This losing is bullshit. In the month of January my NFL picks have gone 3-6-1 and my golf picks have been barely above-average thanks only to Rickie Fowler finishing 4th in a 34 player field. As my boy Mike is fond of saying, "IT'S TIME TO GET ORGANIZED!!!" (this is generally followed by a gin infused rant about how we're all going to die soon and then a reference to a sentimental Bryan Adams song about lost youth . . . it's a real pick me up). So this is me getting organized.
What you will find below is a chart of top 30 finishes over the past five years at the Farmers Insurance Open by every player you would conceivably want to wager on this week. (This took me 45 minutes to create on a day when I showed-up for work at noon). It's basically the same approach that has yielded dud picks the last two weeks but now it's in a more easy to digest format. Think of it as a Tide Pod* inside of a Cadbury Creme Egg. It'll still kill you, only now you'll have a good excuse for eating it.
I refuse to give-up on this process. When you look at how many guys have had repeated success on the same golf course over the past five years, you must draw the conclusion that the data can somehow be used to predict future results. Course preference has to matter. I play the majority of my golf on two courses and my scores are far better on one than the other. There, I proved it. I'm even better on two other local courses but I think that's because they each have a bar you pass five or six times during your round. (Not really relevant but no one said science can't be fun).
If you just went by the chart this week, you'd pick Brandt Snedeker and then get on with your day (not listed is the fact that he also won in 2012). However, Sneds has been a bit banged-up lately (no it's true) and he hasn't had a top ten since last February. That doesn't necessarily mean you should ignore him because his record at the Farmers is ridiculously good and he was healthy enough to play last week (missed cut) but recognize that he's about even money to get put down somewhere on the Saturday front nine like a lame horse on the backstretch. At least Jim Nantz would make it sound humane. "And were sorry to report that they had to shoot Brandt Snedeker on the seventh fairway. Now let's go out to Gary McCord in the tower at 16."
Tiger Woods is a somewhat similar prospect. He has won this tournament seven times and added a U.S. Open title on the Torrey Pines South Course.** If there is any hint of reality to this latest comeback, this week should be telling. My bet is that he intrigues us with a good score on Thursday, follows it with a decent Friday and then fades to somewhere in the mid 30's by the time we're done. Then the Tiger haters and the Tiger slurpers will both spin it in their favor and those of us who just want to sit back and watch it unfold over the course of the season will be tempted to stick divot tools in our jugular veins.
The trend from the chart that jumps-out at me (ahhh!!!) is Tony Finau improving from T24 to T18 to T4 over the last three years. Bombers tend to fare well at Torrey Pines so he's a logical choice. Not as obvious a pick would be the resurgent Kyle Stanley who played well here in 2016 and 2017 and had a win in the bag back in 2012 before spinning a ball back into the water on the 72nd hole and handing the tournament to Snedeker. DraftKings is practically giving Stanley away at $7,400 this week. That's goddamn bulletin board material right there. You gonna take that shit Kyle?!? They're saying John Huh at $7,500 is worth more than you this week. John Huh?!? That guy hasn't even played in a major since 2014. Come on Kyle . . . TIME TO GET FUCKING ORGANIZED!!!
The One and Done Pick: Tony Finau
Super Duper Sleeper: Harris English
The DraftKings Top Ten Values
Footnotes
* I mean for fuck's sake people I actually had to look at my ten year old daughter the other night and say "please don't eat laundry detergent." Maybe we really are overdue for the Apocalypse.
** I hate to blow too much smoke up Tiger's ass but the fact is that they couldn't fit all his tournament wins on his main Wikipedia page so you have to go to a whole separate page called List of Career Achievements by Tiger Woods if you want to see the list. And you need to go to a whole other page to see a list of his "off-course achievements" . . . HEYOOOO!!!
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
 |
| "We think the problem here is that you just haven't challenged the FGR enough." |
I refuse to give-up on this process. When you look at how many guys have had repeated success on the same golf course over the past five years, you must draw the conclusion that the data can somehow be used to predict future results. Course preference has to matter. I play the majority of my golf on two courses and my scores are far better on one than the other. There, I proved it. I'm even better on two other local courses but I think that's because they each have a bar you pass five or six times during your round. (Not really relevant but no one said science can't be fun).
If you just went by the chart this week, you'd pick Brandt Snedeker and then get on with your day (not listed is the fact that he also won in 2012). However, Sneds has been a bit banged-up lately (no it's true) and he hasn't had a top ten since last February. That doesn't necessarily mean you should ignore him because his record at the Farmers is ridiculously good and he was healthy enough to play last week (missed cut) but recognize that he's about even money to get put down somewhere on the Saturday front nine like a lame horse on the backstretch. At least Jim Nantz would make it sound humane. "And were sorry to report that they had to shoot Brandt Snedeker on the seventh fairway. Now let's go out to Gary McCord in the tower at 16."
Tiger Woods is a somewhat similar prospect. He has won this tournament seven times and added a U.S. Open title on the Torrey Pines South Course.** If there is any hint of reality to this latest comeback, this week should be telling. My bet is that he intrigues us with a good score on Thursday, follows it with a decent Friday and then fades to somewhere in the mid 30's by the time we're done. Then the Tiger haters and the Tiger slurpers will both spin it in their favor and those of us who just want to sit back and watch it unfold over the course of the season will be tempted to stick divot tools in our jugular veins.
The trend from the chart that jumps-out at me (ahhh!!!) is Tony Finau improving from T24 to T18 to T4 over the last three years. Bombers tend to fare well at Torrey Pines so he's a logical choice. Not as obvious a pick would be the resurgent Kyle Stanley who played well here in 2016 and 2017 and had a win in the bag back in 2012 before spinning a ball back into the water on the 72nd hole and handing the tournament to Snedeker. DraftKings is practically giving Stanley away at $7,400 this week. That's goddamn bulletin board material right there. You gonna take that shit Kyle?!? They're saying John Huh at $7,500 is worth more than you this week. John Huh?!? That guy hasn't even played in a major since 2014. Come on Kyle . . . TIME TO GET FUCKING ORGANIZED!!!
2017
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2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
2013
|
|
Jon Rahm
|
1st
|
||||
Brandt Snedeker
|
T9
|
1st
|
T19
|
T2
|
|
Jason Day
|
1st
|
T2
|
T9
|
||
Scott Stallings
|
T25
|
T2
|
1st
|
||
Tiger Woods
|
1st
|
||||
Charles Howell
|
T2
|
T16
|
T5
|
T9
|
|
K.J. Choi
|
2nd
|
T2
|
|||
Harris English
|
T14
|
T2
|
|||
J.B. Holmes
|
T6
|
T2
|
T23
|
||
Marc Leishman
|
T20
|
T27
|
T2
|
||
Keegan Bradley
|
T4
|
T16
|
|||
Tony Finau
|
T4
|
T18
|
T24
|
||
Justin Rose
|
T4
|
||||
Jimmy Walker
|
T4
|
T7
|
T4
|
||
Martin Laird
|
T8
|
T7
|
|||
Shane Lowry
|
T13
|
T7
|
|||
Nick Watney
|
T7
|
T4
|
|||
Brian Harman
|
T9
|
||||
Ollie Schnieds
|
T9
|
||||
Phil Mickelson
|
T14
|
||||
Kyle Stanley
|
T14
|
T25
|
|||
Fran Molinari
|
T14
|
||||
Brendan Steele
|
T20
|
T28
|
T27
|
||
Gary Woodland
|
T20
|
T18
|
T10
|
T27
|
|
Bill Haas
|
T19
|
T9
|
The One and Done Pick: Tony Finau
 |
| If there's one thing I know about the FGR faithful, it's that they love farmers. Great goddamn Americans that they are. |
Super Duper Sleeper: Harris English
The DraftKings Top Ten Values
Justin Rose
|
$10,600
|
Jason Day
|
$9,400
|
Brandt Snedeker
|
$9,000
|
Tony Finau
|
$8,700
|
Charles Howell
|
$8,300
|
Aaron Wise
|
$7,600
|
Kyle Stanley
|
$7,400
|
Harris English
|
$7,400
|
Fran Molinari
|
$7,400
|
C.T. Pan
|
$6,900
|
Footnotes
* I mean for fuck's sake people I actually had to look at my ten year old daughter the other night and say "please don't eat laundry detergent." Maybe we really are overdue for the Apocalypse.
** I hate to blow too much smoke up Tiger's ass but the fact is that they couldn't fit all his tournament wins on his main Wikipedia page so you have to go to a whole separate page called List of Career Achievements by Tiger Woods if you want to see the list. And you need to go to a whole other page to see a list of his "off-course achievements" . . . HEYOOOO!!!
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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