Fantasy Golf: The British Open Preview

The last time they played The Open at Royal St. George's was ten years ago when Darren Clarke beat Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson going away. It may be the most underrated of DJ's blown major opportunities as he was in the middle of the fairway on the reachable par five 14th just two shots back when he promptly blew a 2-iron out of bounds and made double bogey. That came on the heels of his minor meltdown at Pebble Beach and his bunker mishap at Whistling Straits the previous year. It would take him five years along with overcoming one more heartbreak and some ham-handed tournament officiating by the USGA before he'd finally break the curse at Oakmont.  

So does that mean I like DJ this week? Um no. Really just more of an excuse to reference some past FGR brilliance. For this week's picks you'll have to read on. 

TWEET OF THE WEEK*

I can live with the shorts and the Aviators but come on Phil. This ain't the Tuesday Men's Twilight Shamble at Clifton Park.

GOLF ANALYSIS THAT NOURISHES THE SOUL

It's the British Open and that means wagering and wagering means odds. According to Sports Betting Dime, U.S Open champ Jon Rahm is the prohibitive favorite at +800 and you know what that means . . . we're looking elsewhere. Especially when you can get over twice the value on Brooks Koepka (+1850) and Jordan Spieth (+2050). Here's our case for each of them:

Koepka: He's the best major player since Tiger Woods. By a lot. In addition to the four he's won, he's racked-up eleven other top 10 finishes since 2014 including three runner-ups in the last three years. Three of those top tens have been at the British. Apparently he doesn't give a rat's arse about conditions, course type or continent as long as it's a major.

"FGR you're always this close to
flying that cargo plane full of
rubber dogshit out of BWI."

Spieth: He's on a current run across the pond of T4-T30-Win-T9-T20 and, as you may have heard, that relatively steady run has occurred through a few peaks and valleys back home. He enters this week on a very solid eight tournament run including a win at the Texas Open, a runner-up at the Charles Schwab and a T3 at Augusta. If I had him available, he'd be the pick and Koepka would be #2. Man this feels like a really good place for a modified James Tolkan Top Gun quote but it's not quite materializing.  

Beyond the favorites I'm gambling that Louis Oosthuizen has one more major run in him this year and, as the 10th ranked player in the world, it's time for Tyrrell Hatton to step-up and contend. 

My Tony Finau logic is explained below along with the obligatory Bryson DeChambeau shot.

I'm convinced that either Adam Scott or Sergio Garcia has one more British Open run in them as they are probably the two players from the currently passing era who had the most opportunities to win it but didn't. Scott gave away his best shot at the Claret Jug in 2012 by closing with four straight bogeys to lose to Ernie Els by one. And Sergio let the 2007 title slip away to Padraig Harrington in a playoff after starting the final round six shots ahead of him. It was a classic Normanesque like clinic on how to play with the lead. 

Matt Fitzpatrick just finished T2 at the Scottish Open, has all of the tools and I had him on my list until I looked at his lone top ten finish in twenty-five major starts so I'm switching to Cameron Smith. Can't really make a case for him as he's been struggling a bit and his record here is limited and unimpressive but you need at least one gut pick. (Yeah you keep telling yourself that every week friend). 

The sleeper pick came down to Kevin Kisner and Lucas Herbert, neither of whom are bad choices but Herbert is one of the hottest golfers on the planet (Earth) having just won the Irish Open and backing it up with a T4 at the Scottish Open. You gotta figure he's going to play well at the next [blank]ish Open and that happens to be this week so there you go.

One and Done Pick: Brooks Koepka

I'm going with the guy built
like a big linebacker (from a 
small Division III school).

Other Guy I'd Pick: Jordan Spieth

Sleeper Pick: Lucas Herbert

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Brooks Koepka	$10,700
Jordan Spieth	$9,700
Louis Oosthuizen	$9,300
Tyrell Hatton	$9,000
Tony Finau	$8,400
Adam Scott	$8,100
Cameron Smith	$7,800
Sergio Garcia	$7,600
Kevin Kisner	$6,900
Lucas Herbert	$6,800

I know they don't play the same course every year but there are clearly British Open guys and not British Open guys so we can still find value in recent performance. For example, Tony Finau appears to be a British Open guy because he's cool and Bryson DeChambeau is not a British Open guy because his parents named him "Bryson" and apparently made him watch a lot of Caillou** as a kid. 

Other British Open guys include Rickie Fowler, Alex Noren and Matt Kuchar. Interestingly, Ian Poulter not so much lately.   

                   THE DON'T SAVE YOUR MOST INEXPERIENCED

                     PLAYERS FOR THE END OF THE SHOOTOUT

                     HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART (OUCH)

	DK Price	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Jon Rahm	$11,300	T11	MC	T44	T59	DNP
Rory McIlroy	$10,900	MC	T2	T4	T5	DNP
Brooks Koepka	$10,700	T4	T39	T6	DNP	T10
Dustin Johnson	$10,400	T51	MC	T54	T9	T49
Xander Schauffele	$10,000	T41	T2	T20	DNP	DNP
B. DeChambeau	$9,900	MC	T51	DNP	MC	DNP
Jordan Spieth	$9,700	T20	T9	1st	T30	T4
Justin Thomas	$9,600	T11	MC	MC	T53	DNP
Louis Oosthuizen	$9,300	T20	T28	MC	MC	T2
Collin Morikawa	$9,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Viktor Hovland	$9,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tyrell Hatton	$9,000	T6	T51	MC	T5	MC
Patrick Cantlay	$8,900	T41	T12	DNP	DNP	DNP
Patrick Reed	$8,800	10th	T28	MC	T12	T20
Paul Casey	$8,600	T57	T51	T11	MC	T74
Will Zalatoris	$8,500	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Tony Finau	$8,400	3rd	T9	T27	T18	DNP
Webb Simpson	$8,300	T30	T12	T37	T39	T34
Scottie Scheffler	$8,200	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Adam Scott	$8,100	MC	T17	T22	T43	T10
Justin Rose	$8,000	T20	T2	T54	T22	4th
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,000	2nd	T12	T27	MC	MC
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$7,900	T20	MC	T44	MC	DNP
Shane Lowry	$7,900	1st	MC	MC	MC	MC
Cameron Smith	$7,800	T20	78th	MC	DNP	DNP
Jason Day	$7,700	MC	T17	T27	T22	T4
Marc Leishman	$7,700	MC	60th	T6	T53	T2
Joaquin Niemann	$7,700	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sergio Garcia	$7,600	T67	MC	T37	T5	T6
Abraham Ancer	$7,600	MC	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Lee Westwood	$7,500	T4	T61	T27	T22	T49
Phil Mickelson	$7,500	MC	T24	MC	2nd	T20
Francesco Molinari	$7,400	T11	1st	MC	T36	T40
Daniel Berger	$7,400	DNP	MC	T27	DNP	MC
Garrick Higgo	$7,400	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
C. Bezuidenhout	$7,400	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Gary Woodland	$7,300	MC	T67	T70	DNP	T58
Rickie Fowler	$7,300	T6	T28	T54	T33	T30
Robert MacIntyre	$7,300	T6	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harris English	$7,300	DNP	DNP	DNP	T46	T68
Alex Noren	$7,200	T11	T17	T6	T46	DNP
Branden Grace	$7,200	T51	MC	T6	T72	T20
Ian Poulter	$7,200	MC	MC	T14	DNP	MC
Matthew Wallace	$7,200	T51	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Russell Henley	$7,200	DNP	MC	T37	MC	T20
Jason Kokrak	$7,200	T32	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP
Bernd Wiesberger	$7,100	T32	DNP	T74	MC	T68
Danny Willett	$7,100	T6	T24	76th	T53	T6
Corey Conners	$7,100	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Max Homa	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Guido Migliozzi	$7,100	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Brian Harman	$7,100	MC	MC	MC	DNP	MC
Brandt Snedeker	$7,000	MC	MC	DNP	T22	MC
Henrik Stenson	$7,000	T20	T35	T11	1st	T40
Matt Kuchar	$7,000	T41	T9	2nd	T46	T58
Billy Horschel	$7,000	MC	DNP	MC	MC	T30
Victor Perez	$7,000	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Sam Horsefield	$7,000	MC	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP
Andy Sullivan	$6,900	MC	MC	T70	T12	T30
Kevin Kisner	$6,900	T30	T2	T54	76th	MC
Rafa Cabrera-Bello	$6,900	MC	74th	T4	T39	T40
Stewart Cink	$6,900	T20	T24	MC	DNP	T20
Brendon Todd	$6,900	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T12
Ryan Palmer	$6,900	MC	DNP	DNP	T30	T30
Kevin Streelman	$6,800	T57	DNP	DNP	DNP	MC
Cameron Tringale	$6,800	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	T58
Lucas Herbert	$6,800	DNP	T51	DNP	DNP	DNP
Emiliano Grillo	$6,700	MC	MC	MC	T12	DNP
Joost Luiten	$6,600	T32	DNP	T44	MC	MC

Footnotes

* It's British Open week so I felt the need to keep it golfy up top but oh my this might be the most FGR tweet ever.   

** If you've never been subjected to Caillou, it's a Canadian cartoon for kids about a 4 year old who has you praying by the end of every episode that he gets trampled by a dogsled team.

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