People often ask me, "do you actually compile and cleverly arrange all of that absurdly useful data that you post on your site?" And the answer is "yes" and then the next question is "why?" and this exchange has never really happened but I'm going to answer the question anyway. The reason is actually threefold:
1. I've always had an irrational passion for writing down numbers. Not really doing anything with them. Just writing them down. I recently found a notebook from when I was about ten years old that I had filled with the NFL statistical leaders in like twenty different categories. Rushing yards, passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, field goal percentage, etc. I just spent hours upon hours transcribing them from a stat book into a spiral notebook for no apparent reason. I think it ended-up being about forty pages jammed with handwritten names and numbers. This might explain why my parents kept guns in their bedroom;
2. I have convinced myself that, by actually putting tournament results into a spreadsheet manually, it gives me a better feel for the trends thereby making me a more effective forecaster. Of course there is no evidence that this is true and you could probably make a case based on my recent picks that it has exactly the opposite effect. And you could also go straight to hell; and
3. It's cathartic. Believe it or not, I have a real job and people rely on me to make important decisions about stuff so staring at old golf leaderboards while I drink coffee provides a nice peaceful interlude. Sure I've accidentally signed a few contracts as "Xander Schauffele" and "Kiradech Aphibarnrat" but no one's reading that shit anyway.
On to our new segue . . .
@GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
The Arnold Palmer Invitational pick used to be easy because Henrik Stenson was a mortal lock to finish top five and he should've won this thing at least twice in the last five years. Believe me, as the guy who picked him, I know. But now Henrik is in one of his funky places coming-off three missed cuts and a tie for 54th at the no-cut WGC-Mexico Championship. I expect a solid but not spectacular performance from the Swede.
So how about one of the favorites? Well any course on which Matt Every has won back to back titles scares me so I'm holding-off on Rory, Rose, Fowler and DeChambeau, all of whom are seriously viable options this week. Though I'm still entertaining the notion of picking Rickie because where else am I going to use him? The Masters? No seriously.
Instead I'm going to take the somewhat cowardly approach and pick [audible sigh] Marc Leishman. He's playing great with top five finishes in four of his last six starts and you can almost make that four of his last five because the course set-up in Mexico was not his thing. Bay Hill on the other hand is his thing as he won here in 2017 and then backed that up with a tie for 7th last year. The problem with Leishman is that he always without fail let's me down like I ran over his dog back in '87. Marc it wasn't me I swear! I was at college and didn't even have car!
As for the rest of the picks, I'm going with Rose over Rory and the only reason I'm not strongly considering Francisco Molinari for my one and done this week is because he's looking like the man at The Players. Keegan Bradley is back to playing solid golf and, the last time he was consistently doing that, he had back to back top three finishes here. The aforementioned Matt Every also seems to have rediscovered his game and he got to shake Arnie's hand after both of his career wins so pencil him in for at least a top twenty. The rest of the picks are kind of hunchy and born out of the fact that I wanted more of an international flavor. And yes I've reached the point where I'll try anything.
One and Done Pick: Marc Leishman
Other Guy I'd Pick: Francesco Molinari
Sleeper Pick: Kiradech Aphibarnrat
DraftKings Top Ten Values
We've got a lot of first-timers and guys who've only dabbled at Bay Hill so there's not a lot of intel to go on for the lower priced options. The recent top fives here by Ryan Moore and Kevin Kisner stand-out but those guys along with Brandt Snedeker and Kyle Stanley have been playing some less than inspired golf lately. However, if the spirit moves you on one of them, be my guest. No go ahead. Really. What do I know? (Don't answer that).
THE PENZOIL HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
1. I've always had an irrational passion for writing down numbers. Not really doing anything with them. Just writing them down. I recently found a notebook from when I was about ten years old that I had filled with the NFL statistical leaders in like twenty different categories. Rushing yards, passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, field goal percentage, etc. I just spent hours upon hours transcribing them from a stat book into a spiral notebook for no apparent reason. I think it ended-up being about forty pages jammed with handwritten names and numbers. This might explain why my parents kept guns in their bedroom;
2. I have convinced myself that, by actually putting tournament results into a spreadsheet manually, it gives me a better feel for the trends thereby making me a more effective forecaster. Of course there is no evidence that this is true and you could probably make a case based on my recent picks that it has exactly the opposite effect. And you could also go straight to hell; and
3. It's cathartic. Believe it or not, I have a real job and people rely on me to make important decisions about stuff so staring at old golf leaderboards while I drink coffee provides a nice peaceful interlude. Sure I've accidentally signed a few contracts as "Xander Schauffele" and "Kiradech Aphibarnrat" but no one's reading that shit anyway.
On to our new segue . . .
@GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
THIS WEEK'S ANALYSISLine 'em up, knock 'em down. "2/3. I’ll take it//🤷♀️🍯🤷♀️ #golf #girlsthatgolf" says Dixie State golfer Mei Brennan. https://t.co/Yf4CGlm2IT pic.twitter.com/STFr8uwtjP— Golf Babes (@golfbabes) March 2, 2019
The Arnold Palmer Invitational pick used to be easy because Henrik Stenson was a mortal lock to finish top five and he should've won this thing at least twice in the last five years. Believe me, as the guy who picked him, I know. But now Henrik is in one of his funky places coming-off three missed cuts and a tie for 54th at the no-cut WGC-Mexico Championship. I expect a solid but not spectacular performance from the Swede.
Instead I'm going to take the somewhat cowardly approach and pick [audible sigh] Marc Leishman. He's playing great with top five finishes in four of his last six starts and you can almost make that four of his last five because the course set-up in Mexico was not his thing. Bay Hill on the other hand is his thing as he won here in 2017 and then backed that up with a tie for 7th last year. The problem with Leishman is that he always without fail let's me down like I ran over his dog back in '87. Marc it wasn't me I swear! I was at college and didn't even have car!
As for the rest of the picks, I'm going with Rose over Rory and the only reason I'm not strongly considering Francisco Molinari for my one and done this week is because he's looking like the man at The Players. Keegan Bradley is back to playing solid golf and, the last time he was consistently doing that, he had back to back top three finishes here. The aforementioned Matt Every also seems to have rediscovered his game and he got to shake Arnie's hand after both of his career wins so pencil him in for at least a top twenty. The rest of the picks are kind of hunchy and born out of the fact that I wanted more of an international flavor. And yes I've reached the point where I'll try anything.
 |
| Respect. |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Francesco Molinari
Sleeper Pick: Kiradech Aphibarnrat
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Justin Rose
|
$10,700
|
Marc Leishman
|
$9,500
|
Francesco Molinari
|
$9,000
|
Keegan Bradley
|
$8,400
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$8,100
|
Ian Poulter
|
$8,000
|
Hao-Tong Li
|
$7,400
|
Matt Every
|
$7,400
|
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
|
$7,100
|
Patrick Rodgers
|
$6,900
|
We've got a lot of first-timers and guys who've only dabbled at Bay Hill so there's not a lot of intel to go on for the lower priced options. The recent top fives here by Ryan Moore and Kevin Kisner stand-out but those guys along with Brandt Snedeker and Kyle Stanley have been playing some less than inspired golf lately. However, if the spirit moves you on one of them, be my guest. No go ahead. Really. What do I know? (Don't answer that).
THE PENZOIL HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$11,400
|
1st
|
T4
|
T27
|
T11
|
DNP
|
Justin Rose
|
$10,700
|
3rd
|
T13
|
T9
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$10,400
|
T14
|
12th
|
DNP
|
T29
|
MC
|
Brooks Koepka
|
$10,200
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
W/D
|
T26
|
Jason Day
|
$9,900
|
T22
|
T23
|
1st
|
T17
|
DNP
|
Bryson DeChambeau
|
$9,700
|
2nd
|
DNP
|
T27
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Marc Leishman
|
$9,500
|
T7
|
1st
|
T17
|
MC
|
T31
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
$9,300
|
T49
|
T45
|
T6
|
T21
|
DNP
|
Phil Mickelson
|
$9,200
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$9,100
|
T26
|
T10
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Francesco Molinari
|
$9,000
|
T26
|
T7
|
T9
|
T17
|
T5
|
Patrick Reed
|
$8,900
|
T7
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T52
|
Billy Horschel
|
$8,800
|
T54
|
T13
|
T20
|
T43
|
T43
|
Tyrell Hatton
|
$8,700
|
T69
|
T4
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Charles Howell, III
|
$8,600
|
T14
|
T56
|
T46
|
T21
|
T35
|
Daniel Berger
|
$8,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T13
|
DNP
|
Keegan Bradley
|
$8,400
|
T26
|
T34
|
T36
|
T49
|
2nd
|
Jason Kokrak
|
$8,300
|
MC
|
T56
|
T20
|
T6
|
4th
|
Lucas Glover
|
$8,200
|
T49
|
T7
|
T27
|
MC
|
T14
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$8,100
|
4th
|
MC
|
T3
|
2nd
|
T5
|
Bubba Watson
|
$8,000
|
T66
|
T34
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
W/D
|
Ian Poulter
|
$8,000
|
T41
|
T41
|
T46
|
T21
|
T20
|
Loois Oosthuizen
|
$7,900
|
MC
|
T28
|
DNP
|
T9
|
DNP
|
Luke List
|
$7,900
|
T7
|
T17
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
J.B. Holmes
|
$7,800
|
T41
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T10
|
Si Woo Kim
|
$7,800
|
MC
|
T49
|
T63
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Adam Hadwin
|
$7,700
|
DNP
|
6th
|
T36
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Zach Johnson
|
$7,700
|
T26
|
T66
|
5th
|
T9
|
T43
|
Cameron Champ
|
$7,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Michael Thompson
|
$7,600
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Byeon Hun An
|
$7,500
|
T14
|
T49
|
T36
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Keith Mitchell
|
$7,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
|
$7,500
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Hao-Tong Li
|
$7,400
|
T54
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matt Every
|
$7,400
|
MC
|
T62
|
MC
|
1st
|
1st
|
Abraham Ancer
|
$7,300
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Ryan Moore
|
$7,300
|
T5
|
T34
|
74th
|
DNP
|
T60
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$7,200
|
MC
|
T28
|
T36
|
T13
|
T8
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$7,200
|
MC
|
T2
|
MC
|
T49
|
DNP
|
Kevin Na
|
$7,200
|
T36
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T6
|
T14
|
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
|
$7,100
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T6
|
T6
|
DNP
|
Kyle Stanley
|
$7,100
|
T14
|
T17
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Aaron Wise
|
$7,000
|
T41
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Graeme McDowell
|
$6,900
|
T22
|
T28
|
MC
|
MC
|
T10
|
Harris English
|
$6,900
|
T22
|
MC
|
MC
|
T29
|
T14
|
Patrick Rodgers
|
$6,900
|
T7
|
MC
|
T20
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Bill Haas
|
$6,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T8
|
Kevin Streelman
|
$6,800
|
T41
|
70th
|
MC
|
T67
|
DNP
|
Brian Harman
|
$6,400
|
T54
|
T13
|
T17
|
MC
|
MC
|
Stewart Cink
|
$6,200
|
T58
|
T28
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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