[Editor's Note: The FGR is in Florida on spring break so the following may be somewhat disjointed as it was written through the din of family vacation chatter and WOULD EVERYONE PLEASE JUST SHUT THE FUCK UP FOR FIFTEEN MINUTES?!?]
I gotta be honest. Last weekend stung a bit because if Tommy Fleetwood even had Van de Veldian level course management skills, he would have won The Players by three shots and I would have looked like a genius. The most obvious example was aiming directly at the flag on 17 and ricocheting it off the railroad ties when the way to get it close was to drop it 10-15 feet left of the pin and let it feed down to the hole. But I fully expected that bullshit result following the classic TPC Sawgrass bullshit lucky bounce eagle he made on 16 to get him back within two shots of the lead. The purpose of that two hole jaunt was clearly just to: (a) give Dan Hicks one more tingle in his nether regions and (b) fuck with me.
The real death blow to Fleetwood's chances actually came over an hour earlier on the second shot at the par five 11th. Everyone forgot about that one because of the mind-blowingly awful decision that Jon Rahm made on the same hole three minutes later but here was the scenario.* Fleetwood was -13 (when it looked like -15 could win) and he was in the fairway with 236 yards to the hole downwind for his second shot. Anywhere left of the hole leaves a really good chance for an up and down birdie and he still has the reachable par four 12th and very reachable par five 16th ahead of him. Oh yeah, his playing partner Rahm was in jail so, if there was ever a time to just hit a ball onto dry land, this was it.
Naturally he took the all or nothing line and dunked it right in the water with a swing that could best be described as lacking inspiration and fortitude. The result was a 6 on a hole on which four of the other top six players on the final leaderboard made birdie and no one else made worse than par. At least Rahm had an excuse for hitting in the water. Once he chose his shot, he had no chance in hell of hitting it anywhere else. All Fleetwood had to do was aim left of the pin and make semi-solid contact. Apparently he did neither.
I'm not looking to pile-on Tommy who is almost impossible not to root for but it does remind us that the really great ones who have racked-up multiple majors and other prestigious titles are probably most adept at not making bogeys (or worse) in those moments down the stretch when they will serve the dual purpose of killing your momentum while pumping life into your opponent. You can't find a similar moment in history when Tiger or Jack in their primes hit a shot like that with the tournament on the line (at least I don't think you can). We love guys like Fleetwood who are cut-out of the Mickelson mold but, if you're going to wager your hard-earned coin on their decision making skills, you better be ready to find yourself sitting on a tranquil beach with your family, gentle gulf breeze blowing and nothing but the sound of the surf being occasionally interrupted by you spitting venomous f-bombs at your phone.
@GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
Note to self: Swing with more violence this year.
THIS WEEK'S SALIENT ANALYSIS
Last week wasn't all bad. Of the four players I thought would win (Fleetwood, McIlroy, Garcia and Molinari), at least I went with the second best option and now I still have the other three to use later in the season. And if you think that actually provides me with any level of solace, then clearly we've never met. I need a win to extricate myself from this bitter funk and I need it now.
Normally when I have my back up against the wall like this I freak-out and pick the best player in the field who proceeds to finish tied for 37th, wrecks my season and leaves me feeling like I just accidentally ran over the neighbor's cat (again). But I'm not going to do that this time dammit, especially not this week on a course that is going to take the driver out of Dustin Johnson's hands. I'm also steering clear of Jon Rahm who is still in a timeout and not likely to get his shit together on a track that has yielded victories to the likes of Jim Furyk, Luke Donald and the inimitable Kevin Streelman.
Jason Day is intriguing but why would you want to pick someone who would make for a pleasant weekend of casual viewing when you have the golden opportunity to hate-root for either Sergio Garcia or Patrick Reed? If things go the way I anticipate, these two will be dueling on Sunday in a Ryder Cup style match-up only everyone in the United States and Europe will come together in their shared support of every other player in the field (except maybe Graeme McDowell).
To balance out the awful at the top of your line-up I have compiled a list of supporting players from Sweden, Canada and Wisconsin where everyone is extra nice. Also, the Europeans seem to be on a mission to continue kicking our ass so I fully expect Russell Knox, Tyrrell Hatton and/or defending champion Paul Casey to be in the mix at the end. I'm going with Knox because he's been lurking in a way that's reminiscent of 2015-16 when he won twice and had two runner-ups in the space of ten months. You will notice that I have in no way endorsed Rafa Cabrera-Bello who's unexpected DFL finish at The Players torpedoed nearly all of my potential winning options. He is therefore dead to me indefinitely.
One and Done Pick: Sergio Garcia
Other Guy I'd Pick: Patrick Reed
Sleeper Pick: Scott Brown
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Not a lot to glean from the historical chart. As noted above it's a straight hitter's course with Gary Woodland's win in 2011 being the one clear outlier. These tight tracks tend to bring-out the best in somewhat forgotten players so don't be surprised if Luke Donald, Bill Haas or Stewart Cink grabs a top ten. And you have to go back further than 2014 to fully understand why I like Cameron Tringale and Scott Brown. In the case of Tringale, you actually have to go all the way back to 1982 when he helped me and my brother escape from government agents on bikes to help an alie . . . I've said too much.
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA APPLEBEE'S TUESDAY NIGHT
EARLY-BIRD SPECIAL HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Footnote
* Unlike Grant Thornton, I love to beat my own drum so this is where I pat myself on the back for the following prediction from last week's preview . . . "you need to avoid players who can't accept that life and golf are not fair which eliminates high-strung guys like Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau." Everyone who has watched Jon Rahm play golf for twenty minutes could see that back-nine meltdown coming. It was like watching Jim Rome and Jim Everett film a reunion interview.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
I gotta be honest. Last weekend stung a bit because if Tommy Fleetwood even had Van de Veldian level course management skills, he would have won The Players by three shots and I would have looked like a genius. The most obvious example was aiming directly at the flag on 17 and ricocheting it off the railroad ties when the way to get it close was to drop it 10-15 feet left of the pin and let it feed down to the hole. But I fully expected that bullshit result following the classic TPC Sawgrass bullshit lucky bounce eagle he made on 16 to get him back within two shots of the lead. The purpose of that two hole jaunt was clearly just to: (a) give Dan Hicks one more tingle in his nether regions and (b) fuck with me.
The real death blow to Fleetwood's chances actually came over an hour earlier on the second shot at the par five 11th. Everyone forgot about that one because of the mind-blowingly awful decision that Jon Rahm made on the same hole three minutes later but here was the scenario.* Fleetwood was -13 (when it looked like -15 could win) and he was in the fairway with 236 yards to the hole downwind for his second shot. Anywhere left of the hole leaves a really good chance for an up and down birdie and he still has the reachable par four 12th and very reachable par five 16th ahead of him. Oh yeah, his playing partner Rahm was in jail so, if there was ever a time to just hit a ball onto dry land, this was it.
Naturally he took the all or nothing line and dunked it right in the water with a swing that could best be described as lacking inspiration and fortitude. The result was a 6 on a hole on which four of the other top six players on the final leaderboard made birdie and no one else made worse than par. At least Rahm had an excuse for hitting in the water. Once he chose his shot, he had no chance in hell of hitting it anywhere else. All Fleetwood had to do was aim left of the pin and make semi-solid contact. Apparently he did neither.
I'm not looking to pile-on Tommy who is almost impossible not to root for but it does remind us that the really great ones who have racked-up multiple majors and other prestigious titles are probably most adept at not making bogeys (or worse) in those moments down the stretch when they will serve the dual purpose of killing your momentum while pumping life into your opponent. You can't find a similar moment in history when Tiger or Jack in their primes hit a shot like that with the tournament on the line (at least I don't think you can). We love guys like Fleetwood who are cut-out of the Mickelson mold but, if you're going to wager your hard-earned coin on their decision making skills, you better be ready to find yourself sitting on a tranquil beach with your family, gentle gulf breeze blowing and nothing but the sound of the surf being occasionally interrupted by you spitting venomous f-bombs at your phone.
@GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
Note to self: Swing with more violence this year.
Gripped it, ripped it @cloefrankish https://t.co/Vqwt6q7jMj pic.twitter.com/SqHvdut1kL— Golf Babes (@golfbabes) March 18, 2019
THIS WEEK'S SALIENT ANALYSIS
Last week wasn't all bad. Of the four players I thought would win (Fleetwood, McIlroy, Garcia and Molinari), at least I went with the second best option and now I still have the other three to use later in the season. And if you think that actually provides me with any level of solace, then clearly we've never met. I need a win to extricate myself from this bitter funk and I need it now.
 |
| It literally took me writing this preview to realize that I'll be in Tampa this week. |
Jason Day is intriguing but why would you want to pick someone who would make for a pleasant weekend of casual viewing when you have the golden opportunity to hate-root for either Sergio Garcia or Patrick Reed? If things go the way I anticipate, these two will be dueling on Sunday in a Ryder Cup style match-up only everyone in the United States and Europe will come together in their shared support of every other player in the field (except maybe Graeme McDowell).
To balance out the awful at the top of your line-up I have compiled a list of supporting players from Sweden, Canada and Wisconsin where everyone is extra nice. Also, the Europeans seem to be on a mission to continue kicking our ass so I fully expect Russell Knox, Tyrrell Hatton and/or defending champion Paul Casey to be in the mix at the end. I'm going with Knox because he's been lurking in a way that's reminiscent of 2015-16 when he won twice and had two runner-ups in the space of ten months. You will notice that I have in no way endorsed Rafa Cabrera-Bello who's unexpected DFL finish at The Players torpedoed nearly all of my potential winning options. He is therefore dead to me indefinitely.
 |
| I'm a big fan of subtle imagery and this statue is saying that snakes like to dry hump tree trunks. Who knew? |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Patrick Reed
Sleeper Pick: Scott Brown
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Sergio Garcia
|
$10,100
|
Patrick Reed
|
$9,500
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$9,100
|
Ryan Moore
|
$8,700
|
Adam Hadwin
|
$8,300
|
Russell Knox
|
$8,100
|
Zach Johnson
|
$7,600
|
Steve Stricker
|
$7,400
|
Cameron Tringale
|
$6,500
|
Scott Brown
|
$6,300
|
Not a lot to glean from the historical chart. As noted above it's a straight hitter's course with Gary Woodland's win in 2011 being the one clear outlier. These tight tracks tend to bring-out the best in somewhat forgotten players so don't be surprised if Luke Donald, Bill Haas or Stewart Cink grabs a top ten. And you have to go back further than 2014 to fully understand why I like Cameron Tringale and Scott Brown. In the case of Tringale, you actually have to go all the way back to 1982 when he helped me and my brother escape from government agents on bikes to help an alie . . . I've said too much.
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA APPLEBEE'S TUESDAY NIGHT
EARLY-BIRD SPECIAL HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jon Rahm
|
$11,000
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jason Day
|
$10,700
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Webb Simpson
|
$10,400
|
T8
|
T41
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$10,100
|
4th
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Gary Woodland
|
$9,900
|
DNP
|
T58
|
T42
|
MC
|
T8
|
Paul Casey
|
$9,700
|
1st
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Patrick Reed
|
$9,500
|
T2
|
T38
|
T7
|
T2
|
DNP
|
Keegan Bradley
|
$9,400
|
T31
|
T58
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
L. Oosthuizen
|
$9,300
|
T16
|
DNP
|
T7
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jim Furyk
|
$9,200
|
7th
|
T41
|
DNP
|
T40
|
T20
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$9,100
|
MC
|
T7
|
T11
|
4th
|
DNP
|
Lucas Glover
|
$9,000
|
T74
|
T18
|
MC
|
T24
|
MC
|
Bubba Watson
|
$8,900
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
R. Cabrera-Bello
|
$8,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T44
|
DNP
|
Ryan Moore
|
$8,700
|
MC
|
T18
|
3rd
|
5th
|
DNP
|
Jason Kokrak
|
$8,600
|
T8
|
T58
|
MC
|
T7
|
T14
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$8,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$8,400
|
T31
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T53
|
DNP
|
Adam Hadwin
|
$8,300
|
T12
|
1st
|
MC
|
71st
|
DNP
|
Charl Schwartzel
|
$8,200
|
T49
|
6th
|
1st
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Russell Knox
|
$8,100
|
T16
|
MC
|
T56
|
T33
|
T25
|
Branden Grace
|
$8,000
|
T8
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
J.T. Poston
|
$7,900
|
DNP
|
T14
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Tyrrell Hatton
|
$7,900
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kevin Na
|
$7,800
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T22
|
T10
|
2nd
|
Russell Henley
|
$7,800
|
DNP
|
T9
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
M. Thompson
|
$7,600
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T58
|
Zach Johnson
|
$7,600
|
T16
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
G. McDowell
|
$7,500
|
T40
|
T14
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
K. Streelman
|
$7,400
|
MC
|
T18
|
MC
|
T40
|
T38
|
Steve Stricker
|
$7,400
|
T12
|
MC
|
T7
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Chez Reavie
|
$7,300
|
MC
|
T27
|
T22
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Danny Lee
|
$7,300
|
MC
|
T22
|
W/D
|
T7
|
MC
|
Bud Cauley
|
$7,200
|
MC
|
T58
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Nick Watney
|
$7,200
|
T59
|
T14
|
DNP
|
T53
|
DNP
|
Sung Kang
|
$7,200
|
73rd
|
MC
|
T22
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Sam Burns
|
$7,100
|
T12
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Trey Mullinax
|
$7,100
|
T8
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brian Harman
|
$7,000
|
DNP
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
T25
|
Stewart Cink
|
$7,000
|
T31
|
T27
|
MC
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Jason Dufner
|
$6,900
|
MC
|
T11
|
T22
|
T24
|
T14
|
Scott Stallings
|
$6,900
|
T31
|
68th
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
Harris English
|
$6,800
|
MC
|
T27
|
MC
|
T10
|
T38
|
Sean O'Hair
|
$6,800
|
T12
|
W/D
|
W/D
|
T2
|
74th
|
Vaughn Taylor
|
$6,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Bill Haas
|
$6,700
|
T49
|
T41
|
2nd
|
DNP
|
T14
|
Luke Donald
|
$6,600
|
T64
|
MC
|
T22
|
T53
|
T4
|
C. Tringale
|
$6,500
|
DNP
|
MC
|
MC
|
T17
|
T25
|
Scott Brown
|
$6,300
|
T64
|
MC
|
T7
|
MC
|
MC
|
Footnote
* Unlike Grant Thornton, I love to beat my own drum so this is where I pat myself on the back for the following prediction from last week's preview . . . "you need to avoid players who can't accept that life and golf are not fair which eliminates high-strung guys like Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau." Everyone who has watched Jon Rahm play golf for twenty minutes could see that back-nine meltdown coming. It was like watching Jim Rome and Jim Everett film a reunion interview.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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