Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Fantasy Golf: The 3M Open Preview

If you want to see a good example of bad gambling course management, consider that I won $8 last week despite recommending the following players to the world: Brian Harman (1st), Rory McIlroy (T6), Tommy Fleetwood (T10), Viktor Hovland (T13), Adam Scott (T33) and Min Woo Lee (T41). Even my two sleepers made the cut (Thomas Pieters and Robert MacIntyre) despite sliding all the way to T71 by the end. Oh to be able to go back to that moment when I thought "Sepp Straka? . . . nahhhhh." 

The killer was not only swapping Dustin Johnson in for Cameron Young at the last minute, but then mysteriously making him the foundation for nearly every wager. What can I say? I'm a sucker for D.J. and have been since he almost ran over me in a golf cart at Congressional in 2011. At least I limited my ill-fated LIV Golf strategy to just him and Thomas Pieters as none of those clowns finished higher than Henrik Stenson at T13. 

At least I was correct in warning you off Scottie Scheffler and Rickie Fowler. Sure they both finished T23 but for the guys who went off as somewhere around the 1st and 9th favorites, that's like every book report I wrote in high school. Simply not good enough.   

As painful as it was to watch, Rory's bazillionth top ten in a major means that the current FGR streak is a very solid Win, Win, T4, T6 and T6. The lesson as always is not to fuck with golf prognosticators from a small town. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I was going to go with one about the writer/actor strikes but didn't feel like getting labeled as a socialist for supporting the people who actually create the content that generates television and movie revenue so let's tackle the less polarizing issue of teaching that slavery was really just a form of super immersive vocational training with long hours and low wages.  


Don't worry. I didn't unlearn how to embed Tweets but this one came with a video of a guy currently campaigning for most horrible human being on Earth and I don't want his ghoulish mug tarnishing my website.

GOLF ANALYSIS

We pulled together a limited chart to show the handful of guys who've regularly made the trip to Blaine, Minnesota and experienced some success. That short list would include past champion Tony Finau along with Emiliano Grillo, Sungjae Im and Adam Hadwin. Not surprisingly, we've got three of those four in our line-up. 

Lucas Glover and Doug Ghim feel like educated picks but the rest are pretty much hunches. Sahith Theegala and Denny McCarthy are probably the two best players in the world without a PGA Tour win and, since only one of them is playing this week, we're going with that guy. 

One and Done Pick: Emiliano Grillo
Don't fuck-up this run
for us Emiliano!!!

Other Guy I'd Pick: Tony Finau

Sleeper Pick: Chesson Hadley

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Tony Finau

$10,600

Emiliano Grillo

$9,700

Ludvig Aberg

$9,400

Adam Hadwin

$8,900

Sahith Theegala

$8,700

Lucas Glover

$8,200

Eric Cole

$7,800

Doug Ghim

$7,400

K.H. Lee

$7,300

Chesson Hadley

$6,900


I went on a brief Ryan Gosling binge this week with a long overdue viewing of The Nice Guys which was outstanding and then I took my daughter to see Barbie which I would say landed somewhere near the intersection of clever, thought provoking and brilliant. As for Gosling, he'll probably never top Drive. If you haven't seen it, do yourself a favor. It's either that or the Knife Guys.

                                    THE MOJO DOJO CASA HOUSE
                               HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

Based on the small sample size below, I could also recommend J.T. Poston and the records of a couple Cams standout as in Davis and Champ. No clue why Cameron Young is the DraftKings favorite but we just go where we're told.

 

DK Price

2022

2021

2020

2019

Cameron Young

$10,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tony Finau

$10,600

1st

T28

T3

T23

Sungjae Im

$10,300

T2

DNP

DNP

T15

Hideki Matsuyama

$10,000

W/D

DNP

DNP

T7

Emiliano Grillo

$9,700

T2

MC

T3

DNP

Sepp Straka

$9,500

DNP

MC

T18

MC

Ludvig Aberg

$9,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Justin Thomas

$9,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Gary Woodland

$9,200

DNP

T11

DNP

DNP

Stephen Jaeger

$9,100

MC

DNP

DNP

T66

Cam Davis

$9,000

T16

T28

T12

MC

Adam Hadwin

$8,900

T38

T6

DNP

4th

J.J. Spaun

$8,800

DNP

MC

MC

T66

Sahith Theegala

$8,700

MC

DNP

MC

DNP

Keith Mitchell

$8,600

DNP

5th

MC

T66

Patrick Rodgers

$8,500

DNP

T39

T32

DNP

J.T. Poston

$8,400

T11

T28

DNP

DNP

Lucas Glover

$8,200

MC

DNP

MC

T7

Beau Hossler

$8,000

MC

T49

MC

T34

Aaron Rai

$7,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Eric Cole

$7,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Alex Noren

$7,700

DNP

DNP

T3

DNP

Cameron Champ

$7,600

T16

1st

DNP

MC

Ryan Fox

$7,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

C. Bezuidenhout

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Kuchar

$7,500

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

Tom Hoge

$7,500

T4

MC

T46

T23

Doug Ghim

$7,400

T16

MC

T18

DNP

Chez Reavie

$7,300

T49

T11

DNP

DNP

K.H. Lee

$7,300

DNP

T6

66th

MC

Billy Horschel

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kevin Streelman

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

T34

Mackenzie Hughes

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

T66

Chesson Hadley

$6,900

10th

T58

MC

MC

Joel Dahmen

$6,800

DNP

T67

DNP

DNP


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