I am nothing if not malleable so am I picking the clear-cut favorite Justin Thomas to win? Fuck no. That's just what they're expecting me to do. (Um, who's "they"?) Not to mention, he's not THAT obvious a pick just because he won here in 2017 and has some other quality finishes. Do you really want to risk wasting arguably the best player in the world at a tournament that is won by a Patton Kizzire, Fabian Gomez or rookie Russell Henley for every time it's won by a Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar and Thomas? No you do not.
Instead I would recommend James Frederick Webb Simpson (I looked it up really hoping his name was "Webster" because that's a really funny name for not a diminutive 80's sitcom character). Frederick is playing great and this is his kind of track so, unless you were planing to save him for Harbour Town, I'd pull the trigger. Looking down the price list there are a handful of guys you are obliged to consider because of their top ten machine like nature at Waialae. They include Charles Howell, III, Chez Reavie and Brian Stuard. Horses for courses and all that if you know what I mean . . . and I think you do.
The sleeper options frankly all kind of look the same with the usual hit or miss guys like Scott Piercy, Ryan Armour and Keith Mitchell but I'm going with Kyle Stanley and Sung Kang because I had a dream last night about riding the bumper cars at Hershey Park and they were both in it. Crazy right? I was very tempted to reach deep for Jerry Kelly because his record here is almost unrivaled dating back to his win in 2002 but it's getting harder and harder to rationalize picking guys older than me. Probably because there are only like three of them left.
One and Done Pick: Webb Simpson
Other Guy I'd Pick: Collin Morikawa
Sleeper Pick: Sung Kang
DraftKings Top Ten Values
For those new to the mind-blowing (and/or numbing) experience that is the Fantasy Golf Report, every week I provide five years worth of results for the 40-50 players I considered picking. This usually includes at least the twenty favorites along with twenty or so more guys who I think represent "value" based on a good track record at the course or a recent trend of solid play. For example, I did not consider Graeme McDowell this week because he's only played the event once in the past five years and he missed the cut. I also think he's a bit of a douche.
THE BILL O'BRIEN COACHING TO KIND OF WIN
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
But hey, this is a new week and I am nothing if not malleable so am I picking the clear-cut favorite Justin Thomas to win? Fuck no. That's just what they're expecting me to do. (Um, who's "they"?) Not to mention, he's not THAT obvious a pick just because he won here in 2017 and has some other quality finishes. Do you really want to risk wasting arguably the best player in the world at a tournament that is won by a Patton Kizzire, Fabian Gomez or rookie Russell Henley for every time it's won by a Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar and Thomas? No you do not.
Instead I would recommend James Frederick Webb Simpson (I looked it up really hoping his name was "Webster" because that's a really funny name for not a diminutive 80's sitcom character). Frederick is playing great and this is his kind of track so, unless you were planing to save him for Harbour Town, I'd pull the trigger. Looking down the price list there are a handful of guys you are obliged to consider because of their top ten machine like nature at Waialae. They include Charles Howell, III, Chez Reavie and Brian Stuard. Horses for courses and all that if you know what I mean . . . and I think you do.
The sleeper options frankly all kind of look the same with the usual hit or miss guys like Scott Piercy, Ryan Armour and Keith Mitchell but I'm going with Kyle Stanley and Sung Kang because I had a dream last night about riding the bumper cars at Hershey Park and they were both in it. Crazy right? I was very tempted to reach deep for Jerry Kelly because his record here is almost unrivaled dating back to his win in 2002 but it's getting harder and harder to rationalize picking guys older than me. Probably because there are only like three of them left.
 |
| Can I just get a damn sign to guide me this week? Something? Anything? |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Collin Morikawa
Sleeper Pick: Sung Kang
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Webb Simpson
|
$11,100
|
Collin Morikawa
|
$10,300
|
Sungjae Im
|
$9,600
|
Charles Howell, III
|
$9,100
|
Cameron Smith
|
$8,500
|
Chez Reavie
|
$8,400
|
Brian Stuard
|
$7,900
|
Lanto Griffin
|
$7,500
|
Kyle Stanley
|
$7,000
|
Sung Kang
|
$6,900
|
For those new to the mind-blowing (and/or numbing) experience that is the Fantasy Golf Report, every week I provide five years worth of results for the 40-50 players I considered picking. This usually includes at least the twenty favorites along with twenty or so more guys who I think represent "value" based on a good track record at the course or a recent trend of solid play. For example, I did not consider Graeme McDowell this week because he's only played the event once in the past five years and he missed the cut. I also think he's a bit of a douche.
THE BILL O'BRIEN COACHING TO KIND OF WIN
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2019
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
|
Justin Thomas
|
$12,000
|
T16
|
T14
|
1st
|
MC
|
T6
|
Webb Simpson
|
$11,100
|
DNP
|
T4
|
T13
|
T13
|
T13
|
Patrick Reed
|
$10,800
|
T13
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
H. Matsuyama
|
$10,500
|
T51
|
DNP
|
T27
|
DNP
|
T78
|
Collin Morikawa
|
$10,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$9,900
|
1st
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T13
|
T3
|
Sungjae Im
|
$9,600
|
T16
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
J. Niemann
|
$9,400
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Marc Leishman
|
$9,200
|
T3
|
T47
|
T20
|
T28
|
T37
|
Charles Howell
|
$9,100
|
T8
|
T32
|
T8
|
T13
|
T26
|
Abraham Ancer
|
$9,000
|
T29
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Corey Connors
|
$8,900
|
T3
|
T39
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Alex Noren
|
$8,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$8,600
|
T16
|
DNP
|
MC
|
2nd
|
DNP
|
Cameron Smith
|
$8,500
|
T22
|
T18
|
T27
|
T81
|
DNP
|
Chez Reavie
|
$8,400
|
T3
|
T18
|
T8
|
T42
|
T26
|
Brendon Todd
|
$8,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T44
|
Brian Harman
|
$8,200
|
MC
|
T4
|
T20
|
T13
|
T13
|
J.T. Poston
|
$8,100
|
T20
|
DNP
|
T64
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Andrew Putnam
|
$8,000
|
2nd
|
T69
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Briand Stuard
|
$7,900
|
T8
|
T4
|
T45
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Sebastian Munoz
|
$7,900
|
T10
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Aaron Wise
|
$7,800
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Russell Knox
|
$7,800
|
T43
|
T10
|
T11
|
MC
|
T13
|
Emiliano Grillo
|
$7,600
|
T22
|
T47
|
DNP
|
T33
|
DNP
|
Rory Sabbatini
|
$7,600
|
T33
|
T32
|
T45
|
MC
|
T6
|
Kevin Na
|
$7,500
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T36
|
T28
|
T64
|
Lanto Griffin
|
$7,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Ryan Palmer
|
$7,500
|
DNP
|
T58
|
MC
|
T13
|
DNP
|
Zach Johnson
|
$7,400
|
MC
|
T14
|
T6
|
T9
|
T64
|
Brian Gay
|
$7,200
|
T22
|
T58
|
T13
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Keegan Bradley
|
$7,200
|
T29
|
T39
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Scott Piercy
|
$7,100
|
T33
|
T25
|
T57
|
DNP
|
2nd
|
Kyle Stanley
|
$7,000
|
T22
|
T10
|
T36
|
T13
|
DNP
|
Ryan Armour
|
$7,000
|
T22
|
T39
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Patton Kizzire
|
$6,900
|
T13
|
1st
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Sung Kang
|
$6,900
|
T10
|
DNP
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Keith Mitchell
|
$6,800
|
T16
|
T25
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jerry Kelly
|
$6,200
|
MC
|
T14
|
MC
|
T9
|
T6
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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