Fantasy Golf: The Players Championship Preview

I just survived the first two days of what portends to be a brutal week culminating with a  Saturday payoff of a leisurely drive to New Jersey so my daughter can play soccer there against some kids who probably played soccer against kids in Virginia last week. It's a little known fact that riding in a car for six hours is a great way to improve your first touch and shooting accuracy with the non-dominant foot. Meanwhile, the silly South Americans just keep playing 4v4 in the streets for hours on end. Let's just hope for the sake of American soccer that they never figure it out.  

Before we move on to this week's preview, let's take a moment to appreciate that the FGR finally got it right last week with Rory McIlroy (T2), Tyrrell Hatton (T4), Viktor Hovland (T10), Matt Fitzpatrick (T14), Max Homa (T14), Keith Mitchell (T24) and Rickie Fowler (T31). Even super sleeper Zach Johnson was looking good until he played his last eleven holes in a very 16 handicapish +9. And I'll tell you that you haven't lived until you've watched Tyrrell Hatton misread five putts on the back nine with a vested interest in him. Let's just say that the British histrionics cease to be charming when he's pissing away your cash. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK

YOU'RE DAMN RIGHT I'M ADDICTED TO MY STRESS HORMONES. . . WHAT? . . . YOU GOT A FUCKING PROBLEM WITH THAT?!? YOU WANNA GO?!?!?

Are you Addicted To Your Own Body's Stress Hormones?

Signs You're Running on Cortisol:

— Dr. Nicole LePera (@Theholisticpsyc) February 28, 2023

GOLF ANALYSIS

I've been known to mock The Players (no really) based on what used to be its penchant for producing winners who ranged from Australian unknowns to Canadian unknowns and the fact that, until 2013, Tiger Woods had only won it once ("If Tiger has only won your tournament once, the golf course sucks" - FGR every year from 2008 through 2012). There was in fact a fifteen year stretch ending in 2017 during which eight of The Players champions were non major winners and three more (Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia) who hadn't won one at them time. And let's be honest, Sergio turned-out to be the guy we always thought he was so his win is a net negative. 

Over the past ten years, however, the situation has improved dramatically with the likes of Tiger, Rory, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Martin Kaymer and Cameron Smith hoisting the trophy. Even the less accomplished winners like Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar had some pizazz. So we'll stop beating that drum for now. But if someone like Nick Taylor, Patrick Rodgers or Joel Dahmen wins this week . . . OK let's make some picks!

Time to ride this one week wave. The first step in any analysis of The Players is to check the weather to see if the tournament may get Funkafied as it was in 2005 when the conditions turned to shit leading to a 48 year old Fred Funk grinding-out the last 32 holes on Monday for the win. Ironically, I played TPC Sawgrass in similar conditions and it was brutal but I did hit the green on 17 (mandatory annual announcement). Fortunately the weather this week looks mild so we shouldn't have to watch Alex Noren, Corey Conners and Seamus Power grind to see who can grab the Sunday afternoon lead at -2.

Of the favorites, Rory is such the obvious pick that it would probably be wise to stay away. Especially on this golf course which chews-up and spits-out top ranked players like bad beef jerky (ew). Last year Jon Rahm, Rory, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas finished a smooth T55, T33, MC and T33 respectively and nothing says "great golf course" like the four best players chilling in the locker room before the Sunday coverage starts (I know . . . I'll stop). Anyway, there are no sure things here so let's look for some value on the lower shelves.  

Max Homa is a really intriguing pick. He's up to 7th in the world and nothing seems to phase him. He doesn't have much of a track record here with a T13 last year and a missed cut in 2021 but that's better than say Xander Schauffele who finished runner-up in 2018 but hasn't made a cut since. I may yet pull the trigger on Max as my one and done but I'm so looking forward to being right about him winning the U.S. Open that I doubt I can do it.

Will Zalatoris would be my pick if I hadn't wasted him at Torrey Pines. He's gone T26 and 21st the last two years and he's got that perfect TPC Sawgrass combination of elite ball striker/sketchy putter that worked for Sergio, Scott and Stenson. There's a reason some guys only win one major and it's nice that we have an overhyped event to make them feel better about that (really, I'm done). 

But with Zalatoris unavailable, I'm going with Matt Fitzpatrick. It's really kind of gut thing and, in a way it's based on Tommy Fleetwood who I thought was going to win this thing a few years ago until he started showing that he can't close a PGA Tour event. Say what you will about The Players but it takes some onions to win it and Fitzy showed he's got those at Brookline last year. He also has that feel of a one major plus a Players guy. My only reservation is that maybe I should be applying this logic to Shane Lowry but I'm sticking with my gut. For now. 

The next four picks are where the value really lies as Day, Bradley, Conners and Hadwin have all proven that Sawgrass doesn't annoy them and they all arrive playing good golf except for Hadwin but he's generally kind of flighty anyway. Day is obviously risky because he hasn't withdrawn from an event since the Wyndham but he's worth a shot at that price. Note that I'm already regretting his inclusion which is probably a bad sign. 

And finally there is Webb Simpson who apparently entered the witness protection program after missing the cut at last year's John Deere Classic before reemerging last week with a closing round 66 to finish T24. I'll gladly take the 2018 champion coming-off that kind of performance for $6,800. Even if he has missed almost as many cuts as he's made since this time last year (gulp).

One and Done Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick

Yet another exuberant selectee.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Max Homa

Sleeper Pick: Webb Simpson

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Rory McIlroy	$11,000
Max Homa	$9,900
Will Zalatoris	$8,800
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,600
Shane Lowry	$8,200
Jason Day	$8,000
Keegan Bradley	$7,500
Corey Conners	$7,400
Adam Hadwin	$7,100
Webb Simpson	$6,800

This week's chart honors a golf broadcaster who, by my own opinion and everyone I talked to at a bar last week, is on the verge of entering the pantheon of the all-time worst. And not just among golf announcers. Oh no. We're talking the big pantheon alongside the likes of Dan Dierdorf and Tim McCarver. You gotta state a lot of obvious to be mentioned in that kind of company. 

                                       THE MERE SOUND OF PAUL AZINGER 

                                        TALKING MAKES ME HATE PUPPIES

                                        HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

A last minute review has me feeling like I will rue my omission of Si Woo Kim this week. And Kevin Kisner. And maybe Brian Harman. 

	DK Price	2022	2021	2019	2018	2017
Jon Rahm	$11,800	T55	T9	T12	T63	T72
Rory McIlroy	$11,000	T33	MC	1st	MC	T35
Scottie Scheffler	$10,600	T55	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Xander Schauffele	$10,000	MC	MC	MC	T2	DNP
Max Homa	$9,900	T13	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,700	MC	MC	MC	T23	T22
Colin Morikawa	$9,500	MC	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Justin Thomas	$9,400	T33	1st	T35	T11	T75
Tony Finau	$9,200	MC	MC	T22	T57	MC
Sungjae Im	$9,000	T55	T17	MC	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$8,900	T9	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Will Zalatoris	$8,800	T26	21st	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$8,700	MC	T48	MC	T41	MC
Matt Fitzpatrick	$8,600	MC	T9	T41	T46	MC
Cameron Young	$8,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,400	DNP	MC	T8	MC	T22
Tyrell Hatton	$8,300	T13	MC	MC	MC	T41
Shane Lowry	$8,200	T13	8th	MC	T46	MC
Tom Kim	$8,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$8,000	MC	T35	T8	T5	T60
Chris Kirk	$7,900	MC	T48	T56	T46	T12
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,900	T22	MC	T5	T7	T41
Sam Burns	$7,800	T26	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$7,700	MC	T48	T12	T11	T6
Justin Rose	$7,700	MC	DNP	T8	T23	T65
Billy Horschel	$7,600	W/D	T58	T26	T37	MC
Sahith Theegala	$7,600	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$7,600	W/D	T9	T56	T63	1st
Keegan Bradley	$7,500	5th	T29	T16	T7	T60
Rickie Fowler	$7,500	DNP	MC	T47	MC	T60
Brian Harman	$7,400	T63	T3	T8	MC	T53
Corey Conners	$7,400	T26	7th	T41	DNP	DNP
Keith Mitchell	$7,400	T13	MC	T47	T77	DNP
Seamus Power	$7,400	T33	DNP	T35	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$7,400	T33	T22	T30	MDF	DNP
Alex Noren	$7,300	T26	MC	MC	T17	10th
Denny McCarthy	$7,300	T60	T55	T41	DNP	DNP
Min Woo Lee	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Russell Henley	$7,300	T13	MC	MC	MC	T35
Taylor Montgomery	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Aaron Wise	$7,200	T50	T65	MC	DNP	DNP
Andrew Putnam	$7,200	MC	MC	MC	DNP	DNP
K.H. Lee	$7,200	T55	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Kuchar	$7,200	MC	MC	T26	T17	82nd
Sepp Straka	$7,200	T9	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Taylor Pendrith	$7,200	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Hadwin	$7,100	T9	T29	MC	T57	T30
Ben Griffin	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lucas Herbert	$7,100	T68	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ty Detry	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Wyndham Clark	$7,100	MC	MC	DQ	DNP	DNP
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,000	DNP	T41	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cam Davis	$7,000	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$7,000	MC	MC	T30	MC	T75
Harris English	$7,000	DNP	DNP	MC	MC	MC
J.J. Spaun	$7,000	MC	DNP	W/D	MC	DNP
J.T. Poston	$7,000	MC	T22	T22	DNP	DNP
Nick Taylor	$7,000	DNP	T48	T16	T79	DNP
Brendon Todd	$6,900	MC	T35	DNP	DNP	DNP
Hayden Buckley	$6,900	T66	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Kurt Kitayama	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matt Wallace	$6,900	MC	DNP	T30	DNP	DNP
Nick Hardy	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Taylor Moore	$6,900	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Will Gordon	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$6,800	MC	MC	T26	T37	11th
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,800	MC	T61	T3	T41	MC
Joel Dahmen	$6,800	T33	MC	T12	DNP	DNP
Kevin Kisner	$6,800	4th	MC	T22	MC	T56
Patrick Rodgers	$6,800	MC	T65	77th	MC	MC
Webb Simpson	$6,800	MC	MC	T16	1st	T16
Lee Hodges	$6,800	70th	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Byeong Hun An	$6,700	DNP	MC	T26	T30	DNP
Ryan Palmer	$6,700	MC	T17	MC	T23	MC
Scott Stallings	$6,700	T42	MC	MC	MC	DNP
Aaron Rai	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Beau Hossler	$6,600	MC	DNP	MC	T46	DNP
Robby Shelton	$6,600	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Davis Riley	$6,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Luke List	$6,500	W/D	MC	T56	MC	MC
Russell Knox	$6,500	T6	T67	T35	MC	MC
Mackenzie Hughes	$6,500	MC	MC	DNP	T57	T16
Stephen Jaeger	$6,500	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Francesco Molinari	$6,400	T42	MC	T56	MC	T6
Kevin Streelman	$6,300	T22	MC	MC	MC	T72
Patton Kizzire	$6,300	T22	T35	MDF	MC	MC
Adam Long	$6,300	T46	T22	T79	DNP	DNP
Doug Ghim	$6,100	T6	T29	DNP	DNP	DNP
Chesson Hadley	$6,100	T63	DNP	MC	T11	DNP

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