Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Fantasy Golf: The Players Championship Preview

I just survived the first two days of what portends to be a brutal week culminating with a  Saturday payoff of a leisurely drive to New Jersey so my daughter can play soccer there against some kids who probably played soccer against kids in Virginia last week. It's a little known fact that riding in a car for six hours is a great way to improve your first touch and shooting accuracy with the non-dominant foot. Meanwhile, the silly South Americans just keep playing 4v4 in the streets for hours on end. Let's just hope for the sake of American soccer that they never figure it out.  

Before we move on to this week's preview, let's take a moment to appreciate that the FGR finally got it right last week with Rory McIlroy (T2), Tyrrell Hatton (T4), Viktor Hovland (T10), Matt Fitzpatrick (T14), Max Homa (T14), Keith Mitchell (T24) and Rickie Fowler (T31). Even super sleeper Zach Johnson was looking good until he played his last eleven holes in a very 16 handicapish +9. And I'll tell you that you haven't lived until you've watched Tyrrell Hatton misread five putts on the back nine with a vested interest in him. Let's just say that the British histrionics cease to be charming when he's pissing away your cash. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

YOU'RE DAMN RIGHT I'M ADDICTED TO MY STRESS HORMONES. . . WHAT? . . . YOU GOT A FUCKING PROBLEM WITH THAT?!? YOU WANNA GO?!?!?


GOLF ANALYSIS

I've been known to mock The Players (no really) based on what used to be its penchant for producing winners who ranged from Australian unknowns to Canadian unknowns and the fact that, until 2013, Tiger Woods had only won it once ("If Tiger has only won your tournament once, the golf course sucks" - FGR every year from 2008 through 2012). There was in fact a fifteen year stretch ending in 2017 during which eight of The Players champions were non major winners and three more (Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia) who hadn't won one at them time. And let's be honest, Sergio turned-out to be the guy we always thought he was so his win is a net negative. 

Over the past ten years, however, the situation has improved dramatically with the likes of Tiger, Rory, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Martin Kaymer and Cameron Smith hoisting the trophy. Even the less accomplished winners like Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar had some pizazz. So we'll stop beating that drum for now. But if someone like Nick Taylor, Patrick Rodgers or Joel Dahmen wins this week . . . OK let's make some picks!

Time to ride this one week wave. The first step in any analysis of The Players is to check the weather to see if the tournament may get Funkafied as it was in 2005 when the conditions turned to shit leading to a 48 year old Fred Funk grinding-out the last 32 holes on Monday for the win. Ironically, I played TPC Sawgrass in similar conditions and it was brutal but I did hit the green on 17 (mandatory annual announcement). Fortunately the weather this week looks mild so we shouldn't have to watch Alex Noren, Corey Conners and Seamus Power grind to see who can grab the Sunday afternoon lead at -2.

Of the favorites, Rory is such the obvious pick that it would probably be wise to stay away. Especially on this golf course which chews-up and spits-out top ranked players like bad beef jerky (ew). Last year Jon Rahm, Rory, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas finished a smooth T55, T33, MC and T33 respectively and nothing says "great golf course" like the four best players chilling in the locker room before the Sunday coverage starts (I know . . . I'll stop). Anyway, there are no sure things here so let's look for some value on the lower shelves.  

Max Homa is a really intriguing pick. He's up to 7th in the world and nothing seems to phase him. He doesn't have much of a track record here with a T13 last year and a missed cut in 2021 but that's better than say Xander Schauffele who finished runner-up in 2018 but hasn't made a cut since. I may yet pull the trigger on Max as my one and done but I'm so looking forward to being right about him winning the U.S. Open that I doubt I can do it.

Will Zalatoris would be my pick if I hadn't wasted him at Torrey Pines. He's gone T26 and 21st the last two years and he's got that perfect TPC Sawgrass combination of elite ball striker/sketchy putter that worked for Sergio, Scott and Stenson. There's a reason some guys only win one major and it's nice that we have an overhyped event to make them feel better about that (really, I'm done). 

But with Zalatoris unavailable, I'm going with Matt Fitzpatrick. It's really kind of gut thing and, in a way it's based on Tommy Fleetwood who I thought was going to win this thing a few years ago until he started showing that he can't close a PGA Tour event. Say what you will about The Players but it takes some onions to win it and Fitzy showed he's got those at Brookline last year. He also has that feel of a one major plus a Players guy. My only reservation is that maybe I should be applying this logic to Shane Lowry but I'm sticking with my gut. For now. 

The next four picks are where the value really lies as Day, Bradley, Conners and Hadwin have all proven that Sawgrass doesn't annoy them and they all arrive playing good golf except for Hadwin but he's generally kind of flighty anyway. Day is obviously risky because he hasn't withdrawn from an event since the Wyndham but he's worth a shot at that price. Note that I'm already regretting his inclusion which is probably a bad sign. 

And finally there is Webb Simpson who apparently entered the witness protection program after missing the cut at last year's John Deere Classic before reemerging last week with a closing round 66 to finish T24. I'll gladly take the 2018 champion coming-off that kind of performance for $6,800. Even if he has missed almost as many cuts as he's made since this time last year (gulp).

One and Done Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick
Yet another exuberant selectee.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Max Homa

Sleeper Pick: Webb Simpson

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy

$11,000

Max Homa

$9,900

Will Zalatoris

$8,800

Matt Fitzpatrick

$8,600

Shane Lowry

$8,200

Jason Day

$8,000

Keegan Bradley

$7,500

Corey Conners

$7,400

Adam Hadwin

$7,100

Webb Simpson

$6,800


This week's chart honors a golf broadcaster who, by my own opinion and everyone I talked to at a bar last week, is on the verge of entering the pantheon of the all-time worst. And not just among golf announcers. Oh no. We're talking the big pantheon alongside the likes of Dan Dierdorf and Tim McCarver. You gotta state a lot of obvious to be mentioned in that kind of company. 

                                       THE MERE SOUND OF PAUL AZINGER 
                                        TALKING MAKES ME HATE PUPPIES
                                        HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

A last minute review has me feeling like I will rue my omission of Si Woo Kim this week. And Kevin Kisner. And maybe Brian Harman. 

 

DK Price

2022

2021

2019

2018

2017

Jon Rahm

$11,800

T55

T9

T12

T63

T72

Rory McIlroy

$11,000

T33

MC

1st

MC

T35

Scottie Scheffler

$10,600

T55

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Xander Schauffele

$10,000

MC

MC

MC

T2

DNP

Max Homa

$9,900

T13

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Patrick Cantlay

$9,700

MC

MC

MC

T23

T22

Colin Morikawa

$9,500

MC

T41

DNP

DNP

DNP

Justin Thomas

$9,400

T33

1st

T35

T11

T75

Tony Finau

$9,200

MC

MC

T22

T57

MC

Sungjae Im

$9,000

T55

T17

MC

DNP

DNP

Viktor Hovland

$8,900

T9

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Will Zalatoris

$8,800

T26

21st

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jordan Spieth

$8,700

MC

T48

MC

T41

MC

Matt Fitzpatrick

$8,600

MC

T9

T41

T46

MC

Cameron Young

$8,500

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,400

DNP

MC

T8

MC

T22

Tyrell Hatton

$8,300

T13

MC

MC

MC

T41

Shane Lowry

$8,200

T13

8th

MC

T46

MC

Tom Kim

$8,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jason Day

$8,000

MC

T35

T8

T5

T60

Chris Kirk

$7,900

MC

T48

T56

T46

T12

Tommy Fleetwood

$7,900

T22

MC

T5

T7

T41

Sam Burns

$7,800

T26

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Scott

$7,700

MC

T48

T12

T11

T6

Justin Rose

$7,700

MC

DNP

T8

T23

T65

Billy Horschel

$7,600

W/D

T58

T26

T37

MC

Sahith Theegala

$7,600

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Si Woo Kim

$7,600

W/D

T9

T56

T63

1st

Keegan Bradley

$7,500

5th

T29

T16

T7

T60

Rickie Fowler

$7,500

DNP

MC

T47

MC

T60

Brian Harman

$7,400

T63

T3

T8

MC

T53

Corey Conners

$7,400

T26

7th

T41

DNP

DNP

Keith Mitchell

$7,400

T13

MC

T47

T77

DNP

Seamus Power

$7,400

T33

DNP

T35

DNP

DNP

Tom Hoge

$7,400

T33

T22

T30

MDF

DNP

Alex Noren

$7,300

T26

MC

MC

T17

10th

Denny McCarthy

$7,300

T60

T55

T41

DNP

DNP

Min Woo Lee

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Russell Henley

$7,300

T13

MC

MC

MC

T35

Taylor Montgomery

$7,300

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Aaron Wise

$7,200

T50

T65

MC

DNP

DNP

Andrew Putnam

$7,200

MC

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

K.H. Lee

$7,200

T55

T41

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Kuchar

$7,200

MC

MC

T26

T17

82nd

Sepp Straka

$7,200

T9

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Taylor Pendrith

$7,200

T13

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Adam Hadwin

$7,100

T9

T29

MC

T57

T30

Ben Griffin

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Lucas Herbert

$7,100

T68

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Ty Detry

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Wyndham Clark

$7,100

MC

MC

DQ

DNP

DNP

C. Bezuidenhout

$7,000

DNP

T41

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cam Davis

$7,000

MC

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Gary Woodland

$7,000

MC

MC

T30

MC

T75

Harris English

$7,000

DNP

DNP

MC

MC

MC

J.J. Spaun

$7,000

MC

DNP

W/D

MC

DNP

J.T. Poston

$7,000

MC

T22

T22

DNP

DNP

Nick Taylor

$7,000

DNP

T48

T16

T79

DNP

Brendon Todd

$6,900

MC

T35

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hayden Buckley

$6,900

T66

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Kurt Kitayama

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Matt Wallace

$6,900

MC

DNP

T30

DNP

DNP

Nick Hardy

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Taylor Moore

$6,900

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Will Gordon

$6,900

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Emiliano Grillo

$6,800

MC

MC

T26

T37

11th

Jhonattan Vegas

$6,800

MC

T61

T3

T41

MC

Joel Dahmen

$6,800

T33

MC

T12

DNP

DNP

Kevin Kisner

$6,800

4th

MC

T22

MC

T56

Patrick Rodgers

$6,800

MC

T65

77th

MC

MC

Webb Simpson

$6,800

MC

MC

T16

1st

T16

Lee Hodges

$6,800

70th

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Byeong Hun An

$6,700

DNP

MC

T26

T30

DNP

Ryan Palmer

$6,700

MC

T17

MC

T23

MC

Scott Stallings

$6,700

T42

MC

MC

MC

DNP

Aaron Rai

$6,600

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Beau Hossler

$6,600

MC

DNP

MC

T46

DNP

Robby Shelton

$6,600

DNP

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Davis Riley

$6,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Luke List

$6,500

W/D

MC

T56

MC

MC

Russell Knox

$6,500

T6

T67

T35

MC

MC

Mackenzie Hughes

$6,500

MC

MC

DNP

T57

T16

Stephen Jaeger

$6,500

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Francesco Molinari

$6,400

T42

MC

T56

MC

T6

Kevin Streelman

$6,300

T22

MC

MC

MC

T72

Patton Kizzire

$6,300

T22

T35

MDF

MC

MC

Adam Long

$6,300

T46

T22

T79

DNP

DNP

Doug Ghim

$6,100

T6

T29

DNP

DNP

DNP

Chesson Hadley

$6,100

T63

DNP

MC

T11

DNP


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2 comments:

3 putt bogey said...

This golf backyard will leave you speechless and depressed at the same time. Thought you would enjoy. https://www.facebook.com/groups/202032373462284/permalink/2061222057543297/

lee ho fook said...

Cameron Young. Lock it in. (I reserve the right to change my pick on Saturday afternoon. )