Fantasy Golf: The Masters Preview

Here's how Masters week normally plays out for me from a writing standpoint:

Saturday: "I should really get a jump on writing the Masters preview this year. I've got nothing going on today and . . . oh hey look Moneyball is on . . ."

Sunday: "Ok today is the day. Focus. You got this. Just need something to get me roiling. Maybe I'll go hit a few balls at the range to light the golf fire." [18 holes later] "Dad's tired. Let's order a pizza?" 

Monday: "This job sucks. When am I supposed to get any writing done with all of these people . . . and their problems . . . that I get paid to fix?!?" 

Tuesday: "JFC the Masters outing shotgun is at noon. I just need to get some momentum on this thing and then I'll finish it when I get home from the dinner tonight." [14 hours later] "Eh, there's always tomorrow and hey look Moneyball is on."

Wednesday: "Why do I even still write this stupid fucking blog that no one reads?!? Goddammit. I can't think. Not enough time. Too much pressure. My head hurts. Somebody hold me." 

Well not this week my friends because today is Saturday and I've already written what you just read along with a good chunk of the super geeky golf stuff below so I am way ahead of the game. My only obstacle now is complacency. And apathy. God help me if they join forces.

[Editor's note: Ron continued to hack away at this godforsaken tome throughout the weekend and still found himself miles from the finish line on Monday night when he wrote this note that you're currently reading which he attributed to a non-existent editor. Get back to work Ron].

TWEET OF THE WEEK

I would argue that the coolest player-caddie combo of all-time is me and the last guy who caddied for me* but I will concede that Chi Chi Rodriguez and Rabbit Dyer are in the conversation.   

The coolest player-caddie combo of all time? #TheMasters pic.twitter.com/kmHVnnCqXp

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) April 1, 2022

GOLF ANALYSIS IN THE AGE OF ENLIGHTENMENT 

The Masters field is always an embarrassment of riches but this year is like the damn gift room at Kendall Roy's birthday party. There are thirteen players in the field who have multiple top tens over the last five years and eight of them are major winners. The others that fit that criteria are the nothing to sneeze at quintet of Cameron Smith, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Corey Conners and Marc Leishman. 

And those thirteen don't even include Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Colin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay and defending champion Hideki Matsuyama. And THOSE nineteen don't include two-time winner Bubba Watson who you know is going to contend for and probably win at least one more green jacket. 

Let us proceed under the assumption that this year's winner will emerge from that list of twenty** so the next step is to run them through the FGR super computer a/k/a G.A.G. ("Golf Analysis Gizmo") and see what it thinks.

20. Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki had to withdraw last week with a neck injury and defending Masters champions are on a five year run of MC, MC, T36, T38 and MC. Best case scenario here is an early Sunday stroll up the 18th fairway to a well-deserved standing ovation while Jim Nantz rambles-on about how significant Matsuyama's win was for the development of golf in a country that invented the triple-decker driving range like forty years ago.

19. Webb Simpson

I may have Webb ranked a bit low on this list considering he's finished top twenty in his last four trips. Slight downgrade for not having a top thirty finish in a full field event since the RSM Classic in November but huge upgrade for paying-off announcers not to regularly use his full four part name (James Frederick Webb Simpson). 

18. Justin Rose

Rosy has played the Masters sixteen times and finished top ten in six of them with three other top twenties. He's only missed the cut once (in 2019 when I picked him to win) and he finished 7th last year. Yes he has dropped to 56th in the world rankings but he still manages to look incredibly uncool playing golf in sunglasses which is quite a feat.  

17. Marc Leishman

Look, is Leishman ever going to win a major? No. His type of player gets one shot and he didn't capitalize on that at the 2015 British Open when he lost in a playoff. Sorry, I don't make the rules. But that doesn't mean he's not capable of a nice showing this week as evidenced by his three top fifteen finishes in the last four years.  

16. Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay has played the Masters four times as a professional and he has two missed cuts to go with a T9 and T17. Throughout history there have been so many very good players who have never quite figured-out Augusta. I can't name any at the moment but I know they're out there. Maybe he's not one of those guys (whoever they may be) but we're going to need to see another decent showing before he gets the FGR's attention. 

"I've been working
on my chipping."

15. Bubba Watson

Bubba at Augusta is like a Giancarlo Esposito character. You never quite know when he's going to show-up but it's always guaranteed to be bad news for everyone else. He has green jackets from 2012 and 2014 plus a T5 in 2018 (Bubba not Giancarlo). Kind of feels like he's due for another run. 

14. Patrick Reed

Reed has backed-up his 2018 win with top tens in 2020 and 2021 so it fucking looks like he's going to be a fucking fixture on this fucking list for the foreseeable fucking future.

13. Tony Finau

[Pulls eye slowly away from microscope and tilts head to ponder what he has just seen] 

"Hey guys you may want to come take a look at this . . ." 

And what he discovered was that Tony Finau plays well in the majors. Like really well. His current Masters run is T10, T5, T38, T10 and over the last four years he also has two top tens in each of the other three. Ignore his recent mediocrity and wager on him with the confidence of Paul Azinger stating the obvious.

12. Rory McIlroy

I stand by my assertion that Rory will never win this tournament but he has finished top ten in six of the last eight years. (I hope my assertion is wrong by the way). Would have a little more faith in him this week if he hadn't sprayed it around in Florida like a kid who's dad made him play on vacation.  

11. Corey Conners

I bet if Corey Conners became the second Canadian to win the Masters, Mike Weir would say all of the right things and then later mumble into his Molson, "yeah but I did it left-handed."  

10. Cameron Smith

The Players champion has gone T5, T51, T2 and T10 in his last four trips to Augusta so I know I should have him ranked higher. Hopefully you will read that very subjective logic and apply some objective logic to it.   

9. Colin Morikawa

Morikawa has now played in a total of eight majors. He's won two of them and finished T4 and T8 in two others. His Masters record is a T44 in 2020 and a T18 last year so he hasn't quite figured it out yet but, to quote the now somewhat infamous John Cleese from Silverado, "you idiot, he's hit everything he's aimed at" so it won't be long until he's sporting the green jacket.

8. Justin Thomas 

I suckered myself into overthinking my way into a Justin Thomas win last year and then watched him muddle his way to a T21 by shooting 75-73 on the weekend. That means he still only has one Masters top ten (4th in 2020) as his fellow Ryder Cup regulars have been stocking-up on them up like Pop Tarts in a pandemic (oh right, that was just me). I'm going to hedge this year and rank him 8th which means I won't wager a nickel on him but wouldn't blame you if you did.  

7. Jon Rahm

We have colliding trends with Rahm this year. His last four finishes at Augusta have been 4th, T9, T7 and T5 but he's been slumping since February. I'm not sure he has the patience to wait for a table at Applebee's on a Saturday night much less win at Augusta but it's almost guaranteed that he'll be in contention.  

6. Viktor Hovland

Hovland probably needs a few more trips around Augusta and the lack of any major top ten is concerning but you've got to start somewhere. (So now playing well in other majors is conveniently irrelevant?). Oh shut-up and go write your own blog. 

5. Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler will be a fashionable pick this week which I guess makes sense considering he's won three of the last five tournaments he's played (if you're into that kind of thing). His Masters record is solid with a T18 and T19 in his only two appearances. Unfortunately, he's the favorite on DraftKings and I researched the last five years to discover that the DraftKings favorite has never finished higher than 8th. Actually, I didn't do any such research but I have a strong hunch. 

Live action photo of DJ
fleeing a burning building.

4. Dustin Johnson

Before his missed cut last year which I am convinced was caused by the fact that he could have sworn he just won the same tournament a few months before, D.J. had a run at Augusta that went T6, T4, T10, T2 and Win. You don't need much sign of a pulse to know that D.J. is in solid form which is good because he wouldn't hit 50 BPM's if he was trying to outswim a bull shark. The recent tie for 4th at the Match Play is enough for me. 

3. Brooks Koepka

Ah Brooks. Always the "X" factor. We know about the four major wins but he's played twenty-four of them since 2015 and finished top ten in fifteen. During that stretch he's only missed one cut. The Masters used to be his weakest of the four but he finished T2 in 2019 and T7 in 2020 so he's clearly found something and it would shock very few were he to eventually pull-off the career slam. If all of that sounds like I'm talking myself into picking him this week, you're not wrong.  

2. Jordan Spieth

Hey remember that time way back from like 2014-2018 when Spieth went T2, Win, T2, 11th, and 3rd at the Masters? Well he took a brief respite to suck at golf for a bit (as we all do), but then came back last year to finish T3. Until he takes another respite, the only question you need to ask yourself this week is whether you pick him here or at the British Open. 

1. Xander Schauffele

We're entering the territory where it's fair to ask whether Schauffele is going to win a major or become the American Lee Westwood. He's played in nineteen of them and finished in the top ten nine times with six of those being top fives. His game appears to have few if any weaknesses and he's won big tournaments against high level fields. Also, I like him and I'm very close to a place where I want to pick him to win the Masters every year until he does it or I quit this gig, whichever comes first. Just thought you should know that.   

So that's it. That's the list. Are there good players who failed to make it like Matthew Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, Will Zalatoris and Daniel Berger? Of course there are but you and I both know that none of those guys are going to win so why even rank them? Seriously. Don't waste my time.

The Tiger Woods Addendum

As I prepared to launch this giant word salad into the ether, I realized that I had failed to even make reference to the biggest story of the tournament. Look, we all know that Tiger is not going to win this year but the cool thing is that we get to see him play at all. And if he manages to make the cut, we'll get to see every shot he hits on Saturday and Sunday multiple times as they could replay his rounds later in the day and they would out-rate live coverage of the actual leaders. 

And if he somehow finds himself anywhere near the top of the leaderboard at any point during the tournament? Great Caesar's ghost then we all get to act like a bunch of 14 year olds at our first Backstreet Boys concert and I'll be the one in the front row begging Brian Littrell to marry me.   

One and Done Pick: Xander Schauffele 

Just don't wear that freakin'
shirt with the jacket. Yikes.

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth 

Sleeper Pick: Si Woo Kim

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Dustin Johnson	$10,500
Jordan Spieth	$9,800
Xander Schauffele	$9,600
Brooks Koepka	$9,400
Russell Henley	$7,800
Paul Casey	$7,600
Corey Conners	$7,600
Patrick Reed	$7,400
Si Woo Kim	$7,100
Kevin Na	$6,800

As I peruse the chart below for the names of the players I ignored above who will inevitably have me face-palming by Sunday, Shane Lowry, Terrell Hatton and Abraham Ancer standout above the rest.

                                    THE CAPITAL ONE SOMEONE PLEASE 

                                     JUST FUCKING SHOOT ME ALREADY

                                     HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

During one of the final four games I wondered how many words I've heard Charles Barkley speak in my life and it immediately became my most depressing thought of 2022.

	DK Price	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Scottie Scheffler	$11,000	T18	T19	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jon Rahm	$10,800	T5	T7	T9	4th	T27
Dustin Johnson	$10,500	MC	1st	T2	T10	DNP
Justin Thomas	$10,300	T21	4th	T12	T17	T22
Collin Morikawa	$10,200	T18	T44	DNP	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$10,100	T21	DNP	T32	DNP	DNP
Rory McIlroy	$10,000	MC	T5	T21	T5	T7
Cameron Smith	$9,900	T10	T2	T51	T5	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$9,800	T3	T46	T21	3rd	T11
Xander Schauffele	$9,600	T3	T17	T2	T50	DNP
Patrick Cantlay	$9,500	MC	T17	T9	MC	DNP
Brooks Koepka	$9,400	MC	T7	T2	DNP	T11
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,300	1st	T13	T32	19th	T11
Will Zalatoris	$9,200	2nd	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bryson DeChambeau	$9,100	T46	T34	T29	T38	DNP
Daniel Berger	$9,000	MC	DNP	DNP	T32	T27
Louis Oosthuizen	$8,900	T26	T23	T29	T12	T41
Shane Lowry	$8,800	T21	T25	MC	DNP	MC
Talor Gooch	$8,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tiger Woods	$8,500	DNP	T38	1st	T32	DNP
Sungjae Im	$8,400	MC	T2	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$8,300	54th	T34	T18	T32	T9
Joaquin Niemann	$8,200	T40	DNP	DNP	MC	DNP
Tony Finau	$8,100	T10	T38	T5	T10	DNP
Tyrell Hatton	$8,000	T18	MC	T56	T44	MC
Abraham Ancer	$7,900	T26	T13	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sergio Garcia	$7,800	MC	DNP	MC	MC	1st
Russell Henley	$7,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	T15	T11
Mattew Fitzpatrick	$7,700	T34	T46	T21	T38	32nd
Tommy Fleetwood	$7,700	T46	T19	T36	T17	MC
Paul Casey	$7,600	T26	T38	MC	T15	6th
Corey Conners	$7,600	T8	T10	T46	DNP	DNP
Webb Simpson	$7,500	T12	T10	T5	T20	MC
Justin Rose	$7,500	7th	T23	MC	T12	2nd
Patrick Reed	$7,400	T8	T10	T36	1st	MC
Billy Horschel	$7,400	T50	T38	T56	MC	DNP
Bubba Watson	$7,300	T26	57th	T12	T5	MC
Marc Leishman	$7,300	T5	T13	T49	9th	T43
Jason Kokrak	$7,200	49th	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Seamus Power	$7,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Homa	$7,100	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Si Woo Kim	$7,100	T12	T34	T21	T24	MC
Robert MacIntyre	$7,000	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Young	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lee Westwood	$6,900	MC	T38	DNP	DNP	T22
Francesco Molinari	$6,900	52nd	MC	T5	T20	T33
Gary Woodland	$6,900	T46	MC	T32	MC	MC
Brian Harman	$6,800	T12	DNP	DNP	T44	DNP
Kevin Kisner	$6,800	MC	MC	T21	T28	T43
Kevin Na	$6,800	T12	T13	T46	DNP	MC
Harris English (O)	$6,700	T21	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
C. Bezuidenhout	$6,700	T40	T38	DNP	DNP	DNP
Erik van Rooyen	$6,700	DNP	W/D	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tom Hoge	$6,700	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Champ	$6,600	T26	T19	DNP	DNP	DNP
Thomas Pieters	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC	T4
Sepp Straka	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harold Varner, III	$6,600	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Matthew Wolff	$6,500	DQ	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Ryan Palmer	$6,500	T34	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Cameron Davis	$6,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Zach Johnson	$6,400	MC	T51	T58	T36	MC
Stewart Cink	$6,400	T12	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP
Lucas Glover	$6,400	DNP	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Danny Willett	$6,300	MC	T25	MC	MC	MC
Mackenzie Hughes `	$6,300	T40	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Charl Schwartzel	$6,200	T26	T25	MC	MC	3rd

Footnotes

* This is of course an unserious claim as my relationship with caddies tends to range from awkward to tense. Most people assume it's because I can be kind of an asshole but it really stems from the fact that I hate relying on others which then causes me to act like an asshole. I did, however, have a positive experience recently because the guy sized me up on the first hole and, for the rest of the round, he would simply hand me a club, tell me the yardage and then walk away with his vape pen before I had a chance to ask any questions. 

** Note that Bryson DeChambeau does not qualify for this list which means that I don't have to say anything nice about him or his big dumb golf game. I did not set it up that way but it sure as hell was a nice byproduct of the format.

Direct your questions, grievances and general inquiries to fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.