The Barclays Update

As I was watching local news coverage of Hurricane Irene preempt the tape delayed final round of the Barclays, all I could think was “do you know if the hotel is pager friendly?....I’m not getting a sig’ on my beeper.”  Local news is like a toll booth without an EZPass lane.  You were pretty sure that, by keeping up with the most basic forms of modern technology, you had removed it from your life as an inconvenience and then it up and whacks you on the hand with its cane and says “not so fast sonny.”    

"Does anyone have some
roofing nails I can nibble on?"

Look, you can have your 6:00 p.m. weekday time slot to entertain those without cable TV and the dozens of fans that the cancellation of Larry King Live left behind but, on Saturday afternoon when we are snowbound or hurricane bound, stop overriding my golf coverage and subjecting me to the girl who would never shut-up in high school giving me a current weather report that I can see through my window.  Not to mention, if I want a forecast, do you think I’m going to trust the guy guest bartending at Bennigan’s this Friday night after he cuts the ribbon at the grand opening of the new Scion dealership, or badass Jim Cantore and the pros from Dover at the Weather Channel?  I don’t take swing tips from 17 handicaps so I’m not getting my weather from a guy who resisted Doppler radar technology for years because he thought the aching in his mother’s hip was more reliable. 

                

Fortunately, the Golf Channel came through with a replay of the third round so I was able to watch what PGATour.com had billed as the “exciting finish” to the Barclays.  I’m still trying to figure out which of the ten pars Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar made over the last five holes was the “exciting” part.  Maybe it was exciting because they had to take down the scoreboards which one of the announcers pointed out wouldn’t bother those guys who don’t look at scoreboards but would drive the scoreboard watchers crazy.  Are the actual scoreboards on the course really the only way a player can find out where he stands coming down the stretch?  If Johnson came to 18 and asked an official where he stood on the leaderboard, would the guy respond, “Sorry Dustin, I can’t give you that information but I can tell you that Blue Horseshoe loves par on this hole (wink, wink)?”  (I think my attempts to skew younger by ranting against the resistance to technology are being negated by my references to movies that came out over twenty years ago).  

"That's cool Adam because, you 
know, I hired a new caddie too."

Johnson’s win propelled him to the top of the FedEx standings.  Meanwhile my pick to win it all, Adam Scott inexplicably shot a 42 on the back nine on Saturday to drop from 9^th to 67^th in the tournament and 13^th to 23^rd in the overall standings.  Is it possible that Stevie Williams fears hurricanes more than he fears not being the center of attention?  (Could I pose another question to myself?)  Or maybe it was just the opposite and he couldn’t wait to get off the course so he could go surf Irene on a 2x4 while spearfishing barracudas with a Swiss Army knife.  On a semi-related note, we need Adam Scott to play Tiger in singles at the President’s Cup and Tiger to hire Brock Lesnar to caddie for him like Matt Dillon in My Bodyguard.  (Good Lord.  That’s a 31 year old movie reference.  I wonder if there were any good quotes in The Birth of a Nation?)   

No major surprises in the FedEx Cup standings as Vijay, Justin Rose and Y.E. Yang were the big movers.  Vijay should have won the tournament but his putting was really bad which, for Vijay, is like saying Keanu Reeves’ acting was really bad, like The Replacements bad.  My longshot John Merrick stayed alive, barely, and Sergio moved up a couple of spots.  Meanwhile, Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson and Spencer Levin who have missed three cuts combined since the first week of May all missed it this week.  What else do they have in common?  They’re all (a) on my team, (b) sitting outside of the Top 30, and (c) pissing me off.

"Jamaal Charles?....but the Chiefs'
schedule was so weak last year."

A shortened tournament with minimal drama means a light post this week.  And besides, we’re in the midst of fantasy football drafting season and I don’t see one running back without major bust potential so I need to stare at the cheatsheets like John Nash until a name rises off the page.  If only my imaginary friend would get out of my office and stop bothering me to go out for Chick-fil-A. 

                                  

The Playoff Preview Part 3

"We're not going to waste
OUR time picking longshots"

This thing got a little unwieldy so for picks 11-30, check out The Playoff Preview Part 2.  I will warn you that the top 10 are all favorites even though we know from experience that some schlub like Charley Hoffman or Heath Slocum is going to make it in there but I’m not going to waste OUR time by blindly throwing darts.  For you non-golf junkies, the rest of this is going to be a little dry and boring like a plain graham cracker. 

10. Webb Simpson: He’s playing some solid golf right now but most of his high finishes come when a lot of the next nine guys are not in the field.  He’s a year away.  (Wait, let’s see how many sports clichés I can work in here).   

9. David Toms: We’re splitting hairs at this point as Toms could get hot and win this thing.  Just couldn’t bump him ahead of any of the next eight.

8. Luke Donald: He had ten Top 10’s in fourteen tournaments so you know he’s going to be in the mix.  

7. Matt Kuchar: He’s had solid playoff runs the last two years and seems to be getting on track after his only two missed cuts of the year. 

6. Charl Schwartzel: He had 9 Top 25 finishes in 13 tournaments and played his best when the field was strong so you have to like his chances.   

5. Nick Watney: He has as much game as anyone right now and he tied for 4^th at East Lake last year.

4. Steve Stricker: The Sunday meltdown at the PGA Championship will have no effect on him because he never does anything in the majors and then he owns the playoffs.  To me that just means that he’s more nervous about winning a major than he is about winning money which makes him more likeable….if that’s possible.  

3. Sergio Garcia: He’s quietly having a solid season and I could see him winning one of the playoff tournaments.  I was actually starting to come around on Sergio and then I watched the highlights of the 1999 Ryder Cup where I can't believe one of the American players didn't beat him senseless with a bunker rake. 

2. Jason Day: Missing the cut at the PGA must have really chafed him and no one is more overdue for a win.   

"Hit it over there or I swear
I will break your arm."

1. Adam Scott: It pains me to say it because it’s going to kill my fantasy season but he’s at the top of his game right now and by “he” I mean Steve Williams.  If Adam Scott can just stay out of his way, they should bring home the cup.

So there it is.  One pseudo expert's semi-scientific analysis of the FedEx Cup.  The beautiful part is that if I shoot a complete air ball, you'll never hear about it again but if I'm right, I get to remove the "pseudo" from my title and double my appearance fees.      
                   

The Playoff Preview Part 2

Here’s the problem with trying to apply logic to picking the outcome of golf tournaments or, in this case, a series of golf tournaments.  Last year, Luke Donald ended the regular season by finishing T46 at the Bridgestone and then missing the cut at the PGA so he wasn’t exactly on a roll.  He then finished T15, T2, T37 and 2^nd in the playoff tournaments and 3rd in the final standings.  Was his success due to the “horses for courses” theory?  Not really.  In 2009, he finished T31, T54, T10, T25 which is aight (I need an Urban Dictionary spell checker).  In 2008, he didn’t play in the playoffs due to injury and in 2007 he finished Cut, T60, T30 and didn’t make the Tour Championship. 

Last year’s FedEx Cup Champ, Jim Furyk, came into the playoffs in 3^rd place, missed the Barclays because he was disqualified for showing-up late to his pro am tee time (he said he overslept, I think he was paired with Donald Trump) and then went on to win the Cup thanks to his high regular season finish and his win at the Tour Championship.  Under the most recent point system, winning the Tour Championship is basically the golden ticket so if you’re going to pick the winner of the FedEx Cup, you better focus on East Lake.  Other than that, in the words of Reggie Hammond, “bulls—t and experience is all it takes” so “come on in and experience some of my bulls—t.”

My final 30 in reverse order:

30. D.A. Points: My “that guy is playing in the Tour Championship?!?” pick will cling to the last spot.

"Come on over John and let me
introduce you to some of the boys."

29. John Merrick: Since they went to the playoff format, the final Top 30 has been littered with guys like Kevin Streelman, Briny Baird and Jeff Quinney, the Tour Championship’s answer to Jugdish, Mohammet and Lonny.  I can see Mickelson re-introducing Merrick to those guys in the locker room.... “Super….then you’ll have lots to talk about.”   

28. Martin Laird: He’s missed the cut in four of his last five tournaments that had a cut which we know does not mean much, but it can’t be good. 

27. Jason Duffner: He’ll bounce back from his PGA collapse and cut at the Wyndham to make it to the finish line while looking like he ate bad clams for five street weeks.

26. Brandt Snedeker:  He four putted the 72^nd hole at the BMW in 2009 and dropped from 28^th to 33^rd to miss the Tour Championship.  These are the critical pieces of information that fill your brain when you play fantasy sports and not because I had Snedeker, but because I had John Senden who was the last man in thanks to the 4-jack.  The sad part is that I remember that as a really good day for me.

25. Andres Romero: He’ll do just enough to get in and then disappoint.  Kind of like a congressman.  (I promise that’s the most political this blog will ever get).

24. Mark Wilson: There is always one freefall guy who holds his spot in the Top 30 just by making a few cuts in the first three tournaments.  I’ll go with the guy who’s only finished higher than 17^th once since the Super Bowl.

23. Spencer Levin: My man has been a Top 25 machine all year which will be enough to move him up a few spots but nothing more.  If anyone knows of a charity auction where you can win a round with Spencer, please let me know.

22. Bo Van Pelt: Mr. Giggles wraps-up a nice season and will be picked too early as a player with great upside next year.   

21: Bill Haas: He has as ton of game but sometimes looks happy just to be in the mix which is another way of saying he needs to get a little more “jerk” in him if he’s going to be a consistent winner. 

20. Robert Karlsson: I’m out of Swedish jokes.

19. Fredrik Jacobson: I’m out of Swedish jokes and ping-pong jokes. 

18. Rickie Fowler: He’s been a little overrated all season (a little?!?) so this is probably a good spot for him as he’ll likely have a Top 5 at the Deutsche or the BMW and underperform at the other three.

"See if that tastes
magically delicious."

17. Keegan Bradley: With a name like Keegan Bradley, there has to be a hangover effect from the PGA win in both a golf and traditional sense.  (In researching Irish words for “hangover,” I came across this gem, “John Barleycorn: defined as a little leprechaun that sneaks into your room after you have a night of heavy drinking. He puts one foot on your chin and one foot on your nose and takes a wee crap in your mouth. Then cracks you in the head with his cane. This explains the bad taste in your mouth and headache when you wake up.”  Only the Irish could make having a small creature take a crap in your mouth while you sleep sound charming).

16. Zach Johnson: I’d like to rank him higher for selfish reasons but, as steady as he’s been this year, he has not shown he can put up the Top 3 finish against tough competition that he would need to make a big move.  I’m also having a hard time with those plaid collared shirts.  Can we please stop trying to improve the golf shirt?  (Hey I know, let's make one with a cup holder).   

15. Gary Woodland: I'm trying to balance what appears to be his great “I don’t give a rat’s ass” demeanor with the fact that, at this time last year he was prepping for the Knoxville News Sentinel Open on the Nationwide Tour which leads to the question, “how much does it cost to sponsor a Nationwide Tour Event?”  Let’s start clicking on those ads and see if we can make the “Fantasy Golf Report Open” at Clifton Park Country Club/Heroin Outlet a reality in 2014. 

14. K.J. Choi: Tough choices from this point forward because the Top 14 is loaded.  K.J. hasn’t done much since the AT&T National and…..that’s all I got because the rest of his season has been great and his track record on the playoff courses is solid.  It’s no fun talking about the really good players.

13. Bubba Watson: The curse of the “Golf Boys” drops him from 8^th to 13^th.

12. Dustin Johnson: He won the BMW last year and finished the season 5^th overall but he was a better player then.  I think at some point in the off season, he simultaneously thought about the U.S. Open, the PGA and eating a chimichanga and muttered “what the f—k?  I don’t even like chimichangas.” 

11. Phil Mickelson: Phil just doesn’t seem that focused these days.  I think he kind of checked-out after giving away the British Open on the back nine on Sunday.  Then again the last time he frittered away a major like that was the 2009 U.S. Open and then he won the Tour Championship so who knows?  Who ever knows with Phil?

Scroll-up for picks 1-10.

The Playoff Preview Part 1

"You won the British Open
.....WHA HAPPENED!?!?"

None of my guys played in the Wyndham and one of the last guys I wanted to win it did just that so I had a hard time watching it.  I did catch Justin Leonard bogeying 18 on Sunday to miss the Top 125 by one spot which had to feel just like sinking a 45 foot putt to win the Ryder Cup except exactly the opposite.  Leonard’s best finish of the year was a T13 at the Bob Hope Classic in January.  I blame Sean Foley.       

I also watched enough to wonder what Webb Simpson and Tommy Gainey talked about on Sunday considering their disparate backgrounds.  James Frederick “Webb” Simpson was a three time All American at Wake Forest and a member of the 2007 Walker Cup team.  According to his Wikipedia page, “he won several prestigious amateur tournaments.”  Tommy Gainey attended Central Carolina Technical College and worked on an assembly line wrapping insulation around hot water heaters.  According to his Wikipedia page, “he has won four events on the eGolf Tarheel Tour.”  I’d like to think that Simpson called Gainey “Thomas” all day (“nice putt Thomas”) and Gainey was muttering “f---ing pretty boy” under his breath.

With that exercise in manufactured drama out of the way, my interest is piqued as I have six players in the Top 38 of the FedEx Cup standings but only one (my new favorite player -  Keegan Bradley) a lock to make it to East Lake.  Last year eight players started the playoffs outside of the Top 30 and made it to the Tour Championship with Kevin Streelman and Martin Laird coming from as far back as 102^nd and 95^th.  I’m going to take the easy way out and guess that a couple less than that will make the move this year so, of our current Top 30, we’re going to have six players fade.

So let’s start with a multi-part (could be two, three or four but most likely two) preview of the playoffs with a review of those currently in the Top 30 who will not be making the trip to East Lake and the six who will be taking their spots:

(30) Tommy Gainey – Pretty strong showing from Two Gloves this year but he’s too erratic to hold onto the 30^th spot.  (In my snobby voice) While hitting a pitching wedge 180 yards is obviously evidence of great strength, it most certainly is not the key to consistent scoring.       

"Oh dear God . . . he really
does wear two gloves."

(26) Charles Howell, III – He’s been playing well lately but his record in the playoffs stinks and I just can’t envision his name in the field for the Tour Championship.  Hold on…..nope, still nothing.      

(24)  Jonathan Byrd – Got off to a fast start in Hawaii and then made a sick birdie on the 72^nd hole to get into the playoff with Lucas Glover at Quail Hollow but has not made a cut since June 12^th.  I have him on my roster and he gets one week to prove himself or it’s “Welcome to Dumpsville, Population - Jonathan Byrd.”

(23) Rory Sabbatini – Another player who secured his playoff spot months ago and has been treading water ever since.  It’s got to be tough out there when half of the crowd is rooting for a tree limb to fall on your head.

(22)  Aaron Baddeley – He’s only made about $180,000 since The Players in mid-May and his record on the playoff courses over the last three years is lousy.  That’s all I’ve got on him – seems like a good guy otherwise.        

"Trust me Rickie, this is
going to  be hilarious."

(20) Hunter Mahan – The curse of the “Golf Boys” video.  Haven’t we learned from all of the live mike banter at the Skins Games and the skills challenges that professional golfers shouldn’t force funny?  Can something that was intended to be funny turn out not to be funny and be unintentionally funny at the same time? 

Here are the six I have taking their spots:

(32)  Zach Johnson – Has been playing well since the Wells Fargo in early May and only needs to climb two spots.  He was also my first round draft pick so, if he doesn’t make a move and it costs me the season title because I picked him over guys like Nick Watney and Luke Donald, I’m going to spend all winter roiling with angst and that would be bad. 

"Why does everyone
keep calling me
Bo Van Poopy Pants?"

(39) Bo Van Pelt – I was surprised to see him this far back.  He was playing really well until missing the cut at the PGA.  I expect him to put up at least one Top 5 during the playoffs which should bump him into the Top 30 which in turn might finally make him smile.  If my name was Bo Van Pelt, I think I’d smile all the time.  “Hi, I’m Bo Van Pelt, would you like to buy something from me?” 

(45) Robert Karlsson – He may be the best eligible player not currently in the Top 30 with three Top 5’s in his last seven tournaments.  He’s got too much game not to climb fifteen spots unless the release of his answer to “Golf Boys” with Carl Pettersson, Frederik Jacobson and Jesper Parnevik called “Swedish Meatballs” derails him.     

(59) Sergio Garcia –Sergio has only played thirteen PGA Tour events this year and he’s made the cut in twelve of them with three Top 10’s.  More importantly he has a great record on some of the playoff courses.  Even more importantly than that, he’s not on a roster that’s threatening my chances to win my league so I might actually be (gulp) rooting for him.      

(62) Andres Romero – It only takes one strong finish to jump from 62^nd into the Top 30 and Romero is one of the guys with Top 5 potential every week right now.  (Considering that about 75 players have Top 5 potential every week right now, that is some razor sharp analysis).         

(104) John Merrick – I have to pick one deep sleeper.  I’m going with Merrick on a total whim and because he is statistically having a good year and for some reason it’s not translating into FedEx points.  How can you be ranked 21^st in scoring average and 104^th in FedEx Cup points?  (Answer – you rank 151^st in final round scoring average).  I’m banking on Merrick playing at least one good final round, preferably this Sunday before his season is over.     

So those are the six in and six out.  Later this week, I’ll rank the Top 30 and try to figure out who is going to win $10M and then pull a Furyk in 2012.