As we hit the traditional golf season milestone that is Masters week, let's take stock of the Fantasy Golf Report. Today is Tuesday, April 9th. I have made one decent pick in the last eight weeks and even that was tainted because it was me opting for Tommy Fleetwood at The Players over Rory McIlroy. Highlights of my fuck-up streak include not making the obvious picks of Dustin Johnson at the WGC-Mexico, Paul Casey at the Valspar Championship and, most recently, Charley Hoffman at the Texas Open. You'd have to try pretty hard to blow all three of those picks and the effort level driving my futility is peaking right now. I'm like a high motor college linebacker at the NFL Combine only I have short arms, ran a 5.2 and I just tripped over a cone while trying to cover a coach on a walk-through.
Oh but that's not all. I am currently DFL in a fantasy golf league that I created and traditionally dominate based on my unique combination of golf acumen, luck and subtle rules manipulation. Player selection in this league is based on an auction format where I could literally have had any one or two players I wanted yet I somehow wound-up with an enigmatic roster from hell that includes Bryson DeChambeau, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley and recent addition Haotong Li. Suffice it to say I've got a lot riding on the Masters because a few weeks from now Tiger and Hideki could be in traction and Phil could be in front of a college recruiting scandal grand jury with his palms up saying "I don't know how all of these bad people keep finding me."
And the third leg of this failure trifecta is the fact that I've only played one actual live round since January and I'm pretty sure that distance from the game is impairing my golf IQ. I normally pride myself on not just the ability but the desire to play in any conditions but the weather in Baltimore over the last five months has ranged from windswept post-apocalyptic nuclear winter holocaust to non-stop torrential rain the likes of which no one has ever seen outside of the time someone thought it would be a good idea to do a heist movie starring Morgan Freeman and Christian Slater that would be indistinguishable from every other heist movie only wait for it . . . the whole thing takes place in a steady downpour. If I told you that they called it Hard Rain, you wouldn't believe me so let's just continue.*
My point (to the extent I have one) is that I am due. I have to be. Even a blind squirrel gets laid wearing a funny hat in the woods every once in a while right? Alright Golf Babes, take us out.
@GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS
There are certain players who have a unique affinity for Augusta National. I know I'm telling you something you already know but I needed a way to start this section and nothing establishes my credibility as a golf expert right out of the gate like stating the obvious. It's simply the product of opining about a sport where the objective is to hit a ball into a hole with a stick. How else do you explain ever word uttered on the Golf Channel?
The key to this exercise is to find the guys at the three-way intersection of (1) past Masters success, (2) recent form and (3) gambling value. If you scroll way down, you'll find the standard FGR historical performance chart from the past five years but, for the Masters, I find the following chart which depicts aggregate scoring over the past five years to be more helpful. It's fairly straightforward with the only tweak being that, if a player missed the cut, I gave him a score around the cut line and I capped all scores for that year at the same number because who am I of all people to penalize a guy for having a rough weekend? (Right Eddie Pepperell?) But we're not worried about the guys who missed a bunch of cuts anyway. The value of this chart is how it vividly ranks guys who've played 20+ rounds over the last five years. See for yourself.
The bottom line is that I don't give a rat's ass how off his game Jordan Spieth has been lately. At 20 to 1 and $8,900 on DraftKings, he is a steal. Load-up the cart with him like he's half-priced Aqua Velva at Costco. The same is true of Matt Kuchar ($7,900) and Charley Hoffman ($6,800). And I would have said that before Kuch just finished runner-up at the Match Play and Hoffman did the same at the Texas Open. The fact that they're coming-in hot only makes me that much more confident (says the barefoot guy who keeps stepping-on a Lego).
After we get those three obvious picks out of the way, we have some tough choices to make. The first is at the top where we have Rory, D.J. and Rose all poised to win their first green jacket. You kind of get the feeling that each of them is going to get one so the question then becomes who gets his first? I'm ruling-out DJ this year because he's the least likely of the three to win one having never really contended. (Don't be fooled by the T4 in 2016 as he didn't finish any round better than three back). That leaves Rory or Rose and frankly it's a toss-up. Rory is hotter but Rose has had the more legitimate title runs. I'm going with Rose. I picked him last year and he finished T12 with his "B" game. I don't think he brings that two years in a row.
Down a tier we have a logjam of legitimate contenders that includes Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day, Paul Casey, Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama, Francesco Molinari, Xander Schauffele and Adam Scott. You only get to pick two of those guys (my rules) and I've tried to come-up with any conceivable reason not to make Casey one of them because I don't trust him but he sure is comfortable here and, when Casey is comfortable, he's easily one of the ten best players in the world if not one of the top five. He's not going to win but he's a virtual lock for a first page of the leaderboard finish.
Hideki loves Augusta almost as much as Casey and his solid recent form has flown a bit under the radar. Also, as you will see in the DraftKings top ten values, I think we're due for a minor Asian invasion this week. As for the other mid-tiers guys, here are my quick hits on why I'm opting out: Fleetwood (too combustible); Day (missed his window); Bubba (in one of those quirky Bubba funks); Molinari (classic one major guy); Schauffele (a year or two away); and Scott (another classic one major guy).
And I would have the undisputed world's worst fantasy golf website if I didn't devote at least a couple paragraphs to Tiger and Phil (and even then I might still have the world's worst fantasy golf website). Tiger is overrated as usual with most having him with the fourth best odds behind the three favorites I discussed above when there is no way he should be ranked ahead of Spieth, Casey, Rickie Fowler and probably Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas (more on Fowler, Rahm and Thomas later), Day, Watson and Matsuyama. Yes he is one of the three greatest Masters players of all-time along with Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer but he hasn't had a top ten since 2013 and he hasn't exactly been tearing it up this year though his near-miss final four at the Match Play was definitely a positive sign. I give him a 50/50 shot at a top ten.
Phil on the other hand is underrated. I think I write this every year and I will continue to write it until they bury him behind the 12th tee after he inevitably double-crosses the mob. Phil has finished 7th or better at Augusta fourteen times and, during one ten year stretch from 2001-2010, he had eight top five finishes including three wins. He also shot -14 and finished T2 as recently as 2015. He's stunk the most recent five times he's teed it up in 2019 but the last time he played a course he loves as much as Augusta, he won at Pebble Beach. I have a feeling he could make a run this year but his downside is a total flameout so I can't pick him ahead of guys like Matsuyama and Kuchar. I'd really like to but I can't.
One and Done Pick: Justin Rose
Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth
Sleeper Pick: Si Woo Kim
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Let's use this vacant space to talk about a few of the guys I've ignored. Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler are all capable of winning but this generation will have its Nick Price, Ernie Els and Greg Norman because there are only so many green jackets to go around. Especially these days when you start handing them out to the likes of Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia and Danny Willett. Brooks Koepka definitely has the game to win one but he seems even more disengaged than usual these days so let's consider him down the road.
And that brings us to Bryson DeChambeau. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he's going to end-up with multiple green jackets in his closet. If we're making historical comparisons, let's go with Bernhard Langer. However, I absolutely refuse to even consider the possibility that we are going to be subjected to Patrick Reed putting a green jack on Bryson DeChambeau the year after Sergio Garcia put a green jacket on Patrick Reed. No, no, no and a thousand times more no. If that happens I will go into a seventy-two hour state of denial where my answer to everything will simply be "fuck-off" which may present some issues on the college tour with my son the next day and my ensuing attempt to pass-through airport security. Best case scenario I just spend the day in a catatonic state like I do after a Patriots Super Bowl win but please God. Just no.
THE DAN JENKINS MEMORIAL
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Footnote
* So many great nuggets about this movie that I never knew and now I'm glad I do:
 |
| "I would only ask this jury to focus on what really matters. My faux sincerity and this green jacket." |
And the third leg of this failure trifecta is the fact that I've only played one actual live round since January and I'm pretty sure that distance from the game is impairing my golf IQ. I normally pride myself on not just the ability but the desire to play in any conditions but the weather in Baltimore over the last five months has ranged from windswept post-apocalyptic nuclear winter holocaust to non-stop torrential rain the likes of which no one has ever seen outside of the time someone thought it would be a good idea to do a heist movie starring Morgan Freeman and Christian Slater that would be indistinguishable from every other heist movie only wait for it . . . the whole thing takes place in a steady downpour. If I told you that they called it Hard Rain, you wouldn't believe me so let's just continue.*
My point (to the extent I have one) is that I am due. I have to be. Even a blind squirrel gets laid wearing a funny hat in the woods every once in a while right? Alright Golf Babes, take us out.
@GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
Tis’ the season #TheMasters— The Golf Chica (@thegolfchica) April 8, 2019
Team #PimientoCheese 🥪🤤😍
Who’s going to win?! pic.twitter.com/3pLnzSIawi
THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS
There are certain players who have a unique affinity for Augusta National. I know I'm telling you something you already know but I needed a way to start this section and nothing establishes my credibility as a golf expert right out of the gate like stating the obvious. It's simply the product of opining about a sport where the objective is to hit a ball into a hole with a stick. How else do you explain ever word uttered on the Golf Channel?
The key to this exercise is to find the guys at the three-way intersection of (1) past Masters success, (2) recent form and (3) gambling value. If you scroll way down, you'll find the standard FGR historical performance chart from the past five years but, for the Masters, I find the following chart which depicts aggregate scoring over the past five years to be more helpful. It's fairly straightforward with the only tweak being that, if a player missed the cut, I gave him a score around the cut line and I capped all scores for that year at the same number because who am I of all people to penalize a guy for having a rough weekend? (Right Eddie Pepperell?) But we're not worried about the guys who missed a bunch of cuts anyway. The value of this chart is how it vividly ranks guys who've played 20+ rounds over the last five years. See for yourself.
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
Total
|
|
Jordan Spieth
|
-13
|
-1
|
-2
|
-18
|
-5
|
-39
|
Justin Rose
|
-6
|
-9
|
1
|
-14
|
1
|
-27
|
Rory McIlroy
|
-9
|
-3
|
1
|
-12
|
E
|
-23
|
Rickie Fowler
|
-14
|
-1
|
10
|
-6
|
-2
|
-13
|
Paul Casey
|
-5
|
-4
|
-1
|
-9
|
7
|
-12
|
Dustin Johnson
|
-7
|
DNP
|
-1
|
-9
|
7
|
-10
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
-3
|
-1
|
E
|
-11
|
7
|
-8
|
Jon Rahm
|
-11
|
3
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
-8
|
Bubba Watson
|
-9
|
8
|
9
|
1
|
-8
|
1
|
Matt Kuchar
|
E
|
-5
|
6
|
2
|
-2
|
1
|
Cameron Smith
|
-9
|
DNP
|
11
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
2
|
Charley Hoffman
|
-6
|
2
|
7
|
-8
|
7
|
2
|
Henrik Stenson
|
-9
|
8
|
6
|
-4
|
1
|
2
|
Jason Day
|
-2
|
2
|
1
|
-1
|
2
|
2
|
Louis Oosthuizen
|
-6
|
7
|
3
|
-4
|
3
|
3
|
Sergio Garcia
|
4
|
-9
|
8
|
-5
|
7
|
5
|
Jimmy Walker
|
-2
|
1
|
7
|
1
|
E
|
7
|
Phil Mickelson
|
2
|
2
|
10
|
-14
|
7
|
7
|
Justin Thomas
|
-4
|
2
|
10
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
8
|
Brooks Koepka
|
4
|
-1
|
5
|
E
|
DNP
|
8
|
Tiger Woods
|
1
|
8
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
9
|
Patrick Reed
|
-15
|
8
|
12
|
-2
|
7
|
10
|
Francesco Molinari
|
-2
|
5
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
7
|
10
|
Adam Scott
|
1
|
-2
|
10
|
1
|
1
|
11
|
Marc Leishman
|
-8
|
8
|
7
|
1
|
7
|
15
|
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
3
|
4
|
E
|
1
|
7
|
15
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
16
|
Charl Schwartzel
|
4
|
-6
|
10
|
1
|
7
|
16
|
Branden Grace
|
-1
|
DNP
|
10
|
1
|
7
|
17
|
Kevin Kisner
|
E
|
8
|
9
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
17
|
Zach Johnson
|
2
|
8
|
10
|
-8
|
7
|
19
|
Webb Simpson
|
-2
|
8
|
7
|
-1
|
7
|
19
|
J.B. Holmes
|
4
|
11
|
-1
|
1
|
7
|
22
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
|
3
|
8
|
4
|
1
|
7
|
23
|
The bottom line is that I don't give a rat's ass how off his game Jordan Spieth has been lately. At 20 to 1 and $8,900 on DraftKings, he is a steal. Load-up the cart with him like he's half-priced Aqua Velva at Costco. The same is true of Matt Kuchar ($7,900) and Charley Hoffman ($6,800). And I would have said that before Kuch just finished runner-up at the Match Play and Hoffman did the same at the Texas Open. The fact that they're coming-in hot only makes me that much more confident (says the barefoot guy who keeps stepping-on a Lego).
After we get those three obvious picks out of the way, we have some tough choices to make. The first is at the top where we have Rory, D.J. and Rose all poised to win their first green jacket. You kind of get the feeling that each of them is going to get one so the question then becomes who gets his first? I'm ruling-out DJ this year because he's the least likely of the three to win one having never really contended. (Don't be fooled by the T4 in 2016 as he didn't finish any round better than three back). That leaves Rory or Rose and frankly it's a toss-up. Rory is hotter but Rose has had the more legitimate title runs. I'm going with Rose. I picked him last year and he finished T12 with his "B" game. I don't think he brings that two years in a row.
Down a tier we have a logjam of legitimate contenders that includes Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day, Paul Casey, Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama, Francesco Molinari, Xander Schauffele and Adam Scott. You only get to pick two of those guys (my rules) and I've tried to come-up with any conceivable reason not to make Casey one of them because I don't trust him but he sure is comfortable here and, when Casey is comfortable, he's easily one of the ten best players in the world if not one of the top five. He's not going to win but he's a virtual lock for a first page of the leaderboard finish.
 |
| Ooh tingling sensation. Shit just got real. |
And I would have the undisputed world's worst fantasy golf website if I didn't devote at least a couple paragraphs to Tiger and Phil (and even then I might still have the world's worst fantasy golf website). Tiger is overrated as usual with most having him with the fourth best odds behind the three favorites I discussed above when there is no way he should be ranked ahead of Spieth, Casey, Rickie Fowler and probably Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas (more on Fowler, Rahm and Thomas later), Day, Watson and Matsuyama. Yes he is one of the three greatest Masters players of all-time along with Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer but he hasn't had a top ten since 2013 and he hasn't exactly been tearing it up this year though his near-miss final four at the Match Play was definitely a positive sign. I give him a 50/50 shot at a top ten.
Phil on the other hand is underrated. I think I write this every year and I will continue to write it until they bury him behind the 12th tee after he inevitably double-crosses the mob. Phil has finished 7th or better at Augusta fourteen times and, during one ten year stretch from 2001-2010, he had eight top five finishes including three wins. He also shot -14 and finished T2 as recently as 2015. He's stunk the most recent five times he's teed it up in 2019 but the last time he played a course he loves as much as Augusta, he won at Pebble Beach. I have a feeling he could make a run this year but his downside is a total flameout so I can't pick him ahead of guys like Matsuyama and Kuchar. I'd really like to but I can't.
 |
| How awesome was it to see the women amateurs playing out of the pine straw at Augusta? (Pretty freakin' awesome). |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth
Sleeper Pick: Si Woo Kim
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Rory McIlroy
|
$11,600
|
Justin Rose
|
$10,800
|
Paul Casey
|
$9,000
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$8,900
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
$8,700
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$7,900
|
Ian Poulter
|
$7,600
|
Haotong Li
|
$7,200
|
Charley Hoffman
|
$6,800
|
Si Woo Kim
|
$6,700
|
Let's use this vacant space to talk about a few of the guys I've ignored. Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler are all capable of winning but this generation will have its Nick Price, Ernie Els and Greg Norman because there are only so many green jackets to go around. Especially these days when you start handing them out to the likes of Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia and Danny Willett. Brooks Koepka definitely has the game to win one but he seems even more disengaged than usual these days so let's consider him down the road.
And that brings us to Bryson DeChambeau. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he's going to end-up with multiple green jackets in his closet. If we're making historical comparisons, let's go with Bernhard Langer. However, I absolutely refuse to even consider the possibility that we are going to be subjected to Patrick Reed putting a green jack on Bryson DeChambeau the year after Sergio Garcia put a green jacket on Patrick Reed. No, no, no and a thousand times more no. If that happens I will go into a seventy-two hour state of denial where my answer to everything will simply be "fuck-off" which may present some issues on the college tour with my son the next day and my ensuing attempt to pass-through airport security. Best case scenario I just spend the day in a catatonic state like I do after a Patriots Super Bowl win but please God. Just no.
THE DAN JENKINS MEMORIAL
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
|
|
DK Price
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$11,600
|
T5
|
T7
|
T10
|
4th
|
T8
|
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,300
|
T10
|
DNP
|
T4
|
T6
|
MC
|
|
Justin Rose
|
$10,800
|
T12
|
2nd
|
T10
|
T2
|
T14
|
|
Tiger Woods
|
$10,500
|
T32
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T17
|
DNP
|
|
Justin Thomas
|
$10,200
|
T17
|
T22
|
T39
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Jon Rahm
|
$10,000
|
4th
|
T27
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$9,700
|
2nd
|
T11
|
MC
|
T12
|
T5
|
|
Brooks Koepka
|
$9,500
|
DNP
|
T11
|
T21
|
T33
|
DNP
|
|
Bryson DeChambeau
|
$9,300
|
T38
|
DNP
|
T21
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$9,200
|
T17
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Jason Day
|
$9,100
|
T20
|
T22
|
T10
|
T28
|
T20
|
|
Paul Casey
|
$9,000
|
T15
|
6th
|
T4
|
6th
|
DNP
|
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$8,900
|
3rd
|
T11
|
T2
|
1st
|
T2
|
|
Bubba Watson
|
$8,800
|
T5
|
MC
|
T37
|
T38
|
1st
|
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
$8,700
|
19th
|
T11
|
T7
|
5th
|
MC
|
|
Francesco Molinari
|
$8,600
|
T20
|
T33
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
50th
|
|
Xander Schauffle
|
$8,500
|
T50
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Adam Scott
|
$8,400
|
T32
|
T9
|
T42
|
T38
|
T14
|
|
Phil Mickelson
|
$8,300
|
T36
|
T22
|
MC
|
T2
|
MC
|
|
Tony Finau
|
$8,200
|
T10
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Loois Oosthuizen
|
$8,100
|
T12
|
T41
|
T15
|
T19
|
25th
|
|
Patrick Reed
|
$8,000
|
1st
|
MC
|
T49
|
T22
|
MC
|
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$7,900
|
T28
|
T4
|
T24
|
T46
|
T5
|
|
Marc Leishman
|
$7,800
|
9th
|
T43
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
|
Patrick Cantlay
|
$7,700
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$7,700
|
MC
|
1st
|
T35
|
T17
|
MC
|
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$7,600
|
T5
|
MC
|
T24
|
T19
|
T14
|
|
Ian Poulter
|
$7,600
|
T44
|
DNP
|
T49
|
T6
|
T20
|
|
Gary Woodland
|
$7,500
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T26
|
|
R. Cabrera-Bello
|
$7,500
|
T38
|
MC
|
T17
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Cameron Smith
|
$7,400
|
T5
|
DNP
|
T55
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Webb Simpson
|
$7,400
|
T20
|
MC
|
T29
|
T28
|
MC
|
|
Charl Schwartzel
|
$7,300
|
MC
|
3rd
|
MC
|
T38
|
MC
|
|
Eddie Pepperell
|
$7,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Mattew Fitzpatrick
|
$7,300
|
T38
|
32nd
|
T7
|
DNP
|
MC
|
|
Haotong Li
|
$7,200
|
T32
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Tyrell Hatton
|
$7,200
|
T44
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Billy Horschel
|
$7,100
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T17
|
MC
|
T37
|
|
Branden Grace
|
$7,100
|
T24
|
T27
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
|
Charles Howell, III
|
$7,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Keegan Bradley
|
$7,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T52
|
T22
|
MC
|
|
Thor Olesen
|
$7,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T44
|
|
Zach Johnson
|
$6,900
|
T36
|
MC
|
MC
|
T9
|
MC
|
|
Charley Hoffman
|
$6,800
|
T12
|
T22
|
T29
|
T9
|
DNP
|
|
J.B. Holmes
|
$6,800
|
DNP
|
50th
|
T4
|
MC
|
DNP
|
|
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
|
$6,700
|
T44
|
DNP
|
T15
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$6,700
|
T28
|
T43
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Si Woo Kim
|
$6,700
|
T24
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Emiliano Grillo
|
$6,600
|
DNP
|
51st
|
T17
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
|
Jimmy Walker
|
$6,600
|
T20
|
T18
|
T29
|
T38
|
T8
|
Footnote
* So many great nuggets about this movie that I never knew and now I'm glad I do:
- The estimated budget to make it was $70M and it made less than $20M. Apparently people didn't want to spend a rainy day watching a movie about rain. Who knew?
 |
| "But I don't wanna watch a bad movie about rain Mr. Clark. I swear." |
- It was originally titled The Flood but they changed it because they didn't want people to think it was a disaster movie (because then they might have accidentally gone to see it?).
- Minnie Driver stated that she hated working on the movie due to its intense and continuous wet conditions. Apparently when she read the script, she must have thought that all of the references to "rain" were metaphorical.
- And finally, Morgan Freeman later offered the following: "Did any of you see this movie? Don't. Just don't."
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