Thursday, November 29, 2018

The FGR's Week 13 NFL Picks

The implementation of the new FGR Super System last week yielded some positive results as the 9-5-1 record got me back to even on the season. However, the system does seem to have one glaring blind spot as I was 0-3 in games where the visiting team was favored. I took the Steelers and the Jags giving points on the road and the Jets as home dogs and all of them failed me. So what do I get this week? That's right. Eight fucking road favorites which prompts me to ask yet again, why is life always trying to sweep my leg? Fortunately the Crane Technique is built into the Super System so I am prepared to deal with this.    

New Orleans by 7 at Dallas: The Pick - Saints

This line sure seems low but the Cowboys appear to have found an identity and the Saints are overdue for a stumble after covering nine straight games against the spread. (Nine straight? Is that right? Holy shit on a shingle!) However, don't underestimate how much Sean Payton wants to kick Jerry Jones' ass after working for that megalomaniacal goober as an assistant to megalomaniacal meathead Bill Parcells. The Brees express is going to roll for one more week before getting tripped-up in either Tampa or Carolina.  

Indy by 4 at Jacksonville: The Pick - Colts

I was recently taken to task by the
FGW for my objectification of
women on this site so . . . 
I adequately covered the woefulness of the Jaguars earlier this week here but then they added more woe by benching Blake Bortles in favor of Cody Kessler who could only underperform his predecessor if he throws a pass that kills a spectator and even then, it would depend on the spectator. The Jags drafted Bortles in 2014 right before the AFC South was preparing to go on a hapless run from 2015-2017 where its four teams would go a combined 45-75 against non-divisional opponents. That was their window and they miraculously came within a game of climbing through it last year but Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson have slammed that window shut . . . on their junk. 

Pittsburgh by 4 over the Chargers: The Pick - Chargers

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers have done most of their damage this season against sieve passing defenses like the Bengals (31st), Browns (29th), Bucs (27th), Falcons (26th) and Panthers (22nd). The Chargers have the 7th best passing defense and the 4th best scoring defense. Look for this game to be low scoring and close as Philip Rivers completes 42 out of 43 passes for 73 yards.   

Baltimore by 3 at Atlanta: The Pick - Falcons

Some are now questioning whether John Harbaugh will really go quietly into that good night at the end of this season if the Ravens find a way to win three of their next five and sneak into the playoffs. Those question askers should consider the following: Lamar Jackson has carried the ball 38 times in the last two games which would put him on pace for 304 carries over a 16 game season. Not sure that's sustainable . . . just ask the third string quarterback who's lower leg almost ended-up in the Potomac River after this hit by Haloti Ngata back in 2012. In those two games Jackson's passing numbers were 27-44 for 328 yards with 1 TD and 3 INT's. Oh and if you go with Jackson as the starter in 2019, your backup quarterback will count $26.5M against the cap unless you cut him and take the $16M hit (or sucker trade him to a certain team in northern Florida with no clue as to how the salary cap works).

The potential impending opportunities to coach Aaron Rodgers or even Baker Mayfield would have to look pretty appealing at this point. Harbaugh is from Ohio so the Browns job is not as far-fetched as you might think. Or maybe he does some television for a year while he negotiates a deal to replace Urban Meyer in 2020 so he can go overshadow his brother again. Who wouldn't root for that?        

Houston by 5 over Cleveland: The Pick - Texans

. . . this week we pay homage
to some bad ass ladies.
We have colliding forces here as the Browns are 2-1 since firing Hue Jackson and the Texans have won eight in a row against a schedule so soft that you'd gleefully wipe your ass with it. I am very gingerly picking the Texans here because I think their offense is about to shift into the gear it was in last year before Deshaun Watson got hurt. Also, Baker Mayfield is due for a bit of a stumble on the road before he ruins the playoff hopes of the Panthers and the Ravens (yes I am attempting to reverse jinx the shit out of this potentially dire situation).

Miami by 6 over Buffalo: The Pick - Dolphins

And thus we begin the annual run of rotating meaningless AFC East games. This week it's this dumpster dive. Next week we get the Jets at the Bills and then in week 17 we culminate with the slow wet fart that is the Dolphins at the Bills. (I've been eating a lot of chili this week and it's impacting more than just my writing much to the FGW's chagrin).  

Chicago by 4.5 at the Giants: The Pick - Bears

The Bears are second in scoring and rush defense which does not bode well for for my new fantasy football crush Saquon Barkley who, along with Drew Brees, Christian McCaffrey and Travis Kelce has vaulted the Jerkstore back into contention this season (like I ever left). I have long since stopped feeling shame for excelling at fantasy football because I have accepted that it might be the thing I'm best at relative to other members of humanity. That and pissing people off just by looking at them. I fucking rule at that. 

Carolina by 4 at Tampa Bay: The Pick - Bucs

Since beating the Ravens at home and announcing themselves as a Super Bowl contender, the Panthers have gotten blown-out in Pittsburgh, out-coached in Detroit and out-clutched at home against Seattle. Now everyone is all down on Riverboat Ron when all he's done is led his team to the playoffs four out of the last five years and made it to the Super Bowl in 2015. Just further proof that the expectations for guys named "Ron" are set higher than they are for guys named "Tom" or "Jason" or "Matt." I blame Ron Jeremy for raising the bar so to speak.  

Denver by 3.5 at Cincinnati: The Pick - Broncos

A significant element of the FGR Super System is point differential and the Bengals currently sit at -71 which is pretty awful for a team that's 5-6. But that doesn't begin to tell the whole putrid story as they've lost five of their last six and their point differential during that stretch is -94 which works-out to almost -16 points per game. Now Andy Dalton's out for the season and they're catching the Broncos coming-off wins over the Chargers and Steelers. Marvin Lewis is on his way out the door and the early favorite to replace him is Hue Jackson. Sorry Cincinnati. You're back to being the new Cleveland again.    

L.A. Rams by 9.5 at Detroit: The Pick - Lions

I highly recommend Battle of the Sexes
starring Emma Stone. Great ending.
Last week I picked the Bears to cover against the Lions with no clue that Mitch Trubisky was doubtful. I considered changing the pick on Twitter but then I thought why do that when (A) no one follows me on Twitter and (B) the primary reason for picking the Bears was their defense against Matthew Stafford. I was rewarded for my commitment when Matty Back Foot threw a pick-six in the 4th quarter and then another pick in the endzone that ended the game. 

Chase Daniel's rating for the game was almost 40 points higher than his overpaid counterpart. If I'm reading the numbers right, Stafford hits the Lions' cap for $100M over the next three years unless they cut him and then it would only be $79M. Might be time to short the Lions. Then again, it's always time to short the Lions.   

Green Bay by 14.5 over Arizona: The Pick - Cardinals

The Packers don't have a quality win since week one when they beat the Bears at home by a point. Since then they've beaten the Bills, Dolphins and 49ers. That's it. That's the list. Based on that, Green Bay shouldn't be giving two touchdowns to any team that didn't have a preseason bake sale to pay for their uniforms. 

New England by 6.5 over Minnesota: The Pick - Vikings

I still believe in the Vikings who might have the strongest resume of losses in the league (Saints, Rams, Bears and um the Bills). Sure they haven't actually beaten a winning team yet but that's why you get Kirk Cousins right? To give the appearance of being a good team without actually beating any good teams. Anyway, they don't have to win this game . . . just keep it close and, if that's your goal, Kirk's your man. I have no idea what I meant when I said I believed in the Vikings. That was so fifty words ago.  

Kansas City by 15 at Oakland: The Pick - Raiders

This is fair right?
Even if you give the Raiders no credit for home field advantage (which may be warranted), I still can't get this number to 15. Yes they're awful but they're not epically awful as evidenced by the fact that they've won two games or maybe more like one and a half considering they beat the Cardinals and the Browns. It just feels like the Chiefs are a bit overrated with a second year quarterback who turned the ball over five times in his last game and a defense that's allowing 26.7 points per game. They might also get caught looking ahead to the next three games against the Ravens, Chargers and the Seahawks in Seattle. They'll probably end-up winning this game by 40 but I can't give 15 points on the road. I just can't do it Jerry. I won't.

Seattle by 10 over San Francisco: The Pick - 49ers

Does it seem weird to anyone else that we have five teams favored by 9.5 or more this week and none of them are the Saints? I'm going underdog on all five because Vegas is clearly fucking with us after all five 9.5+ point favorites covered last week. I will not be knowingly fucked with. 

Tennessee by 9.5 over the Jets: The Pick - Jets

The Jets actually hung around with the Patriots for a while and almost converted a 4th and goal from the 3 yard line late in the 4th quarter that would have made it a 7 point game. Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel continues to invent ways to lose like handing the ball to his tight end on 4th and 1 from the 3 yard line. At least that absurd play call inspired our TWEET OF THE WEEK . . .

Philadelphia by 7 over Washington: The Pick - Eagles

The Redskins' decision to sign Reuben Foster who was recently released by the 49ers after his second domestic violence charge in the last ten months deserves a mention as he joins a team that already features Adrian Peterson who was suspended by the league in 2014 for child abuse. If you want to see the FGR get all preachy and serious, you can read what I wrote about that here . . . apparently I was feeling extra righteous when that went down. 

In recent history the Redskins have also acquired the services of Jeff George (asshole) and Albert Haynesworth (head stomper). And when they're not being sleazy on the field, they're allegedly doing it in the offseason by treating their cheerleaders like strippers and prostitutesAs a Ravens fan, I know I'm limited as to how many stones I can throw here but good lord Dan Snyder did you ever stop to think that running your business out of the back of the Bada Bing might be negatively impacting the results on the field? I'm sure holy roller Kirk Cousins couldn't wait to get the hell out of there (pun intended). I'll give them credit for one thing. They're the biggest scumbag organization in a division that includes the Cowboys. So they got that going for them. I guess.   

Last Week's Record: 9-5-1 . . . Overall Record: 39-39-3.

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