Saturday, November 3, 2018

The FGR's Week 9 NFL Picks

Let's start this week's late picks with the one I'm glad I didn't make . . . 

San Francisco by 3.5 over Oakland: The Pick (I almost made)- Raiders

My rationale was as follows: "I can't in good conscience (or even in bad conscience) give points with a team that let Josh Rosen come back to beat them last week and ended the game by snapping the ball ten feet over the quarterbacks head."

And that was before I knew that the 49ers were going to start their third string quarterback. This is why you can't gamble on bad NFL teams. They're bad for so many reasons ranging from shitty coaching (like the Raiders) to porous defenses (like the Raiders) to the worst bad team characteristic which is that they walk into most games with no expectation of winning and/or no desire to play the game at all (like the Raiders). In a related story, as of this moment, Jon Gruden has roughly nine years, ten months, four weeks and twenty-one days left on his contract. 

Minnesota by 5 over Detroit: The Pick - Vikings

Last year the Vikings went 13-3, averaged 23.9 points per game and had an overall scoring differential of +130 but determined that they were lacking in the passing game so they ditched all of their quarterbacks and blew the college fund on Kirk Cousins to upgrade their air game. Mission accomplished as they're now third in passing yards. The corresponding results speak for themselves as scoring is up a whopping .7 points per game, point differential is at +2 and their record is 4-3-1. (Um I think all of those numbers are worse). All of that notwithstanding, they're due for a convincing home win and the Lions could be on the verge of springing their annual oil leak.

Are the cheerleaders celebrating
Halloween this week or next
week? Let's hope it's both.
Kansas City by 8 at Cleveland: The Pick - Chiefs

In perhaps their most dysfunctional move yet (and that's REALLY saying something), the Browns decided to fire Hue Jackson and Todd Haley halfway through the most successful season they've had since 2014. Not that Jackson didn't deserve to be fired because he did and anyone who watched him sucking-up to Dez Bryant during his free agent visit on Hard Knocks had to wonder how he got hired in the first place. (There's a big difference between being a "player's coach" and a "I really need everyone to like me" coach). But why do it now? Because you were surprised that your 1-31 head coach wouldn't turn it around in seven games with a rookie quarterback? Here's a theory. By waiting, the Browns avoided having to pay two head coach salaries this year. So they sacrificed yet another rebuilding season because they're cheap. No one has it worse than Browns fans. No one.

Baltimore by 3 over Pittsburgh: The Pick - Ravens

The Ravens started the season with five of their first eight games on the road and they've now failed to cover three of their last four. This Sunday starts a three game stretch of home games (Steelers, Bengals and Raiders) that will make or break their season. If they go 0-3 or 1-2, then they'll have to go to Atlanta and Kansas City with a losing record and Joe Flacco may become the highest paid back-up in NFL history. I'm betting that doesn't happen so Flacco won't become the highest paid back-up in NFL history until next year.  

Carolina by 6.5 over Tampa Bay: The Pick - Panthers

Jameis Winston's run in Tampa Bay appears to have gone the way of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7. A poorly conceived idea that was introduced with a lot of hype and ended-up in flames. Apparently the Bucs can save a boat load of cash by not exercising his fifth year option which means that he could soon by coming to a team near you . . . New York. Jameis and Odell? A man can dream right? 

Miami by 2.5 over the N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Jets

We're currently having a bunch of rooms in our house painted. So far the painters have completed two of them and declared that both "took a lot more time than they thought they would" which I'm pretty sure every painter has said about every room . . . in every house . . . ever. Oh the Jets and the Dolphins? I got nothing on that.

"You made this room
bigger didn't you."
Washington by 1.5 over Atlanta: The Pick - Falcons

We need to start coming to grips with the potential reality that the Redskins are winning the NFC East. This week's game against the Falcons which will be played at the NFL's Answer to an Above-Ground Pool Field* is one of the few remaining tests on their schedule. The bright side is that just means we'll get to see them get blown-out at home by an NFC South team in the first round of the playoffs as Alex Smith goes 15-23 for 172 yards a pick and a touchdown. 

Chicago by 9.5 at Buffalo: The Pick - Bears

FGR wannabe Drew Magary recently asked the totally legitimate question "how in the fuck did so many teams pass on Patrick Mahomes?" The Chiefs were able to trade the 27th and 91st picks to move-up seventeen spots and take Mahomes 10th. That means that every team with a pick from 1-26 had a shot at him but decided to look elsewhere. That would include such quarterback starved teams as the Browns, 49ers, Jaguars and Cardinals but the real dumbass was Bills GM Doug Whaley who traded the 10th pick to the Chiefs because he apparently felt so positive about his quarterback combo of Tyrod Taylor and Nathan "The" Peterman that he didn't feel the need to take Mahomes. In a move that one would only expect from the Lake Erie vicinity, the Bills fired Whaley the day after the draft and two years later Derek Anderson is their starting quarterback.      

Denver by 1 over Houston: The Pick - Broncos

After handing the Giants their only win of the season, the Texans have reeled-off five straight wins against teams without winning records and the Broncos (3-5) present the opportunity to make it six. Are you feeling the Texans as a six win in a row kind of team? Yeah, me neither.

Seattle by 1 over the L.A. Chargers: The Pick - Seahawks

The painters seem a bit perplexed by my somewhat random work from home schedule as I rock several looks from the Suburban Hobo collection. Which brings us to the TWEET OF THE WEEK!

L.A. Rams by 1 at New Orleans: The Pick - Saints

The Rams were on the verge of being not undefeated last week but Ty Montgomery's boneheaded play caught the football gods off-guard thereby making this the week that the Rams would cease to be undefeated. That's just how it works. I don't make the rules. 

New England by 5.5 over Green Bay: The Pick - Patriots

In the movie Splash, Eugene Levy plays a scientist who is convinced that mermaids exist. He is met with obstacles at every turn despite the fact that he's right. During one scene, he is attempts to prove his theory be conducting deep sea research but has to quickly resurface because one of his two dimwitted assistants has placed one leg of his deck chair on the air hose. That's how Aaron Rodgers must feel on a weekly basis with teammates like Ty Montgomery and a coach like Mike McCarthy.   

Dallas by 5.5 over Tennessee: The Pick - Cowboys

Hey it's your Monday night match-up between two teams with losing records. It's getting old having to convince yourself that these games are worth watching because what else are you supposed to do on Monday night? Fret not as next week we get the Giants and the 49ers. Seriously.  


* Some of the writers I favor have this gimmick where they apply a nickname to a person, place or thing and then use that nickname instead of the real name for perpetuity. It's fun. For example, Governor of Maine Paul LePage is the "Human Bowling Jacket," Tomi Lahren is the "Walking Clothing Allowance" and Pennsylvania is "Fracksylvania." If you've ever had the distinct misfortune to attend an event at the NFL's Answer to an Above-Ground Pool Field, you know what I mean. Much like an above-ground pool it's hard to get in and out of, there is no room to walk around and the reason it's there is that the owners couldn't afford a real pool.  

Last Week's Record: 8-6 . . . Season Record: 14-13.

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