Fantasy Golf: The British Open Preview

If not for Tommy Fleetwood making double on his 72nd hole in true slumpy slouchy Tommy Fleetwood fashion, we would now be on a four consecutive week heater of top five finishers (and by "we" I mean us). Alas, we must settle for rolling into the final major of the year on a win, win, T4, T6 streak. If you're wondering whether it's started going to my head, I can assure that it has absolutely started going to my head. The current over/under on minutes it takes me to drop the topic of my hot streak into a conversation is 4.5 and you can adjust that down by 10 to 15 seconds per beer consumed. 

Going with a short preamble this week as befits a major preview. Also, I just endured almost three hours of live hot July night baseball with a lifeless team on the field and an overly enthusiastic yet dimwitted father-son combination sitting behind me. Imagine Dan Dierdorf as a 10 year old doing baseball commentary. Actually it's better if you don't. Trust me.  

TWEET OF THE WEEK

As Emiliano's tweet indicates, this clip of Rory doing all-time classic Rory shit should come with a warning label.

I’ve watched this 45 times , and I plan to do it until my phone runs out of battery. https://t.co/q4MSTTfSLj

— Emiliano Grillo (@GrilloEmiliano) July 16, 2023

GOLF ANALYSIS

In 1967 they played the British Open at Royal Liverpool and Robert De Vicenzo beat Jack Nicklaus by two shots with Gary Player and Tony Jacklin finishing in the top five. Then, despite, that marquee leaderboard, they waited until 2006 to play it there again with similar results as Tiger Woods won it and the top five was rounded-out by Chris DiMarco, Ernie Els, Jim Furyk and Sergio Garcia.

Then they returned in 2014 and all that produced was a Rory McIlroy win and a top five that included Sergio, Furyk, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott and Marc Leishman. Now the "rota" has brought us back as it should at least every eight years from now until eternity.

Royal Liverpool's habit of producing hall of fame caliber leaderboards should bode well for guys who historically thrive under U.K. conditions like Rory, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth and Tommy Fleetwood along with a host of others (see colorful chart below). As we know, however, you can't pick them all and that's why you come see the experts 😜. (Oh dear god he's humping his own leg and using emojis again).  

Let's start with a look at who is overrated and it begins at the top. I know Scottie Scheffler is currently a statistical marvel and has finished top-10 in nine of his last thirteen majors including all three this year but $12,500? Come on. That's like Tiger in his prime at Firestone or Bay Hill money. It's not like Scheffler's playing against Smails and Beeper for chrissakes. This might be one of the all-time great major fields playing at the height of its powers. Put another way, if you're telling me I can have Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson for the same price as Scottie Scheffler and Harris English . . . um. 

Also, I love the Rickie Fowler comeback story as much or more than the next guy but favoring him over the likes of Spieth, Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry at a British Open is funneling the Kool-Aid. I would've slotted him right around Cameron Young territory. Oh and if he proves me wrong and hoists the jug on Sunday, I'll be smiling like I just watched one of my kids talk his way out of a speeding ticket.

So who's underrated you ask? Well pretty much all of the LIV guys except Brooks and Cam. The Saudis had three of the top five at Augusta, three of the top ten at the PGA Championship (including the winner) and two of the top ten at the U.S. Open. My first draft only had Thomas Pieters on the list of recommendations but you know there will be more than one so we bumped Cameron Young for D.J. who has six British Open top tens on his resume plus a T12 in 2014. He's also the only one I can stomach rooting for so that definitely influenced, if not made, the decision.  

The pick this week is Rory who I've had penciled into this spot since January and I only began to waver when he won the Scottish Open because I generally interpret all signs as bad. (If you ever hear me say, "that's a good sign" and don't detect the sarcasm, then you missed it). It doesn't really matter anyway. Now I have to pick him because if I don't and he wins . . . 🤯.

Viktor Hovland is this week's #2 and I swear I mean this as a compliment in the limited context of the British Open but he's kind of our modern day Sergio who has ten British Open top-10's including two runner-ups. Viktor has a similar smash it around the links with elite ball-striking style of play that's already yielded a T4 and a T12 in his only two starts. If I was going anywhere else with this pick, he'd be the guy.

Fleetwood won't win but he's a virtual lock for the top ten and Tony Finau looks like a pretty good value for a guy who's never finished worse than T28. Min Woo Lee is a bit of a wildcard but we're going to balance him out with the somewhat chalky trio of Brian Harman, Thomas Pieters and Robert MacIntyre who is frankly a mystery at $6,800 after his performance last week and his stellar British Open record but we'll take it.  

One and Done Pick: Rory McIlroy

The newfound swagger of the
FGR picks has been refreshing.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Viktor Hovland

Sleeper Pick: Robert MacIntyre 

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy	$11,900
Viktor Hovland	$10,000
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,300
Dustin Johnson	$9,200
Tony Finau	$8,200
Adam Scott	$7,900
Min Woo Lee	$7,700
Brian Harman	$7,300
Thomas Pieters	$7,100
Robert MacIntyre	$6,800

I don't know if I've ever had to overcome more pre-hype for a television show than I did for episodes 6 and 7 from season 2 of The Bear and they STILL managed to exceed my expectations. For now I'm going to hold-off on any potential spoilers out of respect for those who still haven't arrived at the party but hurry-up and get there people. It's worth it. 

                                  THE THIRD FORK WAS THE CHARM

                                 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

This is where I have to explain the Spieth omission. I can overlook almost anything when it comes to picking him at the British Open but four missed cuts in his last six starts is just a bridge too far. He'll probably burn me for it but the other options in his price range were just more compelling. Oh fuck it. I just hedged with a top five wager on him because I can't completely quit the guy. Someone please talk me off this ledge. 

	DK Price	2022	2021	2019	2018	2017
Scottie Scheffler	$12,500	T28	T8	DNP	DNP	DNP
Rory McIlroy	$11,900	3rd	T46	MC	T2	T4
Jon Rahm	$11,200	T34	T3	T11	MC	T44
Cameron Smith	$10,700	1st	T33	T20	78th	MC
Brooks Koepka	$10,400	MC	T6	T4	T39	T6
Xander Schauffele	$10,100	T15	T26	T41	T2	T20
Viktor Hovland	$10,000	T4	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,900	T8	MC	T41	T12	DNP
Rickie Fowler	$9,800	DNP	T53	T6	T28	T54
Jordan Spieth	$9,700	T8	2nd	T20	T9	1st
Collin Morikawa	$9,600	MC	1st	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$9,500	T21	T26	T20	MC	T44
Tyrrell Hatton	$9,400	T11	MC	T6	T51	MC
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,300	T4	T33	2nd	T12	T27
Dustin Johnson	$9,200	T6	T8	T51	MC	T54
Shane Lowry	$9,100	T21	T12	1st	MC	MC
Cameron Young	$9,000	2nd	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,900	T68	DNP	MC	MC	T14
B. DeChambeau	$8,800	T8	T33	MC	T51	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$8,700	T76	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Thomas	$8,600	T53	T40	T11	MC	MC
Sam Burns	$8,500	T42	T76	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Homa	$8,400	MC	T40	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sungjae Im	$8,300	T81	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Tony Finau	$8,200	T28	T19	3rd	T9	T27
Tom Kim	$8,100	T47	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Rose	$8,000	DNP	T46	T20	T2	T54
Adam Scott	$7,900	T15	T46	MC	T17	T22
Talor Gooch	$7,800	T34	T33	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$7,800	DNP	MC	MC	T17	T27
Corey Conners	$7,700	T28	T15	MC	DNP	DNP
Min Woo Lee	$7,700	T21	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Reed	$7,600	T47	MC	10th	T28	MC
Keegan Bradley	$7,600	MC	MC	MC	79th	DNP
Joaquin Niemann	$7,500	T53	T59	MC	DNP	DNP
Sahith Theegala	$7,500	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Russell Henley	$7,400	T62	MC	DNP	MC	T37
Ryan Fox	$7,400	MC	T67	T16	T39	MC
Harris English	$7,400	MC	T46	DNP	DNP	DNP
Abraham Ancer	$7,300	T11	T59	MC	MC	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$7,300	T15	DNP	MC	T67	MC
Brian Harman	$7,300	T6	T19	MC	MC	MC
Denny McCarthy	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Seamus Power	$7,200	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adrian Meronk	$7,200	T42	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Schenk	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Thomas Pieters	$7,100	T28	DNP	T67	T28	T44
Gary Woodland	$7,100	MC	MC	MC	T67	T70
Alex Noren	$7,100	DNP	MC	T11	T17	T6
Nicolai Hojgaard	$7,100	T53	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Nick Taylor	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lucas Herbert	$7,000	T15	MC	DNP	T51	DNP
Chris Kirk	$7,000	T42	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sepp Straka	$7,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Riley	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Byeong Hun An	$7,000	DNP	T26	T32	T51	MC
Louis Oosthuizen	$6,900	MC	T3	T20	T28	MC
Phil Mickelson	$6,900	MC	MC	MC	T24	MC
Rasmuss Hojgaard	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Robert MacIntyre	$6,800	T34	T8	T6	DNP	DNP
Billy Horschel	$6,800	T21	T53	MC	DNP	MC
Jordan Smith	$6,800	T47	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Branden Grace	$6,800	DNP	MC	T51	MC	T6
C. Bezuidenhout	$6,700	T68	T53	MC	DNP	DNP
Danny Willett	$6,700	T53	T33	T6	T24	76th
Brendon Todd	$6,700	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Victor Perez	$6,600	T34	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$6,600	MC	T12	MC	MC	MC
Thor Olesen	$6,600	DNP	DNP	T57	T12	T62
Padraig Harrington	$6,600	MC	72nd	MC	MC	MC
J.T. Poston	$6,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$6,400	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Thomas Detry	$6,400	T34	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Francesco Molinari	$6,300	T15	MC	T11	1st	MC
K.H. Lee	$6,300	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Henrik Stenson	$6,200	MC	MC	T20	T35	T11
Zach Johnson	$6,000	MC	DNP	MC	T17	T14
Matthew Wallace	$6,000	DNP	T40	T51	MC	DNP
Darren Clarke	$5,600	MC	MC	MC	MC	MC
John Daly	$5,500	MC	DNP	DNP	MC	MC

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