The Fantasy Golf Report runs on three types of fuel that are most effective when blended properly. They are as follows: (1) A complicated and sometimes destructive love/hate relationship with the game of golf; (2) existential angst caused in large part by a complicated and sometimes destructive love/hate relationship with the game of golf; and (3) unsolicited praise from readers which temporally alleviates the symptoms of (2).
For reasons that escape me I've seen a recent uptick in reader support to the point where it's starting to make me feel anxious because apparently I can't have nice things. It all seems to be tracking along the same theme which is basically "good God man your picks are awful but at least you seem to have a sense of humor and the grammatical skills of B+ 10th grader* so keep at it." I have no idea why people suddenly seem interested. Maybe it's because I've devoted more time to writing about my sordid daily existence or maybe it's the @GolfBabes tweets or maybe it's because Tiger's back (you're getting warmer).
So without further ado, let me tell you about the three things I learned while in New York City last week to see John Mellencamp at the Beacon Theater. After all, "3" is the magic number this week and, if you don't believe me, just listen to Blind Melon explain it (I guarantee you'll be pleasantly surprised). Where was I? Right. Three things I learned:
1. Bars in Greenwich Village do not serve Bud Light. None of them. It's all craft this and artisanal that (and you can't spell "artisanal" without "anal"). I am now 100% convinced that the guy who came-up with the autumnal meade ad concept had just spent three days wandering the West Village in search of anything that wasn't an amber or a porter. He was probably on the verge of paying someone off Fyre Festival style before realizing that all he had to do was take a cab to the Dave & Buster's on West 42nd Street for all of the Bud Lights and pretzel dogs a man could want. (Note to the uninitiated: Taking your kids to the Dave & Busters on West 42nd Street to escape Times Square is like sticking your hand in the rotating blades of a lawnmower to make it quiet).
This mattered because I was in it for the long haul that day. My train left at 11:30 a.m. and I may or may not have had my first taste sitting outside of the Dunkin Donuts in Baltimore's Penn Station. Then I got a seat right next to the cafe car and hit it off swimmingly with Tim the proprietor. You can't just then interrupt that kind of momentum at 3:00 p.m. with a bunch of wheat beers and Belgian white ale. By then the pace has been set and you might as well switch to bourbon which leads me to . . .
2. I should never switch to bourbon. But what was I supposed to do at 1:00 a.m.? After trekking to the upper west side and watching Mellencamp roam around the stage for ninety minutes like a dad looking for his keys, we ended-up back in the Village and like hell if I was going to take the damn microbrew tour again. Not to mention, I was completely wired-up by the city. You gotta understand that where I live, the only reason you're still out at 1:00 a.m. on a Wednesday is if you're playing poker in the back of a dry cleaner. By that point, all of my local friends are three hours removed from folding their v-neck sweaters, chasing an ambien with red wine and blacking-out. Nope. I was going to siphon every last drop out of my one night in the city and revel in it even if I did start thinking that everyone I met was either famous or in the mafia. I can be a bit of a rube.
3. Amtrak is not Southwest Airlines. After a casual breakfast the next morning, I set-out on the twenty block walk to the train station. I could've taken a cab and made my scheduled departure with no problem but it was a beautiful day and I was feeling it so I decided to walk. There may have been a small part of me toying with the idea of just spending another day in the city and making new friends, especially when I was drinking that Bloody Mary around 19th Street but at some point I realized that I had to get the fuck out of there or I might never leave (alive).
Suffice it to say that I missed my train but I figured no one would notice because, as I was told at breakfast, there are a lot of trains heading south. Just out of curiosity I asked the guy at the counter how much it would cost to switch my ticket to the next available train and he told me it was something like $120 despite the fact that my original ticket only cost $50. Fuck that. I'd just get on the train and take my chances. (I cannot adequately express how much sense this made at time).
The conductor was a big dude and, when he checked my ticket and told me I was on the wrong train, he wasn't buying any part of my ignoramus routine. The bottom line was that I could get on the phone with Amtrak and pay the upgrade fee or get off at the next stop. I kind of screwed around for a few minutes thinking he might forget about me but, as the next stop came and went, he made it clear that he had not forgotten about me. I knew it was time to go when I realized that he really wanted to forcibly eject me from the train like it was his favorite part of the job and chucking my wise-ass was going to be especially gratifying. I literally thanked him for not doing that as I disembarked.
I got off the train somewhere in New Jersey thinking maybe I'd take the bus or something and it took about thirty seconds for me to realize that I was in the midst of one of the most stupid principled stands of my life (which is really saying something). So I went to the ticket counter and asked how much to Baltimore. Answer . . . $78. Yes!!! I win!!! Ten minutes later and I was back on the train making three new friends. Two were brothers who are house music DJ's and really seemed to like my suggestions (I can't believe they haven't called me). The other guy was sitting across from me and I spent an hour trying unsuccessfully to make him laugh until I finally asked him if he was ok at which point he informed me that he was laughing but had just had his jaw wired shut. I shit you not.
@GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
I'm like 87% sure that Paige Spiranac is trolling us here but I'll leave it for you to decide.
Let's get the obligatory part out of the way first which is the fact that I actually played TPC Sawgrass last March so, unlike all of these young pros who have only played it in May, I'm pretty much an expert. And yes I did hit the 17th green and two putt so eat it. I also gained a firsthand understanding for why I had always hated the course even before I played it. Because it's stupid. Much of it actually plays like a British Open course in a bad way because good shots get penalized so you need to avoid players who can't accept that life and golf are not fair which eliminates high-strung guys like Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau (though Bryson will definitely find a way to win this thing someday and it will involve him looking at the 17th green through a sextant).
I actually stumbled onto a pretty strong theory about The Players a few months ago when I was trying to fix the broken system for picking the U.S. Ryder Cup team (more on that next year). The results support the fact that the European players who have the highest winning percentages in the Ryder Cup also feel very comfortable at TPC Sawgrass. I'm not going to go too deeply into it but I will tell you that the Euros who have played in multiple Ryder Cups and have the highest winning percentages since 2002 are Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia and Francesco Molinari and every year from 2005 through 2017, at least one of those guys has finished top seven at The Players (except 2010 which was the weird year that Tim Clark won). Sergio and Stenson have won it and they, along with Luke Donald, have a slew of top three finishes. Oh yeah, Ian Poulter has two runner-ups, Alex Noren is two for two in making the top twenty and Tommy Fleetwood finished T7 last year.
So that's one avenue of attack this week. Here's another. Since they started playing at TPC Sawgrass in 1982, the margin of victory has been four or more strokes eleven times. Here is a sample of the players who have done it to prove my impending point: Henrik Stenson, Davis, Love, III (twice), Steve Elkington, Fred Couples, Greg Norman and Nick Price. What do those six guys have in common? Well, you wouldn't take a putting lesson from any of them but you'd sure as shit pause at the driving range to watch them smash balls. Sounds like Rory to me and I think we know that one of these years he's going to overpower this dog track and run away with it. Just not sure if this is the year because it might take some rain to make that happen and it's looking pretty clear in Ponte Vedra this week.
Rory, Sergio, Stenson, Molinari, Fleetwood ("Molywood") and Poulter are all blatantly obvious picks and so is Xander Schauffele considering he was a runner-up last year and he's like a longer version of Luke Donald who has proven that he plays best when it matters most. Beyond those guys I like Rafa Cabrera-Bello who fits the profile and has played well here along with Lucas Glover and Russell Knox who have also demonstrated success on occasion and that's all you can ask for on this pinball machine. If you want a deeper sleeper, take a flyer on Chesson Hadley who will either finish top twenty or miss the cut by ten shots.
Finally a few points about the favorites like Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose and Tiger. Don't do it. Maybe you roll the dice on Justin Thomas but don't come crying to me if we have a repeat of 2017 when Si Woo Kim strolled home while no top ten player in the world cracked the top ten of the leaderboard. And if you think that was a fluke, just ask Craig Perks, Tim Clark, Stephen Ames or 48 year old Fred Funk. Oh wait, three of those guys won it back when they used to play this thing in March. Never mind.
One and Done Pick: Tommy Fleetwood
Other Guy I'd Pick: Sergio Garcia
Sleeper Pick: Rafa Cabrera-Bello
DraftKings Top Ten Values
The list of players considered this week is sixty long because this event does not yield much repeat success other than the five or six previously covered. Maybe you can find some winning pattern in these results but, for the most part, it feels like throwing darts in the West Village after your seventh Baltic Porter.
THE TACO BELL FIFTH MOST POPULAR FAST FOOD CHAIN
IN AMERICA HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
Footnotes
* Actually one of the successful peaks of my life was as a B+ 10th grader. Little did I know that I had established my lifelong ceiling for achievement at that point.
** The other four guys to do it were Webb Simpson, Jason Day, Stephen Ames and Mark McCumber all of whom also fit the profile but not quite as obviously and frankly, sometimes I find it necessary to dumb it down for the new people. You're welcome.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
 |
| Need to get this picture up early in the post to make a good first impression. |
So without further ado, let me tell you about the three things I learned while in New York City last week to see John Mellencamp at the Beacon Theater. After all, "3" is the magic number this week and, if you don't believe me, just listen to Blind Melon explain it (I guarantee you'll be pleasantly surprised). Where was I? Right. Three things I learned:
1. Bars in Greenwich Village do not serve Bud Light. None of them. It's all craft this and artisanal that (and you can't spell "artisanal" without "anal"). I am now 100% convinced that the guy who came-up with the autumnal meade ad concept had just spent three days wandering the West Village in search of anything that wasn't an amber or a porter. He was probably on the verge of paying someone off Fyre Festival style before realizing that all he had to do was take a cab to the Dave & Buster's on West 42nd Street for all of the Bud Lights and pretzel dogs a man could want. (Note to the uninitiated: Taking your kids to the Dave & Busters on West 42nd Street to escape Times Square is like sticking your hand in the rotating blades of a lawnmower to make it quiet).
This mattered because I was in it for the long haul that day. My train left at 11:30 a.m. and I may or may not have had my first taste sitting outside of the Dunkin Donuts in Baltimore's Penn Station. Then I got a seat right next to the cafe car and hit it off swimmingly with Tim the proprietor. You can't just then interrupt that kind of momentum at 3:00 p.m. with a bunch of wheat beers and Belgian white ale. By then the pace has been set and you might as well switch to bourbon which leads me to . . .
2. I should never switch to bourbon. But what was I supposed to do at 1:00 a.m.? After trekking to the upper west side and watching Mellencamp roam around the stage for ninety minutes like a dad looking for his keys, we ended-up back in the Village and like hell if I was going to take the damn microbrew tour again. Not to mention, I was completely wired-up by the city. You gotta understand that where I live, the only reason you're still out at 1:00 a.m. on a Wednesday is if you're playing poker in the back of a dry cleaner. By that point, all of my local friends are three hours removed from folding their v-neck sweaters, chasing an ambien with red wine and blacking-out. Nope. I was going to siphon every last drop out of my one night in the city and revel in it even if I did start thinking that everyone I met was either famous or in the mafia. I can be a bit of a rube.
 |
| I could sense danger all around. |
Suffice it to say that I missed my train but I figured no one would notice because, as I was told at breakfast, there are a lot of trains heading south. Just out of curiosity I asked the guy at the counter how much it would cost to switch my ticket to the next available train and he told me it was something like $120 despite the fact that my original ticket only cost $50. Fuck that. I'd just get on the train and take my chances. (I cannot adequately express how much sense this made at time).
The conductor was a big dude and, when he checked my ticket and told me I was on the wrong train, he wasn't buying any part of my ignoramus routine. The bottom line was that I could get on the phone with Amtrak and pay the upgrade fee or get off at the next stop. I kind of screwed around for a few minutes thinking he might forget about me but, as the next stop came and went, he made it clear that he had not forgotten about me. I knew it was time to go when I realized that he really wanted to forcibly eject me from the train like it was his favorite part of the job and chucking my wise-ass was going to be especially gratifying. I literally thanked him for not doing that as I disembarked.
I got off the train somewhere in New Jersey thinking maybe I'd take the bus or something and it took about thirty seconds for me to realize that I was in the midst of one of the most stupid principled stands of my life (which is really saying something). So I went to the ticket counter and asked how much to Baltimore. Answer . . . $78. Yes!!! I win!!! Ten minutes later and I was back on the train making three new friends. Two were brothers who are house music DJ's and really seemed to like my suggestions (I can't believe they haven't called me). The other guy was sitting across from me and I spent an hour trying unsuccessfully to make him laugh until I finally asked him if he was ok at which point he informed me that he was laughing but had just had his jaw wired shut. I shit you not.
@GOLFBABES TWEET OF THE WEEK
I'm like 87% sure that Paige Spiranac is trolling us here but I'll leave it for you to decide.
THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS"It’s an awkward topic so I thought making it light would help address this problem for people out there." — @PaigeSpiranac Paige's tips for buxom women and dudes who need a mansiere: https://t.co/qlBKLbPuQF pic.twitter.com/rsD8BndXkI— Golf Babes (@golfbabes) March 7, 2019
Let's get the obligatory part out of the way first which is the fact that I actually played TPC Sawgrass last March so, unlike all of these young pros who have only played it in May, I'm pretty much an expert. And yes I did hit the 17th green and two putt so eat it. I also gained a firsthand understanding for why I had always hated the course even before I played it. Because it's stupid. Much of it actually plays like a British Open course in a bad way because good shots get penalized so you need to avoid players who can't accept that life and golf are not fair which eliminates high-strung guys like Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau (though Bryson will definitely find a way to win this thing someday and it will involve him looking at the 17th green through a sextant).
I actually stumbled onto a pretty strong theory about The Players a few months ago when I was trying to fix the broken system for picking the U.S. Ryder Cup team (more on that next year). The results support the fact that the European players who have the highest winning percentages in the Ryder Cup also feel very comfortable at TPC Sawgrass. I'm not going to go too deeply into it but I will tell you that the Euros who have played in multiple Ryder Cups and have the highest winning percentages since 2002 are Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia and Francesco Molinari and every year from 2005 through 2017, at least one of those guys has finished top seven at The Players (except 2010 which was the weird year that Tim Clark won). Sergio and Stenson have won it and they, along with Luke Donald, have a slew of top three finishes. Oh yeah, Ian Poulter has two runner-ups, Alex Noren is two for two in making the top twenty and Tommy Fleetwood finished T7 last year.
So that's one avenue of attack this week. Here's another. Since they started playing at TPC Sawgrass in 1982, the margin of victory has been four or more strokes eleven times. Here is a sample of the players who have done it to prove my impending point: Henrik Stenson, Davis, Love, III (twice), Steve Elkington, Fred Couples, Greg Norman and Nick Price. What do those six guys have in common? Well, you wouldn't take a putting lesson from any of them but you'd sure as shit pause at the driving range to watch them smash balls. Sounds like Rory to me and I think we know that one of these years he's going to overpower this dog track and run away with it. Just not sure if this is the year because it might take some rain to make that happen and it's looking pretty clear in Ponte Vedra this week.
Rory, Sergio, Stenson, Molinari, Fleetwood ("Molywood") and Poulter are all blatantly obvious picks and so is Xander Schauffele considering he was a runner-up last year and he's like a longer version of Luke Donald who has proven that he plays best when it matters most. Beyond those guys I like Rafa Cabrera-Bello who fits the profile and has played well here along with Lucas Glover and Russell Knox who have also demonstrated success on occasion and that's all you can ask for on this pinball machine. If you want a deeper sleeper, take a flyer on Chesson Hadley who will either finish top twenty or miss the cut by ten shots.
Finally a few points about the favorites like Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose and Tiger. Don't do it. Maybe you roll the dice on Justin Thomas but don't come crying to me if we have a repeat of 2017 when Si Woo Kim strolled home while no top ten player in the world cracked the top ten of the leaderboard. And if you think that was a fluke, just ask Craig Perks, Tim Clark, Stephen Ames or 48 year old Fred Funk. Oh wait, three of those guys won it back when they used to play this thing in March. Never mind.
 |
| This week's winner is in this picture. I'm sure of it but WHICH ONE?!? |
Other Guy I'd Pick: Sergio Garcia
Sleeper Pick: Rafa Cabrera-Bello
DraftKings Top Ten Values
Rory McIlroy
|
$10,800
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$9,100
|
Xander Schauffele
|
$9,000
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$8,800
|
Francesco Molinari
|
$8,600
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$7,800
|
Ian Poulter
|
$7,600
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
|
$7,400
|
Lucas Glover
|
$7,100
|
Russell Knox
|
$6,900
|
The list of players considered this week is sixty long because this event does not yield much repeat success other than the five or six previously covered. Maybe you can find some winning pattern in these results but, for the most part, it feels like throwing darts in the West Village after your seventh Baltic Porter.
THE TACO BELL FIFTH MOST POPULAR FAST FOOD CHAIN
IN AMERICA HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE CHART
DK Price
|
2018
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
|
Dustin Johnson
|
$11,400
|
T17
|
T12
|
T28
|
T69
|
T59
|
Justin Thomas
|
$11,100
|
T11
|
T75
|
T3
|
T24
|
DNP
|
Rory McIlroy
|
$10,800
|
MC
|
T35
|
T12
|
T8
|
T6
|
Tiger Woods
|
$10,500
|
T11
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
T69
|
DNP
|
Justin Rose
|
$10,200
|
T23
|
T65
|
T19
|
MC
|
T4
|
Brooks Koepka
|
$10,000
|
T11
|
T16
|
T35
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Rickie Fowler
|
$9,700
|
MC
|
T60
|
MC
|
1st
|
T77
|
Jon Rahm
|
$9,500
|
T63
|
T72
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Bryson DeChambeau
|
$9,300
|
T37
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jason Day
|
$9,200
|
T5
|
T60
|
1st
|
MC
|
DNP
|
Sergio Garcia
|
$9,100
|
70th
|
T30
|
T54
|
T2
|
3rd
|
Xander Schauffele
|
$9,000
|
T2
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jordan Spieth
|
$8,900
|
T41
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
T4
|
Tommy Fleetwood
|
$8,800
|
T7
|
T41
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Patrick Cantlay
|
$8,700
|
T23
|
T22
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Francesco Molinari
|
$8,600
|
MC
|
T6
|
T7
|
DNP
|
T6
|
Webb Simpson
|
$8,500
|
1st
|
T16
|
DNP
|
T66
|
MC
|
Tony Finau
|
$8,400
|
T57
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Hideki Matsuyama
|
$8,300
|
MC
|
T22
|
T7
|
T17
|
T23
|
Adam Scott
|
$8,200
|
T11
|
T6
|
T12
|
T38
|
T38
|
Patrick Reed
|
$8,100
|
T41
|
T22
|
MC
|
T24
|
MC
|
Matt Kuchar
|
$8,000
|
T17
|
82nd
|
T3
|
MC
|
T17
|
Paul Casey
|
$7,900
|
DNP
|
T22
|
T23
|
W/D
|
DNP
|
Phil Mickelson
|
$7,900
|
MC
|
T41
|
MC
|
MC
|
MC
|
Henrik Stenson
|
$7,800
|
T23
|
T16
|
MC
|
T17
|
T34
|
Louis Oosthuizen
|
$7,800
|
MC
|
T2
|
T28
|
T69
|
MC
|
Si Woo Kim
|
$7,700
|
T63
|
1st
|
T23
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Ian Poulter
|
$7,600
|
T11
|
T2
|
T57
|
T30
|
T65
|
Marc Leishman
|
$7,600
|
T63
|
MC
|
T64
|
T24
|
T23
|
Alex Noren
|
$7,500
|
T17
|
10th
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Charl Schwartzel
|
$7,500
|
T2
|
MC
|
DNP
|
T51
|
T48
|
Gary Woodland
|
$7,500
|
MC
|
T75
|
T28
|
MC
|
T11
|
Billy Horschel
|
$7,400
|
T37
|
MC
|
T28
|
T13
|
T26
|
Branden Grace
|
$7,400
|
T46
|
T48
|
T57
|
T42
|
DNP
|
Keegan Bradley
|
$7,400
|
T7
|
T60
|
T35
|
MC
|
MC
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
|
$7,400
|
T17
|
T4
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Charles Howell, III
|
$7,300
|
T17
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T56
|
MC
|
Martin Kaymer
|
$7,300
|
MC
|
T69
|
T39
|
T56
|
1st
|
Tyrell Hatton
|
$7,300
|
MC
|
T41
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Emiliano Grillo
|
$7,200
|
T37
|
11th
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kyle Stanley
|
$7,100
|
MC
|
T4
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
71st
|
Lucas Glover
|
$7,100
|
T72
|
T6
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
MC
|
Pat Perez
|
$7,100
|
MC
|
T22
|
DNP
|
T17
|
T48
|
Jimmy Walker
|
$7,000
|
T2
|
T56
|
MC
|
MC
|
T6
|
Kevin Kisner
|
$7,000
|
MC
|
T56
|
MC
|
T2
|
DNP
|
Zach Johnson
|
$7,000
|
T75
|
T48
|
T54
|
T13
|
T26
|
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
|
$6,900
|
T30
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
$6,900
|
T46
|
MC
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Russell Knox
|
$6,900
|
MC
|
MC
|
T19
|
T17
|
T34
|
Byeon Hun An
|
$6,800
|
T30
|
DNP
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Sungjae Im
|
$6,800
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Keith Mitchell
|
$6,800
|
T77
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Chesson Hadley
|
$6,700
|
T11
|
DNP
|
MC
|
T24
|
MC
|
Chez Reavie
|
$6,700
|
T30
|
T56
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Kevin Na
|
$6,700
|
T46
|
W/D
|
MC
|
T6
|
T38
|
Bud Cauley
|
$6,600
|
MC
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Jason Dufner
|
$6,600
|
T5
|
T60
|
T49
|
MC
|
T48
|
Ryan Palmer
|
$6,600
|
T23
|
MC
|
T23
|
MC
|
T59
|
Harold Varner, III
|
$6,500
|
T7
|
T35
|
T57
|
DNP
|
DNP
|
Brendan Steele
|
$6,300
|
T79
|
T6
|
T57
|
MC
|
T26
|
Footnotes
* Actually one of the successful peaks of my life was as a B+ 10th grader. Little did I know that I had established my lifelong ceiling for achievement at that point.
** The other four guys to do it were Webb Simpson, Jason Day, Stephen Ames and Mark McCumber all of whom also fit the profile but not quite as obviously and frankly, sometimes I find it necessary to dumb it down for the new people. You're welcome.
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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