Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Fantasy Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

People often ask me, "do you actually compile and cleverly arrange all of that absurdly useful data that you post on your site?" And the answer is "yes" and then the next question is "why?" and this exchange has never really happened but I'm going to answer the question anyway. The reason is actually threefold:   

1. I've always had an irrational passion for writing down numbers. Not really doing anything with them. Just writing them down. I recently found a notebook from when I was about ten years old that I had filled with the NFL statistical leaders in like twenty different categories. Rushing yards, passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, field goal percentage, etc. I just spent hours upon hours transcribing them from a stat book into a spiral notebook for no apparent reason. I think it ended-up being about forty pages jammed with handwritten names and numbers. This might explain why my parents kept guns in their bedroom;


2. I have convinced myself that, by actually putting tournament results into a spreadsheet manually, it gives me a better feel for the trends thereby making me a more effective forecaster. Of course there is no evidence that this is true and you could probably make a case based on my recent picks that it has exactly the opposite effect. And you could also go straight to hell; and 


3. It's cathartic. Believe it or not, I have a real job and people rely on me to make important decisions about stuff so staring at old golf leaderboards while I drink coffee provides a nice peaceful interlude. Sure I've accidentally signed a few contracts as "Xander Schauffele" and "Kiradech Aphibarnrat" but no one's reading that shit anyway. 


On to our new segue . . .      


@GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK

THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS

The Arnold Palmer Invitational pick used to be easy because Henrik Stenson was a mortal lock to finish top five and he should've won this thing at least twice in the last five years. Believe me, as the guy who picked him, I know. But now Henrik is in one of his funky places coming-off three missed cuts and a tie for 54th at the no-cut WGC-Mexico Championship. I expect a solid but not spectacular performance from the Swede.

So how about one of the favorites? Well any course on which Matt Every has won back to back titles scares me so I'm holding-off on Rory, Rose, Fowler and DeChambeau, all of whom are seriously viable options this week. Though I'm still entertaining the notion of picking Rickie because where else am I going to use him? The Masters? No seriously. 

Instead I'm going to take the somewhat cowardly approach and pick [audible sigh] Marc Leishman. He's playing great with top five finishes in four of his last six starts and you can almost make that four of his last five because the course set-up in Mexico was not his thing. Bay Hill on the other hand is his thing as he won here in 2017 and then backed that up with a tie for 7th last year. The problem with Leishman is that he always without fail let's me down like I ran over his dog back in '87. Marc it wasn't me I swear! I was at college and didn't even have car!

As for the rest of the picks, I'm going with Rose over Rory and the only reason I'm not strongly considering Francisco Molinari for my one and done this week is because he's looking like the man at The Players. Keegan Bradley is back to playing solid golf and, the last time he was consistently doing that, he had back to back top three finishes here. The aforementioned Matt Every also seems to have rediscovered his game and he got to shake Arnie's hand after both of his career wins so pencil him in for at least a top twenty. The rest of the picks are kind of hunchy and born out of the fact that I wanted more of an international flavor. And yes I've reached the point where I'll try anything. 

Respect.
One and Done Pick: Marc Leishman

Other Guy I'd Pick: Francesco Molinari


Sleeper Pick: Kiradech Aphibarnrat


DraftKings Top Ten Values


Justin Rose
$10,700
Marc Leishman
$9,500
Francesco Molinari
$9,000
Keegan Bradley
$8,400
Henrik Stenson
$8,100
Ian Poulter
$8,000
Hao-Tong Li
$7,400
Matt Every
$7,400
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
$7,100
Patrick Rodgers
$6,900

We've got a lot of first-timers and guys who've only dabbled at Bay Hill so there's not a lot of intel to go on for the lower priced options. The recent top fives here by Ryan Moore and Kevin Kisner stand-out but those guys along with Brandt Snedeker and Kyle Stanley have been playing some less than inspired golf lately. However, if the spirit moves you on one of them, be my guest. No go ahead. Really. What do I know? (Don't answer that).


                      THE PENZOIL HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Rory McIlroy
$11,400
1st
T4
T27
T11
DNP
Justin Rose
$10,700
3rd
T13
T9
DNP
MC
Rickie Fowler
$10,400
T14
12th
DNP
T29
MC
Brooks Koepka
$10,200
DNP
MC
DNP
W/D
T26
Jason Day
$9,900
T22
T23
1st
T17
DNP
Bryson DeChambeau
$9,700
2nd
DNP
T27
DNP
DNP
Marc Leishman
$9,500
T7
1st
T17
MC
T31
Hideki Matsuyama
$9,300
T49
T45
T6
T21
DNP
Phil Mickelson
$9,200
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tommy Fleetwood
$9,100
T26
T10
DNP
DNP
DNP
Francesco Molinari
$9,000
T26
T7
T9
T17
T5
Patrick Reed
$8,900
T7
DNP
DNP
DNP
T52
Billy Horschel
$8,800
T54
T13
T20
T43
T43
Tyrell Hatton
$8,700
T69
T4
DNP
DNP
DNP
Charles Howell, III
$8,600
T14
T56
T46
T21
T35
Daniel Berger
$8,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
T13
DNP
Keegan Bradley
$8,400
T26
T34
T36
T49
2nd
Jason Kokrak
$8,300
MC
T56
T20
T6
4th
Lucas Glover
$8,200
T49
T7
T27
MC
T14
Henrik Stenson
$8,100
4th
MC
T3
2nd
T5
Bubba Watson
$8,000
T66
T34
DNP
DNP
W/D
Ian Poulter
$8,000
T41
T41
T46
T21
T20
Loois Oosthuizen
$7,900
MC
T28
DNP
T9
DNP
Luke List
$7,900
T7
T17
DNP
DNP
DNP
J.B. Holmes
$7,800
T41
DNP
DNP
MC
T10
Si Woo Kim
$7,800
MC
T49
T63
DNP
DNP
Adam Hadwin
$7,700
DNP
6th
T36
DNP
DNP
Zach Johnson
$7,700
T26
T66
5th
T9
T43
Cameron Champ
$7,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Michael Thompson
$7,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Byeon Hun An
$7,500
T14
T49
T36
DNP
DNP
Keith Mitchell
$7,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
$7,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Hao-Tong Li
$7,400
T54
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matt Every
$7,400
MC
T62
MC
1st
1st
Abraham Ancer
$7,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Ryan Moore
$7,300
T5
T34
74th
DNP
T60
Brandt Snedeker
$7,200
MC
T28
T36
T13
T8
Kevin Kisner
$7,200
MC
T2
MC
T49
DNP
Kevin Na
$7,200
T36
MC
DNP
T6
T14
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
$7,100
MC
DNP
T6
T6
DNP
Kyle Stanley
$7,100
T14
T17
DNP
DNP
DNP
Aaron Wise
$7,000
T41
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Graeme McDowell
$6,900
T22
T28
MC
MC
T10
Harris English
$6,900
T22
MC
MC
T29
T14
Patrick Rodgers
$6,900
T7
MC
T20
DNP
DNP
Bill Haas
$6,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
T8
Kevin Streelman
$6,800
T41
70th
MC
T67
DNP
Brian Harman
$6,400
T54
T13
T17
MC
MC
Stewart Cink
$6,200
T58
T28
MC
MC
DNP

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

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