Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Fantasy Golf: The Masters Preview

I'm not going to bore you with any personal stories because I kind of recognize that Masters week is bigger than the FGR. Not to mention, I know we're all exhausted and no one wants to hear about how I didn't get drunk and do anything stupid over the weekend because where's the fun in that? (Shit I didn't even do a Fireball shot or pretend to try to smoke a cigarette). So we're going to keep it really golfy in honor of the occasion. 

Before we get to this week's preview, however, I want to take a moment to reflect back on last year's Masters because I don't really feel like Tiger Woods got enough credit for what he accomplished if you can believe that. Maybe it's because they moved the final round start time up to beat the weather or because it took two back nine double bogeys by Francesco Molinari to open the door. But I don't remember seeing a deep dive into the absurdly ridiculous final leaderboard that Tiger topped to win the green jacket. (Note that there could have been a dozen articles written on this very topic but I don't read anything anyone else writes about golf).

Check out this partial list of players (including contemporaneous world rankings) who finished in the top twelve and within five shots of the winning score:

He's simply the GOAT.  
End of story.
T2 - Dustin Johnson (2)

T2 - Brooks Koepka (4)

T2 - Xander Schauffele (10)  

T5 - Francesco Molinari (7)

T5 - Jason Day (14)

T5 - Tony Finau (15)

T5 - Webb Simpson (23)

T9 - Jon Rahm (8)

T9 - Rickie Fowler (9)

T9 - Patrick Cantlay (21)

T12 - Justin Thomas (5)

T12 - Matt Kuchar (16)

T12 - Bubba Watson (17)

That ain't the Mayakoba Classic field my friends. He out-kicked 7 of the top 10 players in the world and 13 of the top 25 and he did it coming from behind with birdies on 13, 15 and 16 as that posse was swarming all around him. I don't even like Tiger that much anymore but that was some next level impressive shit, the likes of which we may never see again.

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Considering this is Masters week which should be a unifying experience, I decided to avoid tweets that were political in nature and especially those mocking the Four Seasons Total Landscaping debacle but then I changed my mind because I can't stop laughing at this . . . 


MARGINALLY HELPFUL GOLF ANALYSIS

There are a few premises on which my Masters' picks are based that I need to disclose so that you can decide whether you want to ride with me this week. It's like getting ready to go on a four day road trip with seven guys in two cars and as you're making your vehicle choice based on the quality of conversation, one of the two drivers announces that "I plan to eat a shitload of queso dip and listen to a fuck ton of Coldplay boys!" You'll have to decide if I'm that driver in this misguided analogy or the other one based on the following:

  • I believe that Bryson DeChambeau was sent to this Earth to erode happiness from one of the few places it still exists and I will look for any excuse not to pick him even if that excuse is that I have to drive my Aunt Martha to the dentist (like I would ever drive that mean old bat to the dentist*).
  • I don't believe Rory is ever going to win the Masters.
  • I think Justin Thomas has less of a chance to win the Masters than Rory and that has everything to do with something a good golfer once told me about how he putts. (I didn't understand it at the time and can't remember it now).
  • I believe the best shot that Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar have to win majors is at Augusta, though now I just want to see Kuch gag one late and we all know why.
  • I believe that Phil Mickelson is going to contend at least one more time . . . just not this year. 

So with that in mind, the FGR predicts that one of last year's three runner-ups is going to break through with DJ being the most likely after his strong showing in Houston last week. You could argue that his "A" game is better than anyone else's "A" game and there is no way that his final resume is only going to include only one major win. I wouldn't be surprised if he won by 4+ shots this year. 

You can make almost as strong a case for Schauffele who now has seven major top tens in thirteen tries after his 5th place finish at the U.S. Open. It's not if but when for him. 

And that brings us to Koepka who has dropped from #1 in the world to 12th since the start of 2020 but just shot 65-65 on the weekend in Houston. The schedule has been so out of whack that it's easy to forget that he's won four of the last twelve majors and his worst finish in 2019 was a T4 at the British Open. You know there is nothing he'd rather do than snuff out Bryson's limelight and troll him while holding his four major trophies while wearing the green jacket. Talk about a unifying message. 

The rest of the picks are pretty chalky but this is the one tournament where that's ok (as evidenced by last year's final leaderboard). Augusta was practically built for Bubba and Jason Day has been in position to win this thing three times including last year. Rickie Fowler is a bit of a flyer because he's been struggling but I'm sensing a feel good run for him this week. And Kuchar, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Ian Poulter and Francesco Molinari have played here a combined sixteen times in the last five years with zero missed cuts between them so that should be four live cards going into the weekend.

I don't know about you, but to quote my favorite house music D.J.**, I'm downright G. Gordon Giddy. 

That swagger is going to look
damn cool in a green jacket.

One and Done Pick: Dustin Johnson

Other Guy I'd Pick: Xander Schauffele

Sleeper Pick: Ian Poulter

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Dustin Johnson

$10,000

Xander Schauffele

$9,800

Brooks Koepka

$9,700

Bubba Watson

$9,000

Jason Day

$8,400

Rickie Fowler

$8,100

Matthew Fitzpatrick

$7,600

Matt Kuchar

$7,200

Ian Poulter

$7,000

Francesco Molinari

$6,700

This might be the most valuable historical performance chart you'll read all year, if not ever. Notice how it reveals that some guys play well at Augusta almost without fail (Kuchar, Molinari and even Adam Hadwin) while others just can't seem to figure it out (Tyrrell Hatton, Gary Woodland and Shane Lowry). Though don't be surprised if Hatton pulls a 2016 Danny Willet. He's playing about as well as anyone on the planet and, if we've every deserved a miked-up snarky Brit contending for a major on Sunday, 2020 is the year. 

                                THE WALDORF ASTORIA PEST CONTROL 

                                    HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART

 

DK Price

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Bryson DeChambeau

$11,200

T29

T38

DNP

T21

DNP

Justin Thomas

$10,700

T12

T17

T22

T39

DNP

Jon Rahm

$10,500

T9

4th

T27

DNP

DNP

Rory McIlroy

$10,200

T21

T5

T7

T10

4th

Dustin Johnson

$10,000

T2

T10

DNP

T4

T6

Xander Schauffele

$9,800

T2

T50

DNP

DNP

DNP

Brooks Koepka

$9,700

T2

DNP

T11

T21

T33

Patrick Cantlay

$9,600

T9

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

Collin Morikawa

$9,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Tyrell Hatton

$9,400

T56

T44

MC

DNP

DNP

Webb Simpson

$9,300

T5

T20

MC

T29

T28

Patrick Reed

$9,200

T36

1st

MC

T49

T22

Tiger Woods

$9,100

1st

T32

DNP

DNP

T17

Bubba Watson

$9,000

T12

T5

MC

T37

T38

Adam Scott

$8,900

T18

T32

T9

T42

T38

Tony Finau

$8,800

T5

T10

DNP

DNP

DNP

Hideki Matsuyama

$8,700

T32

19th

T11

T7

5th

Tommy Fleetwood

$8,600

T36

T17

MC

DNP

DNP

Matthew Wolff

$8,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Jason Day

$8,400

T5

T20

T22

T10

T28

Jordan Spieth

$8,200

T21

3rd

T11

T2

1st

Rickie Fowler

$8,100

T9

2nd

T11

MC

T12

Paul Casey

$8,000

MC

T15

6th

T4

6th

Louis Oosthuizen

$7,900

T29

T12

T41

T15

T19

Scottie Scheffler

$7,800

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Justin Rose

$7,700

MC

T12

2nd

T10

T2

Matthew Fitzpatrick

$7,600

T21

T38

32nd

T7

DNP

Phil Mickelson

$7,500

T18

T36

T22

MC

T2

Sungjae Im

$7,500

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Abraham Ancer

$7,400

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Cameron Smith

$7,300

T51

T5

DNP

T55

DNP

Gary Woodland

$7,300

T32

MC

MC

DNP

MC

Shane Lowry

$7,300

MC

DNP

MC

T39

MC

Billy Horschel

$7,200

T56

MC

DNP

T17

MC

Lee Westwood

$7,200

DNP

DNP

T22

T2

T46

Matt Kuchar

$7,200

T12

T28

T4

T24

T46

Brendon Todd

$7,100

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

MC

Kevin Kisner

$7,100

T21

T28

T43

DNP

DNP

Danny Willett

$7,000

MC

MC

MC

1st

T38

Ian Poulter

$7,000

T12

T44

DNP

T49

T6

Jason Kokrak

$7,000

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

B. Wiesberger

$6,900

DNP

T24

T43

T34

T22

Brandt Snedeker

$6,900

MC

DNP

T22

T10

MC

Marc Leishman

$6,900

T49

9th

T43

MC

DNP

Henrik Stenson

$6,800

T36

T5

MC

T24

T19

Matt Wallace

$6,800

MC

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Zach Johnson

$6,800

T58

T36

MC

MC

T9

Francesco Molinari

$6,700

T5

T20

T33

DNP

DNP

Kevin Na

$6,700

T46

DNP

MC

DNP

T12

R. Cabrera-Bello

$6,600

T36

T38

MC

T17

DNP

Adam Hadwin

$6,500

DNP

T24

T36

DNP

DNP

Charl Schwartzel

$6,500

MC

MC

3rd

MC

T38

Charles Howell, III

$6,400

T32

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

Footnotes

* I of course don't have an Aunt Martha. 

** Yes I have a friend who is a D.J. and I don't know if what he plays is actually "house music" but hat's what I call pretty much everything that isn't The Who, Rush and The Allman Brothers. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.

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