Despite the mildly disastrous move of making a late switch from Francesco Molinari to Bryson DeChambeau, last week was not all bad. I got two of the final four right (Molinari and Matt Kuchar) and two other guys who made it to the quarterfinals (Louis Oosthuizen and the thankfully returning to despicable form Sergio Garcia). So at least I outperformed those chalk licking rubes over at PGATour.com though that's kind of a low-bar these days. Maybe this means I'm turning the corner . . . right into the brick wall that is the sporadically unpredictable Valero Texas Open. More on that in a minute but before we deal with that shit show.
IT'S THE @GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
THIS WEEK'S HUNCHY ANALYSIS
The Valero Texas Open shares the same problem with most tournaments played on TPC courses which is that 40% of the time they produce a winner that makes even Jim Nantz ask "hello friends I have a question . . . who in the hell is this guy?" They've played at the TPC San Antonio nine times and here are your winners:
2010: Adam Scott (so far so good)
2011: Brendan Steele (ok showed potential at the time)
2012: Ben Curtis (you're losing me)
2013: Martin Laird (who knew it would be his last win . . . oh yeah, everyone)
2014: Steven Bowditch (now you're just fucking with me right?)
2015: Jimmy Walker (ok we're back)
2016: Charley Hoffman (the guy who shoots 76 on Sunday at Augusta?)
2017: Kevin Chappell (nice flat-brim dooood)
2018: Andrew Landry (and you lost me again)
The runner-ups don't help the case much either. For every Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka, you get a double-serving of Matt Every, John Huh, Will Mackenzie, Daniel Summerhays, Trey Mullinax and Sean O'Hair. Nice guys all I'm sure but you're not asking them for an autograph at the airport, primarily because you wouldn't know who they are.
I've tried to take this into account and would almost be inclined to take a flyer on a Denny McCarthy or Nick Taylor but my constantly shifting guidelines dictate that, when there is a second tier Ryder Cup player competing against a weak field, I have to pick him. If you're not into picking Tony Finau, then the safe play would be Matt Kuchar or I guess Jim Furyk but I've got a feeling it's going to be a Hao-tong Li or Sung-jae Im kind of week.
One and Done Pick: Tony Finau
Other Guy I'd Pick: Hao-Tong Li
Sleeper Pick: Brendan Steele
DraftKings Top Ten Values
If the historical performance chart went back a few more years (oh if only), you'd see that there are even more reasons to like past champions Brendan Steele, Jimmy Walker and Charley Hoffman. Unfortunately, thinking that Walker is going to return to past form has burned me too many times lately and Hoffman just seems a bit off these days and not quite worth the $8,200 price tag. Almost, but not quite.
THE TESLA FUCK YOU BIG OIL
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
IT'S THE @GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
Can you do this #trickshot? If you can, Lucy Robson wants to see your video. #golf https://t.co/4oskQ2J34R pic.twitter.com/ERV8mL4KNH— Golf Babes (@golfbabes) March 23, 2019
THIS WEEK'S HUNCHY ANALYSIS
The Valero Texas Open shares the same problem with most tournaments played on TPC courses which is that 40% of the time they produce a winner that makes even Jim Nantz ask "hello friends I have a question . . . who in the hell is this guy?" They've played at the TPC San Antonio nine times and here are your winners:
2010: Adam Scott (so far so good)
2011: Brendan Steele (ok showed potential at the time)
2012: Ben Curtis (you're losing me)
2013: Martin Laird (who knew it would be his last win . . . oh yeah, everyone)
2014: Steven Bowditch (now you're just fucking with me right?)
2015: Jimmy Walker (ok we're back)
2016: Charley Hoffman (the guy who shoots 76 on Sunday at Augusta?)
2017: Kevin Chappell (nice flat-brim dooood)
2018: Andrew Landry (and you lost me again)
The runner-ups don't help the case much either. For every Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka, you get a double-serving of Matt Every, John Huh, Will Mackenzie, Daniel Summerhays, Trey Mullinax and Sean O'Hair. Nice guys all I'm sure but you're not asking them for an autograph at the airport, primarily because you wouldn't know who they are.
I've tried to take this into account and would almost be inclined to take a flyer on a Denny McCarthy or Nick Taylor but my constantly shifting guidelines dictate that, when there is a second tier Ryder Cup player competing against a weak field, I have to pick him. If you're not into picking Tony Finau, then the safe play would be Matt Kuchar or I guess Jim Furyk but I've got a feeling it's going to be a Hao-tong Li or Sung-jae Im kind of week.
 |
| Maybe I'll take my grandkids here one day . . . "We're heading down to the waterslide. Make sure Pop Pop has a fresh Manhattan and a clean diaper." |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Hao-Tong Li
Sleeper Pick: Brendan Steele
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Tony Finau
|
$10,800
|
Jim Furyk
|
$9,600
|
Ryan Moore
|
$9,100
|
Hao-Tong Li
|
$8,600
|
Ryan Palmer
|
$8,400
|
Denny McCarthy
|
$8,100
|
Andrew Putnam
|
$7,600
|
Nick Taylor
|
$7,200
|
Brendan Steele
|
$7,200
|
Vaughn Taylor
|
$6,800
|
If the historical performance chart went back a few more years (oh if only), you'd see that there are even more reasons to like past champions Brendan Steele, Jimmy Walker and Charley Hoffman. Unfortunately, thinking that Walker is going to return to past form has burned me too many times lately and Hoffman just seems a bit off these days and not quite worth the $8,200 price tag. Almost, but not quite.
THE TESLA FUCK YOU BIG OIL
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$11,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$11,200
|
T51
|
T40
|
T42
|
T15
|
T4
|
Tony Finau
|
$10,800
|
DNP
|
T3
|
DNP
|
T68
|
DNP
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$10,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
2nd
|
DNP
|
Sung-jae Im
|
$10,100
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Billy Horschel
|
$9,800
|
T11
|
MC
|
T4
|
3rd
|
MC
|
Jim Furyk
|
$9,600
|
T26
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jason Kokrak
|
$9,400
|
T36
|
T67
|
MC
|
T11
|
T31
|
Lucas Glover
|
$9,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Byeong-Hun An
|
$9,200
|
DNP
|
T40
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Ryan Moore
|
$9,100
|
7th
|
T18
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Lucas Bjerregaard
|
$9,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Abraham Ancer
|
$8,900
|
T58
|
DNP
|
T42
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Graeme McDowell
|
$8,800
|
T51
|
T27
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jhonny Vegas
|
$8,700
|
MC
|
T34
|
MC
|
T68
|
DNP
|
Hao-Tong Li
|
$8,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Joost Luiten
|
$8,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Ryan Palmer
|
$8,400
|
MC
|
T6
|
T4
|
T6
|
T56
|
Aaron Baddeley
|
$8,300
|
T16
|
5th
|
T29
|
T20
|
T67
|
Charley Hoffman
|
$8,200
|
T64
|
T40
|
1st
|
T11
|
T11
|
Denny McCarthy
|
$8,100
|
T20
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
J.B. Holmes
|
$8,000
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T13
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Luke List
|
$8,000
|
MC
|
MC
|
T29
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Russell Henley
|
$7,900
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Si Woo Kim
|
$7,900
|
T45
|
T22
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jimmy Walker
|
$7,800
|
4th
|
T13
|
MC
|
1st
|
T16
|
Justin Harding
|
$7,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Sung Kang
|
$7,700
|
MC
|
T6
|
T42
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Andrew Putnam
|
$7,600
|
T8
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T72
|
DNP
|
Joaquin Niemann
|
$7,600
|
6th
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Joel Dahmen
|
$7,500
|
T75
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Bud Cauley
|
$7,400
|
DNP
|
T10
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
J.T. Poston
|
$7,400
|
T30
|
T27
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Trey Mullinax
|
$7,400
|
T2
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brian Harman
|
$7,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T51
|
MC
|
T16
|
Chesson Hadley
|
$7,300
|
T20
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T4
|
T56
|
Luke Donald
|
$7,300
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T13
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Andrew Landry
|
$7,200
|
1st
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brendan Steele
|
$7,200
|
T30
|
T62
|
T13
|
T8
|
MC
|
Nick Taylor
|
$7,200
|
MC
|
T22
|
T21
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Chris Kirk
|
$7,100
|
T8
|
MC
|
T13
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brian Gay
|
$7,000
|
MC
|
T6
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T56
|
Kevin Streelman
|
$7,000
|
T8
|
T53
|
T39
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Martin Laird
|
$7,000
|
T11
|
T18
|
DNP
|
T50
|
MC
|
Scott Stallings
|
$7,000
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T13
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Nick Watney
|
$6,900
|
T20
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Ernie Els
|
$6,800
|
T30
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Kevin Tway
|
$6,800
|
T36
|
T3
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Vaughn Taylor
|
$6,800
|
T16
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Richy Werenski
|
$6,500
|
T11
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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