Do you want to know a sure sign that you're really kicking ass in life? Passing cars on the outside. Cashing checks and snapping necks. Well here you go. You devote several hours a week and several years of your life to the study of fantasy golf to the point where you could probably have a Ph.D in it by now if there was some barely accredited school that offered it (e.g. University of Arizona, Auburn, L.S.U., etc.). You research it, write about it and maintain an almost encyclopedic knowledge of which players historically perform well at every stop on tour. That alone might give one pause to ponder the question, "is this really the best use of my time?"
Oh but it gets better. Then you decide to monetize this effort by wagering against people who spend two minutes thinking about fantasy golf before making a slightly educated guess as to which player will win that week. Surely you would think that, under these circumstances, the extensive research would literally pay dividends and the Ph.D would crush the recreational player over the course of a season. And surely you would be wrong as I currently sit squarely in 30th place out of 37 teams sucking-on blown picks like Patrick Reed's missed cut at Pebble Beach, Dustin Johnson's inexplicable stumble at Riviera and Hideki Matsuyama's withdrawal at TPC Scottsdale (that was the proverbial writing on the wall). Clearly I have angered the fantasy golf gods and, after yet another pedestrian effort this past weekend (I'm looking at you Fleetwood), I gotta say . . . morale is low.
But I plow forward buoyed by the hope that THIS WILL BE THE WEEK and also by the fact that I get to draft a six man season-long team tomorrow night (something that I have historically sucked at less). My current plan is to pick Ryan Moore this week. I don't like this plan. I don't want to follow this plan. However, I feel like going against my better instincts may be advisable at this point (the "Costanza Gambit"). Also, I don't want to pick the guys I have ranked ahead of him because I've either already used them (Garcia and Finau) or I have them penciled in somewhere else later (Spieth, Stenson, Rose and Casey). With all of that being said, I'm going to have couple of beers tomorrow night so this pick could change depending on how many a "couple" turns-out to be:
1-2 Beers: Ryan Moore (This pick is starting to make sense)
3-4 Beers: Paul Casey (I can't stand Ryan Moore - what else you got?)
5-6 Beers: Ryan Moore (Fuck Paul Casey - Ryan Moore is the man!)
7-8 Beers: Bryson DeChambeau (I'll take that cocky prick just to spite myself)
9-10 Beers: Ernie Els (Piss-off . . . [yelling now] HE'S IN THE FIELD!)
11-12 Beers: Tiger Woods (IT'S GONNA BE CRAZY DUDE!!!)
13+ Beers: Ryan Moore (Fuck you. Pay the check. Where's my other shoe?)
As for the rest of our picks (yours and mine), the course has tended to favor straight hitters. Past winners include the power trio of Luke Donald, Jim Furyk and Kevin Streelman so look for guys who can hit a bunch of fairways like Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy (just seeing if you were paying attention). I've actually got those two at the bottom of my top 30 just for the sake of recognizing their participation but chances are that one or both of them are going to miss the cut meaning a relaxing Friday night exploring Tampa's world renowned fine arts district . . . if you know what I mean . . . and I think you do.
Let's end on that high note. I've got research to do. As always, the following chart represents the FGR's often laughably inaccurate predicted order of finish.
LOSING MONEY FOR DUMMIES - VALSPAR EDITION
The One and Done Pick: Ryan Moore
The Sleeper Pick: Harris English
The DraftKings Top Ten Values
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
Oh but it gets better. Then you decide to monetize this effort by wagering against people who spend two minutes thinking about fantasy golf before making a slightly educated guess as to which player will win that week. Surely you would think that, under these circumstances, the extensive research would literally pay dividends and the Ph.D would crush the recreational player over the course of a season. And surely you would be wrong as I currently sit squarely in 30th place out of 37 teams sucking-on blown picks like Patrick Reed's missed cut at Pebble Beach, Dustin Johnson's inexplicable stumble at Riviera and Hideki Matsuyama's withdrawal at TPC Scottsdale (that was the proverbial writing on the wall). Clearly I have angered the fantasy golf gods and, after yet another pedestrian effort this past weekend (I'm looking at you Fleetwood), I gotta say . . . morale is low.
But I plow forward buoyed by the hope that THIS WILL BE THE WEEK and also by the fact that I get to draft a six man season-long team tomorrow night (something that I have historically sucked at less). My current plan is to pick Ryan Moore this week. I don't like this plan. I don't want to follow this plan. However, I feel like going against my better instincts may be advisable at this point (the "Costanza Gambit"). Also, I don't want to pick the guys I have ranked ahead of him because I've either already used them (Garcia and Finau) or I have them penciled in somewhere else later (Spieth, Stenson, Rose and Casey). With all of that being said, I'm going to have couple of beers tomorrow night so this pick could change depending on how many a "couple" turns-out to be:
1-2 Beers: Ryan Moore (This pick is starting to make sense)
3-4 Beers: Paul Casey (I can't stand Ryan Moore - what else you got?)
5-6 Beers: Ryan Moore (Fuck Paul Casey - Ryan Moore is the man!)
7-8 Beers: Bryson DeChambeau (I'll take that cocky prick just to spite myself)
9-10 Beers: Ernie Els (Piss-off . . . [yelling now] HE'S IN THE FIELD!)
11-12 Beers: Tiger Woods (IT'S GONNA BE CRAZY DUDE!!!)
13+ Beers: Ryan Moore (Fuck you. Pay the check. Where's my other shoe?)
 |
| "Nope. That's not the one." |
Let's end on that high note. I've got research to do. As always, the following chart represents the FGR's often laughably inaccurate predicted order of finish.
LOSING MONEY FOR DUMMIES - VALSPAR EDITION
DK Price
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
2013
|
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$11,800
|
DNP
|
T18
|
1ST
|
T20
|
T7
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$10,200
|
T7
|
T11
|
4th
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$10,900
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T7
|
Tony Finau
|
$9,400
|
5th
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Justin Rose
|
$10,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T8
|
T25
|
Paul Casey
|
$9,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Ryan Moore
|
$9,100
|
T18
|
3rd
|
5th
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Cameron Smith
|
$8,000
|
T49
|
T42
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Charl Schwartzel
|
$7,500
|
6th
|
1st
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jamie Lovemark
|
$7,300
|
T27
|
T37
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Adam Hadwin
|
$8,800
|
1st
|
MC
|
71st
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Patrick Reed
|
$7,700
|
T38
|
T7
|
T2
|
DNP
|
MC
|
B. DeChambeau
|
$7,400
|
T27
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Branden Grace
|
$8,600
|
DNP
|
T37
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Byeon Hun An
|
$8,400
|
T49
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$8,200
|
T22
|
T11
|
T33
|
T38
|
T14
|
Kevin Streelman
|
$7,500
|
T18
|
MC
|
T40
|
T38
|
1st
|
Louis Oosthuizen
|
$8,100
|
DNP
|
T7
|
DNP
|
MC
|
MC
|
Gary Woodland
|
$9,000
|
T58
|
T42
|
MC
|
T8
|
MC
|
Charley Hoffman
|
$7,300
|
MC
|
T11
|
MC
|
T25
|
T75
|
Luke List
|
$7,800
|
T27
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Kevin Na
|
$8,000
|
MC
|
T22
|
T10
|
2nd
|
DNP
|
Chez Reavie
|
$7,900
|
T27
|
T22
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T63
|
Jason Dufner
|
$7,800
|
T11
|
T22
|
T24
|
T14
|
T21
|
Harris English
|
$7,000
|
T27
|
MC
|
T10
|
T38
|
T7
|
Charles Howell, III
|
$7,400
|
T49
|
T5
|
T10
|
T14
|
DNP
|
Steve Stricker
|
$7,500
|
MC
|
T7
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$11,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Tiger Woods
|
$9,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
 |
| Yeah I think we figured it out from the writing but thanks. |
The Sleeper Pick: Harris English
The DraftKings Top Ten Values
Jordan Spieth
|
$11,800
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$10,200
|
Tony Finau
|
$9,400
|
Ryan Moore
|
$9,100
|
Cameron Smith
|
$8,000
|
Charl Schwartzel
|
$7,500
|
B. DeChambeau
|
$7,400
|
Charles Howell, III
|
$7,400
|
Jamie Lovemark
|
$7,300
|
Harris English
|
$7,000
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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